Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Should the Twins be the front runner for Ohtani??

Doc Munson



Twins Video

First off, NO... I do not expect the Twins to be anywhere NEAR in the running for Ohtani.  He most like lt has zero interest in a midwest location, and we will not spend that much.  The question however is SHOULD we be in the running? and the answer is an unequivocal YES.

Everyone is talking about how we will be lowering payroll, primarily because of the lack of TV contract. I would suggest that actually signing Ohtani would give the Twins leverage to sign a bigger contract.  The guy is a mega draw!  Lets play with some hypothetical numbers.

For easy math let's throw out a $50M AAV for Ohtani.  the numbers that have floated around are that the Twins had about $50M coming in from local TV rights, and that now people are guestimating that would drop to somewhere around $25M.  I would venture to guess that EVERY sports broadcasting company would be battling it out to be the ones to be able to carry Ohtani's games, even locally. With the guaranteed increased viewership with Ohtani, you would think broadcast companies would come back in even at the same contract details as the previous one.

Now I do not claim to know details of the previous contracts, and how lucrative they have been for the TV companies, or if they were a big reason they sought bankruptcy protection, btu I would assume that a team with Ohtani alone could draw enough. viewership... ad revenue, that at the same contract that brought the Twins $50M would be doable.


Working on that assumption would be that without Ohtani we receive $25M, with Ohtani we receive $50M.  That $25M offsets the first $25M of Ohtani's salary.  That means the Twins would need to clear another $25M from the payroll in order to remain at last years levels. And again, the only, or at least main reason the Twins are cutting payroll is the lack of TV contract money.

Looking at the Twins roster it does not take a genius how to clear that money. Kepler and Polanco together free up around $20M. There is another $22M being freed up with Sonny Gray, Kyle Farmer and Kenta Maeda not being back with us. These moves alone more than free up the remaining balance to cover Ohtani.

Factor in other potential cost saving measures like moving Vasquez and Pagan =$13.5M, Gallo's $11M and Mahle's $7.5M coming off the books..

The point of all of this rambling is to say that the current lack of TV contract is EXACTLY WHY the Twins should be a front runner for Ohtani.  You sign him, you overpay for himif needed. and then you leverage him to sign a much bigger TV deal than you would otherwise sign without him.

and that is not even factoring in ticket sales, concessions, etc. Ohtani's deal at ANY price will more than pay for itself, but more so if he signs with a team without a current TV deal. Teams with TV deals in place will not be able to leverage his star status for more TV money.

Again, key word in the title here is SHOULD, I know he and they WONT.  :(



Recommended Comments

 I would also think that signing Yamamoto would have a similar impact to revenue but on a smaller scale.  But Yamamoto also can probably be signed for less than half of what Otani will get.  It's a good time to open the doors to the vault and bring home a World Series title.

Link to comment
3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

 I would also think that signing Yamamoto would have a similar impact to revenue but on a smaller scale.  But Yamamoto also can probably be signed for less than half of what Otani will get.  It's a good time to open the doors to the vault and bring home a World Series title.

Can they sign Tsyoshi Nishioka too?

Link to comment

I don’t believe things are so grim that we have to resort to running Ohtani’s DoorDash orders… yet. I think we still have enough guys to try baseball. 

Link to comment

The Twins already have their Ohtani, he's called Buck Correa at a cost of $48.4M. Last year he had 181 Hits, 35HR and 107 RBI.

Link to comment

A few years back, before the front office got more imaginative and aggressive, I was under the impression that either Falvey or Levine had a direct line to guys like Olney and Heyman because we'd always hear, after the fact, that the Twins were the 'mystery team' bidding for a high-priced free agent like Darvish or Harper. This reminds me very much of that. There's zero chance of the Twins pursuing Ohtani and there's even less of a chance of Ohtani's camp entertaining what the Twins could offer.

Link to comment

You know, they should be monitoring the situation. Should Ohtani for some odd reason not want a long term deal so he could heal up as a pitcher the Twins should be the premiere destination for that type free agent. No more bargain basement rehabs, only high end flips from now on. The Correa model again. Were they to be used by either Correa or Ohtani I'd still have the memories.

How does our GIF machine not have an American Pie, I've been used? I've been used. I've been used! Cool! GIF? Anyway, insert that here.

Link to comment

This is the way I see it, too. In fact, it's the way that I've always seen it in regards to free agency. However, magnified here by the global reach of a player like Ohtani. 

I have no idea how much the Twins would need to overpay to lure him here, but I suspect it's significant.

Link to comment

This is a strong reason why I am not immediately buying into the "we are cutting payroll" narrative.  I believe the Twins are saying that as a little bit of an excuse in case they can't complete signings, but also as a smokescreen for their moves in the market.  Money drives most of the Twins decisions, Ohtani is a lottery ticket for a team like the Twins.

Signing Correa was strictly a cost/benefit move.  They basically got Correa below market value due to the way his ankle was being handled.  Ignore Correa's numbers last year for a minute, but signing him turned the Twins into real players on the Market.

Ohtani's on-field value should remain extremely high for at least 3-4 more years from a dual-threat point of view.  Offensively he could provide value till the very end of the contract.  Ohtani's off-field value is off the charts.  Any team in the league should have no problem paying him $50m/year as his value will be measured in multiple times that figure annually.  Personally, I think a team like the Twins should offer $60m per because of the impact he would have here.

That being said, Ohtani will choose his destination.  Even if the Twins offered a comparable salary, all of the public smoke suggest a big city team is his priority.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Create New...