Doc Munson

The Twins are in need of a dynamic cultural shift. While I think the Twins COULD compete this year as currently constituted, I am an eternal optimist. I believe Lewis can return to his brief MVP type form, I believe Wallner can absolutely MASH, I believe Keaschall can be the real deal, I believe Buxton can be healthy again and have another productive year. that is nearly half of a potent lineup right there. The Twins want to win, but they also need to win back fans. They need to strategically gut this team. and to do so they need to crunch numbers and come up with a new analytic. a "butts in seats" and "eyes on Broadcasts" type numbers. I do not know answers to any of these hypothetical stats, but I believe the interest is so low in the Twins that trading ANYONE will not have a negative impact on butts in seats or eyes on broadcast numbers. This is actually an incredible position to be in!!! and should give the Twins Front Office confidence to do ANYTHING!!! The Twins need to do whatever is necessary to not just rebuild, but reshape how this roster is constructed. We need to focus on young exciting players with personalities. Has Joe Ryan ever pushed the needle on excitement? Sure, he is an All Star top of the rotation arm, btu has he really put butts in seats? Twins home attendance overall averaged 22,108. Home games Ryan pitched averaged 23,445 (that was buffered by a 40,100 attendance driven more by Skenes pitching for Pittsburgh). taking that game out the average was 22,164. SO, even with an All Star pitcher on the mound he drove 59 more tickets sold than the average. SO the negative financial impact from fans on moving him would be negligible at best. SO you trade a top arm with 2 years of control for a young top exciting prospect, and not only do you save the $6.2M in salary, but lets say we can get a top 10 or top 20 overall prospect for him. and he is someone who can make the team at some point this year... Say an Eldridge with massive power for 1B from SF, or an exciting Sebastian Walcott from Rangers, or an exciting speedster like Crawford from Phillies, Someone that is more "must see". That trade would put many more butts in seats!!! and an every day player doing every game vs 1 in every 5. Then, as much as I hate being redundant, to offset the loss in the rotation you go and you sign a Justin Verlander, you spike jersey sales, ticket sales etc. and while Verlander is no longer the perrenial Cy Young, he is still a winning pitcher as evidenced by his 2.69 ERA over his last 12 starts!! You then trade Trevor Larnach for anything and let one of Walker Jenkins, E Rodriguez or Gabriel Gonzalez, ro whatever young exciting prospect we get for Ryan get those ABs.

And another aspect that makes moves like stated above is the fact that if the Pohlad's did not ultimately sell outright, or if teh new limited partners have desire to buy more, the Twins are waiting until a new CBa is signed in a year+, and stocking the team with exciting young players to build a stronger season ticket base will only boost sale price of the Twins.

Having zero inside knowledge, it still seems abundantly clear there were major differences in opinion between Falvey and ownership. Usually this comes down to profitability vs winning. Just look at the waves of speculation. Speculation can always be wrong, but some speculation was based on facts. Initially It was anticipated that the Twins would move potentially multiple players. Larnach was expected to have been moved. Larnach is a redundant peice yet we then pivoted to signing him to nearly $4.5M. This may have made sense if you were thinking of signing him to trade for some sort of value vs simply DFA him. Yet there has been zero juice on him. So are we "stuck" with him as we have multiple young OF about ready to step up. Ryan was initially portrayed as a disgruntled Ace who wanted out at last years deadline. He has immense trade value so it seemed like the Twins would trade him. Then came the announcement shortly after investors were named where it was stated none of the Big 3 would get moved. OK then, if they aren't being moved then you would think you would secure them. but then comes the deadline to exchange ARB salaries, and the Twins secure deals with everyone except Rayn, and are only $500K apart., so maybe Ryan ISNT that vital to the team??? where you risk alienating over $500K coming off the last year plus??? The Twins typically do not continue negotiating with players, but then a bit later out of the blue they agreed to a 1 year deal at the midpoint. The ebb and flow of this is just not normal. SO what side of ownership wanted what? WHo wanted him signed and who wanted him traded? I guess we will see, but I guess Ryan is now traded. Josh Bell & Victor Caratini signed for a combined $14M this year. Spending $14M could typically signal we are looking to add. And while they could be decent signings, do we really look significantly different than we did prior to those signings? Falvey had done nothing to build excitement for the upcoming season. Was that because of him? or ownership? hard really to tell, but regardless there is still little to no excitement. There was a small boost when Joe was ousted, but that really did not sustain itself, While I am a Homer, and yes I do think Royce Lewis can turn it around and bounce back, and I do think Wallner can bounce back and I hope that Buck can have back to back good years, and i have hope that Keaschall is not Juline 2.0 and can continue his small sample size,I still wanted something of a jolt this offseason to bring it all together, and while Bell is solid that alone does not cut it. Interest and ticket sales have been sluggish at best, that is on Falvey (unless handcuffed). The Twins right now need something BOLD, even if just for the sake of being bold. That boldness needs to be trading Joe Ryan. and the Twins need to go big game prospect hunting. * Would the Rangers have interest in Ryan if the price included Sebastian Walcott? * Would the Giants have interest in Ryan if the price was Eldridge? * Would the Phillies have interest in Rayn if the price included Justin Crawford? The Twins need to identify a singular priority. Power, Speed, avg, defense, whatever it is. and maniacally go after that. Even if overpaying from a pitching standpoint. Ryan is a good pitcher, a winning pitcher, but does keeping Ryan put butts in seats? No, Would a 40+ HR 1B in Eldridge, or a top of scale speedster in Crawford, or a top overall exciting player in Walcott put butts in seats? YES. and they would contribute to W's just as much as Ryan would. As mentioned the Twins need to be bold, build excitement. Moving Ryan for a MLB ready or near MLB ready player like mentioned above is the first step. There are "seat fillers" still out there in FA. They may no longer be in their prime, but you offset Ryan by Signing Verlander, back it up with also signing Scherzer, and they are Seat Fillers who will easily bridge the gap to some of our up and coming potential starters. That shows we are not trading top players to slash payroll, and we are not trading top players for a long rebuild. We have 1-2 top prospect OF on the way who will be here this year. Pair that with another young top prospect in Eldridge, Walcott, Crawford or the like. and now you can sell the hope of a Royce and/or Wallner rebound to pair with Buxton, Jeffers, Keaschall, even Bell, and that is a lineup that can fill seats. you have a rotation with future HOF Verlander and Scherzer to go with Lopez and young arms and that is something that could fill seats and compete.

One interesting thing will be Joe Ryan, Is he more likely to be traded now? Falvey stated none of the big 3 would be traded. Was that a FAlvey decision or a Pohlad decision? With other top FA pitching signed Ryan could command a haul. And after initially not agreeing on a deal, Ryan was heading towards ARB, until a recent deal took place. What changed there? and was that a foreshadowing?

The New Twins FO has stated Ryan is one who will NOT be traded, that being said Rumors continue to swirl. It is pretty obvious that Joe Ryan will not sign a long-term deal in Minnesota. It has been reported that he wanted out at last years deadline. It is also clear that the Twins by not agreeing to a pre-arb deal over $500K have no interest in keeping him, or at least keeping him happy. At this point if nothing is done, Ryan has 2 ARB years with the Twins then hits FA with at best a QO. That being said with the QO proven to limit players earnings potential, the new CBA the players will be pushing to eliminate the QO. so the Twins could risk getting nothing. Speaking of the upcoming CBA, there is a real chance there could be at least a partial season loss with a contentious CBA negotiation on the horizon, so next year may be a wash regardless. As a result if the Twins do not foresee keeping Ryan longterm, then this offseason is the time to move him. The perfect team to trade with is now setting up to be the Yankees. The Yankees are still in need of a starter given they will start the year with multiple pitchers still recovering from injury. The Twins need to use that to leverage a solid return. That return starts with Carlos Lagrange. HE is nearly MLB ready and a top power arm. While near MLB ready the Yankees would prefer a proven potential ACE. SO what else do we demand? The Yankees after signing Bellinger have a glut of OF/DH. and while that is also where we have prospects coming there is quality there. whit a potential OF of Bellinger, Judge, Grisham locked in. that means no ABs for Dominguez, or now MLB ready Spencer Jones. Either Dominguez or Jones could be nice add ins. Dominguez is a butcher in the OF but has a quality bat. Jones has good speed, and while he K's a lot he also has tons of power. I doubt he is the next Aaron Judge, but I also don't think he is the next Joey Gallo. Another option that could be a benefit for the Twins could be Stanton. Stanton has a NT clause, but if the Yankees let him knwo they are going with the switch hitting Dominguez or the future with Jones and as a result his ABs will be slashed, then maybe he would waive NT clause. Stanton's deal pays him $29M & $25M over next 2 years, but Miami is already paying $10M each year. leaving just $15M & $19M. What if in order to get a proven top of the rotation arm In Ryan, they would have to eat the $34M remaining on Stanton's next 2 years? Then Lagrange and a free Stanton, could be a nice get for the Twins. What kind of trade chip would Stanton be at the deadline this year??!!!! especially if he keeps up his HR ratio of 1:10 Abs this year. HE would be the most in demand trade candidate at the deadline!! WHiel being FREE for this year and next, along with a team option for 2028. While Legrange may be ready to get some starts in the Bigs, he would obviously not be proven. The Twins could still then look to add a veteran arm like Verlander (my dream) to slot in.

The Twins have not done much, for good or for bad, to alter their OF/DH depth. Yes Twins signed Josh Bell. Another reclamation project who could be decent. Actually not a bad move given our situation and history, but not a game changer. Yes Twins signed Victor Caratini, again maybe another slight upgrade at back up C and possible 1B ABs, but again no game changer. The Twins still have redundancy issues and need to clear space at some time this year for a potential Tsunami of young OF. Emmanual Rodriguez (bats lefty) could be ready this year (unless he once again misses chunks of time with injuries). I think the best move is to trade his potential for pitching, but let's assume the Twins do not feel the same way. Obviously Walker Jenkins (bats lefty)is a freight train coming, will it be 2026? Gabriel Gonzalez (bats righty)could also be a player in 2026. He has only had 1 bad year in the minors in 2024 where he had some injury issues, after a "get right" year in 2025 he is poised for more. Any single one of them could get quality ABs in the Twins OF this year, so who is blocking them? 1) Byron Buxton. He is going nowhere. The only place he is going is to a corner OF spot in the next year or two. 2) Matt Wallner. as of now he is not going anywhere. He will flameout here before the Twins move him. He still has a lot of those "P" words. Power and Potential. Absolute worst case he stays in a platoon situation with??? (Gabriel Gonzalez anyone???) 3) Trevor Larnach. very similar (I.E. redundant) to Wallner, but 1 year older, $3.5M more expensive, less strikeouts and higher avg. but less power and significantly wekaer arm in the OF. Josh Bell removes some DH ABs which pushes Larnach back to more OF ABs. It is clear the person to move is Larnach. He is still decent to good, still has some power, and still relatively cheap (for most clubs). SO... where does he go? The Twins will obviousl ywait for Belli, and any other OF to sign as a FA before engaging in talks with teams who came up empty, But lets take a look at potential trade partners by reverse engineering a trade. 1) What ballpark is the best fit? What ballpark give sup the most LH HR? 2) What Teams have the best positonal fit? 3) What teams have the best prospect fit? #1 ballpark fit: 4 that stand out are Cinci, Orioles, Yankees, As (with their temp stadium until the Vegas stadium opens). Honorable Mention Red Sox. We do not need too much discussion here, this is pure data. these are the stadiums giving up the most HR to LH hitters. #2 Positional Fit: What teams have a need to fill what Larnach can plug? CINCINATTI: Cinci was 21st in HR last year while their ballpark giving up the most LH HR in the game. the only addition is JJ Bleday. I cannot see him being the answer. There is a positional fit here with weak OF/DH options overall. and a right handed heavy lineup. GOOD FIT YANKEES: with Stanton/Judge/Rice as potential DHs they are all either better or cheaper for that spot, in the OF there is Judge, Grisham, Dominguez in the OF with Gallo in the wings. Unless they give up Gallo or Stanton to get Larnach (which they will not move Gallo for Larnach, and Twins wont take Stanton's money...but they should)I do nto see a big need here. I do not even see a huge need for Belli. BAD POSITIONAL FIT ORIOLES: With Alonso, Basallo, and Mayo they have DH (and 1B) covered, unless Trevor changes his name to Larnacho there is no fit at DH. With Cowser, Ward, and O'neill in OF I do not see LArnach as a significant upgrade there. Add in OF prospects Beavers and Bradfield and I so not see a fit here. BAD POSITIONAL FIT As (or whatever they are/will be called: 1B & Dh are locked down with Kurtz & Rooker (unless As want to move Rookers salary.. still a couple years away from Vegas and Rooker is already 31). Soderstrom and Bulter are presumable locks and future pieces in OF, however Larnach would be an upgrade over current RF starter Colby Thomas. With few significant OF prospects on the verge. DECENT POSITIONAL FIT Red Sox: as a flier including the Sox because of Fenway. There OF is STACKED!!! but could some ABs at DH: BELOW AVG POSITIONAL FIT PROSPECT FIT: YANKEES: Lets make this quick. Larnach does not improve them. NOTHING TO SEE HERE MOVE ALONG ORIOLES: See Yankees. NOTHING TO SEE HERE MOVE ALONG RED SOX: Sox could use a DH, and some 1B reps if Casas is not healthy, if Casas is healthy then Larnach is a redundant yet less potential piece with Casas. Would want to trade for pitching, but in a deal here I think both sides would do a Larnach for Miguel Bleis deal. Bleis star has fallen significantly, yet he is the type of player Twins love to bring in. one with tons of past potential hoping to catch lightening in a bottle. DOUBTFUL DEAL CINCINATTI: Reds/Twins have history with trades, and I would say deals that helped both clubs, is there enough "there there" to do another? Would Cinci trade back CES? Would they send Petty back? Petty hasnt developed as a #1 pick would typically, but still young, CES has the dangerous potential but injury history, either of them would come with cost savings of at least $3.5M As: The As are an absolute wild card. What are they doing? are they building a core? looking to the future in Vegas? either way they have the potential to compete now, which means they most likely wouldn't move Rooker. But they are also a small market team that was actually MANDATED by the league to spend a minimum. Which is why they signed Severino. If they go cost conscious route, Do they think Rooker's contract will age poorly? and Larnach with the savings will be a good move? Would they want to move off of Severino's $25M this year and $22M PO next? and if so would it be worth it for the Twins to spend that money? Severino's splits away from teh joke minor league ballpark the As played in were actually quite good. I could also see a lottery ticket prospect like 17 year old Darwing Ozuna as a flier if our own prospects seem ready to take over this year. OVERALL: I still believe Larnach will get moved. I see the A's as a serious team to watch, Larnach fits a need in a cost conscious market with a positional need that is actually in a contention window. I do not think the A's are incompetent enough to say they are moving salary because of finances after surprising 2025 results and new found optimism, I mean what competent organization would do that? So would a Rooker or Severino be gettable? I doubt it but It take it. I see LArnach to A's for a prospect or two. and if going prospect hunting by moving a redundant piece I say go the lottery ticket route. Backup prediction is a deal with Cinci, they could use a bat at a decent price. Twins/Reds have a history, has the bloom come off CES in Cinci? I'd take him back!!!

Just a quick question... With Baltimore signing Pete Alonso, could this make a potential trade for Adley Rutschman more of a reality? Rutschman is somewhat redundant to Jeffers, both roughly the same lifetime stats, both roughly the same age, both expected to make roughly the same amount of money, The main differences being Rutschman is a switch hitter though vs Jeffers being a righty and Rutschman is going into Arb2 year and Jeffers Arb 3. Twins could keep them both fresh by platooning them. with Rutschman starting against Righties (hitting lefty) and Jeffers starting against lefties (hitting right) and then Rutschman could DH as a right-handed hitter against lefties. As far as Baltimore is concerned, they now have a C/1B/DH triumvirate of Basallo, Alonso, Rutschman. BUT they also have a number of potential DH quality bats in their organization making Rutschman a potential odd man out as both Basallo and Alonso both signed long term now. Of course, we just said we would not trade Ryan or Lopez, but the Orioles are looking for another starter. I wouldn't trade either of those for a package centering on Rutschman, but overall, I just have to wonder, is Rutschman more available now than he was 2 days ago? and would there be a fit with the Twins?

Ok I admit it, I couldn't type that with a straight face. Of course "reload" can be subjective. Sources are now indicating the Twins will not move Ryan, Lopez, or Buxton. Is this a good move? a bad move? Time will tell, but without seeing moves this offseason, and I don't like playing the Monday Morning QB game, my 2 cents.. ok maybe 7 cents.. is. I would say that this organization could use some big bats that could be acquired by moving at least 1 of them. and if you are going to move one you might as well move both starters. There is no sense in only moving one. But of course, if you move both then you have a disgruntled Buxton who will ask out, so in essence you would be moving all three. From a team building perspective, that may be the best move, from a fan retention aspect this would be corporate suicide, at least in the short term.. If players we would get back would all pan out and win for a 5-6 year stretch starting in a couple of years, fans will come back. But there is currently ZERO good will with this ownership group right now. SO 1-2 years of struggling after gutting payroll again would be hard to come back from. Could you flip the script and get good quality positional players for Ryan and Lopez, and top pitching for Buxton? possibly, and if so would be hard to say no. Secondly, another option would be to trade Ryan and Lopez (try and appease Buxton) you get top prospects back, shed money, and then use said shed money to sign other quaulity pitchers. I knwo I am a broken record here, but both Scherzer and Verlander combined could be had for the price of Lopez alone, throw in a Jon Gray for rotation/bullpen flexibility and you are in close to the same position competitive wise but get to take in a good near MLB ready prospect haul. But thsi wont happen so why consider it, OR standing pat and "reloading"... Yes, we will have a decent rotation, at least the top half. Ryan & Lopez are a good 1-2, but what about 3-6? Before getting into money issues, lets look at internal options. potential starters on 40 man roster: * Mick Abel. a 1 time decent prospect, but who really hasnt one much, - unproven with potential. * Taj Bradley more time in the majors than Abel, was productive in minors but not so much at big league level. again unproven but has some potential * Travis Adams. Lets just move on shall we? * David Festa - can he stay healthy and show any sense of consistency? * Zebby: clearly more success in minors than majors, after 25 starts and near 6.00 ERA, can he be counted on? again potential but unproven. * Bailey Ober: At one time he had proven to be a solid #3!! and a "lets roll" candidate, but a challenging 2025 after a somewhat challenign 2nd half od 2024 you have to have concerns, but he slots in as a locked in 3-6. * Kendry Rojas: Zero MLB experience, just 9 games above AA with an ERA north of 7 in those 9. * SWR: another near certainty for a spot in 3-6, has shown flashes maybe even extended flashes, but has not had a full consistent solid season. SO, with team consistently using at least 6 starters, and us having maybe a "locked in" 1-4 with any real experience, unless we add from the outside our rotation I woudl say is a "wing and a prayer". Now lets look at our position players. It is still early, and I would assume some players to be moved here, (I.E. Larnach), but lets look, * OF: Assume Buxton and Wallner stay, who do we round out 3rd and 4th OF with? Roden and Martin?? Not an overly spectacular thought. What if Wallner progresses but Buxton regresses and call that a push. That is not an outfield looking to challenge for a division. We will have upwards of 3 OF pushing for time this year in Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Jenkins, but again relying on young unproven (albeit strong) talent. * IF, assume something like Lewis at 3B, Lee at SS, Keashcall at 2B. They seem "lockish". that leaves 1B and utility open. Julien, Fitzgerald, Gasper are 40 man placeholders on any truly contending team, that leaves Kody Clemens as our everyday 1B? he had some big moments, but overall not what you are looking for in a starting 1B. * C Jeffers and Jackson. decent. (if we keep Jeffers.. if we don't trade the others we need to move SOMEONE) *DH: Currently Larnach (or platoon with Larnach and names from above). So if not trading, our internal "reloading" will come from a combination of: * Young players unproven over a full year one way or the other... Lee, Keaschall, Roden, to some extent Martin, * Not as young as they used to be who have had flashes, but need to rebound... Lewis, Wallner * Average/mediocre players who would be decent in a limited role or a back up. ... Clemens. * Young unproven prospects... Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Some may have break outs, some may have comebacks, but some will have injuries, and some will regress. In this game you just cannot count on EVERYONE taking a step forward. Calling this as i sees it, not trading our pitchers keeps us in non contending mode. Playing the "What IF" game, If Wallner and Lewis have bounce back full healthy productive years, Keaschall can prove to be legit and Buxton stays healthy then this is an offense that can score, even with Clemens, Lee, Roden, Martin rounding it out. But that is purely selling hope. Not trading any of the Big Three, as we currently sit, we will have roughly $108M on the books per Spotrac. FINALLY: Keeping the Ryan, Lopez, and of course Buxton does not make sense if we are going in with roughly the same roster, it ONLY makes sense if we are also going to ADD to the roster and the payroll. Given what we have seen from ownership, do we really think we will add? let alone significantly? Like a Munetaka Murakami, or a Pete Alonso signing. Running it back makes no sense, we either need to RELOAD, or REBUILD. And if we are keeping RYan, Lopez, Buxton, to me that say RELOAD!!!

There is one player and one player only that should be on the Twins mind if they are trading one of those two, and that is Sebastian Walcott from the Rangers. Who coincidentally could be looking for pitching.

One of the most impactful changes that most likely will be coming as part of any new CBA after the current one expires at the end of the year is not going to be salary caps or salary floors. But instead, deferred salaries. There will not only be push from inside the game, but also from outside the game. It's about to get political!! The Dodgers will single handedly drive change. Sure the Dodgers have the financial capabilities to outbid nearly every other team for nearly any player they want. That is a sizeable imbalance in and of itself. But starting the trend of deferred salaries on top of that??? That just makes it straight up unfair. Yes any team CAN do the same, but clearly not to the extent the Dodgers can/are. Yes the Dodgers are still subject to luxury tax penalties, as the average player salary is counted toward the comp balance threshold, but if you are not paying the salaries out of pocket then of course they can afford ANY luxury tax penalty. It only makes the top players MORE affordable. Cities and states will be putting pressure on the league to tighten up contracts as well. The prime driver of this is Ohtani's deferred contract. California is pissed. They are in position to lose out on potentially MILLIONS fo dollars of taxes from Ohtani's deal. Shohei has $68M per year deferred until starting in 2034, Beginnign in 2034 he gets $68M per year for 10 years, that is $680M in deferred income. if/when Ohtani is done playing by 2034, he can simply move out of state and not have to pay California's income tax at roughly 13.3% that is a loss of tax revenue of over $70M dollars!! All while playing in a publicly funded stadium. It is easy to see why such deferred salaries (as fun as Bobby Bonilla day is), will be coming to an end. The simplest proposal, and one that I have been championing for years is to include or allow "Fluid Contracts". A Fluid Contract would allow the owners to spread out a players salary however they see fit, but 100% of the salary must be paid by the end of the contract. This gives teams better control/flexibility over their financials from year to year, would benefit player salaries, and help spread out top talent. You just determine a number of fluid salaries a team can have active at any time. EXAMPLE: Player A signs a 10 year $200M (round numbers for simple math) and AAV of $20M. Instead of being "locked in" to set amounts each year, The team pays whatever they want each year, frontloading, backloading, or balancing the contract as they go. At the start of the year there is a minimum amount a player must be paid annually. Again for simple math, let's say that is $1M, the team submits initial payroll to MLB by opening day. then the team submits a FINAL salary for those players sometime later in the season, let's say after the trade deadline. This gives team flexibility to better manage their payrolls from year to year and deal with unexpected costs, or unanticipated windfalls. This would also allow teams to manage luxury tax penalties. This would allow teams to get under the penalty for a year to reset and still retain their players. This is a win for players, because by giving such unique flexibility to owners, the players could command/demand higher salaries. In order to help ensure EVERY team benefits from these contracts, and big market teams do not just use this as a way to lock in even MORE talent, You put a limit on the number of fluid contracts each team can have. say 3-5 per team. This way a player (presumably a top player who would be "worthy" of a fluid contract, that may come with a higher AAV) may be more incentivized to sign with a team other than the big market teams, as well as giving smaller market teams to make more competitive offers. This would help spread talent out across the league. Could get even more creative, and include potential draft picks in trades, If a team wants to trade for a player on a fluid contract, but they are at their limit, they could either trade one away, OR, they could trade away a first round draft pick to acquire an additional Fluid Contract. By and large it would be smaller market teams trading fluid players to bigger market teams, so this would help them rebuild faster. Players may see this as a bit of a restriction, but this could easily be offset by getting rid of the Qualifying Offer where teams have to give up draft picks to sign one. Being tagged with QA draft pick compensation has shown to DRASTICALLY reduce the earning potential of all but the very best QA FA. and allowing 1st round trades to acquire additional fluid contracts would act in the same way to protect small market teams. I believe simply reshaping contracts like this would have a great positive impact on the game, and even hopefully prevent a lock out/strike. This would benefit players, because with

Straw Man Article

This sounds liek a kind fo dumb question, as the Twins do not need another excuse to not spend money. But from a somewhat ignorant perspective of how contracts are impacted going into and coming out of new CBAs, I am wondering if the potential/expected work stoppage next year will impact how the Twins handle the offseason. Do teams typically not sign multi year deals with free agents going into the final year of CBAs? or does it really not matter? I am guessing a team like the Twins would want as much flexibility, or as little on the books as possible going into the potential unknown of what some details of the next CBA may look like. If so, would this give the Twins even more cover to not spend? Does anyone have any thoughts, or recommend any good articles on the impact of a potential strike/lockout on this years offseason?

The moves listed below are not moves I would WANT to do, and I know the returns on some of my moves will never happen. However in a game of "What Would You Do" working with the assumption Ownership is looking to slash payroll, and then you have to look at the best way to rebuild here ae my moves... The No Brainers... I dont like these first 2, but if the name of the game is payroll reduction then the guys at the top have to go, and they should provide quality returns. * I would move both Ryan and Lopez, both controllable top of the rotation starters should command a premium, and the key to a quicker rebuild. But this shouldn't be a last trade deadline salary dumping situation, we need top talent in return. Buxton we keep. Yes I said those at the top must go, but Buxton is different. Yes you could trade at peak value coming off one of his best seasons, but you need SOME transitional players for the fan base. Bailey Ober? - Wont get much in trade for him, so do you just non tender? at projected $6.8M I think that may just be the move. Sad but brutal and possibly needed move. Jeffers? tough one, if Tait were closer Id say move him, but Tait still a bit away. If we can get other replacement catching value once teams clear 40 man space then we move Jeffers. Larnach - Gone Wallner - Id roll with. All of the above (minus Buxton) clears $40M and leaves us with about $66M on the books. Now who/what should we go after in trades? First lets look at what we keep to build around. Buxton stays, and stays in CF, but will transition to conrer OF/DH in near future. I keep Wallner in either current corner OF/DH. 2B looks like Keaschall's spot. Could he be another Julien??? possibly but lets give him the shot. SS Currently Brooks Lee, we also have Culpepper knocking on the door. 3B Currently Lewis, but if he still has any trade value I would move him (and that kills me) if we can get replacemnt 3B in any deals. SO mainly looking at 1B, possibly 3B, another corner OF, and possibly C. I say we build our position strength before going to pitchers, especially when pitching prospects flame out more than position prospects. The absolute clear #1 player to go after at ANY cost is the Ranger's Sebastian Walcott. I would overpay, even significantly to get Walcott. Would a Ryan or Lopez straight up be an overpay or an underpay? I am not sure, but I would even be willing to give BOTH if needed... possibly both for Walcott plus Evan Carter? Anyways, regardless of the package Walcott has to be the focus. Walcott can take 3B or SS (enabling a move of Lewis). and if we also get Carter in a random deal then that help fill the OF spot. Secondly we go after 1B. I choose plan A Tristan Casas!! He should be gettable with a decent offer. a slight overpay here is also worth it. My plan B is Dominic Smith, low cost experienced player with above average Defense and a decent bat, I would take him over Clemens. at Catcher, Seattle has Big Dumper, so would they move Harry Ford? would Cubs move Ballesteros? either could be a good 2 year window waiting on Tait. So with a rough lineup of: 1B = Casas/Smith 2B = Keaschall 3B = Lewis (or ideally Walcott) SS = Lee/Culpepper (or Walcott) LF = Evan Carter CF Buxton RF = Wallner DH = Rotation/TBD (lets also not forget Jenkins will join the team soon, so we could move Wallner to DH and have an OF of Buxton/Jenkins/Carter). We also have Rodriguez (although I trade him, he cant stay healthy) or Gonzalez both near ready as well - Gonzalez could be a Plan C at 1B. Regardless a lineup like that at a payroll roughly around $66M... that could allow us to get frisky/risky in short term FA pitchers. I would target veterans who may still have at least a 1/4 tank left and can show young pitchers how to train and go about the art of pitching. It is here I say we give Verlander and Scherzer basically matching 2-3 year deals at $10M each. They will not get multi year deals anywhere else. even if they dont pan out they are not long term deals and we are still less than $90M with them. If they pitch well we can flip them at the deadline. they will also sell tickets, especially if Verlander can get back to 15 Ws per season and approach 300W by the third year. we have a rotation of (in no particular order) Verlander, Scherzer, and a hodge podge of SWR, Zebby, Taj, Abel, Rojas. by definition, during a rebuild, there will be parts of your roster that will be challening, I say we gut cost and pitching, get a young position core in place that is cost controlled, and then 2027 (if there is a season) we have another year of development of our young pitchers as well as then being in position to go after pitching FA

Ahh, ok so kind of normal then?

Maybe I haven't been paying attention, but have the Pohlad's shared the names of the minority owners yet? If not why hasn't that information been shared? Has MLB not yet approved the sale and they are waiting on that? If MLB has approved the sale, what is the point of NOT sharing new owners? With the hatred and vitriol towards the Pohlads (and rightfully so), wouldn't competent ownership be excited about sharing details of the new investors? Help distract from the stench of their own incompetence and try and build SOME sort of excitement that things may be different. Could there be a "Timberwolves Styles" sale agreed upon that they do not want to let details get out? With the CBA expiring after this coming year, and a potential lock out on the horizon, could these new owners have potentially paid down the Twins debt as a bit of "Good Faith" money? Where the final closing price is determined by the outcome of the next CBA??? This just SEEMS secretive and weird, but maybe it is normal. Does anyone have any additional info or thoughts??

Close to the only thing I would trade Ryan for is to Texas for Sebastian Walcott. DO that straight up and you got a deal

Of course there is no indication that Correa would waive his No Trade, the Yankee fan base may not like him, and Spencer Jones COULD be Joey Gallo 2.0, BUT... How much sense would a Correa for Jones move make. As this is typed Volpe again had a throwing error costing 2 runs in the 1st. Yanks desperately want to upgrade at SS. Positionally it is a perfect fit. Financially it is a perfect fit. Twins want to slash salary, and while the Yanks dont WANT to add salary they can afford to. Pair this with another aggressive move of trying to get Sebastian Walcott from Texas for Duran (and whatever else it would take). This would immediately reopen the window of contention. While just 19, Walcott is playing... and succeeding at AA, so he could be SS as soon as mid year 2026, if not out of spring training. Jones is crushing AAA and ready for the Bigs now. He can slot in at either corner OF spot or DH right now. But it all comes back to... shoudl the Twins try and move Correa for Jones?

Even the most optimistic of Twins fans now has to realize it is time to sell. Another day and another loss to another last place team. Out of the break the Twins had a chance to make a statement with 6 of first 9 games against last place teams the Rockies and the Nationals. They did not disappoint. From making a statement anyways, just not the statement we were hoping for. Becoming the first team to lose a series ALL YEAR to the Rockies, and then losing a 3 game series 2-1 at home against the Nationals. Yes we won 2 of 3 against Dodgers, but cannot put much into that given everything else that has happened, and the Dodgers have been in a funk. SO now there is NOTHING getting in the way of the Twins making moves. Gone is the "soft sell" or "soft rebuild" Now we need to maximize talent in return for top potential trade chips. SELL SELL SELL!!! and not just the Ty Frances and Harrison Baderses of the world. Is Texas a potential new trade partner? and if so how aggressive will they be? With Seager back and healthy again, with deGrom back and healthy again, the Rangers are making their usual 2nd half run. now just 4 games back in the division and .5 out of the wildcard. Texas is looking for a big arm in the bullpen, and could use a RH bat. The Twins can be in position to provide BOTH in one trade!!! Wili Castro may not be a BIG bat, but he is a QUALITY bat and his versatility will offset some of his lack of power. then of course there is Jax and Duran. at this point we should move at least one of them. Just how much would Texas be willing give up to significantly shore up their chances? Would they be Sebastian Walcott willing? I would assume he would be a non starter from Texas' perspective, but would he really?? While he is the #4 overall prospect in the game, and is seen as close to a cant miss as you can have. Prospects are indeed prospects until proven otherwise. A career .257 hitter with a 29% K rate and .783 OPS doesn't scream future HOF, but the kid is only 19 playing at AA. the Rangers challenge their prospects, and the talent is there. Walcott is a SS/3B. Seager is only 31, a perennial MVP candidate and under contract for 6 more years. He is not going anywhere... SS BLOCKED Josh Jung, was a #8 overall pick. While he hasn't really blossomed into his potential is still there. Josh Smith is also serviceable, and both just 27, so while 3B by no means BLOCKED, they can live with what they have there. We need to shoot for the moon and go hard after Walcott, We offer Duran, Castro, and Emmanual Rodriguez. for Walcott. Duran is a proven commodity and has a ton of trade value, dominant arm and controllable for a few more years. Castro was an AllStar, a consistent hitter and the RH bat Texas needs. And yes we throw in Rodriguez. Is this an overpay? possibly, Rodriguez could end up being a perennial Allstar on the level of Walcott or better. But he has just never stayed healthy!!! at this point we can no longer have top prospects with health histories as part of our future plan. As far as Walcott's fit here? We have Correa. Yes he has a no trade clause, but would he waive it to go to a contender? Would he move to 3B to protect his health? Possibly on both, and yes we have Royce Lewis at 3B, but is that still his final home? We wont have to make that call for another 1-2 years. and with Walcott's arm and speed could make a transition similar to Fernando Tatis into the OF. and while having to wait 1-2 years to see anything from trading Duran, Castro and a top prospect of our own may look like a tear down rebuild move, would it really? Yes losing Duran would hurt. but we would still have Jax, and what good is an elite closer if we are not in closing positions? Castro is 99.9% gone after this year anyway as an UFA. So that is not a loss moving forward. Losing Rodriguez could be a short term hit, but again he just cant stay healthy, and if we believe in Walker Jenkins, then he sort of buffers the loss as they both had similar time frames and both are OF. My new Endorsement... Trade Duran and whoever else we need to get Sebastian Walcott!!

I think a great "soft sell" move would be the Twins trading 1 or 2 of Martin, Julien, Miranda to Oakland for Luis Severino. Severino is having a perceived bad year, He actually has value. His split are solid away from that minor league ballpark the As play in, with an ERA of 3.03 on the road vs. 6.68 at home. while he is not a strikeout machine, he i slimiting hitters to a .212 avg on the road vs .303 at home. Giving up .820 OPS at home but just .605 on the road. He just signed a 3 year $67M deal this past offseason. Part of the reason for that is the league mandate that Oakland had to spend to a certain threshhold. I am sure MLB woudl frown on them just trading to slash salaries after that mandate, but they couldnt block a deal based on "baseball sense" So lets say Twins send 1-2 of Julien, Martin, Miranda to Oakland for Severino where Twins take on 100% of remaining salary this year, but Oakland retains 50% the next 2 years. That would basically mean the Twins get Luis Servino on a 2 year deal (after this year at an average of $12M per). 2 years at $24M total would be a great sign as a FA signing of a pitcher of Severinos potential!! If we get the "away" version of Severino for that money that is a STEAL!!! Oakland is not contending this year, and most likely nto until they move to Vegas which is still not until 2028. There is ZERO need to have Severino on the roster, and he wouldn't have been if they weren't forced to spend. Would Severino be better than... Paddack? Zebby? Fest? Bullpen Game? I think so!! and next year with a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, a potentially healthy Ober, Severino, would be a great base for a new ownership group to play with. And none of Martin, Julien, Miranda, etc will be part of the future anyways. Build for the future without "selling" now.

Such a weird position, Having a record better than only 3 teams in the AL screams SEL SELL SELL!!! At the same time a team being only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot screams BUY BUY BUY!!! Especially for a cheap... I mean financially challenged team like the Twins. That Playoff revenue would be such a welcome bonus. The Twins have a good number of peices that wont, or shouldn't be back next year so should we move them now if there is any value? Twins also have some decent prospects that may "rot on the vine" or otherwise never fully materialize that currently may have decent value for some win now upgrades. All of that being said there is ONE move I would love to see us make that could be both a BUY and s SELL. Trade for Ke'Bryan Hayes from Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh may not want to move him, while he is a great defender, maybe they are growing frustrted with his lack of offense and woudl consider moving him. They are also a small market team who would like his salary, butif they had a young replacement maybe they would move on. PROs: 1) Hayes is affordable!!! He is under team control for another 4 years with a team option for the 5tth. at $7M, $7M, $8m, $8m with teh team option of $12M when he will still only be 30!! 2) he is a Gold Glove 3B!! He won GG at 3b in 2023 and is the clear front runner this year as well. 3) He is young 4) a great teammate 5) decent to good speed CONs: 1) and really only 1, but is it too big of one? or can it eventually change? and that is his bat. Can we afford to take on a bat like his at a "power position" ? not optimal, but with the defense that comes with it I will take it. especially at that salary!! This move could also allow us to move Lewis to... FIRST??? Lewis's injuries have not been from fielding, they have been from running, so this wouldnt completely prevent recurring injuries, but it could help take SOME wear and tear off of him. With Hayes and Correa at 3B & SS that is as good a left side of infield as you will get. Even if Correa is aging. Moving Brooks Lee over to 2B (or Keaschall when he returns) and an IF of Lewis, Brooks/Keaschall/Correa/Hayes would be a nice core. Would we need to give up a Lee or a Keaschall to get him? maybe but I think that would still be worth it. A proven commodity vs unproven talent.

Wallner has ALWAYS struggled early in seasons in his careers, and has ALWAYS (or nearly always) come on strong in second halves. I expect nothing different this year.

If there is NOT interest in Dom Smith on the Twins part, there SHOULD be. With Lewis to start the season on the IL, this means Brooks Lee will... oops maybe not... I mean Miranda will most likely start out at 3B. Our injury history shows we will need depth. Hopefully Lewis can overcome the latest lower body injury miss little time and play at a high level the rest of the year. Broosk Lee has a known chronic back issue, an dhas missed time every year because of it. He should be used primarily as trade bait. hopefully he can get healthy, put up numbers to boost his trade value, but either way he is out again. for how long who knows. Mickey Gasper apparently went out with a potential significant injury. just the THOUGHT of Gasper would be uttered in a sentence when talking about legitimate Twins plans is scary. But he has had a good spring. If Gasper is out an extended period, then his 40 man spot should be used for another player. Dom Smith is suddenly a very solid addition. He has experience in the OF, and while yet another LH OF seems overly redundant, Dom also has value at 1B, where he is an above average defender. HE would be a great platoon player with Ty France. Who else woudl play 1B with righties on the mound? Julien?? Castro?? The Twins could get him on the cheap after he opted out of his minor league deal in New York with a strong Spring. I am not hoping for a significant injury to Gasper, but if there is the best move the Twins can make is to sign Dom Smith.

Why is Brock Stewart a lock? he had 1 good season in 2023, and then another back in 2017. he was average at best last year. Castellano should be ahead o fhim. Why is Tonkin a lock? he was pretty good last year, but I would again take Castellano over him. Coulombe I can see. he is/was good and a lefty. Swap out Tonkin and Stewart with Castellano and Alcala and you got yourself a bullpen

The Twins would be remiss if they didnt inquire on a Yankees trade involving Pablo Lopez. I have mentioned this before in other ramblings. But with both the Gerrit Cole TJ confirmation and Stanton looking toast, The Twins owe it to themselves to try and go big. Lopez last year had an up and down year, a bad first 3 months then a good july and August, followed by an average September. I love Lopez, I think we all love Lopez. While it was just 1 year, and it wasn't a HORRIBLE year, it still was his highest ERA, WHIP, and BAA since 2019. Is it a sign of things to come as he starts the 1st of 3 years at $21.5M? If we cant get much for him, then it is worth keeping him and assuming the blip. If we could get a strong return, then the Twins should consider movign him (somewhat sadly). How can we get a haul? Even the Yankees hit a payroll threshold at some point, and given they tried trading away Stroman and his $18M during offseason I think shows they are at that point. They wouldnt be super excited about taking on $21M, even for a top of the rotation arm like Lopez. so how do we incentivize? By taking back salary from them. Trading Lopez would not be a salary dumping move by the Twins at this point, it would be an asset collecting move. Stanton will be lucky to provide the Yankees anything this year... possibly ever??? So lets have the Twins take him on and his Salary. We eat 100% of his salary this year and the Yanks eat the remaining salary for future years. Heck for the right value in return it wouldn't be horrible for the Twins to take on the entire contract. For this year Stanton's $32M would be partially offset by movign Lopez's $21.5M. and if we throw in a potential lefty DH like Larnach in the deal that is another $2M. so this deal would increase our payroll by about $8M thi syear and not add talent to the roster. This doesnt sound good at face value. BUT... the next 2 years of Stantons deal are $29M and $25M, of which Miami is still paying $10M each year, so the cost to the Twins would be $19M and $15M. vs Lopez's $21.5M each year, if you look at it over a 3 year span it is a break even proposition. (and this trade brings up potential side trade below). Lets say Yankees retain the $19M and $15M that is not owed by Miami over the next 2 years, and we eat the full salary for this year. If we send Lopez and say a lefty DH/OF in Larnach. could we get either George Lombard (1st option) or Spencer Jones (2nd option) .. or both???? If we could get either of them, then this screams to be done, as mentioned while we increase payroll this year by $8M, if the Yankees eat payroll the next 2 years then we clear $21.5M each of the next 2 years. That alone is a win. 1 year of "wasted"$8M in exchange for $43M saving over the next 2 years, PLUS get a top prospect?? PLUS... We would have an inside track on the option to trade for a pitcher at the trade deadline to replace the quality of Lopez. We all know Miami is going to be horrible again, we all know Miami will look to move money. With us now owning Stanton's contract, we would have the option of taking on the $10M Miami owes Stanton each of the final years in order to maximize a return. Would a struggling Miami team that is losing money be willing to trade Sandy Alcantara (save his $17.3M) for little return if they are also freed up from the $10M commitment to Stanton? Maybe even Alcantara and Max Meyer in exchange for the $10M annually and an expendable depth piece between Brooks Lee, Eduard Julien, Juan Miranda? The Twins are in position to leverage our rotational depth to get a top prospect(s) from the Yankees, and even resecure/upgrade rotational depth.

A team like the Twins needs to always be internally theorizing moves at every level in every situation. Twins cannot simply just buy talent on the open market. They must try and leverage situations when situations arise. Could such a situation have just arrived in New York? Gerrit Cole has a barking elbow. An elbow that more and more are believing to be potentially season ending. Of course we need to wait and see exactly what the tests reveal. That is a huge blow to a team that has a mandate of winning every year. year in and year out. There are other pitching concerns as well. Luis Gil, the reigning AL ROY will be starting the season on the IL and will miss a few months. This leaves the Yankees with the following potential rotation. * Max Fried. a legit starter, they are good here * Carlos Rodon. Has the potential to flash ACE stuff, but inconsistent and has his own injury history. Can they rely on him? Rodon has not put back to back full seasons together since breaking into the league in 2015. * Marcus Stroman. he of the "will anyone please take him off of our hands?!?!?!" ilk. a 4.31 era last year is not HORRIBLE, he hasnt had an era above 4.00 before last year since 2018. He is still serviceable, but that is possibly his ceiling at this point? and the Yankees clearly are not sold on him. * Clark Schmidt. He had a good bounce back season last year and a 2.85 ERA is great. but averaging less than 5 innings per start isnt exactly an innings eater in the rotation. it makes him a good #4. * Carlos Carrasco. I guess we have to include him here right? I mean he does have a pulse, and he is on the roster. While I loves me some Carrasco, he is just not a season long starter * Will Warren. a 25 year old top pitching prospect for the Yanks. while he had a bad debut last year he has some stuff and is turning heads this spring, but again unproven in New York is scary!! With all of this in mind, just how desperate are/should the Yankees be to improve their rotation? And back to the Twins, how aggressive should they be to actually HELP the Evil Empire? And at what cost? The Yankees would not give up major league talent, as they would be looking to contend if they are bringing pitching. So we would be looking at the prospect market. Next internal questions should be: 1) What is in the Yankees System we would want? 2) What would it cost to get them? now back to the original question... WOULD/SHOULD we move pitching to help NY? We have perceived depth, but how much of the quality would we move for prospects? Lombard is most likely untouchable, and Jones is intriguing. But what if the Twins offered Pablo Lopez, a potential Ace or #2 starter in that rotation. and lets say we add a Trevor Larnach/Matt Wallner as a possible replacement for Stanton. Lopez and Larnach/Wallner for George Lombard and/or Spencer Jones.