I Wasn’t the Only One Who Was Wrong About Royce Lewis

[Cody Christie]

Royce Lewis is developing into a superstar, with big moments finding him on a weekly basis. Looking back at his path to the big leagues, multiple evaluators, including myself, doubted him along the way.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve written about Twins baseball since 2010 and ranked the team’s prospects throughout the past 14 seasons. It’s impossible to get everything right when evaluating young players in an organization. There were prospects I ranked highly that never put it all together, and others have exceeded expectations.

Royce Lewis is one of the players who I thought had flaws in his game that would become more evident as he moved up the organizational ladder. It’s becoming more apparent that I was wrong about Mr. Lewis, but I wasn’t the only one who doubted him over the last six years. 

All three national prospect rankings placed Lewis among the baseball’s top-10 prospects entering the 2019 season. He would stay highly ranked through the pandemic, but multiple ACL tears meant he dropped to 40th or lower on the national lists. In December 2019, I asked if the Twins could fix Lewis’ swing. Entering the 2022 season, I wrote that Lewis’ stock was falling and included him with the likes of Keoni Cavaco and Blayne Enlow. Those are just a few examples of articles where I doubted the team’s top prospects at the time. Here is how some of the national writers were wrong about Lewis.

MLB Pipeline: During the 2022 season, MLB Pipeline ranked Lewis as baseball’s number 46 prospect. It was the first time he dropped out of their top 20 since being drafted by the Twins. As part of their rankings, they considered that he would miss another 12 months after reinjuring the same ACL that kept him out the previous season. It was a tough pill to swallow for Twins fans and Lewis, but he stayed positive, and the results speak for themselves during the 2023 season. 

What They Said At the Time: “The main variance might be with his hit tool. He spent most of 2019 struggling being on time at the plate as he utilizes a big leg kick and has a busy swing, leading to a loss of approach.” Lewis is hitting above .300 for his big-league career with a 137 OPS+, so it seems his approach is working even with the amount of time he has missed during his career. 

The Athletic: Keith Law has been a prospect writer for ESPN and The Athletic for decades after working in the Toronto Blue Jays front office. Throughout Lewis’s professional career, Law continued to rank the shortstop among his top 100 prospects while pointing out the player’s flaws on both sides of the ball. Law might have been right about moving Lewis off shortstop, but his evaluation of Lewis’s swing has not been correct. 

What They Said At the Time: “Before the 2019 season, he adopted a high leg kick and big hand movement, but instead of driving the ball more he would bail out more often and make weak contact on stuff away. The Twins have worked with him to get him more online so he can work toward the middle of the field, making better quality contact and letting him use his legs more often. Lewis is rough at shortstop, with all of the athleticism and speed to play there but well below-average actions and instincts.” Lewis has shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields and continues to showcase a powerful swing that wasn’t anticipated when the Twins originally drafted him. 

FanGraphs: Like the evaluations above, the Fangraphs prospect team felt there were flaws to Lewis’s swing that would limit his overall value. Despite an MVP AFL performance, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel felt Lewis needed to get better at pitch recognition and eliminate some elements of his swing. 

What They Said At the Time: “Lewis still clearly had issues. His swing is cacophonous — the big leg kick, the messy, excessive movement in his hands — and it negatively impacts Lewis’ timing. He needs to start several elements of the swing early just to catch fastballs, and he’s often late anyway. This also causes him to lunge at breaking balls, which Lewis doesn’t seem to recognize very well, and after the advanced hit tool was a huge driver of his amateur profile, Lewis now looks like a guess hitter.” Lewis has hit for average and power during his first 50+ games in the big leagues, and the Twins hope his new approach will make him a middle-of-the-order hitter for the next decade. 

What other national outlets were wrong about Lewis? Can he continue to perform at this level throughout his big-league career? Which prospects have you been wrong about in the past? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Doctor Wu]

Hey, no harm in being wrong, or even just plain dubious that Lewis would turn into a sold MLB player. I lot of us were wondering when or if Lewis would become the player we hoped he would become. After all those injuries he endured I too had become a bit skeptical that he would even become an everyday player. Ha! So happy to have those worries evaporate! Sure, it's still early in the process, but what an impressive season so far! If Lewis can stay healthy he should become a perennial All-Star caliber player. Go Twins!

[Oldgoat_MN]

Excellent article. I, too, had concerns and continued to wish we has taken MacKenzie Gore.

Heading into the playoffs this year I will be very happy to see Royce on the field for our team.

Go Twins!

 

[weitz41]

I'm in the same boat as not being that high on Lewis. The hit tool and injuries just made me skeptical he would ever be anything close to what he has been this season. Another grand slam yesterday. 3 in 8 games?

I'd try to blame it on the Buxton injury trauma but even I'm not buying that anymore...

Well, my crow is almost done..

[Karbo]

The true test for Royce will come during a full season. Can he stay healthy? Can he make adjustments as pitchers adjust to him? How will he handle that ugly slump that all players have at some point? I think he has the tools and the attitude to succeed, but time can sometimes be a messy equalizer.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Thank you for the honesty in the article.

My only comment is that it may be a little early to make this call.  We only need to look back at Jose Miranda to see what anointing players to early in the career looks like. 

[CRF]

There's no doubt he looks pretty damn good right now. It's still early, and a very small sample size. Let's see him get a full season at this level and see what happens. It's all about adjustments. There's nothing I'd want more for him, than to stay healthy, and deliver like he's been doing since he got to the majors. 

[SockNet]

Seems like all these reviews were base on the swing. Whether it was the Twins Org or Lewis himself, he ditched the leg kick. He is fairly quiet at the plate. Were there any prospect reviews after this happedned that were more encouraging? 

 

[Linus]

People are always in a rush to judge prospects. To compare Royce to Cavaco and Enlow is plain ridiculous. It’s also way too early to anoint him the next superstar - let him get 1000 at bats and then make a judgment. 

[GNess]

Early or not everyone has to concede that Lewis has the traits of a special player.

[Nine of twelve]

Cody, don’t be too hard on yourself. We all overthink things sometimes. I’m just happy for myself as a fan, for all Twins fans, for the team, and for Royce Lewis himself. Let’s just enjoy it.

[Dman]

Lewis was happily at the top of most boards and being fast tracked through the system until 2019 where he didn't perform well with the bat.  The High leg kick and hands movement caught a lot more scrutiny after that.  He lost the Covid year and then 2021 to injury. He only played a months worth of games at AAA in 2022 and then was injured again.  There never was a large enough sample size for Lewis to gain his prospect status back and he also was getting older which knocks your status down as well.

I think this is just a case where he was stuck with that one bad year and not enough time after that bad year to re-evaluate.  IIRC most of those sources made caveats like "The swing can be changed over time for the better"  or He still has a ton of talent but is not passing the eye test on the bat right now.  He continued to rank high on boards but with no data to back him up for several years I can understand why he dropped and with the initial questions left unanswered why there was a lot more uncertainty about his future outcome.  

Royce Lewis never gave up on Royce Lewis and after a lot of adversity he is finally seeing all the hard work he put in pay off.  Happy to see him playing well. The Twins need a star player and hopefully he is one of many on the way.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I never doubted him because of his extremely positive, infectious attitude, which is his main attribute. 

[KikiMN]

Royce is one of the young guys making this team fun to watch! I hope he becomes an elite player, but until then, enjoy watching this star shine. 

[madtowntwin]

I think there's more than a little "Buxton Carryover" going on here...Two players with immense talent to change the game when healthy and in the lineup. Yet, we as fans, are more than a little traumatized by how injury has flattened the curve in regard to the careers of these two players. "Show Me" pessimism is easy result and response....Royce's faith is his body's recovery and innate talent is now on display as we all watch in wonder with held breath and crossed fingers. Oh to have Lord Byron roaming center field, galloping the base-paths, and crushing home runs again....Win Twins. 

[D.C Twins]

Guilty as charged, When he had his rough season in the minors with a sky high SO/BB ratio, I was quite vocal about my concerns. 

While he is not going to continue to hit 3 GS every 8 days, I think we've seen enough to know that he will be a very good baseball player and leader. 

Now if he demonstrates the abilities to rapidly make adjustments to inevitable pitcher adjustments, he will be special 

[Doctor Gast]

28 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I never doubted him because of his extremely positive, infectious attitude, which is his main attribute. 

Since the 1st time I heard him speak, I've been very high on Lewis. Even during his experimenting and his injuries, I knew he'd find his way.

[Seth Stohs]

I'd have to go look, but I don't think I ever ranked Lewis lower than #1 in any prospect ranking... The athleticism and talent were always off the board. Was always just a matter of health. 

[Vanimal46]

I was very skeptical of Lewis in 2019 when he was a sub .700 OPS player in AA. He’s done much better than I expected, but I’m still not ready to crown him a star. The sample size is still too small. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I never doubted him because of his extremely positive, infectious attitude, which is his main attribute. 

 

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Since the 1st time I heard him speak, I've been very high on Lewis. Even during his experimenting and his injuries, I knew he'd find his way.

May 2018, I was on a work trip in Iowa and made the jaunt to Clinton to see the Kernels. Box score says there were 1,125 fans, but I'm not buying it. I'd guess 700, tops, and I got a seat immediately behind the Kernels dugout.

My memory from the night is that all the Kernels were considerate enough to the bat boys, including to the bat boy who appeared to be mildly affected by Down Syndrome.

Except Lewis. He went out of his way to ask each bat boy his name, engaged them in genuine conversation and greeted them by name the next time he came up.

Total class.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Since the 1st time I heard him speak, I've been very high on Lewis. Even during his experimenting and his injuries, I knew he'd find his way.

Same. His character,  drive,  determination and love of the game always spoke more to me than his OPS at AA. To me it was always just a matter of time and health for him. And I feel the same about Jenkins. He has the same traits as Royce, and if he stays healthy, I imagine he'll move rather quickly.

[jkcarew]

 Even as of today, he’s really only played two seasons…and one was pretty bad.

I doubted the bat. And I don’t want to draw conclusions on 220 MLB PA, but it sure is encouraging. He doesn’t look to be a ‘great’ on-base guy…looks more like an RBI guy. Not interested in working the count…hacking at the first thing he likes…and good at it (so far). He’s a 3-4-5 hitter in my book…depending upon how the BA/OBP capabilities play out. You need to put a good hitter behind him…or at least a big power threat. But, Puckett-like in his aggressiveness at the plate.

Still think 3rd base is dumb.

[roger]

We are all finally seeing the Royce Lewis he knew he was, when healthy.

Is it possible that he is the best player in the game?  Except we fans haven't seen him play enough to realize it?  I don't know.  Maybe?

[RpR]

If his fielding can equal his current hitting, he is a good one.

Next year will determine if he is up to the level some think he is at.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

I'd have to go look, but I don't think I ever ranked Lewis lower than #1 in any prospect ranking... The athleticism and talent were always off the board. Was always just a matter of health. 

I think you are correct Seth. You have been extremely high on Lewis. Your wonderful audio interviews give all of us opportunities to hear and see the intangibles of the prospects who you interview. Thank you for your extraordinarily effective efforts to provide this additional information to all of us at TD.

[jrod23]

I have an inkling this is the Royce we see in the playoffs and years to come.  I love it.  Puckett handed the reigns to Hunter.  We haven't had that charismatic elite talent since then.  I want him to have a corner locker and hold it down for years to come...but it is early in his career.  I'm just excited at what I see in front of us. 

[twinstalker]

This article acts like it's over, that everything's been decided.  Pitchers are going to start getting him out at some point, this year or next.  That's extremely likely.  Do we write another article about who's right or maybe instead let it play out to determine how good he is?

The Twins have exactly five years left with Lewis after this (barring a trade or huge overpay...because Boras).  The current moment is exciting to see and provides hope for the next few years.  That should be where we're at, not who's right and who's wrong, as pitchers are getting their first looks at him, and the book is being written.