SO all two of you who occasionally stumble upon my ramblings are aware that I have posted multiple blogs regarding the actual affordability of Ohtani for the Twins. and the fallacy  of "oh but we are just a small market team, we cant afford to go big swimming in the deep end of the FA pool"  mindset. Specifically when it came to Ohtani.  In my last post I spoke about how even at 10 years $650M deal... and yes I thought I was going overboard at $65M AAV to prove a point. turns out I UNDER valued the deal. 

Not to rehash the premise, but it is based on the Twins being one of the team who could actually afford him the easiest due to the significant money he woudl bring in. as well as the Twins being able to command strong new TV contract with Ohtani on board. The new TV contracts (and lack thereof that is giving Twins cover to lower payroll) would most likely be the same or even higher for the Twins with Ohtani on board.

As mentioned above I underestimated the money it would take to land Ohtani, but also I apparently underestimated the revenues he would drive as well. Reports out of LA indicate that ticket prices for next year will be on average 71% higher than this past year. That means that on average, with the same attendance they will generate 71% more revenues from ticket sales.  Before getting into how this number would translate to the Twins lets do some quick math for the Dodgers. last year their home attendance was 3,837,079 and their average ticket price was $171.67. that equates to rounded up to $659M.  a 71% increase of $659M =$467M.  So $70M salary (that is mostly deferred) drives a $467M increase in ticket revenue?  hmmm, yeah I'd say that is a good deal.

Now the Twins are not the Dodgers, but lets assume the same 71% increase in ticket prices. the Twins sold 1,974,124 tickets last year. at an average ticket price of just $40.61. a pittance compared to the Dodgers. that is $80M in ticket sales. a 71% increase would be an ADDITIONAL $57M in revenues.   BUT WAIT!!!!  The Twins did not sell out every game!!  they averaged 24,371 tickets per game in a stadium that holds 39,504.  Even if Ohtani drove ONLY an additional 10,000 per game, and at even a 50% ticket price hike,  that would translate into $168M in revenue JUST from ticket sales increase.  SO a $70M... even a $75M overpay for Ohtani would net a conservative +$86M in revenue from ticket sales. Again that is JUST ticket sales, and he already not only pays for himself, but MAKES the team money just by him being a Twin.  Of course the ticket revenues get divvied up. but you get the picture.  Add in teh increased TV contract they would be able to sign, add in teh increased away ticket sales revenue share, add in the concession from jersey sales, add in all that and more, and yes the Twins coudl EASILY have afforded Ohtani at ANY salary,

Again this is not to say Ohtani would have signed here, but is showing how in this case, with this player, "we cant afford him" is just not valid. The Twins have actuaries that could more clearly demonstrate the value of Ohtani than just some schmuck on a computer. But he was eminently affordable.

Oh and what else was $70M?  oh yeah, the already cleared contracts of Sonny Gray, Joey Gallo, Michael Taylor, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagan, Kenta Maeda,  plus the very replaceable (players) contracts of Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Vazquez)  All of these contracts will be off the books before the start of the season (MAYBE they keep Kepler) anyways, so why not spend that $75M on Ohtani and STILL only be at last years payroll, and generate enough additional revenue (detailed above) to actually sign MORE quality Free Agents!! and STILL be more profitable.

Now lets go start getting excited about getting BOTH Larnach AND Wallner in the lineup at the same time!!!  now THAT will move the turnstile!!