The Timing Is Right for Twins Shift To a Six-Man Rotation

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have talked about a six-man rotation since spring training. In the season's final weeks, the timing might be suitable for the team to execute this strategy and put the team in a better position for the playoffs.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

After an injury-plagued 2022 season, the Twins front office has prioritized depth at multiple positions when building the 2023 roster. That included trading fan favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez last winter. With the move, the Twins pushed Bailey Ober, an established big-league starter, to the sixth spot on the rotational depth chart behind Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. Mahle and Maeda were returning from injuries, so there was some question as to whether or not injuries would impact the rotation before the team headed north from Fort Myers. 

Minnesota stayed healthy this spring and decided against a six-man rotation to begin the year. Ober headed to Triple-A, and Mahle and Maeda occupied the rotation's final two spots. Teams can never have too much pitching, and that adage has shown to be true during the 2023 campaign. Mahle was limited to five starts before needing Tommy John surgery. Maeda headed to the injured list with a right triceps strain and missed 51 games. Minnesota's rotation continued to thrive, but the rigors of a 162-game season might mean the timing is right to revisit the idea of a six-man rotation. 

Joe Ryan's imminent return from the IL is just one of the reasons the Twins are considering a six-man rotation. Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half before becoming home run-prone in the second half. Eventually, he admitted to the team that he was dealing with a groin injury. Dallas Keuchel filled his roster spot and has seen mixed results during his Twins tenure. Keuchel's performance will play a prominent role in the team's plan for a six-man rotation, but more on that later. 

Other pitchers' performances are pushing the Twins toward considering a six-man rotation. Bailey Ober has already passed his career high in innings pitched and hasn't looked nearly as sharp in recent outings. Over his last five starts (24 IP), he has allowed 16 earned runs in 24 innings pitched with 26 strikeouts and seven walks. Home runs have been one of the most significant issues, as he has surrendered six home runs, and opponents have posted a .953 OPS against him. To manage his workload, the Twins can shift to a six-man rotation, giving him fewer starts during the stretch run. 

Kenta Maeda has been one of the Twins' best pitchers in the second half, with a 3.46 ERA and a 53-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just under 42 second-half innings pitched. However, he is the oldest pitcher in the rotation and is in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. If the Twins want Maeda to be 100% in October, it might be best to give him time to recuperate between starts the rest of the way. 

Sonny Gray was an All-Star in the first half and compiled some video game numbers in the process. He hasn't looked as sharp in recent outings, especially in the third time through a line-up. Gray's ERA is 1.7 runs higher in innings 4-6 than innings 1-3 and jumps to a 12.60 ERA in innings 7-9. Batters have a .507 OPS against Gray during their first plate appearance and a .670 OPS in the second and third time facing him. In the playoffs, starters are usually pulled after five innings or fewer, so this might work in Gray's favor down the stretch. 

So, who is available to fill the sixth rotation spot? The Dallas Keuchel experiment has seen some positive results, with the Twins winning two of his first three starts. He took a perfect game into the seventh inning against a lowly Pirates line-up after getting blown up by the Phillies in his previous start. Minnesota's leash with Keuchel is likely short, but Louie Varland has also performed well at Triple-A. If neither fits into the rotation, they are both options to move to a bullpen role for the stretch run. 

Will a six-man rotation benefit the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and join the discussion. 

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[specialiststeve]

Would make perfect sense... that is why Rocco will likely not do it. ;) 

[saviking]

How bought we solve our middle reliever problem in the play offs by going with a six man rotation. Two starters sharing 7 or 8 innings per game leaving 2, one or none relief innings.. 

[TopGunn#22]

I could see the 6 man rotation being a good move through the rest of the season.  Certainly with a 5 game lead the Twins have the cushion to give it a try.  I just don't want to see SP removed from a game they are pitching well in at the 73 or 78 pitch mark "just because."  

Once the post season rolls around, provided Joe Ryan is back to pre All Star Game form (and that's a big "if") I would go with Gray, Lopez, Ryan and Ober as the SP and move Maeda and Keuchel to the BP.  The Dodgers were very successful using Maeda as a SP in the regular season and moving him to the BP come post season.  His postseason pitching stats are outstanding, primarily as a BP pitcher.  

[DJL44]

A six game lead with 33 games left helps. I'd rather see the Twins clinch early and then give everyone a rest. Win both series vs Cleveland and they can do whatever they want the rest of the season. I wouldn't mind if the rotation the last week of the season was Ryan, Maeda, Keuchel, Varland, and a bullpen game.

[jorgenswest]

Is the timing right moving into the two series with Cleveland?

In a 5 man rotation it should line up as Maeda, Lopez and Gray in the first series followed by Lopez, Gray and Ryan in the second series?

What does it look like in a 6 man rotation?

Is the rest from a 6th starter more important than throwing your best atms against Cleveland?

I am not a believer that an extra day of rest is as beneficial as a skipped start. I would suggest that it might be better to win the Cleveland series and close out the division early. Once secured give any of the starters real rest to end the season.

edit: had I noticed I would have simply liked what DJL44 said much more succinctly. 

[Blyleven2011]

A six man rotation  would only give the pitcher an extra day of rest where a skipped turn would give them plenty of rest to rest the arm fatigue  ...

Pitchers like to stay on a routine  so it's hard to determine  what is the right  direction  ...

extra day of rest or skipped turn , they would benefit both ways ...

we have the depth to do this so every consideration should be taken to keep our starters fresh and healthy  ....

[D.C Twins]

Agreed!

[HarmonK03]

Someone please explain this fascination with Keuchel.  Yes he had one good outing, but his command has not been real good including in AAA.  Why do we want to count on him, this is not the 2017 version of Keuchel.  How is his stuff going to play out of the bullpen, it won't.  Can we try and raise the bar at some point and find and develop pitchers who can contribute.  We have guys in St. Paul that should be brought up and see if they can contribute, there is more upside than throwing Keuchel out there, release him now.

 

[USAFChief]

Another day, another "six man rotation" piece.

Some things never change.

 

[darwin22]

44 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Someone please explain this fascination with Keuchel.  Yes he had one good outing, but his command has not been real good including in AAA.  Why do we want to count on him, this is not the 2017 version of Keuchel.  How is his stuff going to play out of the bullpen, it won't.  Can we try and raise the bar at some point and find and develop pitchers who can contribute.  We have guys in St. Paul that should be brought up and see if they can contribute, there is more upside than throwing Keuchel out there, release him now.

 

Not posting as a member of the Dallas Keuchel "fan club," but have to mention that he absolutely EARNED his promotion from AAA as his command was pretty darn good as evidenced by these numbers over 6 starts:

IP:  32

ER allowed:  4

ERA: 1.13

K to BB:  28/12

WHIP: 1.25

Opp BA:  .233

IMO Keuchel has earned a spot with the Twins at this point either as a member of a 6-man rotation or in a role to bolster Ober who's pitched the most innings in his career this season.   Keuchel is a professional PITCHER still in 2023.  His start in PHI was brutal, but his other 2 starts were good to above average.   

Just asking---------who at SP right now would be a better option than Keuchel?

[HarmonK03]

23 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Not posting as a member of the Dallas Keuchel "fan club," but have to mention that he absolutely EARNED his promotion from AAA as his command was pretty darn good as evidenced by these numbers over 6 starts:

IP:  32

ER allowed:  4

ERA: 1.13

K to BB:  28/12

WHIP: 1.25

Opp BA:  .233

IMO Keuchel has earned a spot with the Twins at this point either as a member of a 6-man rotation or in a role to bolster Ober who's pitched the most innings in his career this season.   Keuchel is a professional PITCHER still in 2023.  His start in PHI was brutal, but his other 2 starts were good to above average.   

Just asking---------who at SP right now would be a better option than Keuchel?

Two options, Varland or Funderburk to start.  I have to believe they could give the same production with more upside.  All the reports I read was he was struggling with his command in St. Paul, now I didn't see any of his games I am only going off what I heard.

[arby58]

11 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

Would make perfect sense... that is why Rocco will likely not do it. ;) 

Given how 'inept' many find him, it's amazing he has a .526 winning percentage as a manager. Must be a lot of inept managers in MLB.

[Johnny Ringo]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

Given how 'inept' many find him, it's amazing he has a .526 winning percentage as a manager. Must be a lot of inept managers in MLB.

I am not a Rocco hater nor apologist but records in the AL Central need to come with an asterisk, a caveat and maybe even a legal disclaimer. Rocco has hugely benefitted over his managerial career from a historically bad division. 

[darwin22]

On 8/26/2023 at 12:11 PM, karcherd said:

Two options, Varland or Funderburk to start.  I have to believe they could give the same production with more upside.  All the reports I read was he was struggling with his command in St. Paul, now I didn't see any of his games I am only going off what I heard.

Not intending to get into a p*ssing match, but in case you missed it----Keuchel more than proved his status to stay on pitching staff today with his 5 shutout innings in relief of Ober.  As for Varland, he had 3 consecutive good starts for SP in August, but his most recent start (8-22) was a stinker vs. Omaha ( 4IP, 7 runs, 4 ER with 6 hits allowed and 3 walks).  Funderburk as a starter?  He's not started a game this year.  Soley used as a RP--and a very good one for the Saints this season.

[Nine of twelve]

Keuchel and Ryan are fresher than the other four right now so I would be more inclined to keep those two on regular rest and give each of the other four one skipped start. The team is currently rostering six starters. I think the rules would allow Ober to be optioned today, enabling us to add another reliever right now, and with the roster expansion taking effect on Friday he could be reinstated at any time. With a skipped turn his next start would be around September 8. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The 6 man rotation is absurd to me.  We do not win the game the other day without Keuchel coming out of the pen.  No ifs and or buts.  If a pitcher needs and off day we can swap Keuchel in there.  Giving out big dogs one start off in the coming month is more useful that creating a 6 man rotation.