The Breakout Isn't Coming for Carlos Correa

[Nick Nelson]

Fans have been anxiously awaiting a seemingly inevitable sustained breakout from the biggest signing in franchise history. It hasn't happened. Sadly, I've grown convinced it's not gonna happen.

Carlos Correa is what he is, for this year at least. If this is his new permanent reality, then the outlook for the Twins going forward is very grim.

Image courtesy of D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

As Carlos Correa stumbled out of the gates in Year 1 of his newly minted $200 million contract with the Minnesota Twins, most of us shrugged. Even as the troubles persisted into May and June, his eventual turnaround always felt like a matter of when, not if.

There were many factors fueling this level of faith. First and foremost, you have his talent level and track record. Correa has been a blatantly amazing ballplayer throughout his career. He's been one of the biggest stars in the game over the past decade – a consistent standout performer and occasional MVP contender with off-the-charts baseball IQ. He's had slumps, as any player does, and he's always come out of them.

Moreover, we witnessed his ability to overcome an early swoon just one year ago. Correa was unimpressive during his first few weeks as a Twin, posting a .243/.309/.324 slash line in April of 2022, but he busted out bigtime in the second half to finish with some of the better offensive numbers of his career.

It always felt like a matter of time. So it has been very easy to buy into the teasing glimpses of self-actualization we've seen from Correa over the course of the season. He's had some moments, to be sure.

There was the walk-off homer on June 14th against the Brewers, punctuated by a dramatic gesture toward an imaginary watch. "Finally," Correa seemed to signaling, "the wait is over."

 

Turns out, it wasn't. He followed that epic highlight-reel moment by slashing .217/.254/.383 for the rest of June, with five RBIs in 15 games. 

“It's a constant grind every at-bat where I've got to fight for hits, and I've got to fight to just feel sexy at the plate,” Correa said as his momentum failed to sustain. “But, you know, I feel like I'm not that far off right now.”

At the end of the month, the Twins held their infamous players-only meeting and it coincided with shifting Correa into the leadoff spot. Here, it looked for awhile like the shortstop was truly and finally starting to "feel sexy." 

He thrived during his first few weeks atop the order, slashing .339/.413/.482 in 14 games. The power was still alarmingly absent, but Correa was at least producing, and providing some value to the lineup. An article from Dan Hayes in The Athletic on July 19th, when his OPS had risen to a season-high .725, declared Correa "back on track thanks to a leadoff mentality."

“I’m just swinging," said Correa. "If it’s in the zone, I want to hit it, whatever pitch it is. Rocco putting me in the leadoff spot gave me a new perspective. Instead of trying to go deep on every pitch, it was put the barrel on the ball and let something happen. That’s been allowing me to get on base and allowing me to have better results. Credit to Rocco for putting me in that spot. It changed my mentality.”

As if right on cue, Correa went 0-for-5 in the very next game and is slashing .163/.236/.225 in 12 games since. All the positive progress built up during his modest hot streak was wiped away even more quickly. The 28-year-old returned to what now appears to be his gravitational norm. His limitations are outweighing his ability to adjust and excel.

 

We're 109 games into this 2023 season – about two-thirds of the way home – and Correa has been worth less than one Win Above Replacement, while earning a $36 million salary. He's on pace to finish with 1.3 fWAR, which is roughly equivalent to the number he posted in 2020, a 60-game season where he posted a 93 OPS+. The ugly overall offensive numbers actually understate how damaging Correa has been at the plate because he also has grounded into an MLB-leading 20 double plays.

Correa's running out of time to escape this dismal rut and there's increasingly little reason to think he will. Much like the team he's supposed to be leading, Correa has quickly erased every budding glimmer of momentum he's able to materialize by falling flat on his face. He can't turn to underlying indicators of better days ahead for comfort, and nor can we.

 

Correa can't hit fastballs; his wOBA against them is down more than 100 points from a year ago. That's just a core aspect of having any kind of success at the plate. His expected-outcome numbers don't paint a much more optimistic outlook than what we see in his sub-par on-field production. Compare the xwOBA, xAVG, and xSLG in the two pictures below contrasting Correa's 2022 and 2023 seasons. Note the uptick in chasing and whiffing, the decrease in barrels.

He's just not an effective hitter. The true breakout hasn't come, and I'm done pretending it's going to happen, or buying into these temporary deviations. The Twins probably need to give themselves a reality check as well. Their options are limited obviously but at the very least they can stop writing a guy with a sub-.300 OBP into the leadoff spot everyday. We can now safely say that experiment failed, just like every other half-measure this team has taken to address its dire deficiencies. 

I have no doubt that Correa is more frustrated and disappointed with his season than any fan, nor that he will fully commit himself to fixing his broken offensive game during the offseason. But that only goes so far. Attitude, effort and commitment have NEVER been the issue with Correa.

The issue is that he frankly looks like a player being suddenly ravaged by the effects of physical aging at 28, in his first of a six-year guaranteed contract. If that's the case, there are no real silver linings to be found.

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[Brandon]

The silver lining is Brooks Lee was promoted to AAA recently.

 I’m hoping Correa can go on a somewhat of a hot streak and raise his average into the .240 range.  At least his power numbers are still at normal levels.

Also hoping his numbers increase back to norms next year.  If plantar fasciitis is what is holding him back this year maybe he gets treatment over the offseason and is back to normal next season.  That’s all I got.

[chpettit19]

If this is him being "ravaged by the effects of physical aging" this org is in a terrible spot. Having your 2 franchise cornerstones both shy of 30 breaking down physically is a nightmare. If they think that's the situation they need to see if they can sneak their way out of some of the Correa deal by moving him. You can't have a broken down Correa and Buxton on your team. Simply can't do it. I'm not convinced this is Correa breaking down, and expect him to be back closer to normal next year, but if he's breaking down already this org is about to have nearly $50 million going to 2 bench players real soon.

[Possumlad]

I think it's a bit of an odd take. 

Correa's undoubtedly having a bad year, ranking 16th currently by WAR of only ~20 eligible shortstops.

But he's 28 years old and shouldn't be anywhere near past his prime. 

And he's had "off" seasons before - in 2018, he posted a 101 wRC+ & 3.4 WAR. In the shortened 2020 season, 94 wRC+. 

Those seasons were sandwiched between very good ones.

Last year he was a 4.4 WAR player with a 140 wRC+. He was similar for Houston the year before that.

I think it's reasonable to expect (not just hope) that he's somewhere between those extremes going forward. Or at least there's no reason not to expect that (other than frustration & recency bias). 

I don't have an analytical take on why; just that it would be extremely odd for a player of his caliber to fall off the way he has @ 28.

I'd expect him to be at least a well above-average starter at a premium position for the next few seasons. 

[RJA]

Amen. Not catching up with fastballs is the first sign of an aging bat. He has looked “old” at the plate all year. Plus, I think his obsession with analytics may be messing with his mind. Hopefully, he will adjust his approach, clear his mind in the off-season and get better, even if he can’t be what he once was. Boy, if this situation turns into one of those albatross contracts, the Twins are in big trouble. 

[Woof Bronzer]

If I recall correctly he was terrible in July/August last year when the Twins had a chance to pull away from Cleveland.  A great September doesn't mean much when the team is already out of it.  I think 22 was a down year for him and 23 is a further decline.  Not good.  

I have a sinking feeling the SF/NYM medical staffs saw this coming....

This will drive many folks crazy, but I think Carlos would benefit from a healthy dose of humility, and a refocus on being a productive baseball player rather than the team captain/assistant GM he seems to have anointed himself as. 

[Vanimal46]

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If this is him being "ravaged by the effects of physical aging" this org is in a terrible spot. Having your 2 franchise cornerstones both shy of 30 breaking down physically is a nightmare. If they think that's the situation they need to see if they can sneak their way out of some of the Correa deal by moving him. You can't have a broken down Correa and Buxton on your team. Simply can't do it. I'm not convinced this is Correa breaking down, and expect him to be back closer to normal next year, but if he's breaking down already this org is about to have nearly $50 million going to 2 bench players real soon.

Yeah, if Correa and Buxton are both broken down players, we’re about to enter times darker than the late 90s or the early 2010s. 

Part of me believes Correa got so discombobulated after the free agency he just experienced that this was going to be a rough year no matter where he signed. Getting 2 10+ year contracts only for the team to pull away at the last second has to affect a person mentally. 

[Greglw3]

I have to agree with you about the offensive part of the game and Polanco of Julien should probably bat leadoff. I have no insight aside from the plantar fasciitis but wonder if the defect to the right ankle area that the Giants and the Mets were so deeply concerned about is affecting him.

He’s chasing a lot, just showing no command of the strike zone. Such a contrast to Julien.

The only thing I’d submit is that Correa’s defense has been superb, back to platinum glove level (I don’t give any credence to the new wave defensive metrics, I trust my observation of the game and the observations of baseball people that I trust).

I think Correa has saved numerous base hits with his defense but then basically completely offset that value with he meager offense.

Maybe in the playoffs behind a Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray it will swing to his defense doing far more good than his offense bad.

[LastOnePicked]

I've seen very few games this year, but when I have watched Correa at the plate, I get this funny sensation like I'm watching a kid try to swing with a bat that is way too big for him. That's not to say he has the wrong bat size, but just that he looks like he's not planted well, and/or that he has a very late swing through the strike zone.

It's possible that he rebounds, but rebounding probably means he's a .260 hitter with 15-20 homers and 50+ RBI moving forward. In short, if I were a GM who passed on him this offseason, I'd be awfully pleased with my decision.

[chpettit19]

16 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

If I recall correctly he was terrible in July/August last year when the Twins had a chance to pull away from Cleveland.  A great September doesn't mean much when the team is already out of it.  I think 22 was a down year for him and 23 is a further decline.  Not good.  

I have a sinking feeling the SF/NYM medical staffs saw this coming....

This will drive many folks crazy, but I think Carlos would benefit from a healthy dose of humility, and a refocus on being a productive baseball player rather than the team captain/assistant GM he seems to have anointed himself as. 

April- .633 OPS
May- .884
June- 1.012
July- .614
August- .776
September- 1.001

July was certainly bad, but August was solidly above average. That doesn't look like decline to me. Especially when you consider his overall OPS+ was the 2nd best of his career.

[LastOnePicked]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You can't have a broken down Correa and Buxton on your team. Simply can't do it.

You can, but it just means you're going to be the underperforming Angels at best or a rebuilding Tigers team at worst. Most likely scenario from my perspective is that Buxton retires by 2025 and Correa requests a trade when the rebuild years are in full swing. 

[Jocko87]

26 minutes ago, RJA said:

Amen. Not catching up with fastballs is the first sign of an aging bat. He has looked “old” at the plate all year. Plus, I think his obsession with analytics may be messing with his mind. Hopefully, he will adjust his approach, clear his mind in the off-season and get better, even if he can’t be what he once was. Boy, if this situation turns into one of those albatross contracts, the Twins are in big trouble. 

I don’t see the physical part but I certainly see information messing with with his mind. Thinking to much will make you late on a fastball too.  

Frankly, I’m pretty much done looking at individual hitters problems to diagnose.  Far to many hitters with very similar issues points to a more systematic failure mode.  Correa looks healthy, we haven’t heard squat about plantar fasciitis or anything else in weeks. Other than Buxton everyone else that is struggling in a similar manner is mainly healthy as well.  

I know I catch a ration every time I say coaching matters but I’m going to say it again.  No, a great coach can’t make a superstar out of an ordinary player but a bad coach certainly can turn a superstar into a normie.  Especially with something like hitting, where you can’t be thinking and processing in the millisecond you have to make a move.  I’m firmly convinced that there is something in the hitting room, wether it’s Popkins, a scout/analyst or what that is a very large net negative. Not being in the room I can only hypothesize but it looks to me like the coaching staff doesn’t really have an individual that isn’t stuck in a spreadsheet. Old school scouting and adjustments still matter but they don’t come from computers.

I am expecting an overhaul of the hitting room this offseason much like the training room last offseason. Now that I think about it, last years injury bug is this year’s hitting room.

[LastOnePicked]

26 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

This will drive many folks crazy, but I think Carlos would benefit from a healthy dose of humility, and a refocus on being a productive baseball player rather than the team captain/assistant GM he seems to have anointed himself as. 

He seems to have a very good sense of character, but I agree. This notion that he should be leading this team is solely based on prior reputation, not actual performance here. You can't lead win the clubhouse if you can't excel during the games. He's a hired gun that can't fire.

He needs to step back. His errant and hasty praise of Popkins may be one of the reasons the FO has stuck with that failed experiment this long. Problem is, no one else here can yet step forward. There are no other leaders on this club.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

You can, but it just means you're going to be the underperforming Angels at best or a rebuilding Tigers team at worst. Most likely scenario from my perspective is that Buxton retires by 2025 and Correa requests a trade when the rebuild years are in full swing. 

If they're going full rebuild that means Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Lee, Wallner, Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Jax, and Duran couldn't form a new core. That'd be quite the disaster.

[terrydactyls]

I can't imagine that Correa's "bad" ankle is causing his poor performance in the batter's box.  If his ankle was bothering him, there's no possible way he could play shortstop the way he does.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I don’t see the physical part but I certainly see information messing with with his mind. Thinking to much will make you late on a fastball too.  

Frankly, I’m pretty much done looking at individual hitters problems to diagnose.  Far to many hitters with very similar issues points to a more systematic failure mode.  Correa looks healthy, we haven’t heard squat about plantar fasciitis or anything else in weeks. Other than Buxton everyone else that is struggling in a similar manner is mainly healthy as well.  

I know I catch a ration every time I say coaching matters but I’m going to say it again.  No, a great coach can’t make a superstar out of an ordinary player but a bad coach certainly can turn a superstar into a normie.  Especially with something like hitting, where you can’t be thinking and processing in the millisecond you have to make a move.  I’m firmly convinced that there is something in the hitting room, wether it’s Popkins, a scout/analyst or what that is a very large net negative. Not being in the room I can only hypothesize but it looks to me like the coaching staff doesn’t really have an individual that isn’t stuck in a spreadsheet. Old school scouting and adjustments still matter but they don’t come from computers.

I am expecting an overhaul of the hitting room this offseason much like the training room last offseason. Now that I think about it, last years injury bug is this year’s hitting room.

He had the same coaches last year and put up his second best season ever. He's been an information junky for years. Carlos is not a good example of the point you're trying to prove.

[2wins87]

I have to agree that I really can't see him turning a corner this year.

Given his overall track record, it seems hard to believe that he can't at least rebound a somewhat in the coming years, but I haven't seen any signs yet this year.  The defense is good enough that I don't think we should be mashing the sell button like Jim Cramer already, but it's certainly been worrying.

[AlGoreRythm]

40 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

If I recall correctly he was terrible in July/August last year when the Twins had a chance to pull away from Cleveland.  A great September doesn't mean much when the team is already out of it.  I think 22 was a down year for him and 23 is a further decline.  Not good.  

I have a sinking feeling the SF/NYM medical staffs saw this coming....

This will drive many folks crazy, but I think Carlos would benefit from a healthy dose of humility, and a refocus on being a productive baseball player rather than the team captain/assistant GM he seems to have anointed himself as. 

I'd like you to provide an example of his lack of humility.

From what I've seen of him this year, he's been extremely humble and had taken responsibility for his lack of offensive production publicly.

What more are you expecting from him in the way of humility?

As to the idea that a hot September last year is meaningless, I think you're completely wrong. One player can't make or break a baseball team if the rest of the team doesn't perform. Look at the Angels.

Had the rest of the team performed in September, they'd have won the division and we'd have praised Correa for leading them to it with his strong September play, performing exactly when the team needed it.

Instead you're saddling Correa with the idea that his good play didn't matter because of the rest of the team's inability to perform.

Neither of these reads is correct in my opinion. Blaming or praising a single player for team success is silly at best, foolish at worst.

[big dog]

This is why I never shop at “the Dior store”. Products are good enough to use but nowhere near worth what they cost. 

[#3Killer]

Didn’t Correa take Miranda under his wing this winter and attend sessions with a hitting guru out in the west coast somewhere?? Looks like the guru did a hell of a job- two guys we were counting on are way underperforming.

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He had the same coaches last year and put up his second best season ever. He's been an information junky for years. Carlos is not a good example of the point you're trying to prove.

Don’t let your general disdain for coaching get in the way of the point I’m actually making.  Things change year over year and I specifically mentioned coaches or. 

Can’t imagine the fun opposing pitching coaches are having with Popkins now that they know his playlist.  My guess is he hasn’t been able to adjust and he’s putting his hitters behind the 8 ball to start the at bat. 

[NotAboutWinning]

1 minute ago, Jocko87 said:

Don’t let your general disdain for coaching get in the way of the point I’m actually making.  Things change year over year and I specifically mentioned coaches or. 

Can’t imagine the fun opposing pitching coaches are having with Popkins now that they know his playlist.  My guess is he hasn’t been able to adjust and he’s putting his hitters behind the 8 ball to start the at bat. 

This seems to be an entire organization that can’t adjust… Hitters, coaches, manager & FO. This year’s rule changes benefited the organizations that are able to adjust... Baltimore, Miami, DBacks, Reds. Since organizations are led from the top, I think the FO has to go. Anything farther down the chain will not change anything.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Don’t let your general disdain for coaching get in the way of the point I’m actually making.  Things change year over year and I specifically mentioned coaches or. 

Can’t imagine the fun opposing pitching coaches are having with Popkins now that they know his playlist.  My guess is he hasn’t been able to adjust and he’s putting his hitters behind the 8 ball to start the at bat. 

Don't let your general love of coaching get in the way of the facts. Carlos Correa isn't some rookie. He's not new to obsessing over data. He's fully capable of adjusting before August if it's the info from his coach that's causing problems. My point was Correa is a bad example of your point. 

Is Jeffers ignoring Popkins or why is he having a career year?

[BH67]

The biggest problem I have with this site is not the use of SABR-metrics to sound the alarm, which in Correa's case has significant justification.

Instead, it's the incessant use of SABR-metrics to cast a dark cloud over everything the Twins are doing.

Perhaps Falvine, Baldelli and the Pohlads deserve it. Also, Minnesota sports fans expect worst-case scenarios because the history often has been ugly.

There's a difference, however, between saying "the sky is falling" and the equivalent of a frog dissection that too often is directed to stoke such emotions.

[tony&rodney]

Runners on first and second with no outs and Correa coming to the plate ..... bunt them over. Same for Buxton. The Twins need to address their near total futility to strike out or hit into double plays when runners are on base. Try something different because the talent will always allow them to switch back and still be a .500 team.

Correa still plays a good shortstop (imho), but it cannot hurt to drop him down to sixth or seventh in the lineup. The Twins are in first place in the AL Central so we should expect to see the same batting orders and platooning as the last few months. Change comes slowly for the Twins.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Lee, Wallner, Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Jax, and Duran couldn't form a new core. That'd be quite the disaster.

Welcome to the trenches, friend.

I mean, come on, I'm pessimistic. Probably too pessimistic. But I have loved/followed the Twins since 1986, and I don't see any kind of title run from this organization in any kind of near future. The players you mention above will likely need to be traded. E-Rod probably represents the type/age of player who could be a part of the rebuilt, potentially-contending Twins. I think it's going to take an Orioles-style overhaul here.

But I'm threatening to derail this thread. Stuff to debate at a later time and in another thread. And there's still time for this year's club to make me look foolish.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Welcome to the trenches, friend.

I mean, come on, I'm pessimistic. Probably too pessimistic. But I have loved/followed the Twins since 1986, and I don't see any kind of title run from this organization in any kind of near future. The players you mention above will likely need to be traded. E-Rod probably represents the type/age of player who could be a part of the rebuilt, potentially-contending Twins. I think it's going to take an Orioles-style overhaul here.

But I'm threatening to derail this thread. Stuff to debate at a later time and in another thread. And there's still time for this year's club to make me look foolish.

Agreed we shouldn't derail the thread. I'll just say I really hope you aren't right.

[Jocko87]

47 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Don't let your general love of coaching get in the way of the facts. Carlos Correa isn't some rookie. He's not new to obsessing over data. He's fully capable of adjusting before August if it's the info from his coach that's causing problems. My point was Correa is a bad example of your point. 

Is Jeffers ignoring Popkins or why is he having a career year?

I had already considered all those facts.  One guy having his best year ever is the outlier.  If you give someone obsessed with data the wrong data it would also explain our situation. 

I’ve got an outlier too. I wonder how Gary Sanchez felt about the coaching last year?  Sure was washed as a Twin, if I remember correctly. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

I had already considered all those facts.  One guy having his best year ever is the outlier.  If you give someone obsessed with data the wrong data it would also explain our situation. 

I’ve got an outlier too. I wonder how Gary Sanchez felt about the coaching last year?  Sure was washed as a Twin, if I remember correctly. 

But Correa is the one asking for specific data. He knows what numbers he wants. Popkins doesn't make up the numbers. Correa has built a routine and the numbers he wants over years playing with an even more analytically driven team than the Twins. He tells the coaches what numbers he wants, they don't tell him what numbers he should look at.

Almost the entire team is performing to recent career norms. They're simply not very good career norms. Gallo, Farmer, Solano, Kepler (is Popkins now a genius since Kepler is performing great recently?), Castro, Larnach, MAT all within normal range of recent numbers. Jeffers having career year. Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Lewis all performing very well as rookies. Correa, Buxton, and Vazquez only 3 guys really having bad years. Just happen to be the 2 most important players are in that group. 3 out of 15 guys sure doesn't scream "coaching is killing this team!" to me.

Was apparently washed with the Giants and Mets orgs this year, too, I guess. And the Yankees for multiple years prior. Dang, crazy that the Padres are struggling so much with such a brilliant hitting coach. Turned back the clock on Sanchez while also turning Kim into a star. But destroyed Machado and Bogaerts.

We've veered off path a little for the thread topic, though. I don't think Correa breaks out this year, but I don't think coaching has doomed him, nor do I think he's declined overall for his career. I expect him back much closer to a 130 OPS+ next year. With the same coaches or not. But reasonable minds can disagree.

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If this is him being "ravaged by the effects of physical aging" this org is in a terrible spot. Having your 2 franchise cornerstones both shy of 30 breaking down physically is a nightmare. If they think that's the situation they need to see if they can sneak their way out of some of the Correa deal by moving him. You can't have a broken down Correa and Buxton on your team. Simply can't do it. I'm not convinced this is Correa breaking down, and expect him to be back closer to normal next year, but if he's breaking down already this org is about to have nearly $50 million going to 2 bench players real soon.

I am terribly afraid Lewis will be our next broken down once hopeful player.