We Owe Max Kepler and Emilio Pagan an Apology

[Matthew Taylor]

Max Kepler and Emilio Pagán were left for dead by most Twins fans just a month ago. They have both been proving fans wrong and providing immeasurable value to a team that desperately needs it.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

The day was June 11th, and the Minnesota Twins had just suffered what was arguably their worst loss of the season, a 7-6 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays after blowing a two-run lead in the eighth inning. The primary culprit for the loss? Emilio Pagán, who served up a three-run home run to Cavan Biggio to give the game away.

The three-run home run was just the latest in a run of meltdowns for Pagán in his time with the Minnesota Twins, this time pushing his ERA on the 2023 season up to 4.61. Following the game, many in Twins territory were (understandably) pushing for the reliever to be DFA’d.

Including this author.

Emilio Pagán was on his fourth consecutive season of terrible performances and showed no signs of it getting better. Pagán continuously served up home runs at inopportune times that would absolutely crush the team for which he was pitching.

The other reason for getting rid of Emilio Pagán was that his upside was so limited. Even if Pagán were to “turn things around”, how high would his ceiling actually be?

Well, since that back-breaking home run that he allowed on that June night in Toronto, Pagán has shown what his ceiling can be. In the 23 appearances since that game, Pagán has posted a 1.59 ERA with 21 strikeouts and eight walks. This elite stretch of pitching has brought Pagán’s ERA on the season down to 3.24 in 50 innings.

Perhaps most importantly, the right-hander has shown the ability to limit the home runs that have haunted his teams for years. After allowing 28 home runs over his previous two seasons, Pagán has only allowed four home runs this season. That ability to keep the ball in the ballpark has been the biggest development for Pagán and will be what keeps him as a trusted reliever down the stretch for the Minnesota Twins.

On the same day that Emilio Pagán served up the home run that gave the Twins the loss, Max Kepler similarly had a miserable day at the office going 0-for-4 and dropping his OPS to a lowly .637.

Like Pagán, many Twins fans were urging the front office to move on from Max Kepler as he was continuing his run of failure at the plate ever since his breakout in 2019. Additionally, with the Twins so flush with talent in left-handed corner outfielders, there was little utility seen in keeping Kepler on the roster.

Similar to Pagán, Kepler didn’t appear to have the upside that was worth hanging onto Kepler through his downsides. But also similar to Pagán, Kepler has shown that he does possess that upside.

Since the 0-for-4 performance on June 11, Kepler owns a .853 OPS in 48 games with 11 home runs and 26 RBI in 168 plate appearances. Kepler’s bat has propelled the Twins offense in a time when they needed it most and his defense has similarly been great. Additionally, with the injury of Alex Kirilloff and the poor play from Joey Gallo, the Twins have needed production from Kepler’s left-handed bat, and he has provided.

So, Max and Emilio, on behalf of all of Twins Territory… We are sorry!

Most of us wanted you gone, and you have proven us wrong. We just hope that you continue to prove us wrong, because the Twins will need you both down the stretch.

Would you like to apologize to Max Kepler and Emilio Pagán? Leave your apology in the comments below.

View full article

[Patzky]

There will be a time to apologize to Dallas Keuchel and Joey Gallo later.. won't there? 

[Bridgette]

Sorry to the author but I don't need to apologize to Kepler.  I NEVER GAVE UP ON HIM

[Doc Munson]

There is ZERO to apologies for. as you said for both players, they both have had HORRID 3-4 year stretches.

Instead of an apology, it should be...  "About darn time!!!"  except without the darn.

[MMMordabito]

[JDubs]

Kinda, but the Twins also could have simply gone out during the off season and gotten good players to play in their place, players that were just consistently above average so we didn't have to cling to the brief periods where these two are above average. For all Kep has done lately, his season OPS+ is still just 103, and it's pretty easy to find corner outfielders that top that. Same with Pagan -- all sorts of relievers available that haven't already blown a dozen or so big games for the team.

[specialiststeve]

Both have played well "lately" but let's not forget the HORRID 2 months they had to start the season. Especially Max.  

No apologies... especially when we still have the log jam and guys that are worthy of playing sitting in AAA. 

Moving him to bolster the bullpen... would have been the prudent thing to do... 

[gunnarthor]

Kepler has amassed 1 WAR this year. He making 8.5m. He's been horrible. And he's blocking young players. 

TD is really on a roll. Cripes,  Hawk Harrelson would be embarrassed to be this much of a Homer.  

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Matthew Taylor said:

Would you like to apologize to Max Kepler and Emilio Pagán? Leave your apology in the comments below.

Not really. Thanks for asking though. 

[Whitey333]

Absolutely no apologies.  They have both played well the past couple of months but that's it.  Since 2021 Kepler has a batting g average of .217. Pagan has been one of baseballs worst bullpen arms over the past 4 years.  Yes I'm glad they are finally contributing at least some to this very mediocre team.  I still think it would be best if they are both gone after this season.  This team has been floundering for 3 seasons.  It's time for change.

  

[terrydactyls]

11 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Kepler has amassed 1 WAR this year. He making 8.5m. He's been horrible. And he's blocking young players. 

TD is really on a roll. Cripes,  Hawk Harrelson would be embarrassed to be this much of a Homer.  

So he is performing above replacement level?  Sounds like he's being paid about the right amount.

[yeahyabetcha]

Maybe apologizing is going too far, but I will probably agree that the Twins best options to try to win the division and maybe even a playoff game is with Max in right field and Pagan as a bullpen option.

[chinmusic]

The whole premise of an apology is kinda silly, but if there were to be one, it would be from them, not to them.

That said, keep up the productivity, guys!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, JDubs said:

Kinda, but the Twins also could have simply gone out during the off season and gotten good players to play in their place, players that were just consistently above average so we didn't have to cling to the brief periods where these two are above average. For all Kep has done lately, his season OPS+ is still just 103, and it's pretty easy to find corner outfielders that top that. Same with Pagan -- all sorts of relievers available that haven't already blown a dozen or so big games for the team.

So, I’m not apologizing but I am willing to be realistic. End of the year averages are just that. Few players play to their averages all season……..last year I couldn’t stand Pagan and it bled into this season. I don’t get excited when I see him come into a game even now, but 4 HR’s over 50 innings is really good. He’s not perfect - had a hand in probably 3 losses this year. To have a 4.62 ERA on June 11 & to have it to 3.25 by Aug. 11 is good stuff! No apologies but try to be fair!

Kepler, “get the bum off the team” was my chant well into June. He’d make a slick catch or hit a HR every 7-8 games and there would be a reason not to lynch him……..the guy is probably top 5 Right-fielders in the game since mid-June. His OPS is .853 & he’s hit 11HR in 48 games……assuming he plays 135 games, that’s a 31 HR pace……..he may get to 25 with his rough first 10 weeks of the season……..the past 8 weeks have been great! No apologies, just fair!

[raindog]

Pagán has an xFIP of 4.48. He shouldn’t be trusted. 

[PatPfund]

Hanging on to my Max apology until this proves sustainable, but at least I located my Kepler shirt deep in the back of the closet, and might actually get it out for wear sometime soon. I never wanted Págán DFAed; my frustrations were always that I wish he could be, but the 'pen was so shallow that there never was any real pressure from other talent to drop Emilio. (The way Wallner has clearly bypassed Gallo, and the pressure to drop Joey is consistently going to grow as better hitters get healthy, and the big guy's flailing continues with dwindling at bats.)

But despite the withheld apologies, it is pretty marvelous to have Max and Emilio part of the solution instead of being foundations of the problem!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, Matthew Taylor said:

So, Max and Emilio, on behalf of all of Twins Territory… We are sorry!

Speak for yourself. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, Bridgette said:

Sorry to the author but I don't need to apologize to Kepler.  I NEVER GAVE UP ON HIM

Welcome to Twins Daily. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

So he is performing above replacement level?  Sounds like he's being paid about the right amount.

Correct!……his glove is solid & he’s been hitting well for 8 weeks…..keeps improving. Hit 3 balls to the wall in one game earlier this week. Much better than popping up to short & rolling out to 2B!!! He’s made a change & ya gotta respect that. If he stays near this recent performance I think they pick-up his option for ‘24.

Gallo has not changed! Thought we could ride it out through August & then have him be one of the 2 roster expansion spots in September. Good for continuity & morale?

I’d DFA him & put Solano on IL & bring Garlick to play first base & Lewis back up by Monday morning.

Where’s Kirilloff??

[joefish]

I will apologize if they do too. They go first. I'm waiting...

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Hanging on to my Max apology until this proves sustainable, but at least I located my Kepler shirt deep in the back of the closet, and might actually get it out for wear sometime soon. I never wanted Págán DFAed; my frustrations were always that I wish he could be, but the 'pen was so shallow that there never was any real pressure from other talent to drop Emilio. (The way Wallner has clearly bypassed Gallo, and the pressure to drop Joey is consistently going to grow as better hitters get healthy, and the big guy's flailing continues with dwindling at bats.)

But despite the withheld apologies, it is pretty marvelous to have Max and Emilio part of the solution instead of being foundations of the problem!

I’ve thought, for what it’s worth since end of June, that Gallo was going to be kept around in case of injury (i.e. Kirilloff) through roster manipulation so they could carry him in September with the roster expansion. This way they get his whole “perceived value” through the year - keep team continuity in clubhouse - never have to regret dropping him.

Larnach as a replacement  for Gallo sounds nice but with both Kirilloff & Solano out we’d be starting Farmer at 1B every night. Maybe not a bad thing? Anyway, I still see him around until the playoff roster comes out on Oct. 2.

[gman]

I don't see resigning them for next year, unless its some kind of sign and trade thing. They either held back or driven back the team too much the last couple of years. I.E. worn out the welcome no matter what they do.

[twinfan]

Pitchers and hitters go through good and bad spells all the time. Kepler, however, has been very consistent in his overall stats every year- even though they aren't great. So has Gallo but his are awful except for the 20-25 times he will hit it out. Pagan is either very good or very not so good. You take what you can get since most relievers will blow 5-6 saves or holds a year. If the Twins have to rely on Keichel for the rest of the race, God help them. He'll win 3 or 4 (maybe) but lose 5 or 6 and won't beat a good hitting team. Injuries continue to haunt this team yet (and I probably shouldn't say this) Correa, of all people considering what happened in the off-season, has played almost every game. Maybe if Buxton was healthy at the break we could have traded him. Maybe they will do it in the off-season. We have 6 games left vs Cleveland and we had better win at least 4 but with the way this team hits I don't know if we can.

[RpR]

How well the Twins did against the Yankees dtermined how well they would do early this season; I figure how well they do in the remaining games against the Phillies, will show how the rest of the season goes.

[Linus]

They both owe me an apology for having to watch them over the last couple seasons. I place more credence on their performance over the last several years compared to the last two months. 

[MABB1959]

Batting average low 200’s with only 19 HR’s sets a pretty low bar!

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Bridgette said:

Sorry to the author but I don't need to apologize to Kepler.  I NEVER GAVE UP ON HIM

I love your attitude. Great first post!

However... full disclosure... I did indeed give up on him and I'm still not going to apologize. 

Hope he keeps it going tho'. 

[CRF]

Not offering any apologies for them to be doing what they SHOULD have been doing all along. At least in Kepler's case, anyway. Pagan...I'm not so sure about. I think he'll revert to his usual self pretty soon. 

[bird]

How do advanced stats factor in consistency? Or, in the case of these two players, inconsistency? I mean, when a player's valleys are both deep and long, it affects the whole team, right?

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

It is going to be an interesting day here when it is announced that Kepler and Pagan will be back in Twins uniforms in 2024...