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After an injury-plagued 2022 season, the Twins front office has prioritized depth at multiple positions when building the 2023 roster. That included trading fan favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez last winter. With the move, the Twins pushed Bailey Ober, an established big-league starter, to the sixth spot on the rotational depth chart behind Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. Mahle and Maeda were returning from injuries, so there was some question as to whether or not injuries would impact the rotation before the team headed north from Fort Myers.
Minnesota stayed healthy this spring and decided against a six-man rotation to begin the year. Ober headed to Triple-A, and Mahle and Maeda occupied the rotation's final two spots. Teams can never have too much pitching, and that adage has shown to be true during the 2023 campaign. Mahle was limited to five starts before needing Tommy John surgery. Maeda headed to the injured list with a right triceps strain and missed 51 games. Minnesota's rotation continued to thrive, but the rigors of a 162-game season might mean the timing is right to revisit the idea of a six-man rotation.
Joe Ryan's imminent return from the IL is just one of the reasons the Twins are considering a six-man rotation. Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half before becoming home run-prone in the second half. Eventually, he admitted to the team that he was dealing with a groin injury. Dallas Keuchel filled his roster spot and has seen mixed results during his Twins tenure. Keuchel's performance will play a prominent role in the team's plan for a six-man rotation, but more on that later.
Other pitchers' performances are pushing the Twins toward considering a six-man rotation. Bailey Ober has already passed his career high in innings pitched and hasn't looked nearly as sharp in recent outings. Over his last five starts (24 IP), he has allowed 16 earned runs in 24 innings pitched with 26 strikeouts and seven walks. Home runs have been one of the most significant issues, as he has surrendered six home runs, and opponents have posted a .953 OPS against him. To manage his workload, the Twins can shift to a six-man rotation, giving him fewer starts during the stretch run.
Kenta Maeda has been one of the Twins' best pitchers in the second half, with a 3.46 ERA and a 53-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just under 42 second-half innings pitched. However, he is the oldest pitcher in the rotation and is in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. If the Twins want Maeda to be 100% in October, it might be best to give him time to recuperate between starts the rest of the way.
Sonny Gray was an All-Star in the first half and compiled some video game numbers in the process. He hasn't looked as sharp in recent outings, especially in the third time through a line-up. Gray's ERA is 1.7 runs higher in innings 4-6 than innings 1-3 and jumps to a 12.60 ERA in innings 7-9. Batters have a .507 OPS against Gray during their first plate appearance and a .670 OPS in the second and third time facing him. In the playoffs, starters are usually pulled after five innings or fewer, so this might work in Gray's favor down the stretch.
So, who is available to fill the sixth rotation spot? The Dallas Keuchel experiment has seen some positive results, with the Twins winning two of his first three starts. He took a perfect game into the seventh inning against a lowly Pirates line-up after getting blown up by the Phillies in his previous start. Minnesota's leash with Keuchel is likely short, but Louie Varland has also performed well at Triple-A. If neither fits into the rotation, they are both options to move to a bullpen role for the stretch run.
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