Doc Munson
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Even the most optimistic of Twins fans now has to realize it is time to sell. Another day and another loss to another last place team. Out of the break the Twins had a chance to make a statement with 6 of first 9 games against last place teams the Rockies and the Nationals. They did not disappoint. From making a statement anyways, just not the statement we were hoping for. Becoming the first team to lose a series ALL YEAR to the Rockies, and then losing a 3 game series 2-1 at home against the Nationals. Yes we won 2 of 3 against Dodgers, but cannot put much into that given everything else that has happened, and the Dodgers have been in a funk. SO now there is NOTHING getting in the way of the Twins making moves. Gone is the "soft sell" or "soft rebuild" Now we need to maximize talent in return for top potential trade chips. SELL SELL SELL!!! and not just the Ty Frances and Harrison Baderses of the world. Is Texas a potential new trade partner? and if so how aggressive will they be? With Seager back and healthy again, with deGrom back and healthy again, the Rangers are making their usual 2nd half run. now just 4 games back in the division and .5 out of the wildcard. Texas is looking for a big arm in the bullpen, and could use a RH bat. The Twins can be in position to provide BOTH in one trade!!! Wili Castro may not be a BIG bat, but he is a QUALITY bat and his versatility will offset some of his lack of power. then of course there is Jax and Duran. at this point we should move at least one of them. Just how much would Texas be willing give up to significantly shore up their chances? Would they be Sebastian Walcott willing? I would assume he would be a non starter from Texas' perspective, but would he really?? While he is the #4 overall prospect in the game, and is seen as close to a cant miss as you can have. Prospects are indeed prospects until proven otherwise. A career .257 hitter with a 29% K rate and .783 OPS doesn't scream future HOF, but the kid is only 19 playing at AA. the Rangers challenge their prospects, and the talent is there. Walcott is a SS/3B. Seager is only 31, a perennial MVP candidate and under contract for 6 more years. He is not going anywhere... SS BLOCKED Josh Jung, was a #8 overall pick. While he hasn't really blossomed into his potential is still there. Josh Smith is also serviceable, and both just 27, so while 3B by no means BLOCKED, they can live with what they have there. We need to shoot for the moon and go hard after Walcott, We offer Duran, Castro, and Emmanual Rodriguez. for Walcott. Duran is a proven commodity and has a ton of trade value, dominant arm and controllable for a few more years. Castro was an AllStar, a consistent hitter and the RH bat Texas needs. And yes we throw in Rodriguez. Is this an overpay? possibly, Rodriguez could end up being a perennial Allstar on the level of Walcott or better. But he has just never stayed healthy!!! at this point we can no longer have top prospects with health histories as part of our future plan. As far as Walcott's fit here? We have Correa. Yes he has a no trade clause, but would he waive it to go to a contender? Would he move to 3B to protect his health? Possibly on both, and yes we have Royce Lewis at 3B, but is that still his final home? We wont have to make that call for another 1-2 years. and with Walcott's arm and speed could make a transition similar to Fernando Tatis into the OF. and while having to wait 1-2 years to see anything from trading Duran, Castro and a top prospect of our own may look like a tear down rebuild move, would it really? Yes losing Duran would hurt. but we would still have Jax, and what good is an elite closer if we are not in closing positions? Castro is 99.9% gone after this year anyway as an UFA. So that is not a loss moving forward. Losing Rodriguez could be a short term hit, but again he just cant stay healthy, and if we believe in Walker Jenkins, then he sort of buffers the loss as they both had similar time frames and both are OF. My new Endorsement... Trade Duran and whoever else we need to get Sebastian Walcott!!
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I think a great "soft sell" move would be the Twins trading 1 or 2 of Martin, Julien, Miranda to Oakland for Luis Severino. Severino is having a perceived bad year, He actually has value. His split are solid away from that minor league ballpark the As play in, with an ERA of 3.03 on the road vs. 6.68 at home. while he is not a strikeout machine, he i slimiting hitters to a .212 avg on the road vs .303 at home. Giving up .820 OPS at home but just .605 on the road. He just signed a 3 year $67M deal this past offseason. Part of the reason for that is the league mandate that Oakland had to spend to a certain threshhold. I am sure MLB woudl frown on them just trading to slash salaries after that mandate, but they couldnt block a deal based on "baseball sense" So lets say Twins send 1-2 of Julien, Martin, Miranda to Oakland for Severino where Twins take on 100% of remaining salary this year, but Oakland retains 50% the next 2 years. That would basically mean the Twins get Luis Servino on a 2 year deal (after this year at an average of $12M per). 2 years at $24M total would be a great sign as a FA signing of a pitcher of Severinos potential!! If we get the "away" version of Severino for that money that is a STEAL!!! Oakland is not contending this year, and most likely nto until they move to Vegas which is still not until 2028. There is ZERO need to have Severino on the roster, and he wouldn't have been if they weren't forced to spend. Would Severino be better than... Paddack? Zebby? Fest? Bullpen Game? I think so!! and next year with a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, a potentially healthy Ober, Severino, would be a great base for a new ownership group to play with. And none of Martin, Julien, Miranda, etc will be part of the future anyways. Build for the future without "selling" now.
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Such a weird position, Having a record better than only 3 teams in the AL screams SEL SELL SELL!!! At the same time a team being only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot screams BUY BUY BUY!!! Especially for a cheap... I mean financially challenged team like the Twins. That Playoff revenue would be such a welcome bonus. The Twins have a good number of peices that wont, or shouldn't be back next year so should we move them now if there is any value? Twins also have some decent prospects that may "rot on the vine" or otherwise never fully materialize that currently may have decent value for some win now upgrades. All of that being said there is ONE move I would love to see us make that could be both a BUY and s SELL. Trade for Ke'Bryan Hayes from Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh may not want to move him, while he is a great defender, maybe they are growing frustrted with his lack of offense and woudl consider moving him. They are also a small market team who would like his salary, butif they had a young replacement maybe they would move on. PROs: 1) Hayes is affordable!!! He is under team control for another 4 years with a team option for the 5tth. at $7M, $7M, $8m, $8m with teh team option of $12M when he will still only be 30!! 2) he is a Gold Glove 3B!! He won GG at 3b in 2023 and is the clear front runner this year as well. 3) He is young 4) a great teammate 5) decent to good speed CONs: 1) and really only 1, but is it too big of one? or can it eventually change? and that is his bat. Can we afford to take on a bat like his at a "power position" ? not optimal, but with the defense that comes with it I will take it. especially at that salary!! This move could also allow us to move Lewis to... FIRST??? Lewis's injuries have not been from fielding, they have been from running, so this wouldnt completely prevent recurring injuries, but it could help take SOME wear and tear off of him. With Hayes and Correa at 3B & SS that is as good a left side of infield as you will get. Even if Correa is aging. Moving Brooks Lee over to 2B (or Keaschall when he returns) and an IF of Lewis, Brooks/Keaschall/Correa/Hayes would be a nice core. Would we need to give up a Lee or a Keaschall to get him? maybe but I think that would still be worth it. A proven commodity vs unproven talent.
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Matt Wallner Will Be Just Fine
Doc Munson replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wallner has ALWAYS struggled early in seasons in his careers, and has ALWAYS (or nearly always) come on strong in second halves. I expect nothing different this year.- 31 replies
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- matt wallner
- miguel sano
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If there is NOT interest in Dom Smith on the Twins part, there SHOULD be. With Lewis to start the season on the IL, this means Brooks Lee will... oops maybe not... I mean Miranda will most likely start out at 3B. Our injury history shows we will need depth. Hopefully Lewis can overcome the latest lower body injury miss little time and play at a high level the rest of the year. Broosk Lee has a known chronic back issue, an dhas missed time every year because of it. He should be used primarily as trade bait. hopefully he can get healthy, put up numbers to boost his trade value, but either way he is out again. for how long who knows. Mickey Gasper apparently went out with a potential significant injury. just the THOUGHT of Gasper would be uttered in a sentence when talking about legitimate Twins plans is scary. But he has had a good spring. If Gasper is out an extended period, then his 40 man spot should be used for another player. Dom Smith is suddenly a very solid addition. He has experience in the OF, and while yet another LH OF seems overly redundant, Dom also has value at 1B, where he is an above average defender. HE would be a great platoon player with Ty France. Who else woudl play 1B with righties on the mound? Julien?? Castro?? The Twins could get him on the cheap after he opted out of his minor league deal in New York with a strong Spring. I am not hoping for a significant injury to Gasper, but if there is the best move the Twins can make is to sign Dom Smith.
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Why is Brock Stewart a lock? he had 1 good season in 2023, and then another back in 2017. he was average at best last year. Castellano should be ahead o fhim. Why is Tonkin a lock? he was pretty good last year, but I would again take Castellano over him. Coulombe I can see. he is/was good and a lefty. Swap out Tonkin and Stewart with Castellano and Alcala and you got yourself a bullpen
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The Twins would be remiss if they didnt inquire on a Yankees trade involving Pablo Lopez. I have mentioned this before in other ramblings. But with both the Gerrit Cole TJ confirmation and Stanton looking toast, The Twins owe it to themselves to try and go big. Lopez last year had an up and down year, a bad first 3 months then a good july and August, followed by an average September. I love Lopez, I think we all love Lopez. While it was just 1 year, and it wasn't a HORRIBLE year, it still was his highest ERA, WHIP, and BAA since 2019. Is it a sign of things to come as he starts the 1st of 3 years at $21.5M? If we cant get much for him, then it is worth keeping him and assuming the blip. If we could get a strong return, then the Twins should consider movign him (somewhat sadly). How can we get a haul? Even the Yankees hit a payroll threshold at some point, and given they tried trading away Stroman and his $18M during offseason I think shows they are at that point. They wouldnt be super excited about taking on $21M, even for a top of the rotation arm like Lopez. so how do we incentivize? By taking back salary from them. Trading Lopez would not be a salary dumping move by the Twins at this point, it would be an asset collecting move. Stanton will be lucky to provide the Yankees anything this year... possibly ever??? So lets have the Twins take him on and his Salary. We eat 100% of his salary this year and the Yanks eat the remaining salary for future years. Heck for the right value in return it wouldn't be horrible for the Twins to take on the entire contract. For this year Stanton's $32M would be partially offset by movign Lopez's $21.5M. and if we throw in a potential lefty DH like Larnach in the deal that is another $2M. so this deal would increase our payroll by about $8M thi syear and not add talent to the roster. This doesnt sound good at face value. BUT... the next 2 years of Stantons deal are $29M and $25M, of which Miami is still paying $10M each year, so the cost to the Twins would be $19M and $15M. vs Lopez's $21.5M each year, if you look at it over a 3 year span it is a break even proposition. (and this trade brings up potential side trade below). Lets say Yankees retain the $19M and $15M that is not owed by Miami over the next 2 years, and we eat the full salary for this year. If we send Lopez and say a lefty DH/OF in Larnach. could we get either George Lombard (1st option) or Spencer Jones (2nd option) .. or both???? If we could get either of them, then this screams to be done, as mentioned while we increase payroll this year by $8M, if the Yankees eat payroll the next 2 years then we clear $21.5M each of the next 2 years. That alone is a win. 1 year of "wasted"$8M in exchange for $43M saving over the next 2 years, PLUS get a top prospect?? PLUS... We would have an inside track on the option to trade for a pitcher at the trade deadline to replace the quality of Lopez. We all know Miami is going to be horrible again, we all know Miami will look to move money. With us now owning Stanton's contract, we would have the option of taking on the $10M Miami owes Stanton each of the final years in order to maximize a return. Would a struggling Miami team that is losing money be willing to trade Sandy Alcantara (save his $17.3M) for little return if they are also freed up from the $10M commitment to Stanton? Maybe even Alcantara and Max Meyer in exchange for the $10M annually and an expendable depth piece between Brooks Lee, Eduard Julien, Juan Miranda? The Twins are in position to leverage our rotational depth to get a top prospect(s) from the Yankees, and even resecure/upgrade rotational depth.
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A team like the Twins needs to always be internally theorizing moves at every level in every situation. Twins cannot simply just buy talent on the open market. They must try and leverage situations when situations arise. Could such a situation have just arrived in New York? Gerrit Cole has a barking elbow. An elbow that more and more are believing to be potentially season ending. Of course we need to wait and see exactly what the tests reveal. That is a huge blow to a team that has a mandate of winning every year. year in and year out. There are other pitching concerns as well. Luis Gil, the reigning AL ROY will be starting the season on the IL and will miss a few months. This leaves the Yankees with the following potential rotation. * Max Fried. a legit starter, they are good here * Carlos Rodon. Has the potential to flash ACE stuff, but inconsistent and has his own injury history. Can they rely on him? Rodon has not put back to back full seasons together since breaking into the league in 2015. * Marcus Stroman. he of the "will anyone please take him off of our hands?!?!?!" ilk. a 4.31 era last year is not HORRIBLE, he hasnt had an era above 4.00 before last year since 2018. He is still serviceable, but that is possibly his ceiling at this point? and the Yankees clearly are not sold on him. * Clark Schmidt. He had a good bounce back season last year and a 2.85 ERA is great. but averaging less than 5 innings per start isnt exactly an innings eater in the rotation. it makes him a good #4. * Carlos Carrasco. I guess we have to include him here right? I mean he does have a pulse, and he is on the roster. While I loves me some Carrasco, he is just not a season long starter * Will Warren. a 25 year old top pitching prospect for the Yanks. while he had a bad debut last year he has some stuff and is turning heads this spring, but again unproven in New York is scary!! With all of this in mind, just how desperate are/should the Yankees be to improve their rotation? And back to the Twins, how aggressive should they be to actually HELP the Evil Empire? And at what cost? The Yankees would not give up major league talent, as they would be looking to contend if they are bringing pitching. So we would be looking at the prospect market. Next internal questions should be: 1) What is in the Yankees System we would want? 2) What would it cost to get them? now back to the original question... WOULD/SHOULD we move pitching to help NY? We have perceived depth, but how much of the quality would we move for prospects? Lombard is most likely untouchable, and Jones is intriguing. But what if the Twins offered Pablo Lopez, a potential Ace or #2 starter in that rotation. and lets say we add a Trevor Larnach/Matt Wallner as a possible replacement for Stanton. Lopez and Larnach/Wallner for George Lombard and/or Spencer Jones.
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Who says no to some of the following trade options? #1 Pablo Lopez and Christian vazquez to Red Sox for Tristan Casas and Miguel Blies: Why it works for Twins: They are able ot clear $32M from the books while at the same time solving their 1B issue. they get a prospect with MASSIVE upside who was showing big potential before injuries in 2024. This also allows for further moves with our infield depth. BU ta clear 1B upgrade and clearing $32M is that too much to pass up? Why it works for Red Sox: Red Sox are having internal discussion of moving Rafael Devers to 1B, and Casas is definitely expendable in that case. Red Sox need another starter and can easily take on teh $10 owed Vazquez. #2 Renew trade acquaintences with Miami: and Brooks Lee, Eduard Julien, Gabriel Gonzalez to Miami in exchange for Sandy Alcantara Why it works for Twins: Th eTwins once again dip into IF depth to acquire a starter from Miami.Twins still have Lewis, Correa, Miranda (Casas if make that deal), the supposed near MLB ready 5 tool prospect in Keaschall, plus utility guys in Martin and Castro. Maybe the Twins can do with with keeping one of teh three and/or swapping out with another top 25 Twins prospect. Alcantara is coming off TJ, but he is nearly 2 years removed and all accounts are he is back to his previous injury self. Twins still get 3 years of control Why it Works for Miami: If Miami is in yet another "redo" mode, do they want to keep an "older player" at his price? They have already moved Luzardo for 2 prospects. Would they move a more expensive starter for THREE quality prospects/young players?? They coudl get 3 young MLB ready (or near) positional starters. #3 is a FA edition of "who says no"? instead of a team, it is Twins or the FA Twins sign BOTH Justin Verlander & Max Scherzer to matching 3 year deals averagign about $15M per with some built in protections for both. Something liek $12M for year 1. Year 2 is $15M with mutual options. Player opt out options, or Twins can buyout at $3M (this basically means it is a $15 year year 1 deal). Year 3 at $18M but contains vesting options based on innings or performance in year 2. Why this works for teh Twins: These are low risk moves. there is built in protections with the mutual option and the vesting option for years 2 and 3. While neither can legitimately be counted on for 30+ starts, they would both be great mentors for Ryan, Ober, and the rest of our young pitchers. This gives us 6 deep with Ryan, Ober, (Lopez, or Alcantara if we do/dont do any of those other moves) Verlander, Scherzer, SWR. plus our ready/near ready young guys means we would have the depth to ease them along or deal with injuries. From a financial perspective they will sell tickets. and if Verlander performs and we can retain him we have the chance at the run for 300. Why this works for JV/Max: Neither pitcher is set to get any offer above say $12M on even a 1 year deal due to age and recent injury. This give them the opportunity to maximize their value and provide flexibility on their end.
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It is sad we need to be financially constrained, but since we are, I will keep screaming from the mountaintops until this gets done or these parties are no longer available. And first off I HATE moving him!! But if we are talking about clearing salary and moving pitching, how are we NOT talking about Pablo Lopez? A) he would command the biggest return. B) he would clear the most money and C) He would allow us to package Vazquez to clear more money. No other team would be incentivized to bring on Vazquez with an Ober or Ryan. The perfect trade partner right now are the Red Sox. Move Lopez and Vazquez in the same deal to the Sox in exchange for Tristan Casas and Miguel Bleis. That clears $32M and give us a legit starting 1B. Then to offset pitching loss sign BOTH Scherzer and Verlander to 3 years deals. with player options after the 1st year. I think could easily get them for an average of $12M per. So Verlander and Scherzer on 3 year $36M deals (on average maybe one has to be a bit higher who knows). I would say Verlander, Scherzer, Casas in exchange for Lopez and Vazquez is a MASSIVE overhaul!! PLUS would be saving close to $10M in total. If they can be even league average pitchers it is a Phenomenal deal!! WIN If they are hurt and/or suck then on the hook for 2 more years (Unless you make year 2 a mutual Option with say an $8M buyout, then at least you get the third year off the books). LOSS (but a manageable loss) If Twins are out of contention but they are pitching well then you have 2 strong trade deadline pieces, and can move mor salary and pick up more assets. WIN.
- 62 replies
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- chris paddack
- christian vazquez
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The Twins (as with any team) would be crazy excited to land Roki Sasaki. Would he choose to sign here? Maybe, maybe not. The Twins do have one thing in their favor which is the fact that they are in the small group of teams who can offer him the most money. How huge would a Sasaki signing be? It would be literally franchise altering!! Having a talent like Sasaki with international appeal on essentially a bargain contract would instantly increase the value of a franchise that is looking for a buyer. On the field it has a potential impact well beyond landing an Ace. With Adding Sasaki to Ober, Ryan, Lopez SWR would make for a strong top 5!! But it would...PST nomination in the making here... Give the Twins an embarrassment of riches from which we could trade. Combine depth with Possibility of Twins wanting to trim payroll, and that makes Pable Lopez a phenomenal trade piece. Lets say a team like the Red Sox who are in need of pitching. a Lopez for Tristan Casas and a prospect like Miquel Bleis or Kristian Campbell. There is talk of moving Devers to 1B making Casas expendable and gettable. Pair up one or both of those prospects makes this a fair deal for both sides. Heck we should be able to even demand that Vazquez and his salary are part of this trade as well. The kicker is by moving both Lopez's $21.75M and Vazquez's $10M means we coudl then make matching 3 year $36-45M deals to both Justin Verlander adn Max SCherzer. at say between $12-15M each we add 2 more quality (albeit older and coming off injuries) starting pitchers. Now at the same (or less) salary levels we have a rotations of Sasaki, Ober, Ryan, Verlander, Scherzer, SWR. That is 6 deep not even counting any of our young pitchers, which would allow us to take it slowly with Ryan, Verlander, Scherzer coming back from health issues. and give us protection from new injuries. While at the same time adding a big bat like Casas and have a potential infield of Casas, Lewis, Correa, Miranda. providing even more infield depth and havign Julien or Lee also as valuable trade chips. But all onyl if we get Sasaki
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... and why is he on the 40 man roster over Kala'i Rosario? Granted Rosario is by no means a cant miss prospect, and there is a possibility that he will not be claimed in the Rule 5 draft, Why the heck do you send him to AFL and then not protect him? With no disrespect to Helman... Helman is 28 tears old, will not crack opening day roster when we have Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, and even Austin Martin? and if you believe reports of us being linked to Tyler Oniel there is no immediate need, and at 28 he is not the future. By mid year Emmanual Rodriguez coudl be ready, and by next year Walker Jenkins, again confirming there is not a need for a 28 year old as part of the future. And again while being drafted in Rule 5 is no guarantee, after playing in 67 games at AA last year, and in the AFL the last 2 years he is definitley in the window of possibility!! and we risk that for Helman?
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Carlos Correa Trade Buzz Is Heating Up
Doc Munson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Of course trading Correa woudl be a very viable option. Especially for a team looking to keep payroll down, and we coudl get some top talent from either Mets of Yankees, BUT where exactly does this fallacy that we cannot keep Correa's payroll and properly build around??? If we are talking about a window where we have Correa, that is a 3 year window. his contract is only guaranteed through 2028 with all other years having vesting options based on PA. and at numbers he has not hit in 4years, so lets assume he does not get 575 ABs in 2028 to vest the 2029 season. In the next 3 years we have control over... Twins currently have an ACE (Lopez) and 2 young quality developing pitchers in Ober and Ryan, plus potential with SWR so while it would be GREAT to add more top line pitching, there is nto a screaming need there. and not for the next 2+years.. Worst case scenario we cant move Vazques or Paddack and that combined $17.5M comes off the books after 2025.. The following young players will still be under team control, unless traded... Wallner potential starting RF Lewis potential starter SOMEWHERE in IF for good or for bad... Buxton on the books til 2028 Larnach potential starting OF Brooks Lee... hasnt proven self yet, but potenial starter Julian... jury still out butpotential starter Miranda... not consistently proven, but potential plus young potential "studs" in Jenkins and Rodriguez So really only need to fill a hole or two here or there while still keeping Correa -
Of course this is completely made up wild speculation, but how cool woudl this scenario be?? Arod and Lore are in squabbles about the Wolves ownership.. Mark Cuban has gone on record stating he would become an owner of a new team if Shaq was involved. And Derek Jeter has always had aspirations of ownership. How about this for a dual ownerhsip group. Arod, Jeter, Cuban, and Shaq, form a singular entity and buy BOTH the Twins AND the Wolves!! and just for local interest they bring in KG and Joe Mauer as minority owners of both teams as well. The NBA would buy off on this in a heartbeat!!! Cuban bring s the money, he makes any ownership group legit. (plus of course his history of being an owner). He could pay cash all by himself for either the Twins OR the Wolves with his $3.5B sale of majority stake in Mavs. with him selling he remaing 27% stake he could buy BOTH. With Shaq's net worth being around $500M he is no slouch either. Jeter comes in at about $200M net worth KG at about $120M and Joe Mauer at about $100M Both the NBA and MLB would love this. It bring sin local ties and heroes from both sports to be co owners, it brings in succesful previous ownership group in Cuban, and big star power from teh NBA in Shaq. Also it brings in 2 minority owners to both the MLB & NBA in Shaq (and KG). It helps build the hype between both sports and both Minnesota teams.
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Can the Twins Afford to Give Up on Alex Kirilloff?
Doc Munson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is probably about the most obvious issue the Twins have this off season. Even at just $1.8M this is a CLEAR NO!!! if his injury was an elbow, ankle, even shoulder I would say resign him as a longshot chance. But back injuries??? back injuries that take a player out for (almost) an entire season??? Back injuries just do not heal, they are with you for the duration of your career. And the comp should not be Kirilloff/Santana... it should be Kirilloff/Miranda or even Kirilloff/Julien.. Heck even Kirilloff/Severino, but nto Kirilloff/Santana -
How a bout a quick game of Rock Paper Scissors. But this time in the form of Players, Coaches, Front Office. With an historic collapse liek the Twins had there is never just 1 reason for it. There are always multiple reasons. So how about a game of PCF? Where would apply the primary Failures? Not I am not including injuries in the game because a 4th option just does not fit the game. Plus depending on the injury it could fall into any of the current 3. 1) Offense: Down the stretch our offense completely disappeared. Truth be told, we were never TRULY that good of an offense. During our stretches of being the "explosive offense" the Twins pretended to be tended to come against stretches against bad to mediocre teams, when we moved onto better teams we tended to revert back to an underperforming offense. but we are focusing here on the collapse portion of the season, and while were were a top 10 run scoring offense overall, during this stretch of futility we were only better than the White Sox and Angels. who COMBINED for 102 wins. Players: You could say the Twins were "tired" or injured, btu that is an excuse, Lewis MASSIVE slump to end the year you could tell he was just all upper arm swing which indicates tiredness, But overall just didnt produce. Correa and Buxton were missing for a portion of the collapse, and both it well when they returned but we still struggled. How much of a collective struggle is "team approach" I.E. coaching? and how much is on players not performing? There was just too much bad baserunning, bad situational hitting, and bad approaches down the stretch that must go on the players on the field. Coaches: This could just be philisophical differences, as opposed to perceived incompetence, but I HATE the amount of early pinch hitting Baldelli does. And while I have never coached above College ball (ok never above high school or even T ball... but the "never above College" still is technically accurate) I think you have to give your players the opportunities to hit same side pitching. take opportunities during the year with games not on the line. leave them in sometimes. Do SOMETHING to make yourself not so reliable on having to switch out hitters. I cna recal a MINIMUM of at least 5 games wher Baldelli pinch hit for LH hitters in the 5th inning against teams that had only ONE LH pitcher in the bullpen. this means if you left your LH in the game in the 5th inning, you know for a fact they will face oly RH hitters the rest of the game. If my memory is correct we ended losing them all. Not that we were guaranteed to win them, but that is not putting your team in the best position to win. Front Office: While our offense was not the big priority, it was clear it was not the overall strength they sold it to be going into the season. Everyone had to know Correa and Buxton would be missing time again. While you couldn't anticipate the early injury to Lewis, he had never put together a full healthy season. While we had an abundance of "potential" we went into season with unproven over a full season Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Kirilloff. Julien was coming off a good year but how many players repeat succesful rookie campaigns? Farmer is what he is (hint not a major league regular). Would Kepler be the 2nd half Kepler from last year? or what he had been for most of his career? oh yeah and Kepler, Wallner, Larnach all seem to have something I just cant put my finger on when it comes to building out a roster... Oh yeah ALL LH hitting OF. What is a coach supposed to do there? especially one who relies on analytics to mix and match? Margot was not a win, Santans though you have to give FO credit. But overall what else would a FO do here? you have to trust/hope in who you had. and where were realistic better options position wise? RESULT: ROCK... PAPER.. SCISORS... PLAYERS!! with coaching a close 2nd. and I could actually go coaching... after all can you blame players for simply playing to who the level they actually are? 2) PITCHING I am lumping the entirety of pitching into one group as starters and relievers impact each other. Players: Joe Ryan's injury here obviously had an impact. It does not seem to be an injury that coudl have been easily predicted (which would put on Front Office) or through the result of poor handling (which would have been put on coaching) so it comes in here. Ober was solid, Lopez was not spectacular but solid, and better down the stretch than early. Beyond those two in the roation, SWR performed admirably but tired down teh stretch, we relied on too many young starters who did not have the experience and who were approaching or exceeding historical innings maxes. the Bullpen had some inconsistency especially with Duran, most other failures were just relievers who were not very good overall. I cannot place the blame on young pitchers with no experience hitting their innigns maxes, or poor performances from players who simply arent that great, so hint... we may not have a winner here. Coaches: Now it gets juicier. AT least in my opinion. Personally I believe Baldelli did a HORRIBLE job of managing the staff. From pulling pitchers way too soon who were cruising, to using Duran in a number of situations where he had proven himself to struggle (yes any good pitcher shoudl be able to pitch in any situation, but if you as coach know they struggle more in certain situations you just do not put them in those situations). Weirdly the Twins are middle of the pack (14th) in innings pitched by pitchers, so does it just FEEL like he pulls pitchers early??? and maybe the horrible blow ups just shine more light than it deserves. but it FEELS like Baldelli horribly mismanaged this staff. so I am sticking with it. Front Office: SO going into the offseason we let Sonny Gray go, we let Maeda go. and we replaced with... ??? Again I wouldnt have anticipated Joe Ryan's injury but we went into the season with Ryan, Ober, Lopez as a top 3. with little other experience filling out the back end. So to START the season we had either inexperience or known injury history in the back end, SWR, PAddack, Disclafina, Varland. and ended up relying on inexpereinced youngsters hitting their innigns maxes in Fest and Matthews. SO we did not set up the rotation for success out the gate (which has an impact on the collapse we are specifically grading). At the deadline we did virtaully nothing and almost LITERALLY nothing. Total pitching moves by this Front Office: 6 total external moves. spending a total of $9M resulting in 4 DFA and 2 DNP. RESULT: ROCK... PAPER... SCISSORS... FRONT OFFICE!! (again with pitching a close second) To paraphrase a well used saying... "It takes teamwork to make the dream nightmare work" and if you average the scores... at least mine you get: Players: 1 offense and 3 pitching == 2 average Coaches 2 offense and 2 pitching = 2 average Front Office 3 offense and 1 pitching = 2 average. Overall though I would put the blame game as #1 Front Office #2 (close) coaching and #3 Players. Thoughts? and who comes out in your "Rock Paper Scissors"?
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Holy cow, How pathetic were the Twins Pitching additions this year by our FO? we all know it was pathetic, but did you know it was THIS pathetic? I didnt quite realize how poor the moves were... until I read the article by Do-Hyoung Park... Here is the sum total of our pitching additions this year... OFFSEASON MOVES: Anthony DeSclafina: $4M DNP Josh Staumant: $950K Released 8/2. Steven Okert:: $1M DFA 8/24 Jay Jackson $1.3M DFA 6/21 Justin Topa: $1.25M : INJURED ... ok so he actually was able to get into a whopping 2 games and 1 1.3 innings but not until 9/25 when we were essentially already toast, so basically another DNP TRADE DEADLINE MOVES: Trevor Richards: acquired 7/30 DFA 8/27. The Sum Total of pitching acquisitions: 6 Total Acquisitions $9M (roughyl) 4 DFA/Released 2 DNP (including Topa as DNP as he essetnialyl was) yes... THAT pathetic!!
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Bailey 7 IP 1 hit 0 walks 7K 83 pitches. Hey here is an idea, lets pull him after retiring 15 straight batters, absolutely rolling (throwing a potential Maddux) and lets replace him with Duran who struggle sin the 8th. Seriously?
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Barring a total collapse the Twins are positioned well to make the playoffs. Even with the injuries and lack of moves. While not looking ahead to next year, this year and our relative success has me thinking about the sustainability. So while not looking AHEAD to next year, I am looking AT next year. How or where we will be able to make some tweeks to keep up with the Royals. This was initially going to be a very hopeful task. Instead it was a bti sobering. :( WE have a strong potential core. Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Wallner, Larnach on the position end of things and Ryan Assuming healthy for next year, Ober and Lopez also the developing SWR on the mound and Jax, Duran, Alcala in the pen. We will be having some salaries coming off the books in Kepler $10M, Farmer $6M Margot and Disclafini mean another $8M I cant imagine Santana being back next year so his $5M+ should be moved. Assuming continued financial constraint, and assuming even being able to keep current salary (and there is risk of having to cut even more next year). At least this is a good $30M we can re-allocate to help improve the solid core. right? Well Maybe not so much. * Injury riddled Correa goes from $33 to $37M that takes us down to $26M avaiable to remain the same. Injury riddled Byron Buxton stay about the same at $15M guaranteed. so that is good. Pablo Lopez's salary jumps $13.5M next year so that gives leaves $12.5M Even Chris Paddack locks in a $5M raise bringing potential available FA funds to $7.5M. and this will go up to maybe just over $10M with Kirilloff and others not being brought back. SO with roughly $10M to spend, where will the needs be and how can we fill them? OF: OF should be relatively set, even with departure of Kepler. Wallner steps right in there. Buxton should be "primary CF" and we can continue with Castro/Martin as back up if needed. LF could still be Larnach as in house, with possibility of E Rod beign a mid season promotion. IF: IF has lots of uncertainty, but not necessarily WHo will be playing, but WHERE they will be playing. Will Lewis be 3B? 2B? Correa, assuming health is locked into SS (or could a mid/late career change to 3B be in the works to take ease off feet and slide Lewis/Lee to SS??) Speaking of Lee he will be in there somewhere, and Miranda can be 1B/3B. Not to mention the potential of Julien shoudl he get things back together. All that being said, no clue WHERE they will all be playing , but we definitely have the players to field an IF. C: assumng Jeffers returns, and we have Vazques still on the books for $10M that will be impossible to move. SO status quo there. That means position player wise, even if we WANTED to improve significantly... or even marginally, there really isn't much room. Starting Pitching: AS mentioned above assuming the return and health of Ryan, Ober, Lopez, SWR that is a quality top 4. Can Festa or Zebby prove capable of the #5 spot? Indications are there may not be a HUGE need for SIGNIFICANT upgrade to rotation. BULLPEN: if we keep a core of Jax, Alcala, Duran in place, even a respectable Cole Sands. and the Twins philosophy of "year to year" bullpen arms. where they believe Bullpen success is very inconsistent year over year, then we would be looking at not needing/spending much money there. with a potential solid rotation, then a Varland can move to BP. SO overall, while somewhat frustrating we have not added to a successful team. If you liek what you see this year, expect more of the same next year, if you DONT like what you see this year, expect more of the same next year. I say we follow the Wolves lead and RUN IT BACK!!! The onyl way to make significant changes is trying to trade Correa. That would be a cash dump move after continued years of missing big chunks of time and would get little in return unless we eat money which woudl go against our mantra. We have the organizational depth to handle moving correa. But if we did I would want to reinvest that $ into other quality players and we will just do it to save money. so lets run it back. The ONE move I would make... take our $10-12M (or so) we would have available. and make a run run at a 3 year guaranteed deal for Justin Verlander. a 3 year $36M deal. at his age and recent durability, I am not sure he gets more than that. Heck I would even go 3 year $45M to make it an even $15M. Verlander really wants 300 wins. It is a risk, but a risk worth taking. if he doesn't pitch, it is a 3 year hit. (heck we would have taken equal hits on the likes of Paddack), but if he is healthy in addition to being a still relatively quality arm, he would be a draw, especially as he approaches win #300. PLUS what a better mentor for the likes of Ober, Ryan, Festa, SWB, and other young pitchers. SO in long summation. For good or for bad, the Twins we have now will be the EXACT same team we have next year. Which may not be a bad thing.
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Twins could obviously use a weapon like Miller in the bullpen. His rookie scale contract and controllable years make him affordable (financially) for the Twins. An Elite bullpen arm is a luxury teams not in contention now or the foreseeable future do not really need. All of this adds up to a perfect match for the Twins to go big, but will they? The twins have the propsects to get it done: Twins have some redundancies in a couple areas. with overlapping timelines. First lets look forward a bit. CF: assuming Buxton can reman even relatively healthy over even the next 2 years, which should be the window for when Jenkins/Rodriguez should be ready to man CF. Then that makes one of them "expendable" along with Gabriel Gonzalez. RF: We have Kepler this year then he is off the books. Twins could trade him to move salary, btu that would be kinda cruel, but his salary clears next year. Could he return on a lower deal? possibly... if he wants to be a Twins lifer. But if we assume Twins dont trade Wallner at this deadline, then he could be heir apparent in RF. LF: larnach?? if not traded? Castro? Martin? someone else moving forward next year, possibly a Keaschall? Being potentially weak here should nto prevent us from trading from our young OF depth. INFIELD: Again assuming health a potential IF of Lewis 3B Correa SS Lee 2B Miranda 1B would be very solid over the next 6-10 years (minus Correa) That opens up trade potential for Julien, So with just a cursory review some potential trade assets the Twins have to send to a rebuilding As team are: Julien, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Larnach. You usually also nee to give up something to get something in the pitching department, so if we have to give up a high end pitcher with potential to get a PROVEN high end MLB arm then we have to. Zebby seems to be a fast riser, can we live without him? Charlee Soto? - we have given up recent highly drafting pitching in the past (Chase Petty). And how about making a bigger combo deal to help balance our lineup L/R. Say we give up Zebby, Soto, Julien, Rodriguez (could try it with Gonzalez first), and Larnach for Miller and bring back Rooker? Larnach decent, but not a corner stone player. the Rooker/Larnach swap is nto only an offensive upgrade but balances lineup, Rodriguez/Gonzalez is a top prospect but potentially blocked, Julien, at this point doesnt seem to be much room for going forward. Zebby & Soto both have potential, but how many young pitchers with potential actually live up to their potential? and we would be getting a proven arm, for this year and going forward. Would the Twins give that much up? and woul the As take that in return for BOTH Miller/Rooker? or coudl they get more in 2 separate trades?
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The Twins are putting Miranda on the IL. and calling up Diego Castillo to take his spot on teh 40 man. Since Diego is not currently on the 40 man roster there needs to be a corresponding move. What do the Twins do? the Twins COULD do something with a pitcher, but lets assume they stay position player... here are the positions players on the 40 man. and remember this is not just sending someone down, it is risk losing the player to another team. NA means there is no way that player gets designated. Wallner - NA Emmanuel Rodriguez - NA Austin Martin - NA Trevor Larnach - NA Max Kepler - NA Byron Buxton - NA Yunior Severino - NA Carlos Santana - NA Jose Miranda - NA Royce Lewis - NA Brooks Lee - NA Eduard Julien - NA Carlos Correa - NA Willi Castro - NA Ryan Jeffers - NA. That leaves the following... Vazquez - he is a "clubhouse guy" which means the Twins will keep him even though he is not performing well. even so the Twins would never eat that contract. if they wanted to get rid of him they would trade hm for anything they can get, a bag of used BP balls to move the contract before DFA him. Camargo - Could be an option, but I doubt it as there really isn't another "next in line catcher" for the Twins. and would you risk losing him for a short call up? Farmer - Already on the IL, but not really a candidate to move him to the 60 day. Might not be a bad move, but there would clearly be a grievance if this was done as his injury does not necessitate a 60 day stint. Twins have proven they want to keep him so wont be DFA'd Martin... could the oblique legitimately cause a 60 day IL transfer? I doubt it, That leaves just Kirilloff. He has already been o the IL since 6/13 so already 30 days in. with no real update on his condition, this is a CLEAR move. Plus the Twins are getting annoyed with him. Not annoyed enough to straight up DFA him but they would love to get ANY sort of trade value out of him. putting him on the 60 day IL woudl prevent the option of being able to trade him by the deadline. so that is not SUPER good. At this point though with 2 weeks left til the trade deadline, and Kirilloff nowhere near a return, it kind of makes that point moot. To me the Twins 2 options are... Option #1 move Kirilloff to the 60 day IL Option #2 just play short. Making the move retroactive to Friday and after todays game, we are on break, and would only miss the 2 Brewers games coming out of the break (assuming healthy). Option #3 is nto really an option if they are indeed looking at Diego Castillo.... why not bring up Julien? How would you clear a spot on the 40 man in this situation?
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I am not sure if there is anything serious with the Kepler injury, but now is the time to make a move. The Twins schedule has them playing NOBODY over .500 until after the Allstar break!! Now is the time to call up Wallner and Lee, let them continue their string recent offensive surges against AAAA competition to build confidence for the second half. DFA Farmer, there really is ZERO reason he is still on this club!! I have hear the veteran presence in clubhouse thing, but we still have Correa, we still have Santana, while he hasnt enjoyed great success we still have Buxton, and who cares about veteran presence with young leadership skills of Lewis. He needs to be gone. plug Brooks Lee into 2B. Use Castro as the super utility guy. While Kepler hasn't been HORRIBLE, he is obviously no longer a part of our long term future. Best case is he has a minor neck tweak that a IL stint coudl help, this would allow us to bring up Wallner for lightning in a bottle. If he continues hot streak then RF is his, if he flounders then we can go back to Kepler on his return. While Wallner is tearing it up, he is still striking out about 1/3 of his AB's. against AAA pitching, so if he comes up and continues with the high level K's (and dosent bring power along with it) then as mentioned after DL stint you go back to Kepler. But if ... IF... Wallner and Lee can bring their potential, and you put them in a lineup with Correa, Lewis, the resurgent Miranda (.284 avg & .844 over last 30 games) and the coming around Santana (.305 avg & .920 OPS over last 30 games) now we have a pretty potent lineup.
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Matt Wallner Is Finally Finding Himself at Triple-A
Doc Munson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wallner has ALWAYS been a notoriously horrible first half hitter, this is nothing new. The only question is if this trend continues (as it historically has) then who does he replace? Barring injury of course. Larnach is not a world beater but he has been solid. The Twins are not moving Kepler, Even if Buxton gets re-injured Wallner is not a CF. HE wont take any DH AB's from any RH hitters like Miranda. I dont want to trade him, but even if tis does prove to have staying power, what do you do with him? -
SO yet again Baldelli pinch hits for the lead off batter and the#2 batter in the 5th inning!!!???? you have your starting lineup for 4 out of 9 innings. you pinch hit a guy hitting under .200 and an OPS under .500 for your leadoff guy, and you pinch another guy under .200 BA and under .500 OPS for a guy hitting .354 &.928!! Thsi SHi.... This CRA.... This STUFF has to stop!!!!
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Twins poised for early big trade with the Marlins
Doc Munson commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM
Just posted a rant... I mean blog... on Baldelli pinch hitting so early in games. I CANT STAND that style of play!!! if I was Wallner Id ask for a trade.!! sure PH for me in teh 8th or 9th against a lefty when we need a hit, but in teh 6th inning!!??? and with 2 outs and nobody on where you need MULTIPLE hits to score (most likely) AND you give up a guaranteed AB against a righty in teh later innings???!!!

