Doc Munson

UM... trading for injured pitchers is EXACTLY the Twins MO. HAHA

OK, first off, yes I am old school. I HATE platooning, and what I hate even more is strictly pinch hitting RH for LH, especially young players. How the heck is a lefty gonna learn how to hit a lefty if never given the chance??? And what makes no sense to me even MORE is pinch hitting in the 6th inning or earlier!!! I wish there was some smart analytics guy out there who coudl run stats and prove me either right or wrong. even if proven right I HATE managing purely by analytics. But anyone who has watched the Twins can probably guess that I am talking about the obsession with pinch hitting for Wallner. YES he is horrid against lefties, but is pinch hitting Manuel Margot for Wallner... IN THE 6TH INNING any better? You cannot take just the current AB into account, you have to take into account future ABs. First, why would you pinch hit Margot for Wallner? Well on the surface Margot has a .281 avg a .341 OBP and .760 OPS to go along with a 109 WRC+ against lefites. Wallner? oh a just touch worse at .119 avg .188 OBP and a .442 OPS to go along with an unsightly 21 WRC+. CLEARLY pinch hitting Margot was the right decision right???? NO!! This was the 6th inning, which means you are GUARANTEED to have Wallners spot come up again later in the game no matter what happens.(not to mention if it would go to extras) What are teh chances that Wallner would be facing another LHP in his next AB? lets go ahead and put that one at 0.00%. Why??? Because Herrin is the ONLY LH reliever on the Cleveland roster!!! SO now you have to factor in the GUARANTEED matchup of either/both Margot and Wallner when facing RHP to determine the overall probable success rate. but first let's go back to the Pinch hitting scenario in the 6th. Wallner is pinch hit for with 2 outs and nobody on. Now the expected Probability of scoring a run with 2 outs an nobody on is 4.48% (just did a Google). So even if Wallner strikeouts out there, there is still a 95% probability that we would score the same amount of runs leaving Wallner in there as we would when pinch hitting Margot. So here is the first analytic data point showing it was a HORRIBLE (yet sadly predictable) move. Now if there was a runner in scoring position, and all we needed was a single, or even extend the inning with a walk, then it could make sense, as Margot's average is 162 points higher than Wallners against lefties. But again we did not, we needed either a HR, or multiple productive plate appearances in a row to score. again only 4.48% scoring probability. SO we are at neutral AT BEST for that pinch hitting situation in a vacuum, now lets take into account at least one (possibly more should the possibility of extra innings come in to play). What are each of their numbers against RHP in their careers? Margot = .244 avg .294 OBP .663 OPS and a 81 WRC+. SO not overly good. Wallner = .274 avg .401 OBP .935 OPS with a 161 WRC+. Basically pretty darn good!!! Of course since we would not know at the time what the situation of the next AB is (except we ae guaranteed a RHP) so we cannot say what would be needed the most, but by ANY metric, Wallner is the CLEAR preferred batter!!! need a base hit? Wallner 30 points higher. Need a walk? Wallner 107 points higher OBP. Need an extra base hit? Wallner 272 point higher OPS. in actuality (which you cant take later results into consideration when making a decision, but as it turns out it would have been even MORE advantageous to have had Wallner in in the 8th). That next AB turned out to be with Correa on 2nd and 1 out.. (as it turns out a runner on 2nd with 1 out you score at least 1 run 41.4% ot the time so you would have had a better chance to get the better probability of scoring a run with Wallner than Margot, but again that is in retrospect). Bottom line... HORRIBLE move to pinch hit Manuel Margot for Wallner in the 6th inning with 2 out and nobody on against a team that has no other LHP to use against us in later innings. It is not only the wrong managerial decision, but it is painfully horrible baseball to watch. Now I will go back to yelling at clouds and shooing kids off my lawn.

As has been mentioned in previous posts, the Marlins desperately want... NEED... to move salary. The only thing that had prevented the Marlins from selling off pitching prior to the start f the season was the fact that they made the playoffs last year. How would that look? dismantling the strength of a team on the heels of a playoff appearance? It was abundantly clear that with the Braves being the Braves, and Philly improving, that at best Miami was a third place team and most likely out of the playoff chase. Early on I figured about 1 month the front office would realize they are not a playoff team. Could this realization come after just 8 games??? Starting 0-8 should help clarify their true standing this year. The Twins should be in position just 6 games into the season to make a big move. Call up Miami, NOW, find out what it would take to get both Jesus Luzardo and Alcantara. Luzardo immediately upgrades our rotation this year, and the pairing of Luzardo and Alcantara next year with Pablo, Ryan, and that leaves pitchers like Ober and Paddack as #5 starters. While this move is 100% focused on improving our roster this year, it sets us up incredibly well next year and beyond. With both pitchers on board next year the Twins would have the following potential starters under team control... Alcantara through 2027 Luzardo through 2026 Pablo through 2027 Ryan through 2027 Ober through2027 Paddack just through next year that's a solid 6 deep And we haven't even spoken about the young arms who should be ready to fill in gaps such as... Varland, Festa, Raya, Soto, and others So what would it take? and would it be worth it? It will take some top tier talent for sure. If Lewis had not been injured... AGAIN, I would suggest it would be worth moving Lee. Now he has even more long term value for Twins if Lewis is Buxton Jr. How about Emmanual Rodriguez to headline a deal? If Jenkins can stay in CF long term, then that makes Rodriguez a bit more expendable. would a package of either Rodriguez or Gonzalez, along with something like Danny De Andrade, Yunior Severino, and a top 20 Twins pitching prospect get a deal done? If not what should the Twins give up for that pair of starters If...WHEN Miami makes them available?

NONE of these 3 points speak to why the Twins trade for injured pitchers like stated in title. 1) The "all pitchers have injuries" an dincluding pitchers who are currently injured such as Cole has ZERO legit comparison. PLUS all of the Twins trade targets had injury histories as recently as the previous year that they had been battling, and never fully recovered from, it is not like Cole who has been reliable and now suddenly having an injury. Every one of our pitchers have come with KNOWN, and RECENT injury histories. 2) The front office refusing to leverage the farm for frontline starting pitching is pointless as well. First it takes two to make a deal, Miami has more frontline pitching and they traded none of it. am sure others were interested as well. Chicago was never going to trade us Cease in the division. You mentioned the Mahle trade, they gave up top prospects there (but again for an injured pitcher) so they ARE willing to move prospects. Also you seem to ignore trading away the recent 1st rounder in Chase Pety who is now a top 100 prospect and still just 20, Finally the trade to get Pablo while not trading prospects, they traded the reigning batting champion which shows even MORE of a willingness to trade quality. So basically they ARE willing to trade when the deal is right, 3) Giving large contracts to pitchers just doesn't always work??? um well DUH!!! but that is not the supposed point of this article. giving big contracts has nothing to do with why the Twins would trade for injured pitchers,

The Twins and Dodgers have done a few trades over the past few years, including most recently the trade for Margot. Of course the one that comes to mind that really benefitted both clubs was the Kenta Maeda trade that brought Graterol to the Dodgers. Could/should the Twins Dodgers look to make another potential win/win trade? Take away both teams potential needs for starting pitching. Dodgers due to injuries, and Twins due to an unproven rotation, and there seems to be a perfect matchup here for a trade. The Twins thought they "solved" their RH OF issue by trading for Margot, but really that was a dud from the get go. Margot was not significantly better than anyone on the Twins roster or in the Twins system. There is another player would completely fit, and we will get to that name shortly, but first the Dodgers "need". the Dodgers love Gavin Lux's bat, so much so that they have moved him to 2B and have moved Mookie Betts once again. This time to SS. Now Betts very well may make the transition to SS without any issues and not risk injury or any negative impact to his offense, but do you REALLY want to risk that?? For a unproven bat, even with his potential? Plus the kid is already 26. I would suggest that the Dodgers may be open to acquiring a SS upgrade, even if it means jettisoning Lux. HMMMM, what team that we all know and love seems to have a middle infield glut? I COULD say the Twins should involve Correa in a trade if the Twins truly are concerned about their finances, but who wants to have such a major shakeup of a potential contending roster this close to the start of the season? Not to mention I actually like Correa on this team. Correa then is set at SS. Lewis is not going anywhere, an he is set at 3B. Julien is presumably set at 2B (or even a slide to 1B for future infield set up), and he is purely a 2B, Dodgers would need a SS in this scenario. That leaves Brooks Lee as a potential option to be moved. Yes, I love Lee as much as the next person, and I think he COULD be a long time Twins great. And there are options fo rhim to get AB's this year, as well as starting next year if we do move Julien to 1B, but there is a bat I love in the Dodgers system, one that fits our needs. I say we reach out to the Dodgers, offer the Dodgers Brooks Lee in exchange for Adny Pages (plus another player such as Maddux Burns who has a high upside arm). Pages is near MLB ready, if not MLB ready right now, the only reason he has not made debut yet, was a shoulder injury he suffered last year. which he has shown he is recovered from. The kid has massive power, the most power in the Dodgers system, he has a cannon of an arm equal to, if not better than Wallner, decent to above average speed. Most of all, he is a right handed hitting outfielder. HE checks every box the Twins need to compliment the lineup, PLUS he is young and can be a core piece in the future, and is ready right now. Pages would be the PERFECT platoon with Wallner in 2024, and then transition next year to an OF of Pages, Buxton, Wallner. (Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez are all AT LEAST 1 year away). Both have huge power, and hit opposite pitching well. both have huge arms. and if we get a pitcher liek Maddux Bruns as well (Dodgers #16 overall) with a big armed lefty with tons of potential (albeit control issues). A trade with Dodgers centered around Lee and Pages coudl be another one of those (although tougher to swallow) win/win trades.

IMHO reduction in starting pitchers innings has little to nothing to do with starters striving for higher spin rates and higher velocity, or even to the fact of people wanting to protect their arms. If they were looking to protect their arms they would be wanting to protect their arms FOR something. and what is that FOR in todays game? It is not liek they are protecting young arms so they can go deeper in games later in their career, or later in games in "BIG TIME GAMES". AT some point it morphs from "protecting arms" to "He's never gone more than X innings" to after a number of years... "he has X number of innings under his arm". Ultimately it is all about analytics, and the fact that it is not the STARTING pitchers with increased velocity and spin rate, but EVERYONE has higher spin rate and velocity., and more about analytics and the philosophy of the game. If a manager feels there is a 1.75% better chance of getting through an inning by bringing a fresh arm (with that high velocity and spin rate) as oppose to letting a pitcher face a lineup for a third time. then it does not matter how much of a spin rate that starter has, or how much velocity that starter has, the manager is going to pull the starter and bring in the "fresh arm". For good or for bad (for me it is for bad, btu that is just my preference) the game has changed, Anyone of these pitchers in teh gaem today COULD go 8 innings consistently, and COULD throw 250+ innings per year. It may have STARTED by wanting to protect pitchers arms when starters started getting paid big bucks, but the main driver now is the analytics, and the fact that you can use your farm system to constantly rotate fresh bullpen arms through. Analytics has just simply "devalued" the starting pitcher (ironically despite quality starting pitching getting more and more expensive each year).

I am torn... But I will say my biggest issue with Pohlad, is you don't come out and SAY "we need to right size". Its not my money, so I shouldnt have a say, BUT... There is a time to be financially prudent, and a time to push the boundaries. Coming off of last year is the time to push the boundaries, and by pushing the boundaries I mean "do not handcuff" teh team. even signing a $30M player You can still come in under last years salary. As everyone has noted contracts like Farmer, Vasquez, Kepler, that is $26M right there. We come off last season, where we break through the playoff curse. Royce looks like a special player, the hopes of Correa being healthy, and Buxton being healthy ( I will pause right here for laughter to subside).. Having a good young core adding Julien and Brooks Lee nearly ready, Matt Wallner showing promise as a slugger, and Pablo being an ace... AND basking in the wave of excitement of Joe Mauer being elected 1st ballot... and a very winnable division, and NOT the time to say need to right size. I don't even mind them not making any more additions (if they dont) as long as they make a move at the deadline. But you just don't talk about right sizing right now, you capitalize on the goodwill and excitement. You are going to go after any of the remaining big FA, no worries, just KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT!! and now there are MLBPA grievances being filed. I do not know what any potential punishments could be, but I am guessing fines (which lose some of that precious $$ you are saving by right sizing) or could we lose draft pick?? But what I REALLY want to hear then is... When in the next couple of years the $4.4B (or more) that gets distributed amongst the owners with 2 new expansion teams in a couple years, are we going to "re-right size" and spend more? Ill just sit here holding my breathe. All of that being said, I am excited for this team this year and will enjoy the team whether we spend more or not.

In a previous post I had posited that the Twins should not make any moves for pitchers unless thay HAD to. There is no NEED for a Postseason Starter until/if you make the postseason, os hang onto trade chips until you need to cash them. Signing a FA however is a different story, even though a quality signing would necessitate dumping some salary, and that is different than trading young prospects for quality pitching.. I wouldn't touch Blake Snell. even though he has 2 Cy Youngs, he just doesnt go deep enough into games (although that would actually make him a perfect fit for our philosophy). JOrdan Montgomery would be a great cherry on the top of this offseason.. Currently the Twins project to be at roughly $123M for the season. There has been "talk" of up to $140M on the budget with a redone TV deal in place. While that is still $20M below last years payroll, it still leaves $17M on the table. Montgomery is apparetly looking for something bigger than teh Aaron Nola deal which was 7 years $172M. or basically $25M per season.. at 31 years old you would be buying the back half of his 30's as a premium, that being said he has been for the most part healthy over the last 3-4 years, and really in another 5 years an average starter will cost darn near $25M. SO I would say that something around a Nola deal would not be a huge overspend. There is however another option, a short term higher AAV with opt outs, similar to the Initial Carlos Correa deal. You sell him on Sonny Gray just signing a 3 year $75M at 3 years his senior after pitching with this team. A full year with 1 team (which he hasn't had in 3 years) pitching in a weak division, with the potential offense the Twins have, and he is a potential 20 game winner if he pitches to his recent season averages of right around 3.00 ball. Lets throw a 3 year $90M deal on the table with opt outs after each year, Include a 4th year $20M option with a $10M buyout to allow him to hit the $100M mark. If we go there, we would need to clear about $13M from the payroll stay within the $140M top end payroll projections. This could be done easily. with ANY combination of moves. The usual suspects: 1) Kyle Farmer has $6.25M on the books. That is a decent amount for a utility infielder, even if he is a decent quality. We still have some depth to replace him even with trading Gordon/Polanco. 2) MAx Kepler has $10M on the books. while losing his defense we have Larnach, Kirilloff (if Santana is primary 1B), plus Castro an possibly Martin who cold claim a spot. That being said while Max could garner the most in trade, I would hate to see him go (coming from the guy who wanted a bag of used BP balls for him last year!!) 3) Christian Vasquez also has $10M on the books. While a good clubhouse guy, Jeffers deserves at least 60% of the ABs from catcher if not more. and $10M for a back up catcher is just irresponsible for a team claiming to have budgetary concerns. Moving JUST TWO... ANY combination of two from above clears enough to bring in Montgomery. In other words, ask yourself this... If Montgomery were a trade candidate and he was making $90M over the next 3 years, and his team offered you him for Kepler an vasquez, would ANYONE say no??? NOPE. After a succesful year 1 with the Twins, and being a Boras client, he would most likely opt out of the remaining 2 years, at which point the Twins can designate him with a QO and get draft pick compensation. And heck, he would be great trade bait in the off chance the Twins arent in contention. Either way you cut it, a short term higher AAV deal, or a longer term deal closer to $25M he would/could be an affordable add. and all the Twins would need to give up is trading away redundant or overpaid pieces and ask for little in return.

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter" because it is not the playoffs. The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows. The Al Central?? not so much. The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch. All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have. Why sacrifice the young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right. The time and the team could come early. Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team. How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants. By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now? Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" Until then, simply carry on.

I will spare everyone my rambling nonsensical, fantastical prognostications. Just a simple question... the Twins need to make 2 roster moves to clear space on the 40 man roster. Who ya got? Who would YOU move? and who do you think THEY will move? 40-Man Roster | Minnesota Twins (mlb.com) I am not sure if I have attached the link to the current 40 man roster correctly, as I have never tried to do a link before, but what are your thoughts? Mine you ask? For once I have no clue what they would do and more importantly no clue what I would do. I am nto educated on all of our releivers, but I would assuem we either signed them or traded for them for a reason. but we cannot move TWO position players, so one relief pitcher has to get DFA'd or traded. As far as position players go... Trading Kepler seems like a move, but even I am starting to think might not be a bad idea to keep him around, and i think his value will only increase as we get closer to season, or in season, and neither Santana, nor the pitcher we signed is worth trading low on Kepler. Sadly I think I see an od man out in Gordon. I dotn see us moving Castro, Bubba Thompson has a specialized skillset, I I could see us cuttign bait of Larnach as well though. IF we could get a marginal prospect for Larnach he would make sense (although I am still a fan of his) Bottom line ilooking at IF it is not a starter, Could trade Farmer, but after moving Polanco he seems a bit more secured.. Martin is listed as an IF, and he has too much versatility and cheap. and Miranda and Severino still have the upside, the dreaded "potential". SO we move an OF. Not Buxton, Not Wallner, not Castro, not Martin (see also IF) nto Kirilloff (who is now listed as OF and if that is accurate that makes Larnach even MORE disposable), Possibly Kepler, but again not the best time to trade out of necesity.. No tRodriguez and not Thompson. That leaves Larnach and Gordon as the only options. But there I broke my promise and rambled... WHo do YOU see gettign moved?

Absolutely LOVE this move!!! While I also liek Martin and other potential system guys for a potential CF replacment, I LOVE SPEED!!!!! if Buck cant play CF just put Bubba in CF and let him bat 9th. If you though Michael A Taylor was a good move at $4.5M for his defense and speed with just 1 year over .677 OPS in his 9 years before coming to the Twins, then you have to LOVE this move, with ++ speed, and although he has just a .591 OPS in short time in the bigs, he has a .765 OPS in minors, and comes at just a league minimum contract.

So you say Twins say no?

While it is often said that the small moves are the moves that typically end up winning championships, blockbusters are much more fun to theorize on. A complete hypothetical MEGA deal here. And in that vane (or is it vein?) lets play another round of "Who Says No??!!" The Twins have some high quality prospects on the position side. Miami has some high quality major league pitchers and pitching prospects. In a trade where Miami moves THREE of its top pitchers for TWO of the Twins top prospects who says no? Miami sending Jesus Luzardo, the injured Alcantara and older prospect Max Meyer in exchange for Brooks Lee and one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins. Alcantara is an absolute ACE!!!, btu he will be lost for the entire 2024. Does Miami want to pay him $9M this year to NOT pitch and $17M in a comeback year next year? chances are probably not. Luzardo ha a breakout year after a strong but limited 2022. but last year was the first year he has pitched over 100 innings. IS he a sell high candidate with 2 more years of control after this year? more than likely. Max Meyer is an uber talented but super high injury risk home town kid. Meyer will be 25 before the start fo the season, while not ancient by any means that is starting to get up there in age for a prospect. He is just now coming back from a full year off due to injury. so there is risk there but also has huge upside. All three of these pitchers have enough warts to make them tradeable, but also enough upside to make them worth the risk. This could be the perfect Now & Later deal for the Twins. They add an immediate #2 (or better) to the rotation for 2024 in Luzardo, have another high upside arm in Meyer who is just starting his arbitration clock, and also have a future ace in Alcantara in the wings for next year. The Twins sending Brooks Lee a top 20 overall prospect as the starting point in this trade could smart a bit, especially if Correa or Lewis lose time due to injury, but it is well worth the risk for top end pitching when we have the infield depth we have with Lewis, Correa, Julien, Farmer, Gordon, Polanco (for now). plus even Austin Martin as a potential utility guy. Just 1 top 20 overall pick does not get this deal done, we would also need to include one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez, or the most recent #5 overall pick Walker Jenkins. Both with potential massive upsides, but also both a couple years out. Personally I would rather move Rodriguez than Jenkins, but that might be filed under "DUH" since Jenkins is younger and a top 15 overall prospect. SO regardless of if you go Lee & Jenkins, or Lee and Rodriguez, for Meyer, Luzardo, Alcantara, who says no, Twins or Marlins?

Am I the only one confused? the title of the article is 3 reasons why Wallner will NOT be Sano or Gallo ye tthe first 2 points compares him EXACTLY to both of them.

From the "zig when other people zag " department. Here are a few trades/moves I would love to see.. With most of my posts of course would never happen, and in fact would probably be HORRIBLE moves in general. haha!!! 1) Yes I am still chasing Miami Stanton vs Yankee Stanton, but I would love to see Giancarlo on this roster. He fits perfectly with our "strike out all you want as long as you hit 35 HR" philosophy. he strikes out 1/3 of the time and has a batting average of .200 over the last 2 years. Is it too much of a stretch to say "just 3 years ago..."? Well, Just three years ago in in the 2012 season, he hit .273 slugged at an .870 OPS clip equating to a 3+ WAR. Yes he has a full no trade, Yes he makes WAY more than his current output warrants, but he is getting "in the best shape of his career" this offseason, that is exciting!!! hehe. the ZIGZAO quotient is off the charts here, as we are looking to slash payroll, not add to it. and we have some decent young players who would otherwise fill the OF/DH role. The Yankees don't care about payroll, or luxury tax concerns, but I am sure they wouldn't mid too much moving his contract all the same. Lets take a short term hit for a long term gain!! The Yankees just moved a ton of their top pitching prospects for Soto, but there is still some quality to be had. We say we will send them Trevor Larnach or Max Kepler in exchange for Stanton, and in exchange for us taking on 100% of his contract for 2023 & 2024, giving Yankees some space to dip below the tax and reset penalty (and have them on the hook for 2025 & 2026). This Allows the Twins some long term payroll flexibility.. and increases his "re-trade value" as now he will only cost the newly acquiring team at most $64M over 4 years or an AAV of $16M. in exchange for this we get back Luis Gil (former Twin prospect with big arm coming back from injury) and young prospect Brando Mayea who has INSANE speed!! Twins won't take on $, Stanton wont waive no trade, but would be fun to get Stanton's RH bat in the lineup as LF/DH. 2) Luis Arraez 2.0: How about giving the ol' Miami Marlins a call. there was a great trade for both clubs last year. Twins got an Ace while Miami got a batting champ. Lets start with our desire for pitching. There were rumors Miami may listen on Alcantara due to impending big money coming his way. Now he is out for 2024 for TJ surgery. while trying to make a move for Alcantara could be good long term wouldn't do anything for 2024, Id still trade for him, and the Twins have a history of paying pitchers to rehab TJ. There have been rumbling so Edward Cabrera being available, and being another near break out pitching star. There is Jesus Luzardo, who was once a top pitching prospect in Dodgers system, and depending on who you talk to was either coveted, or hated by Twins FO during potential trade with Dodgers, either way he is a mid 3 ERA strike out pitcher just coming into his own at 26. finally a youngster like Minnesota's own Max Meyer could be an intriguing get. super high potential but injury history. ANY of the above would be great gets for the Twins, and each of them in their own rights has the potential to turn into an ace just like Lopez did. SO who is the Arraez we give up in exchange? well one of Miami's biggest needs is a SS. and well, just like moving Arraez hurt, getting a top shelf pitcher again will sting a bit. Shortstop we seem pretty stacked. Middle infield overall. No I do not believe Polanco comes into play here, But if Correa is here for the long haul, and we still have Lewis at 3B, and Juline at 2B, Where exactly will Brooks Lee get his ABs? We already traded our #1 pick from 2021 (Chase Petty) why not go ahead and move our #1 pick from 2022? Brooks Lee could be a star, and we are 1 injury away from him being called up, BUT it takes quality to get quality.. 3) Speaking of that Chase Petty and revisiting past trade partners, How about revisiting the "Twincinatti" connection. after sending off Petty to Cinci for Gray, and then Steer and Encarnacion Strand for Mahle (HORRIBLE trade) why not reach back out see what we can bring back from Cinci? Their biggest need is pitching, and we aren't in great shape to send any out, but they do have potential areas to upgrade in the 1B/DH/LF where their depth chart currently has Steer as starter at 1B & LF, and E-Strand as DH and backup 1B, Could we entice Cinci with Kepler and Kirilloff, and even throwing in low A prospect to get Chase Petty back? Petty doesn't seem to have the same high projection as when drafted, but should still be a solid #2 in the future. This wouldn't improve us right away this year, but would position us nicely in the future getting Petty back. and having Wallner replace Kepler and potential of Miranda back at 1B to replace Kirilloff, we would not be losing a whole lot. PLUS, in order to replace Kirilloff we could also... 4) Go get the OTHER player I have been pining for for years. Dom Smith could be had relatively cheaply via trade. Gold Glove type defense. He may not strike out as much as we would liek our hitters to, as he only strikes out at a 17% clip, but he can still be a great presence on this team. He has the natural leadership of a Boomstick. and good for the Twins he is cheap. No these will not happen, and yes they may range from "dang you are dumb!! to "that is just pointless" or somewhere in between coming in as "redumbdant". BUT dang that would be Frankenstein Funhouse to see all four happen!! REAL trade scenarios come out next week!!

Being weird just comes naturally to some fo us!!! LOL.. gotta have fun at all times!!

Just reviewing some of the new rules being implemented in 2024. and a couple of them seem to be pointless. Yes, I do actually get the Irony of me spending time talking about a rule change i know will have zero impact. I first have to also admit, that I am sure even rules chances focused on the speed of the game will not "ruin the game" as I had previously whined about prior to the pitch clock. OF course I think there are more "natural" ways to speed up the game, but really the pitch clock was a huge success and had minimal, if any impact on the enjoyment of the game in a negative way. But lets review new changes. and give them a 1-10 score on impacting the desired outcome 1) pitch clock going from 20 seconds to 18 seconds with a runner on base. OK i get it there was no impact in adding the clock to begin with, so lets whittle it down a touch. Basically trying to tweak it until you hit the inflection point. BUT dropping from 20 to 18 seconds when the average when MLB data shows that on average pitchers delivered the ball with 7.3 seconds left when runners were on base just doesn't seem like there will be much of an impact on the pace of games. If they were delivering with less than 2 seconds left, then yes that would impact the pace. IMPACT ON PACE OF PLAY = 0 ok maybe a 1 2) Dead Ball clock usage. last year in dead ball situation, the pitch clock did not start until the pitcher took the mound, this year it will start when the pitcher is given a new ball and play is ready to be resumed. I THINK this could have a impact on pace of the game. But I am not sure really how/when "play is ready to be resumed" is determined. SO I cannot answer that. BUT I could imagine that many pitchers last year took that dead ball time as a bit of a breather and took a few seconds to wait to get on the mound before the pitch clock was reset. So even a 2-3 second savings for each dead ball situation could have a BIG impact on the pace of a game. IMPACT ON PACE OF PLAY = 9 3) clock resetting to 2 minutes instead of 2:15 on pitching changes, at least on changes where the relief pitcher is slow to enter teh game. with 6-8 pitching changes per game, at 15 seconds per change that is not a HUGE savings, and it is during dead time so will not speed p the actual game play. IMPACT ON PACE OF PLAY = 2 4) If a pitcher warms up before an inning they must now face at least 1 batter. OK I can understand the point behind it, but really why is there a need to create this rule? MLB themselves said this happened 24 times last year. with about 2600 total games played and it happened 24 times, that less than 1% of the games, you need to make a rule about it? I am not doing a deep dive, but how many of these were then a result of a team having a quick scoring outburst the inning before, and thus nti allowing the relief pitcher time to get up and warmed up in the bullpen prior to the start of the next inning? Personally I am in the camp of you say "the manager needs to manage around that situation", there will be numerous "player safety" people who will say it help protect the pitchers, and you cant put pitchers in who are not sufficiently warmed up. Either way with less than 1% of games experiencing this... IMAPCT ON PACE OF PLAY = 0 5) Mound visits dropping from 5 to 4. again like some of the others, will have minimal if any impact as teams averaged 2.3 visits per game, so again what is the point? IMAPCT ON PACE OF PLAY = 0 6) Widening basepath to 1B. So now instead of making the runner run in foul territory to help prevent collisions at 1B, runners are now allowed to run inside the baseline???? This one subtly intrigues me. while the "safety of the players" people will hate this, as all it will do is increase the chances of the 1B/runner collisions, I think this could also impact how the game is played. Did they change this to increase bunting??? if runners can now "legally" run inside the expanded baseline, is this to incentive bunting and running inside to block the path of a throw? Could this be a rule that while allowing the runner to run inside actually also allow umpires MORE clarity on calling people OUT for interference in blatant situations? I.E. if they expand the inside of the baseline an allow runners to run there but at the same more clearly defining it so where if a player even TOUCHES the grass while running to 1st then they are out, well then THAT would make the calls significantly easier for the umps. While this is not a pace of play rule, I think this COULD have significant impact on how the game is played, depending on how it is implemented, and THIS rule I am curious to see. If I am the coach of a team with speedsters I am bunting much more often and instructing them to run inside the baseline as the flight of the ball from the release of a RH throwing catcher throwing down the line is naturally to tail inside. This could set up throws down the 1B line turning outs or close bunt singles into doubles or triples. Will be interesting to see the intended and unintended consequences of these rules in 2024; Or a great big nothinburger.

and that, my friend is the point!! :) have fun, be creative, be weird actually ENJOY life!! :)

SO all two of you who occasionally stumble upon my ramblings are aware that I have posted multiple blogs regarding the actual affordability of Ohtani for the Twins. and the fallacy of "oh but we are just a small market team, we cant afford to go big swimming in the deep end of the FA pool" mindset. Specifically when it came to Ohtani. In my last post I spoke about how even at 10 years $650M deal... and yes I thought I was going overboard at $65M AAV to prove a point. turns out I UNDER valued the deal. Not to rehash the premise, but it is based on the Twins being one of the team who could actually afford him the easiest due to the significant money he woudl bring in. as well as the Twins being able to command strong new TV contract with Ohtani on board. The new TV contracts (and lack thereof that is giving Twins cover to lower payroll) would most likely be the same or even higher for the Twins with Ohtani on board. As mentioned above I underestimated the money it would take to land Ohtani, but also I apparently underestimated the revenues he would drive as well. Reports out of LA indicate that ticket prices for next year will be on average 71% higher than this past year. That means that on average, with the same attendance they will generate 71% more revenues from ticket sales. Before getting into how this number would translate to the Twins lets do some quick math for the Dodgers. last year their home attendance was 3,837,079 and their average ticket price was $171.67. that equates to rounded up to $659M. a 71% increase of $659M =$467M. So $70M salary (that is mostly deferred) drives a $467M increase in ticket revenue? hmmm, yeah I'd say that is a good deal. Now the Twins are not the Dodgers, but lets assume the same 71% increase in ticket prices. the Twins sold 1,974,124 tickets last year. at an average ticket price of just $40.61. a pittance compared to the Dodgers. that is $80M in ticket sales. a 71% increase would be an ADDITIONAL $57M in revenues. BUT WAIT!!!! The Twins did not sell out every game!! they averaged 24,371 tickets per game in a stadium that holds 39,504. Even if Ohtani drove ONLY an additional 10,000 per game, and at even a 50% ticket price hike, that would translate into $168M in revenue JUST from ticket sales increase. SO a $70M... even a $75M overpay for Ohtani would net a conservative +$86M in revenue from ticket sales. Again that is JUST ticket sales, and he already not only pays for himself, but MAKES the team money just by him being a Twin. Of course the ticket revenues get divvied up. but you get the picture. Add in teh increased TV contract they would be able to sign, add in teh increased away ticket sales revenue share, add in the concession from jersey sales, add in all that and more, and yes the Twins coudl EASILY have afforded Ohtani at ANY salary, Again this is not to say Ohtani would have signed here, but is showing how in this case, with this player, "we cant afford him" is just not valid. The Twins have actuaries that could more clearly demonstrate the value of Ohtani than just some schmuck on a computer. But he was eminently affordable. Oh and what else was $70M? oh yeah, the already cleared contracts of Sonny Gray, Joey Gallo, Michael Taylor, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagan, Kenta Maeda, plus the very replaceable (players) contracts of Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Vazquez) All of these contracts will be off the books before the start of the season (MAYBE they keep Kepler) anyways, so why not spend that $75M on Ohtani and STILL only be at last years payroll, and generate enough additional revenue (detailed above) to actually sign MORE quality Free Agents!! and STILL be more profitable. Now lets go start getting excited about getting BOTH Larnach AND Wallner in the lineup at the same time!!! now THAT will move the turnstile!!

so Ohtani looks to be signing with Toronto very shortly. in part because he values his privacy. WHat better way to live a private lifestyle than with the Twins?!?!? hehe Twins should do a last minute 10yr $625M offer. 1) We offer the privacy he may desire. 2) With the MSP airport we would have a major INTL airport with all of the direct flights back home he could want. But wait... He also wants to win!! 1) well if he is onboard this team, we would be AL Central contenders/Champs almost annually. 2) when looking at contending you not only have to look at current roster, but also future roster. and while we may not have a Vlad Guerrero Jr, or a Bo Bichette, we do have Carlos Correa (yeah yeah yeah I know a number of you will trash him, but he has proven a top SS, and a playoff stud). we have a strong current and future rotation he could slide into next year and we have a slew of young players who are just opening their own winning window in Royce Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers.... We have Byron Buxton, who is a true wildcard, COULD be a nothing burger, but also could be an MVP candidate... at this point even I have to admit better chances of the nothing burger. BUT we have a number of quality young players 1-2 years away as well to hopefully extend window ( OF COURSE this will be different than the Buxton/Sano window!!! LOL) 3) Basically we have a good to strong rotation, that will only improve when Shohei joins. we have a good nucleus of position players from which to build and a strong group of prospects who will be arriving on an almost annual basis over the next few years. But we cant afford him!!! the TV contract!! I will not go not the whole details like I had previously about how we are actually one of the few teams who actually CAN afford him, btu will just go cliff notes version. 1) the massive spike of season tickets, and single game tickets will offset at least half of his contract. 2) Having Shohei on this team would actually allow us to command significantly higher new TV deal than without him, This difference could easily result in offsetting 25-50% of his annual salary. 3) this does not even take into consideration the spike in revenue from concessions, from away game attendance which will spike, and opening up a whole country worht of advertising rights, These alone could completely offest the cost of Ohtani. 4) We have already shaved off $35M+ with no longer having Sonny Gray, Maeda, Gallo, Mahle. Should we need, even if having to add prospects to move Vazquez or get nothing in return, that is another $10M. and if we do end up moving Kepler and/or Polanco, then that is another potential $20M shed These moves alone cover the cost of Ohtani as well. Taylor's $4.6M being gone brings it to nearly $70M shed. 5) we have cheap replacements for almost EVERY positional loss. Kepler = Wallner, Polanco = Julien, Taylor = Buxton (if he can actually play ANY CF) plus Austin Martin, also have Castro & Gordon. Sonny Gray = Louis Varland... OK OK maybe we say Maeda - Louis Varland and while still possible downgrade, he would be serviceable #5. Sonny Gray would actually be more like Ohtani being that replacement (albeit NEXT year) Positional Fit with Buxton as possible DH? 1) if... IF Buxton can play CF that solves that issue, .. and really anyoen who says "well yeah but where would we put him!?" well, Ill just say no comment. 2) if Buxton CANT go in the OF, then since Ohtani would not be pitching this year, he could easily handle 1B which would be a massive upgrade over Kirilloff/Miranda. or even OF.. he is such an "athlete" it shouldn't be a big deal taking on 1B or a corner OF spot... heck could HE be the CF protection for Buxton??? SO again, even if he was NOT on the verge of signing with Toronto, I of course do not believe this would ACTUALLY happen. I just want everyone to know it is not because "we cant afford him" or any "woe is me" Twins Front Office mumbo jumbo. it is becasue it is a CHOICE! we have CHOSEN not to go after him. Yes he COULD fit financially very easily!! Yes he DOES fit our positional/roster needs Yes he/we WOULD win consistently with him on this roster Yes it WOULD have been fun as heck to have him on this team and see/feel all the buzz and excitement surrounding this club. and finally... Yes I know there is no point to this post because it was and will never happen, but still fun to think "what if". hehe

First off, NO... I do not expect the Twins to be anywhere NEAR in the running for Ohtani. He most like lt has zero interest in a midwest location, and we will not spend that much. The question however is SHOULD we be in the running? and the answer is an unequivocal YES. Everyone is talking about how we will be lowering payroll, primarily because of the lack of TV contract. I would suggest that actually signing Ohtani would give the Twins leverage to sign a bigger contract. The guy is a mega draw! Lets play with some hypothetical numbers. For easy math let's throw out a $50M AAV for Ohtani. the numbers that have floated around are that the Twins had about $50M coming in from local TV rights, and that now people are guestimating that would drop to somewhere around $25M. I would venture to guess that EVERY sports broadcasting company would be battling it out to be the ones to be able to carry Ohtani's games, even locally. With the guaranteed increased viewership with Ohtani, you would think broadcast companies would come back in even at the same contract details as the previous one. Now I do not claim to know details of the previous contracts, and how lucrative they have been for the TV companies, or if they were a big reason they sought bankruptcy protection, btu I would assume that a team with Ohtani alone could draw enough. viewership... ad revenue, that at the same contract that brought the Twins $50M would be doable. Working on that assumption would be that without Ohtani we receive $25M, with Ohtani we receive $50M. That $25M offsets the first $25M of Ohtani's salary. That means the Twins would need to clear another $25M from the payroll in order to remain at last years levels. And again, the only, or at least main reason the Twins are cutting payroll is the lack of TV contract money. Looking at the Twins roster it does not take a genius how to clear that money. Kepler and Polanco together free up around $20M. There is another $22M being freed up with Sonny Gray, Kyle Farmer and Kenta Maeda not being back with us. These moves alone more than free up the remaining balance to cover Ohtani. Factor in other potential cost saving measures like moving Vasquez and Pagan =$13.5M, Gallo's $11M and Mahle's $7.5M coming off the books.. The point of all of this rambling is to say that the current lack of TV contract is EXACTLY WHY the Twins should be a front runner for Ohtani. You sign him, you overpay for himif needed. and then you leverage him to sign a much bigger TV deal than you would otherwise sign without him. and that is not even factoring in ticket sales, concessions, etc. Ohtani's deal at ANY price will more than pay for itself, but more so if he signs with a team without a current TV deal. Teams with TV deals in place will not be able to leverage his star status for more TV money. Again, key word in the title here is SHOULD, I know he and they WONT. :(

Again, my reaction is not to the EXTENT of the injury, it is to the HADNLING of the injury. When you see your KEY player with injury history pull up lame (note he was NOT just slowing down because he was going to be out). You do not just sit back and wait for him to come to you. You go to him to make sure he is OK. that didn't happen, and THAT is where the dereliction of duty comes in to play. If they went to Royce and he said he was fine that is one thing, but they didn't address the clear issue themselves.

I hope the injury to Royce Lewis is not as bad as I fear. That was NOT "Hamstring tightness". ANYOEN/EVERYONE watching this game saw it, and I am guessing we all let out a simultaneous "OH F---"!!!!!! How could they not see it? Was anyone else as enraged as I was when listening to Tingler explain the injury? I do not have it recorded so I will be paraphrasing, but when asked about if the injury running down to first on the previous at bat had anything to do with it, he says he did not see any issues with Royce running down to first, and that he just slowed up. NO Jayce he did not "just slow up" he CLEARLY did something. Jayce then said that he didn't see anything and that Royce did not come to him to share any potential injury.. How can a (fill in manager) and a head trainer watch a guy as vital to the steam as Royce Lewis is pull up OBVIOUSLY lame running to first. and you not GO TO HIM?!?!?!?!!!!!! ROyce needed to be pulled immediately!!! You just saw a guy run the bases and pull up lame, a player who is the key to your team, a player that has a history of SIGNIFICANT knee injuries, he CLEARLY pulls up lame and limping and you do nothing??? You were in a 7-0 ballgame leading a division by 7 games with 10 games to go. Lewis should have been pulled IMMEDIATELY!!! Now the end result may not be much different, maybe the damage was already done there, but he should never have been left in the game after that. Royce's reaction going into the dugout was not a reaction of someone who has a tight hamstring, that was a reaction of a young player who has come back from 2 SIGNIFICANT injuries, missing SIGNIFICANT time, knowing he just had another SIGNIFICANT injury and is about to lose even more SIGNIFICANT time to rehab yet another injury. That was the reaction of a player who knows he is not playing another competitive game again this year. I PRAY I am wrong, but the results here, but either way, if it is a 1 day injury or a 1 year injury, what is most frustrating is the incompetent handling of this by both the fill in manager and the head trainer, and both should be immediately terminated for incompetence.

With these games REALLY not mattering much, why do we continue to pinch hit for Wallner mid way through games because a lefty comes out of the pen? Wouldnt these games that dont mean all that much in the big picture be the perfect opportunity to let Wallner get some ABs against left handed pitching?

OK this is less of a blog and more of a thread, BUT... Tonight's Saints game should be a super fun game to go to!!! Buxton playing 7 innings of CF. Plus with the Twins having a Nooner today, there is a great chance you can catch a good number of Twins players attending the game to watch and support Buxton!! Great photo/autograph opportunities tonight in St Paul