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I’ve written about Twins baseball since 2010 and ranked the team’s prospects throughout the past 14 seasons. It’s impossible to get everything right when evaluating young players in an organization. There were prospects I ranked highly that never put it all together, and others have exceeded expectations.
Royce Lewis is one of the players who I thought had flaws in his game that would become more evident as he moved up the organizational ladder. It’s becoming more apparent that I was wrong about Mr. Lewis, but I wasn’t the only one who doubted him over the last six years.
All three national prospect rankings placed Lewis among the baseball’s top-10 prospects entering the 2019 season. He would stay highly ranked through the pandemic, but multiple ACL tears meant he dropped to 40th or lower on the national lists. In December 2019, I asked if the Twins could fix Lewis’ swing. Entering the 2022 season, I wrote that Lewis’ stock was falling and included him with the likes of Keoni Cavaco and Blayne Enlow. Those are just a few examples of articles where I doubted the team’s top prospects at the time. Here is how some of the national writers were wrong about Lewis.
MLB Pipeline: During the 2022 season, MLB Pipeline ranked Lewis as baseball’s number 46 prospect. It was the first time he dropped out of their top 20 since being drafted by the Twins. As part of their rankings, they considered that he would miss another 12 months after reinjuring the same ACL that kept him out the previous season. It was a tough pill to swallow for Twins fans and Lewis, but he stayed positive, and the results speak for themselves during the 2023 season.
What They Said At the Time: “The main variance might be with his hit tool. He spent most of 2019 struggling being on time at the plate as he utilizes a big leg kick and has a busy swing, leading to a loss of approach.” Lewis is hitting above .300 for his big-league career with a 137 OPS+, so it seems his approach is working even with the amount of time he has missed during his career.
The Athletic: Keith Law has been a prospect writer for ESPN and The Athletic for decades after working in the Toronto Blue Jays front office. Throughout Lewis’s professional career, Law continued to rank the shortstop among his top 100 prospects while pointing out the player’s flaws on both sides of the ball. Law might have been right about moving Lewis off shortstop, but his evaluation of Lewis’s swing has not been correct.
What They Said At the Time: “Before the 2019 season, he adopted a high leg kick and big hand movement, but instead of driving the ball more he would bail out more often and make weak contact on stuff away. The Twins have worked with him to get him more online so he can work toward the middle of the field, making better quality contact and letting him use his legs more often. Lewis is rough at shortstop, with all of the athleticism and speed to play there but well below-average actions and instincts.” Lewis has shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields and continues to showcase a powerful swing that wasn’t anticipated when the Twins originally drafted him.
FanGraphs: Like the evaluations above, the Fangraphs prospect team felt there were flaws to Lewis’s swing that would limit his overall value. Despite an MVP AFL performance, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel felt Lewis needed to get better at pitch recognition and eliminate some elements of his swing.
What They Said At the Time: “Lewis still clearly had issues. His swing is cacophonous — the big leg kick, the messy, excessive movement in his hands — and it negatively impacts Lewis’ timing. He needs to start several elements of the swing early just to catch fastballs, and he’s often late anyway. This also causes him to lunge at breaking balls, which Lewis doesn’t seem to recognize very well, and after the advanced hit tool was a huge driver of his amateur profile, Lewis now looks like a guess hitter.” Lewis has hit for average and power during his first 50+ games in the big leagues, and the Twins hope his new approach will make him a middle-of-the-order hitter for the next decade.
What other national outlets were wrong about Lewis? Can he continue to perform at this level throughout his big-league career? Which prospects have you been wrong about in the past? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.







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