Edouard Julien Provides Ample Value at Second Base Despite Defensive Shortcomings

I agree with the title of the post. Julien does need to keep hitting and having good at bats though. Decreasing the strike out rates as well would be nice. He has cooled off a bit and the Twins need him to be a force at the plate. Finally, pushing him down to the nine hole, but still starting, makes sense against left-handed pitchers. There are benefits of having Julien in the lineup on a full time basis. His long at bats are annoying for opposing pitchers which can have positive benefits for those who come to the plate after Julien. 

Good read.  A lot of info that I was wondering about.  Right now his bat is certainly good enough to play almost anywhere.  But I couldn't help but raise my eyebrows when I saw his BABIP was almost 100 points above average.  I think we can all agree that probably won't hold up.  So...we shall see.  Keep playing him until when (or if) we find someone better.

It seems like the Twins keep ending up with guys who are sort of postionless (Steer, CES, Julien) or at best poor defenders...

Wow, interesting narrative.  Just imagine if we had this wisdom last year.  Arraez would be firmly entrenched as our second baseman and we would have had to use different assets to acquire Lopez.  

Good insights and information.  I like (King) Julien at 2B.

When Lewis returns, I’d move Julien to 1st, drop Gallo, move Polanco back to second and put Lewis at 3rd.

This was the same debate we had with Polanco at SS years ago.  Do we deal with subpar defense for better offense?  For this year, I would say overall yes, because we do not have a clear better option, but long term no because we should have better options on defense with similar offense profile.  2nd should be filled by Lee or Lewis with the other playing 3rd for years to come, or until CC needs to move to 3rd, but either way 2nd should be filled by one of them.  Julien should be moved off 2nd, or we should look to shop him like we did Arraez.  

I know people went crazy for Julien after his crazy hot stretch, but if you go outside his crazy hot stretch in July he has been just slightly above average, and in August he has been well below average at the plate. Clearly adjustments against him has been made, and he needs to adjust.  I never go head over heals for rookies that have a hot stretch SSS.  I am not saying he will not be a good hitter, he has all the makings of it, but there are many a hitter we over value in rookie years. 

I do hope umps stop ringing him up on balls clearly outside the zone.  Many strike outs are on called strike 3 when they are well outside the box on the broadcast.  Many times on pitches way inside or outside.  Maybe getting the robo umps or challenges next year will help that. 

I would like to see some other statistics that tell us how good he is defensively at 2B.  He's improving and we obviously need his bat in the lineup - but exactly how bad is he, and how much is his D improving as the season moves on?  Would love to keep him at 2B long term because we have enough depth now and in the future already for DH and 1B.

Seems to be a common narrative--great bat and poor glove at 2nd base-----hmmmm--I think we have heard that before.  This team has to improve their Defense and they don't do that with Julien at 2nd.

Move Julien to DH.  He has enough slugging to make sense in the DH spot and he is too short with average wingspan to play first.  

a healthy Polanco to 2nd.  This off-season the Twins decide if they extend Polanco or try to ride Brooks Lee at 2B in the future.

Lewis to 3rd when he returns

Now for a little controversy.  Buxton apparently cannot return to the OF because of his knee issues, but he is floundering at DH---he needs to be in the rhythm of the game fielding a position.  DH is not for everyone and Buxton is very much a rhythm and feel player.  Play a taller, flexible, long armed Buxton at 1B.  He or Kirilloff are often injured, but they can share time at 1B or plug in full time while the other is hurt.  It would take some glove and footwork training for Buck, but he is more than capable of handling.  Having him play DH has really been a failed experiment.

I like Julien and this team needs bats, but poor fielding, limited range defenders is something the Twins don't have the run production to cover for.

57 minutes ago, killertwinfan said:

Wow, interesting narrative.  Just imagine if we had this wisdom last year.  Arraez would be firmly entrenched as our second baseman and we would have had to use different assets to acquire Lopez.  

They don't get Lopez without giving up Arraez. Doesn't happen.

1 hour ago, killertwinfan said:

Wow, interesting narrative.  Just imagine if we had this wisdom last year.  Arraez would be firmly entrenched as our second baseman and we would have had to use different assets to acquire Lopez.  

That may be what you want, but Miami specifically targeted Arraez for obvious reasons. This is an Arraez for Lopez like it or lump it situation. Good on the front office for digging in their heels and getting the 2 prospects. 

11 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Keep getting Julian some reps at 2B.  He has improved and he will improve more this season and after an off-season of work he will be fine at that position next year.

Julien has had 4 off seasons worth of work at 2B since the draft as well as the entire COVID offseason but I'm sure one more offseason worth of work will do the trick.

2 hours ago, killertwinfan said:

Wow, interesting narrative.  Just imagine if we had this wisdom last year.  Arraez would be firmly entrenched as our second baseman and we would have had to use different assets to acquire Lopez.  

According to Statcast, Arraez is even worse at 2B.   Julien is in the 18th percentile for OAA and Arraez in the 2nd percentile.  Why would it be better to have Arraez "entrenched" as our 2B?  One could argue that we replaced Arraez with an equivalent player and gained a very good starting pitcher.

I think the article overrates Julien's glove. He's a -6 in both Total Zone and Defensive Runs saved in 400 innings which would be -17/-18 runs saved extrapolated to a full season. You don't see players below -20 very often because teams don't tolerate defense that bad.

Kyle Farmer has been below average at SS but exactly average at 2B which would mean the gap between Farmer and Julien over a full season would be almost 2 WAR.

Farmer's bat is rated at -4 vs Julien's +10 over roughly the same number of plate appearances. That's a 3 WAR gap over a full season. That gives Julien the edge by 1 WAR overall.

Really the best answer is to platoon Farmer and Julien. Julien has been awful hitting lefties (.412 OPS) while Farmer is known for hitting lefties. Farmer can replace Julien defensively in the 8th and 9th innings or conversely Julien can pinch hit for Farmer. Their value when deployed properly is about 1 WAR compared to randomly assigning their innings.

One other thing to note. Julien is probably dragging down Correa's defensive numbers as they are not good together turning the double play (the Twins are near last in the league in double plays per game). That's mostly Julien's fault.

3 hours ago, CTDookie said:

I’d move Julien to 1st, drop Gallo, move Polanco back to second and put Lewis at 3rd.

But Polanco has been even worse than Julien at 2B this year. He just doesn't move side-to-side like he used to.

44 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

But Polanco has been even worse than Julien at 2B this year. He just doesn't move side-to-side like he used to.

I am consistently surprised by Twins fans and followers by the opinion of Polanco's defense at 2B. Polanco has been a bad defender his entire MLB career at his primary position.

Julien is a lateral move. There is no reason to bump Julien from 2B right now, but there is no impetus to keep him there either...unless it is to keep his bat in the lineup without using the DH spot. Polanco is a lateral move at 2B.

As @Trov stated, unless a big turnaround takes place on defense before the end of the 2023 season, Julien's best value long-term likely comes at a different defensive position. My guess is as a LF/1B.

Once we have Lee & Lewis up, both of whom profile as capable of playing SS at the MLB level, it would seem ignorant to keep Lewis at 2B...though we know how much this management team likes to feign ignorance and dig in their heels on something that is not working optimally.

This premise assumes the team will be 100% healthy at some point, which seems unlikely to me given recent history. Nobody on this roster is being forced out of a position due to so many injuries.

But debating if Julien can survive at 2B on his skillset is a worthwhile discussion. I'd argue that you can somewhat hide his flaws there. He's "acceptable" but not good. Dan Uggla lasted how many years? The Twins even tried to hide young Cuddyer's defensive woes there. It lasted...a little while.

I think the Arraez comments (about his defense) are interesting and might mirror my thoughts here. Essentially that Julien is okay at 2B as long as he keeps hitting, but long-term he'll either have to significantly improve on defense or he'll be moved to a position where he's less of a liability when the roster has an opening.