Reverse Engineering a Trevor Larnach Trade
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The Twins have not done much, for good or for bad, to alter their OF/DH depth. Yes Twins signed Josh Bell. Another reclamation project who could be decent. Actually not a bad move given our situation and history, but not a game changer. Yes Twins signed Victor Caratini, again maybe another slight upgrade at back up C and possible 1B ABs, but again no game changer.
The Twins still have redundancy issues and need to clear space at some time this year for a potential Tsunami of young OF. Emmanual Rodriguez (bats lefty) could be ready this year (unless he once again misses chunks of time with injuries). I think the best move is to trade his potential for pitching, but let's assume the Twins do not feel the same way. Obviously Walker Jenkins (bats lefty)is a freight train coming, will it be 2026? Gabriel Gonzalez (bats righty)could also be a player in 2026. He has only had 1 bad year in the minors in 2024 where he had some injury issues, after a "get right" year in 2025 he is poised for more.
Any single one of them could get quality ABs in the Twins OF this year, so who is blocking them?
1) Byron Buxton. He is going nowhere. The only place he is going is to a corner OF spot in the next year or two.
2) Matt Wallner. as of now he is not going anywhere. He will flameout here before the Twins move him. He still has a lot of those "P" words. Power and Potential. Absolute worst case he stays in a platoon situation with??? (Gabriel Gonzalez anyone???)
3) Trevor Larnach. very similar (I.E. redundant) to Wallner, but 1 year older, $3.5M more expensive, less strikeouts and higher avg. but less power and significantly wekaer arm in the OF.
Josh Bell removes some DH ABs which pushes Larnach back to more OF ABs.
It is clear the person to move is Larnach. He is still decent to good, still has some power, and still relatively cheap (for most clubs). SO... where does he go?
The Twins will obviousl ywait for Belli, and any other OF to sign as a FA before engaging in talks with teams who came up empty, But lets take a look at potential trade partners by reverse engineering a trade.
1) What ballpark is the best fit? What ballpark give sup the most LH HR?
2) What Teams have the best positonal fit?
3) What teams have the best prospect fit?
#1 ballpark fit:
4 that stand out are Cinci, Orioles, Yankees, As (with their temp stadium until the Vegas stadium opens). Honorable Mention Red Sox.
We do not need too much discussion here, this is pure data. these are the stadiums giving up the most HR to LH hitters.
#2 Positional Fit: What teams have a need to fill what Larnach can plug?
CINCINATTI: Cinci was 21st in HR last year while their ballpark giving up the most LH HR in the game. the only addition is JJ Bleday. I cannot see him being the answer. There is a positional fit here with weak OF/DH options overall. and a right handed heavy lineup. GOOD FIT
YANKEES: with Stanton/Judge/Rice as potential DHs they are all either better or cheaper for that spot, in the OF there is Judge, Grisham, Dominguez in the OF with Gallo in the wings. Unless they give up Gallo or Stanton to get Larnach (which they will not move Gallo for Larnach, and Twins wont take Stanton's money...but they should)I do nto see a big need here. I do not even see a huge need for Belli. BAD POSITIONAL FIT
ORIOLES: With Alonso, Basallo, and Mayo they have DH (and 1B) covered, unless Trevor changes his name to Larnacho there is no fit at DH. With Cowser, Ward, and O'neill in OF I do not see LArnach as a significant upgrade there. Add in OF prospects Beavers and Bradfield and I so not see a fit here. BAD POSITIONAL FIT
As (or whatever they are/will be called: 1B & Dh are locked down with Kurtz & Rooker (unless As want to move Rookers salary.. still a couple years away from Vegas and Rooker is already 31). Soderstrom and Bulter are presumable locks and future pieces in OF, however Larnach would be an upgrade over current RF starter Colby Thomas. With few significant OF prospects on the verge. DECENT POSITIONAL FIT
Red Sox: as a flier including the Sox because of Fenway. There OF is STACKED!!! but could some ABs at DH: BELOW AVG POSITIONAL FIT
PROSPECT FIT:
YANKEES: Lets make this quick. Larnach does not improve them. NOTHING TO SEE HERE MOVE ALONG
ORIOLES: See Yankees. NOTHING TO SEE HERE MOVE ALONG
RED SOX: Sox could use a DH, and some 1B reps if Casas is not healthy, if Casas is healthy then Larnach is a redundant yet less potential piece with Casas. Would want to trade for pitching, but in a deal here I think both sides would do a Larnach for Miguel Bleis deal. Bleis star has fallen significantly, yet he is the type of player Twins love to bring in. one with tons of past potential hoping to catch lightening in a bottle. DOUBTFUL DEAL
CINCINATTI: Reds/Twins have history with trades, and I would say deals that helped both clubs, is there enough "there there" to do another? Would Cinci trade back CES? Would they send Petty back? Petty hasnt developed as a #1 pick would typically, but still young, CES has the dangerous potential but injury history, either of them would come with cost savings of at least $3.5M
As: The As are an absolute wild card. What are they doing? are they building a core? looking to the future in Vegas? either way they have the potential to compete now, which means they most likely wouldn't move Rooker. But they are also a small market team that was actually MANDATED by the league to spend a minimum. Which is why they signed Severino. If they go cost conscious route, Do they think Rooker's contract will age poorly? and Larnach with the savings will be a good move? Would they want to move off of Severino's $25M this year and $22M PO next? and if so would it be worth it for the Twins to spend that money? Severino's splits away from teh joke minor league ballpark the As played in were actually quite good. I could also see a lottery ticket prospect like 17 year old Darwing Ozuna as a flier if our own prospects seem ready to take over this year.
OVERALL: I still believe Larnach will get moved. I see the A's as a serious team to watch, Larnach fits a need in a cost conscious market with a positional need that is actually in a contention window. I do not think the A's are incompetent enough to say they are moving salary because of finances after surprising 2025 results and new found optimism, I mean what competent organization would do that? So would a Rooker or Severino be gettable? I doubt it but It take it. I see LArnach to A's for a prospect or two. and if going prospect hunting by moving a redundant piece I say go the lottery ticket route.
Backup prediction is a deal with Cinci, they could use a bat at a decent price. Twins/Reds have a history, has the bloom come off CES in Cinci? I'd take him back!!!


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