You don't have to convince me, although there's no way we get both.  I'll "settle" for Luzardo, and even that will take a lot of farm capital.  Seems likely Miami will sell off plenty. 

That being said, don't expect much movement prior to mid summer.  Historically, teams just don't wheel and deal much the first several months at least.  

The way things look MIA might be selling off early. Most likely they'd like to trade off Arreaz especially if they are rebuilding. As of right now, they aren't looking to trade Alcantra and they are primarily looking for young players at the prime positions of SS & catcher for Lazardo. As much as I'd love to have Lazardo I wouldn't trade Lewis or Lee. If they'd take Gonzalez, De Andrade, Keaschall, Schobel, Winocur, and the like. I'd settle for Cabrera which would be less trade capital.

Luzardo - Brooks Lee, Bailey Ober, Emmanuel Rodriguez

I suspect you don't like that price tag much.

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Luzardo - Brooks Lee, Bailey Ober, Emmanuel Rodriguez

I suspect you don't like that price tag much.

Young, cheap, quality SP are hard to come by in the trade market.  If the Marlins were willing to trade Luzardo, any prospect outside of the top 4 should be on the table.

Alcantara is a pipe dream.  The Twins are not going to acquire more salary.  Ownership has been abundantly clear that keeping salary down is their #1 priority this year, not winning, not the future.

Alcantara is at $17M next two years and $21M in ‘27 & risky health going forward. ……to me, the last thing ANY organization needs is to trade for a pitcher that’s out a year for an arm injury! Not happening on Twin’s end.

Luzardo would be a nice piece. In ‘24 - 179 innings & 3.58 ERA. 208 K’s.

Ober in ‘24 - 144 innings & 3.43 ERA …….threw about 165 including AAA innings.

I see no benefit in trading Ober along with prospects for Luzardo. Luzardo has better stuff and upside but in general, Ober is much more consistent. 

Some prospect combination outside of Lee & Jenkins could make sense.

I'd say that no team is selling in April, ever.

But Miami isn't like other organizations.

Was really disappointed that the FO failed to improve the rotation this winter. After watching the first six games not sure it would matter or if trading the top prospects for the Miami starter makes any sense. The Rocco approach is still in play, low scoring, tons of strikeouts, refusal to advance runners, PH'ing in early innings, no speed or attempts at stealing bases ... basically homerun or bust, and by bust I mean striking out. Just like last year the offense is brutal to watch. So does trading for another quality arm really change anything? Detroit and Cleveland appear to have passed the Twins in no time. 

1 hour ago, hitterscount said:

Was really disappointed that the FO failed to improve the rotation this winter. After watching the first six games not sure it would matter or if trading the top prospects for the Miami starter makes any sense. The Rocco approach is still in play, low scoring, tons of strikeouts, refusal to advance runners, PH'ing in early innings, no speed or attempts at stealing bases ... basically homerun or bust, and by bust I mean striking out. Just like last year the offense is brutal to watch. So does trading for another quality arm really change anything? Detroit and Cleveland appear to have passed the Twins in no time. 

And not too many noticed. The Twins may win the Central. But it's going to be a dog fight. Not the cakewalk that a lot of fans have voiced so loudly. Someone commented about "get back to me when the Tigers beat a good team"  Well today they beat the A's after a doubleheader vs the Mets and traveling for a day game. And exactly what GOOD team have the Twins beat? You cant control the schedule.

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Luzardo - Brooks Lee, Bailey Ober, Emmanuel Rodriguez

I suspect you don't like that price tag much.

Way too much. Don’t forget the Mahle trade.

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Alcantara is at $17M next two years and $21M in ‘27 & risky health going forward. ……to me, the last thing ANY organization needs is to trade for a pitcher that’s out a year for an arm injury! Not happening on Twin’s end.

Luzardo would be a nice piece. In ‘24 - 179 innings & 3.58 ERA. 208 K’s.

Ober in ‘24 - 144 innings & 3.43 ERA …….threw about 165 including AAA innings.

I see no benefit in trading Ober along with prospects for Luzardo. Luzardo has better stuff and upside but in general, Ober is much more consistent. 

Some prospect combination outside of Lee & Jenkins could make sense.

UM... trading for injured pitchers is EXACTLY the Twins MO.  HAHA

3 hours ago, hitterscount said:

Was really disappointed that the FO failed to improve the rotation this winter. After watching the first six games not sure it would matter or if trading the top prospects for the Miami starter makes any sense. The Rocco approach is still in play, low scoring, tons of strikeouts, refusal to advance runners, PH'ing in early innings, no speed or attempts at stealing bases ... basically homerun or bust, and by bust I mean striking out. Just like last year the offense is brutal to watch. So does trading for another quality arm really change anything? Detroit and Cleveland appear to have passed the Twins in no time. 

Just posted a rant... I mean blog... on Baldelli pinch hitting so early in games. I CANT STAND that style of play!!!  if I was Wallner Id ask for a trade.!!   sure PH for me in teh 8th or 9th against a lefty when we need a hit, but in teh 6th inning!!???  and with 2 outs and nobody on where you need MULTIPLE hits to score (most likely) AND you give up a guaranteed AB against a righty in teh later innings???!!!

Luzardo is an ERod+ Lee and another 2 in the 10 to 15 range, or Royce or Jenkins plus festa 

I have a hard time seeing the Twins trading Lee or Lewis in a package for Luzardo. Lee and Lewis are core type players. 

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

...I see no benefit in trading Ober along with prospects for Luzardo. Luzardo has better stuff and upside but in general, Ober is much more consistent.

Some prospect combination outside of Lee & Jenkins could make sense.

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

Way too much. Don’t forget the Mahle trade.

Baseballtradevalues.com
Luzardo = +62
Lee = +25, Ober = +23, Rodriguez = +20

Miami will absolutely demand a high value prospect or solid cost controlled pitcher back in the exchange. Twins' options are Varland or Ober. Or Joe Ryan would probably drop the 3rd prospect from Emmanuel Rodriguez to Gabriel Gonzalez, but again, I suspect the Twins would be loathe to part with fan favorite Ryan as part of the exchange.

Luzardo's xFIP matches his ERA and FIP. Ober's xFIP is dramatically higher suggesting he's just been lucky with his ERAs. Not sure if this year's 54.00 ERA start is reflective of that. In any case, outside a Twins fan's perspective, Ober is not near the same league as Luzardo (who has been as good or better than Pablo Lopez the past 2 seasons a24/a25).

If it were me...

Lewis and Jenkins are going nowhere. Period.

Luzardo can pry Lee away from me, barely.

I'm willing to go Lee, Gonzales, and either Festa or Ryan for Luzardo.  That's a huge price, but it's a huge target.  

I wouldn't trade any of our current rotation.   All 5 belong in our organization.  This trade would be about adding to the top and enhancing our bench depth.   

For anything other than the absolute gem that is Luzardo, Lee is also off limits.  

9 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Way too much. Don’t forget the Mahle trade.

Spencer Steer was ready to play baseball to start the season (left field), eh, Wallner?

Alcantara is being paid $9.3M this year and $17.3M the next 2 years. His contract includes a $21M option in 2027. He is exactly who they would like to trade.

Someone with deep pockets may take Alcantara off their hands and gamble that he can return to pre 2023 Alcantara. If so, those are really low prices for what he can bring to the table. 

Luzardo costs about half what Arraez costs. Arraez & Alcantara are who they're looking to move, IMHO.

Can't imagine why they'd move Luzardo. Along with Arraez he's one of the reasons anybody goes to Marlin games. 

If I'm wrong please explain it to me. Thanks

As a Marlins fan, I don't want to trade either and with our injuries hard to say. I'd like to get an idea of what a 6 year arraez extension would cost. If we can't sign him long term by May he'll be traded.

Luzardo is top 15 pitcher so looking for a berrios type of trade and he has an extra season of control

15 hours ago, Doc Munson said:

Just posted a rant... I mean blog... on Baldelli pinch hitting so early in games. I CANT STAND that style of play!!!  if I was Wallner Id ask for a trade.!!   sure PH for me in teh 8th or 9th against a lefty when we need a hit, but in teh 6th inning!!???  and with 2 outs and nobody on where you need MULTIPLE hits to score (most likely) AND you give up a guaranteed AB against a righty in teh later innings???!!!

If his strikeout rate wasn’t already at about 65% - his Spring wasn’t disastrous - then he’d get more consideration. Some minimum level of performance v. RH pitching may lead to some opportunities v. LH pitching but sending a guy up with a 80% chance of a K doesn’t make good sense.

2 hours ago, Ryan_K said:

As a Marlins fan, I don't want to trade either and with our injuries hard to say. I'd like to get an idea of what a 6 year arraez extension would cost. If we can't sign him long term by May he'll be traded.

Luzardo is top 15 pitcher so looking for a berrios type of trade and he has an extra season of control

Luzardo is definitely a step above Berrios in terms of results. Berrios was an awesome workhorse (still is), but he's a #3 guy (bordering #2). Luzardo's a potential ace and his trade value on Baseballtradevalues reflects that to an extent, but even that value is probably much lower than what a team would pay. I'd say on the open market, Luzardo will project at 20pts higher than his listed value. That's why I tossed Ober in as a likely ask from the Marlins. Solid pitcher. Tons of control left, and he'll stay cheap due to the Twins misusing him by burying him in the depth charts at every opportunity. In the meantime, Brooks Lee gets the Marlins a highly hyped middle infielder prospect near MLB ready as he's going to get, and a potential starting MLB CF by the end of the year. Lots of control. Minimal costs, not a huge loss in terms of the rotation.

TD waxes poetically about Pablo Lopez every time his name is mentioned, but Luzardo is better than Lopez in terms of results the past 2 years. The durability concerns are all that's holding him back. 

Again, this is all hypothetical because I don't think the Twins would make the deal, and I also don't think Falvey should make this type of deal if he wants to be employed next year.