Did the Twins Mishandle Bailey Ober in 2023?

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, wabene said:

He was the only one with options. How would you have handled that? 

Since we knew he was on inning limit, I would have started him in the Pen, going a couple of innings a time, and then moving him to starter when he was needed. Seems pretty simple. I mean having a major league pitcher pitch in the minors doesn't seem like the a good plan, regardless of options.

[wabene]

17 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I don't understand fully though why Ober isn't able to build up enough endurance/strength to get to the 175 inning mark. 

His innings pitched the last three year were 108, 72 and 139 this year. It is commonly thought that it takes years to build up a starter to a full work load. With that in mind he would not be limited next year if he can finish this year healthy, but maybe it's just too much to go from 72 to 180.

[wabene]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Since we knew he was on inning limit, I would have started him in the Pen, going a couple of innings a time, and then moving him to starter when he was needed. Seems pretty simple. I mean having a major league pitcher pitch in the minors doesn't seem like the a good plan, regardless of options.

Maybe, but is he suited to the bullpen role? Would jerking him back and forth mess up his development? I don't know. It didn't work with Dobnak. Yes Bailey is not Dobnak. 

The fact that for once the Twins had an abundance of starters at the beginning of the year should be seen as a positive. It should be hard for good players to make the big club. 

I don't see Bailey in the pen. He seems to take a while to get rolling. During his time early this year in AAA he was going shorter than he would've been able to with the Twins which did limit his innings some. I still think it was handled well. He has pitched less innings than Gray and Lopez, which was the goal. 

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, wabene said:

Maybe, but is he suited to the bullpen role? Would jerking him back and forth mess up his development? I don't know. It didn't work with Dobnak. Yes Bailey is not Dobnak. 

The fact that for once the Twins had an abundance of starters at the beginning of the year should be seen as a positive. It should be hard for good players to make the big club. 

I don't see Bailey in the pen. He seems to take a while to get rolling. During his time early this year in AAA he was going shorter than he would've been able to with the Twins which did limit his innings some. I still think it was handled well. He has pitched less innings than Gray and Lopez, which was the goal. 

Game 1 Lopez went 5 1/3, there was two innings available for him there, or game two Gray went 5 there was 2 or 3 innings available. Game 4 Mahle went 5, game 6, game 6 Maeda went 5.

There were innings for him in the beginning is what I am saying, without jerking him around.  He started 4 games in the minors and went 17 2/3 innings, what is the difference he was going 2 or 3 in the pen in 5 or 6 games compared to 4 in 17?

I respect your opinion, I just think he was a better option than Pagan, ALcala, Moran or Sands, and if you look back I said it then.

 

[IndianaTwin]

I think they've handled him well. 

I also think that having him in St. Paul gives them maximum flexibility going forward.

1. They've now reached the point where they could bring him back up without needing an injury to do so. By putting him on the IL, they'd be committing to not using him until next Tuesday. 
2. At St Paul, they can give him another start or two to make sure he stays stretched out for continued usage as a starter in either the regular season or postseason.
3. Or, and particularly if Ryan and Maeda continue to look the part as starters 3 and 4 for the playoffs, St. Paul is the best place to transition to the pen in a structured way, with x number of pitches on x number of days' rest, etc. 

[wabene]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Game 1 Lopez went 5 1/3, there was two innings available for him there, or game two Gray went 5 there was 2 or 3 innings available. Game 4 Mahle went 5, game 6, game 6 Maeda went 5.

There were innings for him in the beginning is what I am saying, without jerking him around.  He started 4 games in the minors and went 17 2/3 innings, what is the difference he was going 2 or 3 in the pen in 5 or 6 games compared to 4 in 17?

I respect your opinion, I just think he was a better option than Pagan, ALcala, Moran or Sands, and if you look back I said it then.

I respect your opinion as well. I think there is a difference. The innings difference from your example while slight is still a difference. So you go from full starts in MLB, to shorter starts in the minors, to the even shorter outings in your example. So from 5-6 innings to 2 innings? Does he stay stretched out? More than that it is a different mindset and preparation. They were carefully grooming what had been a valuable but fragile asset for a role as a full time starter. I think there is some nuance there that is critical. Of course just my two cents which I also offered in real time as well.

[kenbuddha]

5 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Now, was anyone else concerned when Joe Ryan went back out to pitch yesterday after an hour rain delay? How does that affect his arm? I'm not sure I would have sent him back out, especially since the Twins have an off day today and the relievers are pretty fresh anyway.

From what I read on The Athletic (comments section somewhere) Ryan was simulating the game throughout the rain delay. So he didn't go from sitting in the clubhouse to the mound.

[Doctor Gast]

Twins seems to think that they can't limit Ober's innings unless he's pitching AAA. IMO that's a waste of Ober's arm down down in AAA. They need to set a reasonable rythym with Ober & keep him there throughout the season from start to finish, using long relief (piggyback). Not sending him down in the beginning then bring him up to try to see how many 7+ inngs he can pitch then send him down to AAA again.

Limiting Varland innings in long relief has done wonders for him.

[Road trip]

47 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 

Limiting Varland innings in long relief has done wonders for him.

Varland is a good example.  He's also a pitcher that the Twins have allowed to experience rather large inning jumps.

2019: 63 innings (mostly college)
2020: covid... who knows how much he threw, but no official game action.
2021: 103 innings
2022: 152 innings
2023: 140 and counting... 

Varland is younger, throws harder, and yet is significantly smaller in stature than Ober.  Yet nobody seems concerned about his jump in workload?  

You could look at other starters when they were younger... Pablo Lopez, for example.  Or just about anybody from the Cleveland organization: Bieber, McKenzie, Civale, etc... you are going to see some big inning jumps in their younger days.

Ober is a different story.  Every player is unique.  Maybe increasing the innings load is a real problem for his physique, somehow.  I just hope Ober can get the opportunity to shine under a full load in the next couple of years.

[twinstalker]

8 hours ago, bloomwcjkl said:

It isn't like he pitched 200 innings from 100 last year.

Well, it sort of is.  140 vs 73.  Guessing I'm not the first to point that out.

[twinstalker]

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

...he has logged some minor league time. It won't change his arbitration eligibility or when he becomes a free agent.

Unless I forgot about MLB and MLBPA getting rid of super 2 for arbitration, it certain does matter.  He came into the year with 1 year, 124 days.  Super two this last time was a few days over that, but it varies.  The demotions have cost Ober a bit of money, not to mention the salary difference between mlb and aaa.

[twinstalker]

I don't mind the Twins pitching him a lot, because, hey, he's 28 and needs to build up innings.  The way to do that is to pitch regularly and not be coddled into the playoffs.  If he tires, shut him down.

But I do not understand demoting him.  Put him on the IL, then perhaps a rehab start, similar to Ryan.  But if the Twins/Saints get 155-160 IP from him this year, including playoffs, that's more than we could have expected and a fine number as he heads into next season.

The five-year average for the Super Two cutoff is 2 yrs, 124 days, and coincidentally, that's exactly what Ober would have been at had he spent the whole year in the majors (after last year: 1 yr, 124 days).  And actually, of the 180-185 days of the MLB season, a player only needs 172 to get to a full year.  Keeping him down as they did for 24 days to start this 184 day season would have reduced his service time to 2 yrs 112 days had he finished out the season.  While that was very likely under the super two status this offseason, this recent demotion made sure of it.   

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Game 1 Lopez went 5 1/3, there was two innings available for him there, or game two Gray went 5 there was 2 or 3 innings available. Game 4 Mahle went 5, game 6, game 6 Maeda went 5.

There were innings for him in the beginning is what I am saying, without jerking him around.  He started 4 games in the minors and went 17 2/3 innings, what is the difference he was going 2 or 3 in the pen in 5 or 6 games compared to 4 in 17?

I respect your opinion, I just think he was a better option than Pagan, ALcala, Moran or Sands, and if you look back I said it then.

 

If the Twins believe that Ober will be a starter, then sending him to St. Paul was the correct move.  Working an inning or three every few days doesn't prepare him for starting.

And, while I'm here, mentioning service time as a reason for sending Ober to St. Paul is grasping at straws.  A month in the minors isn't going to impact a player like Ober who will have a very nice career in the majors.

[bird]

Let’s take a more overall view of this. As a 12th round pick in 2017, would even his agent or his mom think that his 4.4 WAR, which exceeds the NEXT highest in his round by 3.1 WAR, is anything less than a resounding success? Don’t you think Bailey Ober is grateful to this organization? He hasn’t been mishandled at all! He’s been handled beautifully. Kudos to him, and kudos to the organization!

[weitz41]

---

You can tear this apart whichever way suits you.

2022 11 starts 56 innings of 2.92 era and 1.054 Whip. Outstanding but injuries were the limiting factor.

2023 22 starts 122.2 innings of 4.10 era and 1.133 Whip. Still good numbers for a #4 starter.

2024............30 starts 180 innings? I hope they built him up for that kind of workload.  huh....

The point is it seems obvious to me. This isn't the only season to expect and hope for good to great results from Ober. Signing Blake Snell to a contract is a little different then asking 180 innings out of Ober after 56 in 2022. 200 innings of max effort just don't happen if they ever did. So no, they haven't mishandled Baily Ober IMO.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Road trip said:

Varland is a good example.  He's also a pitcher that the Twins have allowed to experience rather large inning jumps.

2019: 63 innings (mostly college)
2020: covid... who knows how much he threw, but no official game action.
2021: 103 innings
2022: 152 innings
2023: 140 and counting... 

Varland is younger, throws harder, and yet is significantly smaller in stature than Ober.  Yet nobody seems concerned about his jump in workload?  

You could look at other starters when they were younger... Pablo Lopez, for example.  Or just about anybody from the Cleveland organization: Bieber, McKenzie, Civale, etc... you are going to see some big inning jumps in their younger days.

Ober is a different story.  Every player is unique.  Maybe increasing the innings load is a real problem for his physique, somehow.  I just hope Ober can get the opportunity to shine under a full load in the next couple of years.

Not sure stature has anything to do with it, but my guess is Varland is relieving in order to manage his innings.

agreed on the observed innings increases for Varland being big jumps and worthwhile to track.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Road trip said:

Varland is a good example.  He's also a pitcher that the Twins have allowed to experience rather large inning jumps.

2019: 63 innings (mostly college)
2020: covid... who knows how much he threw, but no official game action.
2021: 103 innings
2022: 152 innings
2023: 140 and counting... 

Varland is younger, throws harder, and yet is significantly smaller in stature than Ober.  Yet nobody seems concerned about his jump in workload?  

You could look at other starters when they were younger... Pablo Lopez, for example.  Or just about anybody from the Cleveland organization: Bieber, McKenzie, Civale, etc... you are going to see some big inning jumps in their younger days.

Ober is a different story.  Every player is unique.  Maybe increasing the innings load is a real problem for his physique, somehow.  I just hope Ober can get the opportunity to shine under a full load in the next couple of years.

Last year Ober was put on the fast track & he got injured early. This year he was put on a slower  track which have kept him healthy but it was vastly larger work load which wore out his arm. Next year I expect more innings from Ober & more as he builds up arm strength in following years if brought along responsibly

[Nine of twelve]

Sending him to St. Paul was not a true demotion. Everyone knew his effectiveness had faded and I think it’s nearly certain that he was fatigued. Putting him on the AAA roster is kind of like a rehab assignment without being on the IL first. If we go deep enough in the postseason we’ll need a fourth starter and he’s it. He’s getting the rest he needs so he can be ready when the time comes. 

[Rosterman]

Nope, better that he gave the Twins what he did at the major league level than toiling all season at St. Paul and making only a couple of starts. The Twins can now pencil him in as a surething in 2024 and push him towards 150+ innings.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, Road trip said:

Varland is a good example.  He's also a pitcher that the Twins have allowed to experience rather large inning jumps.

2019: 63 innings (mostly college)
2020: covid... who knows how much he threw, but no official game action.
2021: 103 innings
2022: 152 innings
2023: 140 and counting... 

Varland is younger, throws harder, and yet is significantly smaller in stature than Ober.  Yet nobody seems concerned about his jump in workload?  

You could look at other starters when they were younger... Pablo Lopez, for example.  Or just about anybody from the Cleveland organization: Bieber, McKenzie, Civale, etc... you are going to see some big inning jumps in their younger days.

Ober is a different story.  Every player is unique.  Maybe increasing the innings load is a real problem for his physique, somehow.  I just hope Ober can get the opportunity to shine under a full load in the next couple of years.

Ober's lack of innings pitched has always been because of injuries, not the Twins artificially limiting his innings (until this year). He's going to break the 140 innings mark this year. He won't have any limits put on him next year. The opportunity is there for him as long as he stays healthy.

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, tborg said:

For every Bert Blyleven there was an Eddie Bane, a Mark Fidrych, and numerous other more obscure pitchers who lost effectiveness due to overuse.  There is a reason modern day FO manage their pitchers carefully.  As this article points out, it remains a challenge to figure out the best way to do this for each pitcher and situation.  The option of pulling a successful pitcher early in the game to limit innings is obviously not popular.  I am surprised that the 6 man rotation never came to fruition, but there are reasons for that too (room for fewer relievers, pitchers preference for more regular work, etc.)

Eddie Bane threw 168 big league innings over 3 seasons and 881 professional innings over 7 seasons.  I fail to see where overuse comes into play.  I also fail to to understand how a sentence can be constructed that contains both Eddie Bane and Mark Fidrych.

[twinstalker]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I also fail to to understand how a sentence can be constructed that contains both Eddie Bane and Mark Fidrych.

"Eddie Bane's incompetence in 1976 stood in stark contrast to Mark Fidrych's remarkable rookie season."

Or

"Mark Fidrych and Eddie Bane both made their major league debut at age 21."

Or

"On the mound Eddie Bane was constantly have conferences with his catcher and pitching coach, while Mark Fidrych was constantly have conferences with the baseball in his hand."

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If the Twins believe that Ober will be a starter, then sending him to St. Paul was the correct move.  Working an inning or three every few days doesn't prepare him for starting.

And, while I'm here, mentioning service time as a reason for sending Ober to St. Paul is grasping at straws.  A month in the minors isn't going to impact a player like Ober who will have a very nice career in the majors.

So 4 starts and 17 innings is way different than pitching 2 to 3 innings ever few days? I would never have pitched him for 1 inning, that would be misuse as well.

Everybody knew for at least one time though the rotation starts would be shorter, everybody knew Maeda would be limited in his first few starts (5,6,2,3). All I am saying is there was an opportunity to stretch him out and limit his innings without spending the first and last month of the season not pitching in the majors. And to be honest I wouldn't have allowed him to get to 140 innings this year prior to 8/28.

[jorgenswest]

It is absolutely fair that the Twins utilize the few opportunities they have to option any player. 

I don’t believe the extra day of rest is any lasting benefit so no to a 6 man rotation. I suggested they give him a rest when the Twins had a 2 week stretch where they could have gone with 4 starters. They could have optioned him then.

Rocco was asked about Ober in relief. I believe the concerns the amount of time he needs to get ready to pitch as well as being able to go back to back days.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, but realistically it would have been Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Kuechel. It would have been giving regular season innings to Varland (and not rostering both Sands and Winder) reducing regular season innings to Gray/Lopez/Ryan in order for Gray/Lopez/Ryan to have more gas in the tank for the post season.

Considering the Twins aren’t just walking away with the division right now, and it’s still a slight possibility that Cleveland catches up, not diluting the rotation and not putting more stress on the bullpen was the right call.

I agree with your point, but the discussion is a bit more nuanced

One missing nuance is Maeda…….

Reducing innings is a way to help keep guys fresh but skipping starts is the real way to get it done.

Ryan to IL for his leg got him 3 skipped starts or about 2 plus weeks completely off. Currently doing the same with Ober, if not longer than 2 weeks.

Kuechel & Maeda have no innings build up this year because of their limited use over April-June.

Lopez & Gray probably get 1 skip each once we get to the last 3 series……a couple more weeks.

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Not sure stature has anything to do with it, but my guess is Varland is relieving in order to manage his innings.

agreed on the observed innings increases for Varland being big jumps and worthwhile to track.

He’s relieving to bring a hard throwing effective pitcher into our Pen to help us win games!! Period.

Continuing to be a starter in St. Paul is just practice……his innings doing that for next 2 weeks would be meaningless from a productivity standpoint.

They need help in the Pen & he’ll provide it along with Funderburk.

 

[Whitey333]

IMO Ober has been somewhat mishandled.  Also IMO his demotion was made as much to hamper his major league service time as anything.  Yes he could have been put on IL with a tired arm.  Teams do it all the time.  And as far as having to be injured to be on IL, look how many times "injured" Twins players magically disappear from the 10 or 15 day disabled list into relative obscurity.  Unfortunately the Twins have a long history of manipulating a players service time.  I can't help but wonder if this isn't at least part of the reason.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

23 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Really good article. The Twins will need Ober in 2024 and while I'm sure Ober would prefer to be with his buddies and contributing more as the season rushes to a conclusion, with the playoffs looming, the FO has made the correct moves for the team and frankly, for Baily Ober's career. Now, was anyone else concerned when Joe Ryan went back out to pitch yesterday after an hour rain delay? How does that affect his arm? I'm not sure I would have sent him back out, especially since the Twins have an off day today and the relievers are pretty fresh anyway.

In the Athletic I asked Dan Hayes about Joe Ryan going back out to pitch after an hour delay. In response, Dan posted that he shared my concern about the risk of injury, until he found out that Ryan had been pitching some under the stadium during the rain delay. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

17 hours ago, kenbuddha said:

From what I read on The Athletic (comments section somewhere) Ryan was simulating the game throughout the rain delay. So he didn't go from sitting in the clubhouse to the mound.

That makes perfect sense. Thanks Ken.

[IndianaTwin]

22 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

…..  Unfortunately the Twins have a long history of manipulating a players service time.  I can't help but wonder if this isn't at least part of the reason.

Who? I’m not necessarily disagreeing — I’m just not aware of times when they’ve done so?