I think they will try to bring Santana back. Probably in the 5 mil range should do it.

I assume they will try to bring santana and kepler back maybe like 2 minor leaugers and that will probably be it.

Royals will not contend next year. Lugo and to an extent Wacha are fool's gold. There's not much in the minors and Perez is going to eventually lose out to Father Time. Even with Witt and Pasquatini, unless they become exorbitant spenders, the Royals look like a .500 team. 

Cleveland will shed payroll. Naylor and/or Clase will be moved instead of getting the hefty arbitration raises.

If the baseball gods simply stop frowning down on the Twins and give Correa and Lewis 135 games and keep the starting pitchers healthy, 2025 could be special.

14 hours ago, C-Gangster said:

I assume they will try to bring santana and kepler back maybe like 2 minor leaugers and that will probably be it.

Some of us would like Kepler back but there is no way Max returns in 2025. He is ready to move forward in his career and as a FA it will be his choice. I have been a Max Kepler fan since he came aboard. I wish him well.

Thanks for the look at 2025 and beyond. I don't see major changes, just some movement around the edges. This front office regards depth and utility highly. I think that puts Willi Castro in a Twins uni in 2025 with a much higher arb number, Willi wasn't mentioned in this post and he will cost some real money.

Also not mentioned was Louie Varland. He could be a big addition to the 'pen if the team is satisfied with López, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews and Morris as the starters for the season. 

I don't expect the Twins to part ways with Kirilloff this off season because his value is at an all-time low. The rebounds of Larnach and Miranda should be a lesson in patience with guys with upside. I think Rodriguez is in line for a mid-season promotion adding another lefty outfield bat (with the ability to play center field).

Alcalá, Jax and Durán will be the back end of the BP. Sands will be back to see if this year was an outlier (same could be said for Alcalá). I suppose they will hope for some innings from Topa and try to piece together the rest. Maybe Caleb Thielbar comes back on a make-good free agent contract. There is a dearth of left handed pitchers for the Twins, both rotation and bullpen. 

I don't see the Twins being players for any eight figure free agents. I am hoping they don't trade or non-tender players solely to cut payroll. 

You want to sign Verlander to a 3 year deal at 12 a year?  He is 41 now, will be 42 all of next season.  Meaning he will be 44 when the contract is up.  His FIP this year is nearly 5. I would be all for a 1 year deal, but he is making 43 mil this year.  I doubt he takes a big cut to come to us.  I think he would take a cut to stay in Houston, but not come here.  So either a larger pay for one year, or most likely paying dead money for at least 1 year if not 2 when we will need to increase pay to guys like Ryan or Ober in rotation in arb years.  Not to mention all the position players that will be in arb years coming up. 

At least the writer understands that money free one year does not mean you can simply sign a guy for a single season.  However, Verlander would be the type that might only get a 1 year deal maybe a 1 year with vesting option kind of thing, but it will be at more money per year most likely. 

I personally think he is only good for more of back end of rotation now, just because he is getting old and his numbers are reflecting that. 

I think we are seeing this year's roster already this year. It will be the same players with the possibility of one new, cheap bat or one, new cheap reliever. Here is the 2025 roster that I see:

OF - Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Martin (no Margot or Kepler)

IF - Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Lee, Julien (no Farmer or Santana)

UTL - Castro  

C - Jeffers, Vasquez

SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, 1 of Paddack, Festa, Matthews, Varland - the 3 who don't make it are the Saints' top 3 starters. No permanent move to the BP yet for Varland. He gets one more shot to show he can be a MLB starter.

BP - Jax, Duran, Sands, Alcala, Henriquez, Stewart, 2 of Funderburk, Thielbar, Winder, Blewett. Likely to be one added to this group as a FA on a minor league contract. The rest are in AAA.   

I see room for one more position player and maybe a reliever. The position player will either be Kirilloff (spot now that Santana is gone), a multi position guy like Helman, or a veteran RH bat that can play 1B and OF.  The reliever will be an opportunity thing. IF there is an opportunity through a minor league contract signing or cheap vet we take it, otherwise we run back the same group.

I think this is going to be a boring off season. The FO has spent this year setting up next year and we are there. Could be a fun team. 

Did I miss the increase in salary due to arbitration in there? 

I piss people off every time I say this, but we don't have the salary to afford 37 million going to one player, especially when we have young players like Lee/Lewis to step in. 

You have to analyze it in terms of how much better Correa is, to say, a young developing Lee. Then compare that to what an extra 37 million is payroll would mean to the team.

But it doesn't matter because Correa isn't going anywhere so let's just hope he can stay healthy and hope he performs like he did earlier this year. 

Will be interesting to see how many dislikes I get .. A bunch I'm sure

58 minutes ago, saviking said:

Did I miss the increase in salary due to arbitration in there? 

I piss people off every time I say this, but we don't have the salary to afford 37 million going to one player, especially when we have young players like Lee/Lewis to step in. 

You have to analyze it in terms of how much better Correa is, to say, a young developing Lee. Then compare that to what an extra 37 million is payroll would mean to the team.

But it doesn't matter because Correa isn't going anywhere so let's just hope he can stay healthy and hope he performs like he did earlier this year. 

Will be interesting to see how many dislikes I get .. A bunch I'm sure

It doesn't make any difference. Correa has a NTC. Ok, there have been examples of players who had a NTC but accepted a trade to a team and received some additional benefits. Who has ever had 4/$128 M contract that was traded? What team would entertain trading for Correa given the medical information and the contract? 

Nobody will give you a thumb down or dislike because your suggestion/thought is irrelevant. The Twins determined that Correa was worth a large contract and everyone signed. It doesn't matter. It is in the past. Reality is that Carlos Correa has a contract and the Twins hope for the best. When Correa is healthy, which is a shaky thing, he is a fine shortstop and decent hitter. You wrote that in your second to last thought too. We all need to just forget the contract and enjoy whatever contributions come our way when Correa plays.

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Thanks for the look at 2025 and beyond. I don't see major changes, just some movement around the edges. This front office regards depth and utility highly. I think that puts Willi Castro in a Twins uni in 2025 with a much higher arb number, Willi wasn't mentioned in this post and he will cost some real money.

Also not mentioned was Louie Varland. He could be a big addition to the 'pen if the team is satisfied with López, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews and Morris as the starters for the season. 

I don't expect the Twins to part ways with Kirilloff this off season because his value is at an all-time low. The rebounds of Larnach and Miranda should be a lesson in patience with guys with upside. I think Rodriguez is in line for a mid-season promotion adding another lefty outfield bat (with the ability to play center field).

Alcalá, Jax and Durán will be the back end of the BP. Sands will be back to see if this year was an outlier (same could be said for Alcalá). I suppose they will hope for some innings from Topa and try to piece together the rest. Maybe Caleb Thielbar comes back on a make-good free agent contract. There is a dearth of left handed pitchers for the Twins, both rotation and bullpen. 

I don't see the Twins being players for any eight figure free agents. I am hoping they don't trade or non-tender players solely to cut payroll. 

Castro will get maybe $6M as a guess….. They need to get real value from Paddack or they should trade him. If Kirilloff seems healthy, he had a 2023 that lines up better than Larnach’s 2024………Kirilloff is worth running back and if he doesn’t have any value we can just release him at some point if that’s last result……he won’t cost much going forward in ‘25. Jax may be arbitration eligible? Ober & Ryan getting close as well?

With Ryan presumed back - Matthews is the 6th starter on paper. That’s with SWR & Festa in the top 5 rotation.

Paddack & Varland to the Pen in ‘25 with Alcala - Sands - Henriquez - Jax - Duran……maybe Funderburk?

Lefty reliever or two could be the focus with our available $5 - $10M??

Will really miss some of the timely hitting and 100% of the defense that Santana has provided in ‘24 - he’s been great on the dirt! Don’t see him keeping Miranda off of 1B going forward though.

Ryan, Ober, Durán and Jax will all be arbitration eligible in 2025. Among the position players, Castro, Larnach, Lewis and Jeffers will be up for arbitration. That is eight big raises for sure.

I appreciate your brave attempt to look into any future for the Twins.  Your analysis of the core strengths and starting pitching is spot on.  where I do differ from your thinking is regarding additions and subtractions to the roster.

Santana has been a clutch and steady contribution this season.  He provides the quiet veteran leadership this team needs.  If the Twins choose to let him go because of his age it will be a big mistake.   

As far as potential additions...  First off I embrace the sell high and buy low approach.  Verlander will not come for a low price.  Twins should move one of the younger core players who can bring back quality pitching.  Lee or Larnach are good options I think.

17 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Ryan, Ober, Durán and Jax will all be arbitration eligible in 2025. Among the position players, Castro, Larnach, Lewis and Jeffers will be up for arbitration. That is eight big raises for sure.

...And this is why resigning Santana, Kepler, a new starter or pricey bullpen help is nearly an impossibility under the current regime's budget. 

We can wish for a trading partner to relieve the Twins of Paddack's or Vazquez's salary, but I doubt the Twins find one.  Maybe someone from the arbitration group above gets traded to save $'s as they all have value and project to earn their raises, but it hurts to trade established players who are entering their most productive years unless you get significant value in return.

On paper next year is a "go for it" year.  I hope the FO can find a way to fill a couple of holes without breaking their very limited budget.  It's a tough task.

5 hours ago, Road trip said:

...And this is why resigning Santana, Kepler, a new starter or pricey bullpen help is nearly an impossibility under the current regime's budget. 

We can wish for a trading partner to relieve the Twins of Paddack's or Vazquez's salary, but I doubt the Twins find one.  Maybe someone from the arbitration group above gets traded to save $'s as they all have value and project to earn their raises, but it hurts to trade established players who are entering their most productive years unless you get significant value in return.

On paper next year is a "go for it" year.  I hope the FO can find a way to fill a couple of holes without breaking their very limited budget.  It's a tough task.

On paper...the same could have been said of this year.  I believe Twins window of opportunity to be serious playoff/WS contender is a few seasons away...if at all. The AL Central is going to continue to be getting better so the Twins have that future to deal with first.  As long as the Twins success on offense is determined by the long ball they will struggle to compete.  

Good pitching defeats good hitting the majority of times...that is further in evidence in the playoffs.  One way to stay competitive on offense is to put the ball in play and put pressure on the defense to make a play.  The Twins are poor at this aspect of an offense strategy... poor base stealing/running, poor bat to ball adjustments, poor situational hitting.  

This version of the Twins is not the Bomba Squad.  That team was an outlier.  Wallner, Larnach, and Julien need to show they can adjust to certain situations and become hitters as opposed to swingers.

From reading the opinions here, if the Twins do not make the Postseason this year, it will be a long wait before they do.☠️

On 9/4/2024 at 4:54 PM, mrcharlie said:

 The AL Central is going to continue to be getting better so the Twins have that future to deal with first.  As long as the Twins success on offense is determined by the long ball they will struggle to compete.  

 

I guess I disagree with the first sentence I quoted, but agree with the 2nd.

AL Central looks like it will have 3 playoff teams this year.  That is unprecedented, and likely won't happen often.

Cleveland remains in extreme financial cost-cutting mode.  Their ability to continually develop new players is impressive, but they may be at their ceiling as they simply refuse to spend, even more so than the Twins.  They will remain good, but it is hard to imagine them improving substantially.  It's more likely they are slightly worse next year.

KC will lose multiple pitchers to free agency.  Perez isn't getting any younger.  They probably the take a step back...I mean how much better can Bobby Witt Jr really get when he's playing like an MVP now and carrying the offense almost by himself?  Their front office is aggressive though so who knows.

The Tigers have Skubal and Greene, but not much else, and still have Javier Baez's albatross contract to carry.  

The White Sox will be better next year, only because they really can't be worse.

But to your other point, yes I agree.  The Twins offensive philosophy seems to be rooted in a 3 true outcomes era, and that era is passing.  They are striking out less this year, but their inability to manufacture a run here and there really hurts them in close games.

This seems like thinking that needs to done in the offseason.

The Twins have quite a few decent players coming back next year and will also have an opportunity for making trades. Expect a similar budget, which will once again lead the division.

As far as the AL Central goes, it will be better next year. Detroit has @$39M, Cleveland has @$45M, and Kansas City has @$75M committed to next year. If you have watched a dozen or so of their games you know that each of these three teams has some good players who are getting better. The AL Central has benefitted (not CLE) some from having CWS bungling along this year but these clubs have been competitive all year with young players.

We can make our proposals and silly guesses in November.

We are likely to become a younger team in ‘25 and that wont lend itself to running away with the central.  No way the Pohlads spend much more on player salary. We are forever stuck in moneyball. 

With any available funds the Twins will target a strong bench player who can play all over the IF and maybe the OF as an option.  They could also target a mid-priced middle reliever on a 1 year 3-5 million contract.  but definitely depth signings for sure.

Paddack will either be dealt or could be moved to the pen to be that reliever.  Henriquez and Varland could be the others and if Stewart comes back strong and we have Alcala, Sands, Jax, and Duran that gives us 7 relievers if we count on Paddack there.

Here is a thought.  The Twins could restructure Velazques contract.  He is a solid backup catcher.  at 35% of the time.  His defense is worth having around his offense less so, but he has been better.  could the Twins sign him to a 1- or 2-year extension but making the contract like a 2 year 8 million per year or 3 year 7 million a year.  we pay less up front but its more in line with his production and get a solid backup at C.  I think the only issue is that he is not worth 10 million.  6 or 7 million is closer.  but we would still have to pay market value for the extension years and spread out the overage for next year on top of that.  The next 2 season are his 34 and 35 age seasons so for 35 and 36 the number could be lower than what I have above.  If his defense is that good, I am open to a reworked extension.  

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

Here is a thought.  The Twins could restructure Velazques contract.  He is a solid backup catcher.  at 35% of the time.  His defense is worth having around his offense less so, but he has been better.  could the Twins sign him to a 1- or 2-year extension but making the contract like a 2 year 8 million per year or 3 year 7 million a year.  we pay less up front but its more in line with his production and get a solid backup at C.  I think the only issue is that he is not worth 10 million.  6 or 7 million is closer.  but we would still have to pay market value for the extension years and spread out the overage for next year on top of that.  The next 2 season are his 34 and 35 age seasons so for 35 and 36 the number could be lower than what I have above.  If his defense is that good, I am open to a reworked extension.  

Jeffers as the catcher, God forbid, unless they pick-another top like  pro to go with Vazquez.