I think the off season went fine considering our spending restraints. My only worry is our fifth starter ..

Thank you for saying what needs to be said and the reality of the situation. 

Too many fans are looking to spend like the Mets to be great... Spending is not the answer unless we need to spend. Spending wisely and keeping our system full of quality options is how a franchise "stays" on or near the top. 

Come trade deadline if there is a deal to be done that gets us that guy that helps us ... great ... but spending to "look" good is a "fools folly'. 

So what you are alluding to is that Miami will skillfully and cunningly avoid making the playoffs? But you think they are being delusionary and will make it anyway? 

At FanGraphs, the Twins with a modest 85 wins are the only AL Central team projected to post a winning record:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

With 12 postseason slots only a few teams should be "out of it" as the trade deadline approaches.

FanGraphs gives the Twins slightly better than even odds (52.6%) to win the American League Central:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

1 hour ago, saviking said:

I think the off season went fine considering our spending restraints. My only worry is our fifth starter ..

Agreed. My thought is they may start with Varland in that slot & then bring DeSclafani back to Bigs in May/June after a long stint on the IL and much rehabilitation. Varland can option to St. Paul & cruise back to the Big Club in August?

Festa is primed to help for 10 starts sprinkled through the summer months as well.

46 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Thank you for saying what needs to be said and the reality of the situation. 

Too many fans are looking to spend like the Mets to be great... Spending is not the answer unless we need to spend. Spending wisely and keeping our system full of quality options is how a franchise "stays" on or near the top. 

 

Daily reminder that since 1991 only 1 team with a payroll lower than 18th has won a Series.  Spending does not guarantee you a World Series; not spending enough almost guarantees you won't a Series.

"Spending wisely and keeping our system full" has resulted in one ALCS appearance in 3 decades.  

35 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

"Spending wisely and keeping our system full" has resulted in one ALCS appearance in 3 decades.  

How many of those 30 years have the Twins both spent wisely and kept the system full?  One, maybe two?  How many of those 30 years have they done one of the two?  Four, maybe five? 

I understand what you are trying to say, but the Twins are not an example of it.  This year, they may actually be in that position.  Right now is the exact time to be spending wisely, both in money and prospects.  With nothing great available, and more information needed on the prospects, it is the correct time to wait patiently.  The deadline will be bring clarity and different questions to answer.

I could make the case for approaching this offseason in exactly the same manner regardless of the TV situation.

As the season has not yet started and anything is possible, I am looking forward to a much improved lineup with Buxton and Correa fully recovered and a continuation of Julien's OBP and Royce Lewis vying for an MVP. Pablo will be solid, Paddack will impress, and Ryan might grow up a bit and get his jitters out. Maybe if Ober wins 15 and keeps his season ERA below 3.33 people will finally stop underestimating him.  I expect nothing out of Varland or DeScalfini as starters, but with better offense I'm hoping it won't matter. 

Be patient is the correct move. This team is better than they were last year if the old guard gets healthy and Royce/Julien maintain their dominance. There is a lot of room for continued improvement with they young players they already have. 

Wow! Talk about drinking the Kool-Aid!! You have checked off that requirement!  All waiting does is move you down the list of quality players. You end up with other teams rejects. You are totally forgetting the quality innings from Gray. And we lost some defense with Polanco leaving and we have Julien left with the limited range and remember the last 6 weeks the league figured out Julien can't hit a cutter in on his hands and his strikeouts sky-rocketed! Almost Sano-Like!  So that pitching is a definite fix-it NOW issue. Especially now that the TV contract is done and cant be used as an excuse any longer.

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agreed. My thought is they may start with Varland in that slot & then bring DeSclafani back to Bigs in May/June after a long stint on the IL and much rehabilitation. Varland can option to St. Paul & cruise back to the Big Club in August?

Festa is primed to help for 10 starts sprinkled through the summer months as well.

MLB just suspended the former Mets GM for faking IL stints. There is no information out there that would at all suggest DeSclafani should be placed on the IL til May/June. He's not currently hurt and they can't pretend he is. He had a flexor strain that is a 4-8 week recovery time last August. Unless he legitimately gets hurt during spring training they can't just put him on the IL for 2 months.

37 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Wow! Talk about drinking the Kool-Aid!! You have checked off that requirement!  All waiting does is move you down the list of quality players. You end up with other teams rejects. You are totally forgetting the quality innings from Gray. And we lost some defense with Polanco leaving and we have Julien left with the limited range and remember the last 6 weeks the league figured out Julien can't hit a cutter in on his hands and his strikeouts sky-rocketed! Almost Sano-Like!  So that pitching is a definite fix-it NOW issue. Especially now that the TV contract is done and cant be used as an excuse any longer.

Julien may only be playing some second base until Brooks Lee is ready. So that may solve the defensive part. With the health of AK just like Buxton Julien can share first and DH with Santana.

I do like Julien but if the Twins could pull off another Arraez type trade and bring back another starter like Pablo I wouldn't complain or miss Julien that much.

There are 12 playoff spots now. That's nearly half the league. At the end of July last year there were 22 teams with at least 50 wins. Those 22 teams (11 in each league) were all within 6 games of a playoff birth. That leaves 8 teams as clear sellers. The idea that you can just wait until the deadline to get what you need is ignoring the new realities of baseball.

It's far easier for teams to create bidding wars at the deadline now than it used to be because so many more teams feel they're in the race. And when there's only 8-10 clear sellers, who likely don't have a ton of big time assets to sell, it becomes much harder to find the "missing piece" for any kind of reasonable cost. It doesn't get cheaper to get guys at the deadline, but you get them for less of the season. 

Whether anyone outside Miami feels like they're a legit threat for the playoffs or not doesn't really matter that much. Their front office may not feel so secure in their jobs and may not be willing to trade current assets for future assets. And I think you'd be hard pressed to find a lot of examples of teams trading away big time pieces in late May/early June. When was the last time that happened? The Marlins would much rather wait until the deadline to see what the next 2 months bring and build up a more heated market when the deadline puts pressure on the buyers to make moves.

What if while the Twins are waiting it out someone loses multiple starters from their rotation and get more aggressive in their trade attempts? Like Texas did last year when they went out and got 2 of the best pitchers available at the deadline. What if Lee struggles for the first half of the AAA season and now Miami doesn't see him as a future SS option for them? Or Emma and our new friend Gonzalez struggle and both drop off top-100 lists? Now you don't even have the needed prospect capital to make a trade.

Not saying they should be out there doing whatever they have to to get another arm, but there's very real risk in waiting. You're not just going to the store and grabbing what you want. The arms might not be there for you to even go after if you wait.

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

MLB just suspended the former Mets GM for faking IL stints. There is no information out there that would at all suggest DeSclafani should be placed on the IL til May/June. He's not currently hurt and they can't pretend he is. He had a flexor strain that is a 4-8 week recovery time last August. Unless he legitimately gets hurt during spring training they can't just put him on the IL for 2 months.

I know the rules…….thanks. He has been supposedly not sound here in TD for the past week. I thought it didn’t make sense since he probably had to take an incoming physical.

Back strain - sore arm - elbow tweak…….all very subjective maladies. Just can’t have the GM ordering the issue is real across. multiple employees for multiple players.

You think Joey Gallo was hurt late last year when they wanted to keep him on roster but not on 26 man. Curious.

Reference is Judge Shmales in CaddyShack.😉

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I know the rules…….thanks. He has been supposedly not sound here in TD for the past week. I thought it didn’t make sense since he probably had to take an incoming physical.

Back strain - sore arm - elbow tweak…….all very subjective maladies. Just can’t have the GM ordering the issue is real across. multiple employees for multiple players.

You think Joey Gallo was hurt late last year when they wanted to keep him on roster but not on 26 man. Curious.

Reference is Judge Shmales in CaddyShack.😉

I just don't see a guy going into free agency sitting out the first 2 months of the season for "subjective maladies." Do you honestly see DeSclafani not pitching in spring training and rehabbing for 2 months? Because if he's not actually hurt the team is going to somehow have to convince him that he is. If he's actually struggled with his elbow since last August the Twins never should've taken him on even for minimal financial risk.

I think Joey Gallo was very much actually hurt when he first went on the IL last year, yes.

Quote

 

I’m still not convinced that Buxton can be an everyday CF with the usual health concerns. Now with the TV deal settled, any chance of brining Taylor back, seeing he’s still unsigned?

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

MLB just suspended the former Mets GM for faking IL stints. There is no information out there that would at all suggest DeSclafani should be placed on the IL til May/June. He's not currently hurt and they can't pretend he is. He had a flexor strain that is a 4-8 week recovery time last August. Unless he legitimately gets hurt during spring training they can't just put him on the IL for 2 months.

They can if he still isn't cleared to pitch (ie his tear is not healed yet)- he still isn't until we hear otherwise.   Until then his ETA is well up in the air.  Yes he had a strain that should have been 4-8 weeks.   It didn't heal,  then was given prp shot -  should have been 12-16 week recovery time.   Again a no go late Sept, early October.  Unless that information is wrong,  there is a lot of question in regards to how healthy he is and if he will be able to pitch this year.   You also had 2 teams trade him with cash because of this "questionable" arm.  I don't think the Twins would have any issue having the documentation for a 60 day.  

34 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They can if he still isn't cleared to pitch (ie his tear is not healed yet)- he still isn't until we hear otherwise.   Until then his ETA is well up in the air.  Yes he had a strain that should have been 4-8 weeks.   It didn't heal,  then was given prp shot -  should have been 12-16 week recovery time.   Again a no go late Sept, early October.  Unless that information is wrong,  there is a lot of question in regards to how healthy he is and if he will be able to pitch this year.   You also had 2 teams trade him with cash because of this "questionable" arm.  I don't think the Twins would have any issue having the documentation for a 60 day.  

Who said they traded him because of his questionable arm? The Giants got back a guy they know 100% won't be pitching the full season. If arm health was a concern for them they wouldn't have paid to get rid of him and an MLB outfielder for a guy they know is hurt. If the Twins traded Jorge Polanco for a guy who's medicals they reviewed and knew he was hurt we should all be pissed. That's not what a contending team does.

The prp injection was what happened in August with a 6-8 week timeline. They knew then that his season was over because there was only 8 weeks left. Suggesting they should have no problem getting 60-day IL documentation 5 months later is not based on any information we have available. 

And if the plan is to 60-day him they should do it now and clear a 40-man spot so they can do a waiver claim without DFAing anyone. I'd think the fact that they haven't done it yet suggests they have no plans to 60-day him and its unlikely they'll see what he can do in spring and then 60-day him.

"The Twins believe DeSclafani is healthy." Do-Hyoung Park from his article on the trade. I suppose he could've just made that up, but I'd bet he actually asked someone.

Every connected reporter has him on the opening day roster. You'd think there'd be mentions of him being injured and not have everyone listing him as a lock if there was doubt.

Every official report for everyone of our players that got hurt, had surgery or treatment last season has fully recovered and is gearing up for a healthy spring training and available for opening day.  Any set back or new injury is its own animal and owned by “The 2024 season” . I know its hard to believe but we have a healthy 40 man roster and beyond. WOW. 🤩 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

 

"The Twins believe DeSclafani is healthy." Do-Hyoung Park from his article on the trade. I suppose he could've just made that up, but I'd bet he actually asked someone.

Every connected reporter has him on the opening day roster. You'd think there'd be mentions of him being injured and not have everyone listing him as a lock if there was doubt.

And Buxton will be in CF when the weather warms up. Every connected reporter bought that too.

10 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

Thank you for saying what needs to be said and the reality of the situation. 

Too many fans are looking to spend like the Mets to be great... Spending is not the answer unless we need to spend. Spending wisely and keeping our system full of quality options is how a franchise "stays" on or near the top. 

Come trade deadline if there is a deal to be done that gets us that guy that helps us ... great ... but spending to "look" good is a "fools folly'. 

Damn, I wish I read this earlier.  I just spent a lot of money on a new hair style.  (But if I do say so myself, I do look pretty good.)

13 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

And we lost some defense with Polanco

Not to be critical, but did we really lose any defense with Polanco leaving? I don't think he was ever a gold glove candidate at second base, but I think we'll definitely miss some of his power and timely hits. That said, I think it was to move on and give some of the younger players more playing time. 

10 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

And Buxton will be in CF when the weather warms up. Every connected reporter bought that too.

The Twins said from the beginning Buxton was still hurt. They didn't say he was healthy and then IL him. They said he was hurt but they expected him to get healthy by DHing. I guess we'll see how hurt DeSclafani is today when workouts begin. 

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Who said they traded him because of his questionable arm? The Giants got back a guy they know 100% won't be pitching the full season. If arm health was a concern for them they wouldn't have paid to get rid of him and an MLB outfielder for a guy they know is hurt. If the Twins traded Jorge Polanco for a guy who's medicals they reviewed and knew he was hurt we should all be pissed. That's not what a contending team does.

The prp injection was what happened in August with a 6-8 week timeline. They knew then that his season was over because there was only 8 weeks left. Suggesting they should have no problem getting 60-day IL documentation 5 months later is not based on any information we have available. 

And if the plan is to 60-day him they should do it now and clear a 40-man spot so they can do a waiver claim without DFAing anyone. I'd think the fact that they haven't done it yet suggests they have no plans to 60-day him and its unlikely they'll see what he can do in spring and then 60-day him.

"The Twins believe DeSclafani is healthy." Do-Hyoung Park from his article on the trade. I suppose he could've just made that up, but I'd bet he actually asked someone.

Every connected reporter has him on the opening day roster. You'd think there'd be mentions of him being injured and not have everyone listing him as a lock if there was doubt.

I thought today was the day they could put him on the 60 day.  So yes if he throwing and not on 60 day he appears healthy.  

However, you are majorly oversimplifying the Mariners and Giants situations.  The Giants have had money to burn and no one to take them up on big money deals.  The Mariners were told they couldn't spend anymore and had to cut budget.  So the Mariners floated a injured high end arm with likely 2 years of pitching to dump salary.  They liked Haniger before but he was a negative war,  so in order to take Ray,  the Giants dumped Hanigers contract and Desclafani who in all likelihood Mariners said in order for us to take him on we need the $6 million dollars to try and flip him (most likely already talking to the Twins).  Then as a cash strapped team they were willing to add $2 million to the pot to the Twins to get rid of him.  If the $4 million for Desclafani is a sunk cost to get the 3 other players we did,  so be it.  He was a negative war in the trade calculator and I still view him as a negative asset (that could have upside if healthy).  I don't ever feel the front office was completely up front with us on Buxton last year.  I think they knew that Knee was extremely inflamed and he was struggling to do likely simple exercises, rehab ect.  Its why MAT was brought in.   Look if Desclafani is cleared he is cleared.  If he is still not cleared and pitching, tells you all you need to know about what the Twins have been telling us, but also his medical diagnosis.   

The Twins still shopping for a 5th starter is also interesting.  There would be no need if Desclafani is healthy and your 5th starter.  

32 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I thought today was the day they could put him on the 60 day.  So yes if he throwing and not on 60 day he appears healthy.  

However, you are majorly oversimplifying the Mariners and Giants situations.  The Giants have had money to burn and no one to take them up on big money deals.  The Mariners were told they couldn't spend anymore and had to cut budget.  So the Mariners floated a injured high end arm with likely 2 years of pitching to dump salary.  They liked Haniger before but he was a negative war,  so in order to take Ray,  the Giants dumped Hanigers contract and Desclafani who in all likelihood Mariners said in order for us to take him on we need the $6 million dollars to try and flip him (most likely already talking to the Twins).  Then as a cash strapped team they were willing to add $2 million to the pot to the Twins to get rid of him.  If the $4 million for Desclafani is a sunk cost to get the 3 other players we did,  so be it.  He was a negative war in the trade calculator and I still view him as a negative asset (that could have upside if healthy).  I don't ever feel the front office was completely up front with us on Buxton last year.  I think they knew that Knee was extremely inflamed and he was struggling to do likely simple exercises, rehab ect.  Its why MAT was brought in.   Look if Desclafani is cleared he is cleared.  If he is still not cleared and pitching, tells you all you need to know about what the Twins have been telling us, but also his medical diagnosis.   

The Twins still shopping for a 5th starter is also interesting.  There would be no need if Desclafani is healthy and your 5th starter.  

If the Twins chose to knowingly eat 4 mil on a guy they didn't think could play this year to trade one of their 4 or 5 best hitters coming off an ALDS trip to gain a reliever with 1 successful MLB season at the age of 32 and 2 prospects in A ball  (and a short side of a platoon 1B if you want to add Santana) fans should be pissed. If they did that trade expecting it to be likely that they'd have to start DeSclafani on the 60-day IL that trade was horrible.

Your point about the Giants having money and Seattle not and that being the motivation here doesn't really seem to track for 2024 at all. Robbie Ray is getting paid 23 mil this season. Mitch Haniger is getting paid 17. DeSclafani is getting 12, but the Giants are paying 6. That trade was a financial wash. It didn't save the Mariners anything and wasn't about the Giants being able to eat some salary. If it's about 2025 and beyond salary I'd think the Mariners would've wanted to let Ray come back and pitch half a year to show his worth so they could get more in return for him after this season. The Mariners then took on salary in the Polanco deal. So apparently their motivation was not to cut budget since their 2 DeSclafani deals actually added salary to their payroll for 2024.

The Twins told us over and over and over that Buxton wasn't right and that's why he was DHing. How is that not being upfront about the knee being "extremely inflamed" and him not being able to do things? They told us MAT was Buxton insurance from the start. They told us in spring that Buxton wouldn't be playing the field and would start the year as the fulltime DH. How much more up front could they be? They literally told us Buxton's knee still wasn't right so they brought in MAT to start the year as the CFer while Buxton would be the fulltime DH until he was able to get the knee right and play the field. Seems like they covered pretty much everything you said they didn't cover.

The Twins are likely going to need between at least 9 and 11 starters this year (they used 14 in 2022). They don't have that right now. Their "shopping" reportedly includes Noah freaking Syndergaard who hasn't been good since 2018. That doesn't feel like it has anything to do with DeSclafani's current health, it sounds like they're trying to add more AAA depth because they know they don't have enough starters yet. The Twins entire strategy is to load up with as much depth as they possibly can, but when it comes to the 5th starter it's about DeSclafani's health? Doesn't seem to track. Are their 20+ reliever options about Duran's health? Adding as much depth as they possibly can is the very core of their strategy.

38 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I thought today was the day they could put him on the 60 day.  So yes if he throwing and not on 60 day he appears healthy.  

However, you are majorly oversimplifying the Mariners and Giants situations.  The Giants have had money to burn and no one to take them up on big money deals.  The Mariners were told they couldn't spend anymore and had to cut budget.  So the Mariners floated a injured high end arm with likely 2 years of pitching to dump salary.  They liked Haniger before but he was a negative war,  so in order to take Ray,  the Giants dumped Hanigers contract and Desclafani who in all likelihood Mariners said in order for us to take him on we need the $6 million dollars to try and flip him (most likely already talking to the Twins).  Then as a cash strapped team they were willing to add $2 million to the pot to the Twins to get rid of him.  If the $4 million for Desclafani is a sunk cost to get the 3 other players we did,  so be it.  He was a negative war in the trade calculator and I still view him as a negative asset (that could have upside if healthy).  I don't ever feel the front office was completely up front with us on Buxton last year.  I think they knew that Knee was extremely inflamed and he was struggling to do likely simple exercises, rehab ect.  Its why MAT was brought in.   Look if Desclafani is cleared he is cleared.  If he is still not cleared and pitching, tells you all you need to know about what the Twins have been telling us, but also his medical diagnosis.   

The Twins still shopping for a 5th starter is also interesting.  There would be no need if Desclafani is healthy and your 5th starter.