A Correa-like deal makes much less sense for a pitcher because the odds of paying $100M for three years of nothing are much higher.  If we are going to take that much risk (even 3 years), we need to get the reward if it pans out.  

Perhaps i stand alone as you might say, but I would not trade Kepler for Montgomery. 

The other problem with the deal is we won't have funds to get anyone else. I still think a c.f is important. I think a better idea might be to take a page out of the Dodgers book. Offer a deal to him where we defer 5 or 6 million a year. Do that for 3 or 4 years of the contract. Pay that money at the end of his stay. I know that certain guys will not be there 3 or 4 years from now . Freeing up money to pay the balance.

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps i stand alone as you might say, but I would not trade Kepler for Montgomery. 

Wow. While I think the whole idea here is fantasy based, I’m surprised one wouldn’t want Montgomery if the loss was Kepler!

I’m a Kepler fan but Montgomery added to our rotation takes us higher than last year’s starters & the Pen is super deep. Twins would be viewed as Top contender in AL.

Kepler is gone at some point in the next 9 months IMO. Can’t see Team paying him a bigger contract at age 32.

Wallner to RF - Lewis to LF - Lee/Castro/Farmer at 3B with Lewis there 25-30 games early while Lee gets ready. I like this playoff line-up.

With the $47-$48 million dollar windfall the new TV deal gives the Twins this is certainly a possibility.  Or at least it should be.  

I would argue that Snell is just as much in play as Montgomery because with the bullpen the FO has assembled the Twins could certainly afford to let Snell go out an dominate for 5 innings.  In fact, Snell is a much more similar comp to Sonny Gray than Montgomery would be.  Snell walks too many, but the strikeout stuff is undeniable.  I would be happy with either Snell or Montgomery as the #2 behind Lopez.  Maybe I make DeSclafani the Snell piggyback.

The money is already there but if they needed to justify the expense for either pitcher they should focus on trading Farmer or Vasquez.  Kepler should be kept for this season.  Farmer will probably be replaced by Brooks Lee sooner rather than later.  Lee is not playing a full season at St. Paul this year.  He may not even play a month there.

Vasquez is a good defensive catcher who should see his offense improve from his miserable season a year ago.  But I'm not expecting much out of him offensively either way.  He could be dealt to the Marlins for a minor league piece.  Word is Miami would LOVE to have him.  Jeffers becomes the #1 catcher and Camargo moves up.  

The TV deal is settled.  The Twins are getting 85% of the $55 million they got last year.  They have Farmer and Vasquez, two contracts that CAN be moved because there are young players pushing for their chance and they have talents that other teams would desire.  I'd risk weakening the bench by an inch to add a MILE with a solid #2 SP at the top of our rotation.   

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Wow. While I think the whole idea here is fantasy based, I’m surprised one wouldn’t want Montgomery if the loss was Kepler!

I’m a Kepler fan but Montgomery added to our rotation takes us higher than last year’s starters & the Pen is super deep. Twins would be viewed as Top contender in AL.

Kepler is gone at some point in the next 9 months IMO. Can’t see Team paying him a bigger contract at age 32.

Wallner to RF - Lewis to LF - Lee/Castro/Farmer at 3B with Lewis there 25-30 games early while Lee gets ready. I like this playoff line-up.

Kepler is certainly gone after this season under any conditions. I would trade Kepler for George Kirby or Logan Gilbert. Seattle says no. I'm sure you have your reasons why you believe Montgomery would be a good addition for the Twins. We will not agree. Either way, we have zero say in the matter. From my seat Kepler makes the Twins a better team than Montgomery would. You would have a ton of support from others for your position though. 

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

With the $47-$48 million dollar windfall the new TV deal gives the Twins this is certainly a possibility.  Or at least it should be.  

I would argue that Snell is just as much in play as Montgomery because with the bullpen the FO has assembled the Twins could certainly afford to let Snell go out an dominate for 5 innings.  In fact, Snell is a much more similar comp to Sonny Gray than Montgomery would be.  Snell walks too many, but the strikeout stuff is undeniable.  I would be happy with either Snell or Montgomery as the #2 behind Lopez.  Maybe I make DeSclafani the Snell piggyback.

The money is already there but if they needed to justify the expense for either pitcher they should focus on trading Farmer or Vasquez.  Kepler should be kept for this season.  Farmer will probably be replaced by Brooks Lee sooner rather than later.  Lee is not playing a full season at St. Paul this year.  He may not even play a month there.

Vasquez is a good defensive catcher who should see his offense improve from his miserable season a year ago.  But I'm not expecting much out of him offensively either way.  He could be dealt to the Marlins for a minor league piece.  Word is Miami would LOVE to have him.  Jeffers becomes the #1 catcher and Camargo moves up.  

The TV deal is settled.  The Twins are getting 85% of the $55 million they got last year.  They have Farmer and Vasquez, two contracts that CAN be moved because there are young players pushing for their chance and they have talents that other teams would desire.  I'd risk weakening the bench by an inch to add a MILE with a solid #2 SP at the top of our rotation.   

I too think the $$ are available this year……but with Lopez getting something like an additional $13M in ‘25???…… I’m sure this is in the minds and budget considerations of the FO!

Again, IMO…….. based on what I’ve seen in print, Snell turned down $180 for 6 years with Yankees (very near that) and is trying to get 9 years for $270M……….so he’s crazy & OUT!

Even 4 years for $30M each is way too risky with his career history. I love the ERA & therefore could care less about the walks and 5 innings of Great is worthwhile & acceptable but his successful years (health plus stats) are not very common.

Montgomery is durable and has solid post season resume. He only pitched 75 innings from 2018 - 2020. He threw 155 - 157 - 178 - 188 innings in ‘17-‘21-‘22-‘23 respectively ……. career 3.68 ERA. He should be the target, or shift to Duvall, or do nothing in near term(maybe at deadline).

In ‘25 they have the usual arbitration guys and the under control minimum $ guys. So maybe $30M for 18 guys, all coming back from this year………totals $35M to be conservative.

Farmer gone at 6.25M - Kepler gone at $10M - Santana gone at $5.75M - DeSclafani gone at $12M………..totals $34M saved.

2025 Replacements for guys above:

Minor league OF (or Lewis to LF) replaces Kepler - Miranda or Servino to Platoon with Kirillofff replaces Satana - Varland replaces DeSclafani - Lee replaces Farmer along with Martin 

Back for another year Vazquez at $10M - Buxton at $15M - CC at $36M - Lopez at $21.5M.

$117.5M total committed payroll for ‘25.

Seems that Montgomery around $25-$26M/ year would work over a handful of years.

Was scouring the news to look for something that the Twins were going to sign him. Title pretty misleading... 

Would love to have him but 3 years at 25 per would be my limit. He is at best a #3. 

Hey, I'm old and jaded, but I don't think Montgomery is worth that sort of money. For a pitcher over the age of 30, who has not really been among the elite arms, that's a huge overpay. And I wouldn't go after Snell either, for the reasons given in the article, plus he's just a very erratic pitcher. Great one year and mediocre the next. And none of these guys are young, so a multi-year contract seems too risky. Even if it means trading a quality prospect, I'd prefer that route, at least this year, if we want a better starting pitcher to add to the rotation. 

And I think the reasons many have stated are why Snell and Montgomery are still unsigned.  None of the 5 Boras clients are perfect fits for the Twins.  Maybe if Bellinger was a switch-hitter?  JD Martinez is a DH only.  Scratch JD off the list.  Bellinger helps in CF, 1B and even RF.  But we already have LOTS of LH hitting OF's and Emm-Rod and Walker Jenkins are coming soon.  Scratch Bellinger.  Matt Chapman is a 3B.  Scratch Chapman.

And finally the SP's.  Snell has won 2 Cy Young Awards and yet, he's been so inconsistent throughout his career that he's got the lowest value I can ever remember for a 2-time winner.  He doesn't really evoke confidence of 5 years of excellence.  And his contract demands are clearly not going over very well with every major league front office.  Montgomery is much more consistent but he's almost like Brad Radke.  He's a #3 SP and we need a #1 or at least a #2.  I'm not comfortable paying #1 SP money to a guy who's clearly a solid #3.  

Honestly, would the Twins get nearly the same kind of production from a Clevinger or Bauer at a fraction of the cost?  I'm leaning very heavily in the "I think so" direction.  Scratch Snell and Montgomery.

The money is there.  But it doesn't HAVE to be spent.  I'd much rather sign Adam Duval to have a RH bat with power to mix into my lineup (and send Larnach to St. Paul) and look for the right kind of pitcher at the trade deadline.  The more I think about this, the more sense it makes to see how our season begins and progresses as well as see how Brooks Lee, Camargo and Emmanuel Rodriguez are doing and come the deadline or a little before that, determine what we're going to do with Kepler, Farmer and Vasquez and what SP we want to go after.  

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Montgomery is much more consistent but he's almost like Brad Radke.  He's a #3 SP and we need a #1 or at least a #2.  I'm not comfortable paying #1 SP money to a guy who's clearly a solid #3.  

That comment is really insulting to Brad Radke.

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That comment is really insulting to Brad Radke.

I think it’s insulting to both. Montgomery has a 3.68 career ERA…….in a time when 3.50 ERA or better is excellence. Lopez was at 3.68 last year and #23 ERA in the game. There’s 30 teams. 3.68 for his career, Montgomery. Getting guys out is baseball - not 98MPH - ask Sonny Gray.

Montgomery was excellent through the ‘23 post season.

Radke was a horse and so is Montgomery.

Proud to have either start game 1 or 2 of a playoff series!

Staff of Montgomery blended with Ober, Ryan, & Lopez……….. then with Varland & Paddack added to the Playoff Bullpen, would be very, very good!!

If Montgomery is seeking a Nola deal he will be waiting a long time.  At his age and lack of Cy Young profile.  Nola is younger and has had Cy Young votes in past.  Personally, I think the Nola contract is big overpay.  I would not want to see, and doubt team would, give a 7 year deal to any pitcher.  I could see a short term "pillow" contract.  Montgomery is not the type of guy that should seek that.  He has been consistent his career.  When healthy he has been the same guy his whole career, a good but not elite pitcher.  He is a good number 2 or 3, but not an "ace".  That is why he should not bee seeking a short term deal with opt outs thinking he will get a better contract next year, unless he becomes more than what he has been. 

If you wanted to go "pillow" contract, Snell is the place to go.  I find funny the writer saying that Twins do not pitch starters deep into games, when we had the 4th most innings thrown by starters last year. Yes, we were 27th the year before, but in part it was who we had that made that happen.  Snell has much more upside than Montgomery, he has won Cy Young's and when healthy has shown an ability to be an "ace".  If you want to spend big on a 1 to 2 year deal he would be the one go after. 

However, both Snell and Montgomery are seeking longer than a couple of years, but both will be huge risks at long term deals.  Snell because of health, and Montgomery because of talent drop off.  The concern with Montgomery is he is 31 now, and if he starts to lose some ability he will be a 4th or 5th type guy.  Most pitchers start to drop off around age 31, and only HOF type guys normally will overcome that.  Being he was never even all star guy how can we expect he will maintain over the years? 

Snell his risk is similar that he will drop off, but that could still put him at a good 2 or 3 at peak, but his bigger risk is injury.  When he is healthy he has been one of best pitchers in game at times, but he also has been barely even a 5th at times too. He has only pitched 180 innings both his Cy Young years.  Other than that he tops out at about 129 innings.  I would not bet big on him long term.  I would point out, the writer argues Montgomery pitches deeper into games, but he only topped 180 innings last year at 188.2 in 32 starts, Snell did 180 in 32 starts, so Montgomery last year, averaged like 1 more out per outing than Snell did, not like he was some inning eater compared. Montgomery averaged less per start each of last 2 years.

Point is, if you are looking for a prove it contract Snell would be the guy to go after.  One he would have more to cash in on a prove it deal, similar to like Rondon did, that has not worked out well so far for Yankees, but signing a 3 year deal with opt outs would be more enticing to Snell, and he has more total upside.  Montgomery has been more consistent over the years, and he has little to prove on a 1 year type deal looking to cash in next year. Maybe if he thinks he can be what he was with Texas a full season, then he could cash in huge, but that was just 11 games versus his whole career. I doubt he does that a full year at age 31. 

If the Twins are serious about winning this year, just give the ball every fifth day to Louie Varland. Problem solved.

So many holes in the post. Are you just trying to salary dump all the players and get pretty much nothing in return or prospects? The plus side to Montgomery is there is no QO attached to him. 

If he held out this long I can't see him taking a short contract. This is probably his last chance at his age for a huge deal. Lets say he signs a 1 year deal for 35M and has a terrible year, his next contract would be for like 17-22M a year if he can get a multi year deal. His best option is to look for a 4-5 year deal now. He waited this long another few weeks won't matter.

On 2/18/2024 at 6:57 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Wow. While I think the whole idea here is fantasy based, I’m surprised one wouldn’t want Montgomery if the loss was Kepler!

I’m a Kepler fan but Montgomery added to our rotation takes us higher than last year’s starters & the Pen is super deep. Twins would be viewed as Top contender in AL.

Kepler is gone at some point in the next 9 months IMO. Can’t see Team paying him a bigger contract at age 32.

Wallner to RF - Lewis to LF - Lee/Castro/Farmer at 3B with Lewis there 25-30 games early while Lee gets ready. I like this playoff line-up.

No to Lewis in the outfield. Last time that didn’t go well and he is an infielder. Figure out something else.