Edouard Julien Provides Ample Value at Second Base Despite Defensive Shortcomings

[Cody Schoenmann]

Despite the pleas of many to move him off the position, the Twins appear inclined to keep Edouard Julien at second base for at least the rest of the 2023 season and potentially long-term. Here is why I think that is the right decision.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Watching Edouard Julien hit is a joy. Julien works counts, doesn't swing at balls outside of the zone, almost to a detriment to himself, and drives pitches to all sides of the field with power and authority. 

Watching Julien play defense earlier this season was a different story. Julien showed limited range, a below-average arm, evidenced by his 17th-percentile arm strength, and the ability to make relatively easy plays look difficult. 

Despite repeatedly demonstrating defensive shortcomings, that hasn't stopped the Twins from putting Julien at second base on nearly an everyday basis. Not only do the Twins continue to deploy Julien at second base, they have taken drastic measures while doing so. They asked Jorge Polanco, who had been the Twins starting second baseman since 2020, to shift over to third base. 

The Twins will not move Julien off of second base in 2023, and it wouldn't be rash to think he is the Twins' best option for the future too.

Understandably, most who follow the Twins will find that statement ludicrous. Julien's defensive limitations have cost Twins pitchers several times. Whether not being able to field somewhat routine plays cleanly or struggling to turn double plays, opposing teams have capitalized on Julien's defensive miscues by extending innings and scoring opportunities.

While this was the case earlier in the season, Julien appears to be turning a corner defensively. The routine plays don't feel like such a struggle, double plays are getting turned more consistently, and his range seems to be expanding, as shown by this highlight play he made against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday.

To be clear, Julien will likely never become an above-average fielder at second base. But he is becoming at least passable, especially when considering his bat.

Historically, second base has been a lackluster offensive position, highlighted by power deficiency and the inability to impact the game like other position players. While things have changed, especially with current second basemen Marcus Semien, Nolan Gorman, and more breaking the mold and hitting for power, second base remains a relatively offensively deficient position. 

Like Semien and Gorman, Julien is another example of a player breaking the mold of what a second baseman can do with the bat. Maybe in time, he can hit like Brian Dozier or Jeff Kent. 

Here are Julien's offensive numbers compared to the league average for second baseman:

On-Base Percentage (OBP)
League Average - (.319)
Julien - (.378)

Slugging Percentage (SLG)
League Average - (.397)
Julien - (.479)

Isolated Power (ISO)
League Average - (.145)
Julien - (.198)

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
League Average - (.293)
Julien - (.383)

Weighted On Base Average (wOBA)
League Average - (.312)
Julien - (.371)

wRC+
League Average - (97)
Julien - (140)

Julien is above league average in all six advanced analytics provided. Also, Julien is over 50 points higher than the league average in every statistic besides wRC+, where he is 43 points higher. 

The only statistic that Julien is worse than the league average is Strikeout Percentage (K%). The league average K% for second baseman is 19.8%, while Julien currently owns a K% of 29.8%. 

Julien possesses the offensive profile of a left-handed hitting first baseman. Applying this profile at the traditionally offensively-deficient position of second base provides excellent value, even if it comes at the expense of below-average defensive performance. 

Although Julien is a below-average defender at second base that doesn’t mean he is unplayable at the position. Here is how Julien ranks compared to other Twins second baseman when it comes to Outs Above Average (OAA) this season:(Note: An Average OAA is Zero (0))

• Kyle Farmer (1 OAA)
• Julien (-3 OAA)
• Polanco (-5 0AA)

Surprisingly, Julien has been a better defensive second baseman than Polanco this season and is just a little behind Farmer. 

Despite being a slightly-worse defender than Farmer, like most second-base options in Major League Baseball, he has been a significantly better offensive option. Opting for marginal defensive improvement over above-average offensive production at a below-average offensive position makes no sense, and the Twins decision makers appear to agree. 

Moving Julien to a position like first base, left field, or designated hitter does make sense, but demoting him to a position so low on the defensive spectrum diminishes the significant value his bat provides while playing second base.

With the return of Royce Lewis imminent, the Twins' infield will become even more crowded. Carlos Correa will continue to play shortstop as long as he is healthy, but the remaining defensive positions will remain a rotating door. 

Benching Julien when facing a left-handed pitcher in favor of Polanco or Farmer while having Lewis play third base is logical, and the Twins should continue doing so. But when facing right-handed pitching, the Twins need to continue playing Julien at second base, even if it comes at the expense of benching veteran players like Polanco and Farmer. 

Julien's above-average offensive production at second base and improving defense warrant him to be the primary second baseman for the rest of the 2023 season.

Does Julien providing above-average offensive production at second base outweigh his defensive shortcomings? Comment below. 

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[tony&rodney]

I agree with the title of the post. Julien does need to keep hitting and having good at bats though. Decreasing the strike out rates as well would be nice. He has cooled off a bit and the Twins need him to be a force at the plate. Finally, pushing him down to the nine hole, but still starting, makes sense against left-handed pitchers. There are benefits of having Julien in the lineup on a full time basis. His long at bats are annoying for opposing pitchers which can have positive benefits for those who come to the plate after Julien. 

[Kenny Powers]

Good read.  A lot of info that I was wondering about.  Right now his bat is certainly good enough to play almost anywhere.  But I couldn't help but raise my eyebrows when I saw his BABIP was almost 100 points above average.  I think we can all agree that probably won't hold up.  So...we shall see.  Keep playing him until when (or if) we find someone better.

It seems like the Twins keep ending up with guys who are sort of postionless (Steer, CES, Julien) or at best poor defenders...

[killertwinfan]

Wow, interesting narrative.  Just imagine if we had this wisdom last year.  Arraez would be firmly entrenched as our second baseman and we would have had to use different assets to acquire Lopez.  

[nclahammer]

Good insights and information.  I like (King) Julien at 2B.

[CTDookie]

When Lewis returns, I’d move Julien to 1st, drop Gallo, move Polanco back to second and put Lewis at 3rd.

[Trov]

This was the same debate we had with Polanco at SS years ago.  Do we deal with subpar defense for better offense?  For this year, I would say overall yes, because we do not have a clear better option, but long term no because we should have better options on defense with similar offense profile.  2nd should be filled by Lee or Lewis with the other playing 3rd for years to come, or until CC needs to move to 3rd, but either way 2nd should be filled by one of them.  Julien should be moved off 2nd, or we should look to shop him like we did Arraez.  

I know people went crazy for Julien after his crazy hot stretch, but if you go outside his crazy hot stretch in July he has been just slightly above average, and in August he has been well below average at the plate. Clearly adjustments against him has been made, and he needs to adjust.  I never go head over heals for rookies that have a hot stretch SSS.  I am not saying he will not be a good hitter, he has all the makings of it, but there are many a hitter we over value in rookie years. 

I do hope umps stop ringing him up on balls clearly outside the zone.  Many strike outs are on called strike 3 when they are well outside the box on the broadcast.  Many times on pitches way inside or outside.  Maybe getting the robo umps or challenges next year will help that. 

[farmerguychris]

I would like to see some other statistics that tell us how good he is defensively at 2B.  He's improving and we obviously need his bat in the lineup - but exactly how bad is he, and how much is his D improving as the season moves on?  Would love to keep him at 2B long term because we have enough depth now and in the future already for DH and 1B.

[Karbo]

Leave him at 2nd for now. Give him some time to adjust. Word is that he's a hard worker, so I expect improvement.

[GeorgiaBaller]

Seems to be a common narrative--great bat and poor glove at 2nd base-----hmmmm--I think we have heard that before.  This team has to improve their Defense and they don't do that with Julien at 2nd.

Move Julien to DH.  He has enough slugging to make sense in the DH spot and he is too short with average wingspan to play first.  

a healthy Polanco to 2nd.  This off-season the Twins decide if they extend Polanco or try to ride Brooks Lee at 2B in the future.

Lewis to 3rd when he returns

Now for a little controversy.  Buxton apparently cannot return to the OF because of his knee issues, but he is floundering at DH---he needs to be in the rhythm of the game fielding a position.  DH is not for everyone and Buxton is very much a rhythm and feel player.  Play a taller, flexible, long armed Buxton at 1B.  He or Kirilloff are often injured, but they can share time at 1B or plug in full time while the other is hurt.  It would take some glove and footwork training for Buck, but he is more than capable of handling.  Having him play DH has really been a failed experiment.

I like Julien and this team needs bats, but poor fielding, limited range defenders is something the Twins don't have the run production to cover for.

 

[DJL44]

57 minutes ago, killertwinfan said:

Wow, interesting narrative.  Just imagine if we had this wisdom last year.  Arraez would be firmly entrenched as our second baseman and we would have had to use different assets to acquire Lopez.  

They don't get Lopez without giving up Arraez. Doesn't happen.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, killertwinfan said:

Wow, interesting narrative.  Just imagine if we had this wisdom last year.  Arraez would be firmly entrenched as our second baseman and we would have had to use different assets to acquire Lopez.  

That may be what you want, but Miami specifically targeted Arraez for obvious reasons. This is an Arraez for Lopez like it or lump it situation. Good on the front office for digging in their heels and getting the 2 prospects. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

32 minutes ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

Now for a little controversy.  Buxton apparently cannot return to the OF because of his knee issues, but he is floundering at DH---he needs to be in the rhythm of the game fielding a position.  DH is not for everyone and Buxton is very much a rhythm and feel player.  Play a taller, flexible, long armed Buxton at 1B.  He or Kirilloff are often injured, but they can share time at 1B or plug in full time while the other is hurt.  It would take some glove and footwork training for Buck, but he is more than capable of handling.  Having him play DH has really been a failed experiment.

I’m not sure if this makes sense or not, but it isn’t a terrible idea to try (for NEXT year).  Buxton as DH isn’t really working out.  Given his personality, I’m not surprised that his being involved in the game is important to his success and first base is a way to get him more involved than anyone except the P and C.  It would undoubtedly take some work on his part, as he hasn’t been asked to play 1B before but he is nothing if not a great athlete and would pick up some footwork and infield glove work relatively quickly.  

That being said, is that really easier on his body than playing CF?  He would no longer have long intense runs after balls in the gap, but he would have many, many more plays that require a short burst of speed, possibly a dive, and quick stop.  Those aren’t easy on the body either, but I defer to someone who might know a bit more about Buxton’s specific issues to answer that.  

[terrydactyls]

I like the Buxton at 1B idea with one caveat.  Will his knees hold up if he's at 1B?  I have two bad knees (both to be replaced over the next year) and the discomfort is greatest when I pivot.  Think of getting out of a car.  If you are the driver, you put your left foot flat on the ground perpendicular to the car and twist your body to get out.  This type of movement causes me a lot of discomfort (and sometimes sharp pain).  Now think about playing 1B.  On any ground ball or low line drive, the first step is either pivoting towards the ball or towards 1B.  Either one would be painful to me.  Or holding a runner on, you either twist to make a tag on a pickoff move or twist to get into fielding position.  Either one would make me grimace.  I'm just not sure that 1B is as pain free as you would imagine if it's your knees that are your concern.

Submitted in pain, Terrydactyls.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, killertwinfan said:

Wow, interesting narrative.  Just imagine if we had this wisdom last year.  Arraez would be firmly entrenched as our second baseman and we would have had to use different assets to acquire Lopez.  

And what would Julien be doing?

[saviking]

How many times does a club play an above defensive player and justify settling for average or below offense. Look no farther than Michael Taylor. You could even argue it pertains to Correa this year. Why can't it work the other way as well. 

The Twins problem this year is they don't hit well enough to score enough runs. There is no way you can take Julien's bat out of the lineup. 

I as well have noticed his defense has improved as his over all confidence in the bigs has improved. Let's give him a chance to perfect his craft.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Keep getting Julian some reps at 2B.  He has improved and he will improve more this season and after an off-season of work he will be fine at that position next year.

Julien has had 4 off seasons worth of work at 2B since the draft as well as the entire COVID offseason but I'm sure one more offseason worth of work will do the trick.

[USAFChief]

"You can shake a dozen glove men out of a tree, but the bat separates the men from the boys."

 

- Dale Long

[gman]

I think Correa could help tutor Julian as a second baseman. Probably as good as many infield coaches could. I suspect he can also help cover some defensive short comings, that don't include playing on the second base side of the bag.

I think many people forget all the defensive shifts that were put in place not just to cover hitters, but to cover defensive deficient players. You can't put second baseman in the outfield any more to increase their range.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, killertwinfan said:

Wow, interesting narrative.  Just imagine if we had this wisdom last year.  Arraez would be firmly entrenched as our second baseman and we would have had to use different assets to acquire Lopez.  

According to Statcast, Arraez is even worse at 2B.   Julien is in the 18th percentile for OAA and Arraez in the 2nd percentile.  Why would it be better to have Arraez "entrenched" as our 2B?  One could argue that we replaced Arraez with an equivalent player and gained a very good starting pitcher.

[DJL44]

I think the article overrates Julien's glove. He's a -6 in both Total Zone and Defensive Runs saved in 400 innings which would be -17/-18 runs saved extrapolated to a full season. You don't see players below -20 very often because teams don't tolerate defense that bad.

Kyle Farmer has been below average at SS but exactly average at 2B which would mean the gap between Farmer and Julien over a full season would be almost 2 WAR.

Farmer's bat is rated at -4 vs Julien's +10 over roughly the same number of plate appearances. That's a 3 WAR gap over a full season. That gives Julien the edge by 1 WAR overall.

Really the best answer is to platoon Farmer and Julien. Julien has been awful hitting lefties (.412 OPS) while Farmer is known for hitting lefties. Farmer can replace Julien defensively in the 8th and 9th innings or conversely Julien can pinch hit for Farmer. Their value when deployed properly is about 1 WAR compared to randomly assigning their innings.

[DJL44]

One other thing to note. Julien is probably dragging down Correa's defensive numbers as they are not good together turning the double play (the Twins are near last in the league in double plays per game). That's mostly Julien's fault.

[Cody Schoenmann]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think the article overrates Julien's glove. He's a -6 in both Total Zone and Defensive Runs saved in 400 innings which would be -17/-18 runs saved extrapolated to a full season. You don't see players below -20 very often because teams don't tolerate defense that bad.

Kyle Farmer has been below average at SS but exactly average at 2B which would mean the gap between Farmer and Julien over a full season would be almost 2 WAR.

Farmer's bat is rated at -4 vs Julien's +10 over roughly the same number of plate appearances. That's a 3 WAR gap over a full season. That gives Julien the edge by 1 WAR overall.

Really the best answer is to platoon Farmer and Julien. Julien has been awful hitting lefties (.412 OPS) while Farmer is known for hitting lefties. Farmer can replace Julien defensively in the 8th and 9th innings or conversely Julien can pinch hit for Farmer. Their value when deployed properly is about 1 WAR compared to randomly assigning their innings.

great insight!

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Keep getting Julian some reps at 2B.  He has improved and he will improve more this season and after an off-season of work he will be fine at that position next year.

Yeah, I'm with @DJL44 on this one. This narrative basically assumes he's never worked at 2B and thus it's likely he'll improve now that he's doing that. He's been working at 2B for years. Hopefully during his off-seasons as well. I'm ok leaving him at 2B if that's the position he has the best chance of succeeding at, but I don't expect him to ever be an adequate fielder there.

People like to point out Koskie (not saying you're doing that now, but just an example) and how well he improved after starting as a bad fielder while ignoring the significantly more players who were bad at fielding and stayed bad at fielding. When you watch his feet and hands I don't know where people see a guy likely to improve. The most likely result is that Julien stays bad defensively his whole career, but you hope he hits enough to make up for it, or you move him to DH. That doesn't mean you don't give him a chance to improve, but he's got a long, long ways to go and he's not some 21 year old who's never played the position before.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, CTDookie said:

I’d move Julien to 1st, drop Gallo, move Polanco back to second and put Lewis at 3rd.

But Polanco has been even worse than Julien at 2B this year. He just doesn't move side-to-side like he used to.

[Minny505]

44 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

But Polanco has been even worse than Julien at 2B this year. He just doesn't move side-to-side like he used to.

I am consistently surprised by Twins fans and followers by the opinion of Polanco's defense at 2B. Polanco has been a bad defender his entire MLB career at his primary position.

Julien is a lateral move. There is no reason to bump Julien from 2B right now, but there is no impetus to keep him there either...unless it is to keep his bat in the lineup without using the DH spot. Polanco is a lateral move at 2B.

As @Trov stated, unless a big turnaround takes place on defense before the end of the 2023 season, Julien's best value long-term likely comes at a different defensive position. My guess is as a LF/1B.

Once we have Lee & Lewis up, both of whom profile as capable of playing SS at the MLB level, it would seem ignorant to keep Lewis at 2B...though we know how much this management team likes to feign ignorance and dig in their heels on something that is not working optimally.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I'm with @DJL44 on this one. This narrative basically assumes he's never worked at 2B and thus it's likely he'll improve now that he's doing that. He's been working at 2B for years. Hopefully during his off-seasons as well. I'm ok leaving him at 2B if that's the position he has the best chance of succeeding at, but I don't expect him to ever be an adequate fielder there.

People like to point out Koskie (not saying you're doing that now, but just an example) and how well he improved after starting as a bad fielder while ignoring the significantly more players who were bad at fielding and stayed bad at fielding. When you watch his feet and hands I don't know where people see a guy likely to improve. The most likely result is that Julien stays bad defensively his whole career, but you hope he hits enough to make up for it, or you move him to DH. That doesn't mean you don't give him a chance to improve, but he's got a long, long ways to go and he's not some 21 year old who's never played the position before.

Excellent job pointing out survival bias!

[Shaitan]

This premise assumes the team will be 100% healthy at some point, which seems unlikely to me given recent history. Nobody on this roster is being forced out of a position due to so many injuries.

But debating if Julien can survive at 2B on his skillset is a worthwhile discussion. I'd argue that you can somewhat hide his flaws there. He's "acceptable" but not good. Dan Uggla lasted how many years? The Twins even tried to hide young Cuddyer's defensive woes there. It lasted...a little while.

I think the Arraez comments (about his defense) are interesting and might mirror my thoughts here. Essentially that Julien is okay at 2B as long as he keeps hitting, but long-term he'll either have to significantly improve on defense or he'll be moved to a position where he's less of a liability when the roster has an opening.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

Seems to be a common narrative--great bat and poor glove at 2nd base-----hmmmm--I think we have heard that before.  This team has to improve their Defense and they don't do that with Julien at 2nd.

Move Julien to DH.  He has enough slugging to make sense in the DH spot and he is too short with average wingspan to play first.  

a healthy Polanco to 2nd.  This off-season the Twins decide if they extend Polanco or try to ride Brooks Lee at 2B in the future.

Lewis to 3rd when he returns

Now for a little controversy.  Buxton apparently cannot return to the OF because of his knee issues, but he is floundering at DH---he needs to be in the rhythm of the game fielding a position.  DH is not for everyone and Buxton is very much a rhythm and feel player.  Play a taller, flexible, long armed Buxton at 1B.  He or Kirilloff are often injured, but they can share time at 1B or plug in full time while the other is hurt.  It would take some glove and footwork training for Buck, but he is more than capable of handling.  Having him play DH has really been a failed experiment.

I like Julien and this team needs bats, but poor fielding, limited range defenders is something the Twins don't have the run production to cover for.

 

Interesting proposal to put Buck at 1B. I don't recall having seen that proposal before. I am interested in reading the pros and cons of that move. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I like the Buxton at 1B idea with one caveat.  Will his knees hold up if he's at 1B?  I have two bad knees (both to be replaced over the next year) and the discomfort is greatest when I pivot.  Think of getting out of a car.  If you are the driver, you put your left foot flat on the ground perpendicular to the car and twist your body to get out.  This type of movement causes me a lot of discomfort (and sometimes sharp pain).  Now think about playing 1B.  On any ground ball or low line drive, the first step is either pivoting towards the ball or towards 1B.  Either one would be painful to me.  Or holding a runner on, you either twist to make a tag on a pickoff move or twist to get into fielding position.  Either one would make me grimace.  I'm just not sure that 1B is as pain free as you would imagine if it's your knees that are your concern.

Submitted in pain, Terrydactyls.

I feel your (knee) pain and agree completely.  However, he IS a lot younger than us and in a lot better condition, AND I don't know that we as fans know what exactly his physical issues are.  Is it "just" knees, or hips, or "legs" or all of the above? You're right in that the move may not do any good and may be just as taxing on his body.  Or, maybe he can do it.  Hey. . . look. . . I'm grasping at straws here. . .