16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If the Twins chose to knowingly eat 4 mil on a guy they didn't think could play this year to trade one of their 4 or 5 best hitters coming off an ALDS trip to gain a reliever with 1 successful MLB season at the age of 32 and 2 prospects in A ball  (and a short side of a platoon 1B if you want to add Santana) fans should be pissed. If they did that trade expecting it to be likely that they'd have to start DeSclafani on the 60-day IL that trade was horrible.

Your point about the Giants having money and Seattle not and that being the motivation here doesn't really seem to track for 2024 at all. Robbie Ray is getting paid 23 mil this season. Mitch Haniger is getting paid 17. DeSclafani is getting 12, but the Giants are paying 6. That trade was a financial wash. It didn't save the Mariners anything and wasn't about the Giants being able to eat some salary. If it's about 2025 and beyond salary I'd think the Mariners would've wanted to let Ray come back and pitch half a year to show his worth so they could get more in return for him after this season. The Mariners then took on salary in the Polanco deal. So apparently their motivation was not to cut budget since their 2 DeSclafani deals actually added salary to their payroll for 2024.

The Twins told us over and over and over that Buxton wasn't right and that's why he was DHing. How is that not being upfront about the knee being "extremely inflamed" and him not being able to do things? They told us MAT was Buxton insurance from the start. They told us in spring that Buxton wouldn't be playing the field and would start the year as the fulltime DH. How much more up front could they be? They literally told us Buxton's knee still wasn't right so they brought in MAT to start the year as the CFer while Buxton would be the fulltime DH until he was able to get the knee right and play the field. Seems like they covered pretty much everything you said they didn't cover.

The Twins are likely going to need between at least 9 and 11 starters this year (they used 14 in 2022). They don't have that right now. Their "shopping" reportedly includes Noah freaking Syndergaard who hasn't been good since 2018. That doesn't feel like it has anything to do with DeSclafani's current health, it sounds like they're trying to add more AAA depth because they know they don't have enough starters yet. The Twins entire strategy is to load up with as much depth as they possibly can, but when it comes to the 5th starter it's about DeSclafani's health? Doesn't seem to track. Are their 20+ reliever options about Duran's health? Adding as much depth as they possibly can is the very core of their strategy.

It saves $34.5 million in future years, and gave them a useful asset this year that they needed that they were going to get nothing for this year.  So yes they were able to clear salary from a player on the IL to use it on a useful player this year.  What would have Haniger got as a 1 year deal this year,  $10 mil, $12 mil $14 mil?   So at a hard cap and effectively found $12 million dollars in this trade.  Yes it tells you what they are doing.  Go listen to the Mariners Podcast,  they blast ownership for this offseason every episode then praise Dipoto for what he has been able to do.   

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Best news I have heard.  Thanks.  

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

It saves $34.5 million in future years, and gave them a useful asset this year that they needed that they were going to get nothing for this year.  So yes they were able to clear salary from a player on the IL to use it on a useful player this year.  What would have Haniger got as a 1 year deal this year,  $10 mil, $12 mil $14 mil?   So at a hard cap and effectively found $12 million dollars in this trade.  Yes it tells you what they are doing.  Go listen to the Mariners Podcast,  they blast ownership for this offseason every episode then praise Dipoto for what he has been able to do.   

They didn't clear money. They shifted money while spending even more money. They spent an extra 6 million in salary in 2024 by trading for DeSclafani and Haniger and then trading for Polanco. And Haniger has played 100 games twice in his 7 year career. He's played fewer games than Byron Buxton the last 2 years. He's played 57 and 61 games the last 2 years. It's not like he was some huge health upgrade on Robbie Ray.

They turned Robbie Ray, Gabriel Gonzalez, Justin Topa, Darren Bowen, and $6 million into Jorge Polanco and Mitch Haniger for 2024. That's a payroll increase for 2024. Are the podcast folks blasting ownership for cutting future payroll with these deals? Because they added current payroll with these deals no matter how you'd like to spin it. These deals weren't the money saving deals, those were separate deals. The Mariners may be cutting payroll overall, but these deals were not part of that. These deals added money. The Suarez and Kelenic/Gonzales deals were deals that saved them money. Some of which they then spent on Mitch Garver. The DeSclafani deals did not save them money. Their overall payroll reduction is a separate thing from the DeSclafani deals.

On 2/13/2024 at 10:36 AM, saviking said:

I think the off season went fine considering our spending restraints. My only worry is our fifth starter ..

I generally agree. And while this is also about our fifth starter, I'm more concerned about starters 6-10. Would like to push them all back 1-2 further in rank.

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

 

I think Joey Gallo was very much actually hurt when he first went on the IL last year, yes.

When he went on the IL in June, yes. In Sept no. If I'm not mistaken he went on the IL on Sept 6th the day after he was brought in to pinch run. I can say he was not thrilled by that decision. 

1 minute ago, Schmoeman5 said:

When he went on the IL in June, yes. In Sept no. If I'm not mistaken he went on the IL on Sept 6th the day after he was brought in to pinch run. I can say he was not thrilled by that decision. 

He actually went on the IL on the 8th after not being able to play for 2 days after having fouled a ball off his foot and they made it retroactive to the 6th. At least that was their story. 

You can say he wasn't thrilled by that decision? Do you have quotes from him on that?

But none of this matters now. DeSclafani is in camp throwing bullpen sessions and isn't hurt. That idea has been soundly put to bed. There's no 60-day IL trip coming for him unless he truly gets hurt.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

He actually went on the IL on the 8th after not being able to play for 2 days after having fouled a ball off his foot and they made it retroactive to the 6th. At least that was their story. 

You can say he wasn't thrilled by that decision? Do you have quotes from him on that?

But none of this matters now. DeSclafani is in camp throwing bullpen sessions and isn't hurt. That idea has been soundly put to bed. There's no 60-day IL trip coming for him unless he truly gets hurt.

I hope DeSclafani is ready and raring to go. I hope he exceeds even what the Twins hope to get from him. The point is don't believe all the reports. Regarding Gallo, there was no "left foot contusion" as was reported. And yes I do have a direct quote. From him

1 minute ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I hope DeSclafani is ready and raring to go. I hope he exceeds even what the Twins hope to get from him. The point is don't believe all the reports. Regarding Gallo, there was no "left foot contusion" as was reported. And yes I do have a direct quote. From him

There's video of DeSclafani throwing today. You don't need to believe reports. 

Love to see the quote and I will change my stance on him being injured immediately. 

8 hours ago, Shaitan said:

I generally agree. And while this is also about our fifth starter, I'm more concerned about starters 6-10. Would like to push them all back 1-2 further in rank.

I'm also concerned about the depth, but 7 on. I'm not worried about the 6th spot, which is presumably Varland at this point. Last year we had both Ober and Varland for depth to begin the year. In retrospect, it was mostly Varland as Mahle was done pretty soon and Ober was up pretty quick.

The problem with adding another arm, as has been suggested by some, is unless it's a major deal for a top arm to compete with everyone not named Lopez, somebody has to leave the roster. DeScalfini has to move to the pen as he doesn't have options. Or, someone has to be hurt to make room. But either way, someone comes off the 40 man at this point, and it's pretty crowded already. 

Reportedly, DeScalfini is healthy, recovered, been throwing for a while, and was throwing in camp today. The Twins are of the belief/hope that this means the Disco who actually threw quite well for the first 2 months of 2023 for the Giants is the guy they acquired. If so, the Polanco trade ratchets up a notch or two in the "win" column for the Twins. Varland is your #6, like he was foe about a month last year. He too came up early when Maeda needed more time.

Again, reportedly, SWR has been in Ft Myers, for about a month I believe, working on his delivery to gain velocity and more "comfort" in his motion. I believe it's a delivery he moved away from previously. Still young, hopefully we will see real growth this year, because we're going to need hum at some point. I think Festa is the better arm, but he's barely pitched at AAA and needs time. The jury is very much out on Headrick at this point. Pierson Ohl might surprise, but I'd bet he's at least a half season away. It would be a crazy but good story if Dobnak suddenly re-discovered what made him a decent, viable back end SP a few years ago. Don't laugh, crazier things have happened, but I think that's stretching hope an awful lot. Along with all of those possibilities, as per usual for all teams, the Twins have grabbed a couple journeyman types who've never made it. Once in a blue moon, you uncover a shiny stone...not a diamond...who figures something out and can be a decent #5 to help.

What the Twins CAN do, and SHOULD do...now or in a couple weeks as things shake out...is grab an Odorizzi, or Cueto type veteran coming off injury or the such on a milb with standard ML split deal with an out clause...preferably July 1st...to "crowd" the AAA rotation in hopes of being additional depth.

In most of these scenarios, you're really, really hoping you don't need to dig deep until a couple months of the season go by so that the younger arms get time, the reclamation arm gets time, and you might cringe when someone is brought up.

Keuchel was brought on by the Twins late in 2023 not because they had a potential steal. He was brought on to just throw innings, hopefully keep the Twins in the game, and help rest a couple guys to get ready for the post season as a temporary #5. 

That's not what the Twins need right now. What they need is someone who has a reasonable chance to legitimately get guys out for 5 IP if they can "get right", after Varland is already up and someone else gets hurt. Someone who can maintain a solid low-ish 4 ERA and toss those 5 IP. It costs nothing to bring someone like that in. And if they're brought up, their pro-rated deal won't break anyone. They might cost as little as $5-7M with incentives, again, with pro-ration accounted for.

Doc Munson, I agree with your general premise.

I really liked the way the 2023 team was generally built with a couple exceptions. Not going to rehash that. And if that team played the way they did the 2nd half all year long, they would have won 90 games. Again, not going to rehash.

In a few ways, I actually like this 2024 version better, with the caveat that there remains a rotation question, and the possibilities of regression, or at least "speed bumps" for some of the young talent. For example, I still trust a full season of the young Wallner vs the "WTH" Gallo. And I'm very encouraged about the pen, and it's depth. A healthier Correa and a healthier part-time Buxton add to my encouragement. 

I DON'T believe Santana is anything more than a time share 1B, PH, and occasional bat against RH pitching. But he's fine IF that is his role. I'd still trust a RH OF to augment the lineup against LHP vs trusting Martin to be ready at this time, or rely on my personal champion Helman to be added to the roster. (Miranda is already in AAA due to rehabbing his shoulder still and the signing of Santana).

Other than that, I feel this is a pretty fine team overall to begin 2024.

I LOVE that the prospects have remained untouched! Despite 2023 graduates like Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and Varland, the system still sits middle of the pack. Martin and Lee should graduate this year as well. And despite being a bit top heavy with talent, but deep, there's a real chance that 2024 is going to provide some BIG dividends in the system from Emma, Gonzalez, Rosario, Schobel and Keaschall, a HUGE group of arms from Festa and Raya on down, as well as others, including a few IL signing kids who didn't do so well in the low minors but might make a jump this year. 

We might even have a better idea how good and deep our system is to actually make a key trade for a SP mid year. Unfortunately, there's enough question marks about some top 20 prospects like Severino, Emma, and others, where we might wish we had made a move when we could. But I do like the long play idea.

I DON'T agree that buying a strong rotation arm will cost the same, or less, come the deadline this year. With so many teams still in contention, theoretically, pickings might be small and expensive. Unless there's a chance teams might reflect this soon on the results of 2023 and just decide to NOT be the Angels and make moves anyway. That's a pretty big ask/hope.

I guess the positive spin is, we'll have a better idea about the top and depth of our system by then to understand what we have, how good and deep it is, and if we can afford to make that kind of move.

But I guess I'm with you and the FO at this point. Add 1 more RH OF bat, add a veteran SP on a milb rehab deal, and go with what we have.

I don't think we have a bad team AT ALL. 

On 2/13/2024 at 9:55 AM, harmony55 said:

At FanGraphs, the Twins with a modest 85 wins are the only AL Central team projected to post a winning record:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

With 12 postseason slots only a few teams should be "out of it" as the trade deadline approaches.

FanGraphs gives the Twins slightly better than even odds (52.6%) to win the American League Central:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

They also have the 6th highest chance of winning the World Series in MLB according to them.  I think this means they have a roster built to win in the playoffs.  or atleast more equipped to win there then the regular season.  

On 2/14/2024 at 8:30 AM, chpettit19 said:

If the Twins chose to knowingly eat 4 mil on a guy they didn't think could play this year to trade one of their 4 or 5 best hitters coming off an ALDS trip to gain a reliever with 1 successful MLB season at the age of 32 and 2 prospects in A ball  (and a short side of a platoon 1B if you want to add Santana) fans should be pissed. If they did that trade expecting it to be likely that they'd have to start DeSclafani on the 60-day IL that trade was horrible.

Especially after getting "surprised" by Mahle and Paddack.  Most likely option is that they took the discount on a guy who has fought injuries for two years, think he's finally healthy and can get decent production.

Regarding the Eppler/Gallo question, the Eppler suspension was a "clean this crap up warning" to the league.  Eppler wasn't going to be a GM this year and suspending an active GM is another level higher.  He probably was an offender but this is a low cost/impact suspension.  I suspect we will see some cleaned up injury reporting going forward.  MLB would be wise to see the scrutiny the NFL got with injury reporting this year and try to head it off before it becomes big news.  It feels like that's part of what they are doing. 

I’m beginning to think the FO is keeping their spending powder a bit dry to have the capacity to make a biggish pre deadline move to put the roster in true contending shape. 

42 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’m beginning to think the FO is keeping their spending powder a bit dry to have the capacity to make a biggish pre deadline move to put the roster in true contending shape. 

Same thought here. We have a tradeable draft pick. We have several questions with each of the #2 thru#9 SP. We have time to answer many questions and time to shop for the best rental or hot hand with a couple years of team control. If one guy in house takes a major step forward, the FO can buy some other pressing need. 

@chpettit19 As with any trade, time has to go by before fans can scream good or bad. I would personally tag Santanas signing on to the trade because it happened because of the trade. 
starting with Santana, he is a better fit for the ‘24 team because his bat is equal to polo and he checks a better box on 1B. Thats a win. 

Topa can only be only be a win if he matches his ‘23 otherwise he is just in someone else's way.

DeSclafani is a win if he is healthy and has an ERA under 4.3 over 150 innings. Thats a tall order. 
 

polos absence, this will be hard to judge thru the lens of a butterfly effect. Not just ‘24 but future seasons because of the 2 prospects. 

I like the possibility of a successful trade because we have 3 possible positions that can have success in ‘24. 
 

As of now, the trade has many possibilities of outcomes. 
 

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

@chpettit19 As with any trade, time has to go by before fans can scream good or bad. I would personally tag Santanas signing on to the trade because it happened because of the trade. 
starting with Santana, he is a better fit for the ‘24 team because his bat is equal to polo and he checks a better box on 1B. Thats a win. 

Topa can only be only be a win if he matches his ‘23 otherwise he is just in someone else's way.

DeSclafani is a win if he is healthy and has an ERA under 4.3 over 150 innings. Thats a tall order. 
 

polos absence, this will be hard to judge thru the lens of a butterfly effect. Not just ‘24 but future seasons because of the 2 prospects. 

I like the possibility of a successful trade because we have 3 possible positions that can have success in ‘24. 
 

As of now, the trade has many possibilities of outcomes. 
 

I don't agree that you can't judge a trade immediately. You can't judge the final outcome, but you can judge the process for this season right now. For this season they traded one of their 5 best hitters for a reliever, a back of the rotation starter, and a short-side of a platoon 1B. It's fine if people like that, but I don't. Polanco is clearly the best player in that group. I don't want quantity, I want quality. 

Carlos Santana's bat is not at all equal to Polanco's. Polanco is a life-long shortstop, he can play 1B. Santana is a short side of a platoon 1B/DH. That is not more useful than Polanco. And he's 38 in April. His big bounce back OPS against righties last year was .727. It was in the .650 range for multiple seasons before that. Polanco's was .775 last year and over .800 for his career. There's no argument to be made that Santana is an equal hitter to Polanco.

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't agree that you can't judge a trade immediately. You can't judge the final outcome, but you can judge the process for this season right now. For this season they traded one of their 5 best hitters for a reliever, a back of the rotation starter, and a short-side of a platoon 1B. It's fine if people like that, but I don't. Polanco is clearly the best player in that group. I don't want quantity, I want quality. 

Carlos Santana's bat is not at all equal to Polanco's. Polanco is a life-long shortstop, he can play 1B. Santana is a short side of a platoon 1B/DH. That is not more useful than Polanco. And he's 38 in April. His big bounce back OPS against righties last year was .727. It was in the .650 range for multiple seasons before that. Polanco's was .775 last year and over .800 for his career. There's no argument to be made that Santana is an equal hitter to Polanco.

Those stats may not be equal but others are. There is also availability to take AB’s. IL stints are definitely in polo’s favor. Now if Santana implodes like Gallo, I will be the 2nd guy to call him a bumb and rip the FO. 

6 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Those stats may not be equal but others are. There is also availability to take AB’s. IL stints are definitely in polo’s favor. Now if Santana implodes like Gallo, I will be the 2nd guy to call him a bumb and rip the FO. 

I didn't call him a bum, but he's not as good as Polanco. There's no argument that he is. 

On 2/14/2024 at 9:59 PM, DocBauer said:

Again, reportedly, SWR has been in Ft Myers, for about a month I believe, working on his delivery to gain velocity and more "comfort" in his motion. I believe it's a delivery he moved away from previously. Still young, hopefully we will see real growth this year, because we're going to need hum at some point.

This new news on SWR answers a question I asked about in a thread about him that went unanswered. He had gone to an overhead delivery because it made his pitches really move and led to the high Stuff+ rating. My question was whether it limited his velocity ceiling. Apparently it did so he has gone towards the much more popular three quarters delivery. Hopefully we see him consistently back in the mid 90's. This is a big year for the young man. 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I didn't call him a bum, but he's not as good as Polanco. There's no argument that he is. 

Oh I know but if he pulls a gallo ‘23 on us. We all will and the FO will hear about it. Lol