Did the Twins Lose the Jose Berrios Trade

[Ted Schwerzler]

The 2021 Minnesota Twins were not good, and because of that, they found themselves as sellers at the trade deadline. The biggest questions were what to do with Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios. They kept the former and got a haul for the latter. How does that trade look less than two years later?

 

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In looking to find their way forward from an organizational building capacity, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had to decide whether Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios would be franchise cornerstones. Buxton was someone they had previously negotiated with, and ultimately he landed a $100 million deal prior to the 2022 season. Berrios was an arm awaiting a payday, and the Twins front office decided it wasn’t going to come from them.

When the names came out after the Toronto Blue Jays acquired the Twins ace, comments across the industry highlight how well Minnesota had done. It wasn’t universally believed that a deal involving Berrios could land either Austin Martin or Simeon Woods Richardson. Instead, Minnesota’s front office found a way to land both of the coveted top-100 prospects.

Only Nate Pearson and Jordan Groshans were left from the top four prospects for Toronto, and the Twins netting that sort of firepower for a player that they were going to let walk 15 months later was nothing short of exceptional. The only unfortunate aspect of the deal is that neither player has made a real impact thus far.

Martin came to Minnesota a year after he was the fifth overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft out of Vanderbilt. He was a top-20 prospect across baseball going into 2021, and he flashed his abilities during the Futures Game. Posting an .807 OPS with a .424 OBP, there was a lot to be excited about surrounding his offensive profile.

Left relatively unchanged after joining Minnesota’s organization in 2021, things started to go awry last season. Martin was urged to change his approach and swing in an attempt to unlock some power. He had never shown that sort of ability in his game, and tapping into it clearly caused issues across the board. He finished with an ugly .685 OPS despite still posting a .368 OBP.

Fast-forward to this season and things couldn’t be foggier for Martin. He has played in rehab games this season as he works his way back from an elbow injury. He recently was activated by the St. Paul Saints, and the hope would be that he can avoid Tommy John surgery. He is now 24 years old, and no longer looks like an answer at shortstop, while having the most clear path as a utility player.

There is no denying that Martin can have significant value for Minnesota, but he is Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason, and surgery or not, the Twins will have a decision to make. He could certainly play the Willi Castro or Nick Gordon role a season from now, but the front office likely hoped for more when making him the centerpiece of a Berrios deal.

Helping to hedge their bet, Woods Richardson was seen as a candidate to be featured in a good rotation. He competed (in that he was on the roster) alongside Joe Ryan during the Olympics, and ultimately pitched just eight innings at Double-A during 2021.

Last season, Woods Richardson made his mark at both Double and Triple-A, posting a 2.77 ERA across 107 1/3 innings. He was every bit the star prospect Minnesota had hoped for. Despite being flipped by the Mets previously, it seemed that his third organization was going to be the one to benefit. At the end of the year, with Minnesota’s season in the tank, his first MLB start took place in the final weekend.

The train has fully derailed on Woods Richardson at St. Paul this season. He has made 11 starts and owns an ugly 7.47 ERA with declining strikeouts and increasing walks. He was lit up during a spot-start for the Twins, and his repertoire has never looked less belief-instilling. Still just 22 years old, he is incredibly young, but such a substantial step backwards is anything but ideal.

Although the Twins did exceptionally well when flipping Berrios as an asset, this is a reminder that prospect evaluations are increasingly difficult to pin down. We aren’t yet at a point where the return is a wash, but Martin being lost before getting started would be a substantial blow. Woods Richardson needs a sizable turnaround to avoid a future role in the bullpen, and Minnesota wants to capitalize much more than they have.

At the end of the day, the Twins were able to use Berrios dollars elsewhere, and they netted a massive prospect haul in the process. The dollars have made sense, but the prospects have proven less fruitful. No matter how big of a win at the time of a deal, how something plays out in the future is much less of a given.

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[Mike Sixel]

Kind of early to say. They won last year, lost this year. 

 

[pierre75275]

I think it's still too early to say one way or the other. Last year was a year Berrios would like to forget, and maybe this year is SWR turn to forget. And while Martin was not good the beginning of the year the last 6 weeks he was better, and then injured. 

I'm not saying Jordy Blaze is the answer to everything but so far his numbers are much better than last year.

One year can make a huge difference.

[TwinsDr2021]

as of 7/5/23, the Twins have lost the trade, Martin is getting old real fast and SWR is regressing.

Toronto has gotten 343 innings, he hasn't been great but this year has been good.

At the Time the trade looked crazy good and still has some time to look good, but I think most of that rests on the Shoulder of SWR, Martin turning into the Gordon/Castro role isn't enough.

 

[weitz41]

This is a tough trade to say anyone won or lost.

Berrios was terrible last season, started this one even worse than righted the ship for a bit but has been inconsistent since. The prospects the Twins got haven't been all that impressive for the most part either. Maybe the money not spent gives the Twins the edge?

Looks like a loose/loose today. Maybe leaning the Blue Jays way because they are getting MLB innings from their end. Some good ones and some bad ones. It might take another season to be settled.

[Nine of twelve]

I wish people would give up trying to judge trades too soon after they are made. (I didn't even bother to read this article.) For the umpteenth time, a trade can not be properly evaluated until the careers of the involved players have concluded. And if any of the involved players are included in other trades then it's necessary to wait for the careers of players involved in those trades to conclude. In some cases it can take decades to know. As an example, look at the Escobar/Duran trade. Escobar has had some very good years since we traded him, so based on performances up to now, the Twins clearly lost that trade. 10 years from now it would be judged an overwhelming win for the Twins if Duran has a long career as an elite reliever.

[Cory Engelhardt]

This article feels way too early to decide on. Funny that it was put out day(s) after Martin's first hit in AAA. 

[DocBauer]

Trying to help Martin gain some additional power was not the wrong thing to do. Every team does it for every single position player as more power/pop means more XB hits and keeps both the pitcher and defense honest.

To everyone's credit, all experimentation was dropped and Martin went back to what felt more natural. He finished strong, looked great in the AFL, and was in ST getting time pretty much day 1. And then he got hurt. Not his fault or the Twins.

Where the Twins did mess up, IMO, was leaving him at SS too long when absolutely nobody thought he could play it at the ML level. I don't buy the "keeping him in the dirt and the middle of the action" arguement. 3B and 2B get enough action that he could have just worked at being better at those 2 spots, as well as getting in to the OF earlier.

If his elbow holds up, he might be a part of 2024.

SWR I don't have a clue on. I wasn't crazy about him when the trade was made and couldn't understand the high rankings. Then he started to break out in 2022 and I climbed on the SWR wagon. Now, a season later, it doesn't  appear he's got anything to help. So I just don't have any answers other than he's young, and sometimes crap happens.

But just no way to judge this trade for at least another year, if not two or more. Berrios is pitching and the other, younger pair are in AAA. Gotta see what happens for a while before any rational judgment can be made.

[Dman]

I agree with others that it is far too early to tell what SWR or Martin might become but agree with the OP that in their current state things are concerning.  The emotional side of me says that if Martin is a Gordon\Castro type player that feels like a poor return to me.  In the draft thread no one wants Wilson at #5 and he is essentially Martin with the bat with maybe slightly slower wheels. So it sure doesn't feel like the future is bright there IMO.  Still the rational side says he has always been an elite contact hitter and he needs time to get back to who he is\was.  Gonna need more time to see where he is at and he far too talented to give up on this early.  

SWR never did develop the fastball as hoped and the secondary's are good but not elite.  It feels like he has toped out at AAA but again he is young.  Lot's of players have growing pain seasons so too early to give up on him as well.  He does look better as pen arm to me which wouldn't be the worst thing since Martin was the main piece in the trade.

Currently things don't look good for the Berrios trade but by as early as next year they could look great.  Just too early to tell but to the OP's point yes things don't look as good today as they did at the time of the trade.

[jorgenswest]

A similar article probably was written three years after the fact about 2018 Escobar trade. The top prospect acquired had an injury riddled 2021 AAA season with almost a walk an inning and a 5.06 ERA. It was easy to forget in the moment that it was a 23 year old kid that still had plenty of time to figure it out.
 

[gman]

Berrios wouldn't still be with the Twins, trade or no trade. He was going to sign somewhere else. I know that Martin is expected to see time at second base for St Paul, but Stevenson or not, I think Martin should be playing center field full time. I'd like to see Martin and Julian batting 1&2 for the Twins next year, if not September.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, gman said:

Berrios wouldn't still be with the Twins, trade or no trade. He was going to sign somewhere else. I know that Martin is expected to see time at second base for St Paul, but Stevenson or not, I think Martin should be playing center field full time. I'd like to see Martin and Julian batting 1&2 for the Twins next year, if not September.

I wonder if he isn't in CF because of his arm? That's my hope for the reason, anyway, because he isn't beating out Lee, Lewis, Julien or Polanco for playing time at 2B this year or next. 

[gman]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I wonder if he isn't in CF because of his arm? That's my hope for the reason, anyway, because he isn't beating out Lee, Lewis, Julien or Polanco for playing time at 2B this year or next. 

I thought about that, but hope not. I agree second base is booked.

[jccracraft]

Because he was a free agent after 2022, this is ultimately what the Twins gave up. Upside risk was worth 1+ seasons of Berrios.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards

2021	27	TOR	AL	5	4	.556	3.58	12	12	0	0	0	0	70.1	64	30	28	8	13	0	78	7	0	0	291	125	3.28	1.095	8.2	1.0	1.7	10.0	6.00
2022	28	TOR	AL	12	7	.632	5.23	32	32	0	0	0	0	172.0	199	103	100	29	45	0	149	11	0	3	753	72	4.55	1.419	10.4	1.5	2.4	7.8	3.31

[2wins87]

20 minutes ago, gman said:

Berrios wouldn't still be with the Twins, trade or no trade. He was going to sign somewhere else.

This is the most important point.  What Berrios is doing this year has no bearing on the trade.  The return that they got was for a season and a half, and you could throw in some value to the exclusive bargaining time that Jays used to sign him to an extension as well.  Berrios was mostly bad over that stretch, though they did sign him to extension that is looking fine this year.

As for the trade, the value doesn't need to be super great, but it's fair to say the return looks much less good now.  Austin Martin and SWR could not land a similar pitcher this year, so yeah they are losing so far.  Given their ages, the book is not yet written on the prospects though.  It's the bottom of the 5th inning; there is still time to pull out a win, though you might not want to bet on it.

If Berrios continues to pitch well for several more seasons, we can debate if they made a mistake refusing to meet Berrios's demands for an extension too.  They have managed to fill the rotation with several equally good and cheaper options this year, but those also came with some significant cost to prospect/major league talent. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, jccracraft said:

Because he was a free agent after 2022, this is ultimately what the Twins gave up. Upside risk was worth 1+ seasons of Berrios.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards

2021	27	TOR	AL	5	4	.556	3.58	12	12	0	0	0	0	70.1	64	30	28	8	13	0	78	7	0	0	291	125	3.28	1.095	8.2	1.0	1.7	10.0	6.00
2022	28	TOR	AL	12	7	.632	5.23	32	32	0	0	0	0	172.0	199	103	100	29	45	0	149	11	0	3	753	72	4.55	1.419	10.4	1.5	2.4	7.8	3.31

Going on this logic, it is almost impossible to lose a trade, when trading a free agent to be, even if you basically get nothing you can't lose because a 1/2 year or even 1 1/2 of the traded player will never look bad.  (maybe that is true)

IMO you have to take into consideration as part of the trade review if the team signs the player to an extension.

[dex8425]

This is why you trade prospects. They are just that, prospects. Who knows whether or not they will turn out to be contributors at the MLB level or not. 

[Blyleven2011]

 to early to say on trade value  ...

Martin was doing well in 2021 and finished well with the twins  , then the team asked him to change his style of hitting for power and he wasn't the same player he once was until later in the season he converted back to his regular style of Hitting in AA  and in the AZFL , now 2022 he has had multiple injuries and his season is just beginning  , yes the twins staff has been slow at finding him a position other than at shortstop  ( another head scratcher  from the coaching  ) ...

If there is blame on lack of production with Martin it is on the front office ...

 

Pitcher SWR Richardson  was the other player  in the trade and was an Olympian  at the time of the trade , he was in AA  but did not pitch much after the trade  in 2021 , 2022 he was a solid starting pitcher in AA  and moved up to AAA  and had a 1 solid start at the end of 2022 with the twins ...                  what has happened to him this year as he has regressed , is he injured , maybe ? ,                                      did he not do the proper training during the offseason  to stay in shape  , maybe ? ,                              was he rushed  to the major leagues  or have the coaching  been responsible for his ugly numbers in 2022  , could be ?  ....

SWR is young and there could be a future  , Martin has the remainder of the season to show us his hitting style is for real  and then back to the AZFL and be ready for spring training  ....

Wouldn't hurt  if the front office paid for both players to go to DRIVELINE and get their confidence  and listen to other voices of opinions  , because it just might be the  plan the twins have  just might of screwed up their heads alittle ....

[nicksaviking]

Speaking nothing of the return the Twins got, had they extended Berrios, I'd be fairly uncomfortable at the moment. Last year was obviously a disaster, but while he's turned things around this year, his strikeouts are down from his heyday despite strikeouts being up league-wide the last couple of years. That's not the end of the world if the results hold, but it's usually a big indicator that the pitcher will not age well. Most of the good grey-beards who keep their production into their 30's don't lose the ability to miss bats.

[TwinsAce]

48 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Going on this logic, it is almost impossible to lose a trade, when trading a free agent to be, even if you basically get nothing you can't lose because a 1/2 year or even 1 1/2 of the traded player will never look bad.  (maybe that is true)

IMO you have to take into consideration as part of the trade review if the team signs the player to an extension.

It is possible to lose a trade for a pending FA, but it is a lot harder, especially if the team is not anywhere close to making the playoffs and they tried to sign the extension the previous offseason.  However, the ability to sign a player to an extension might reflect more on the original team (whether market, location, team standing, or front office) vs. results of the trade.

I think the main thing to keep in mind for pending FAs getting traded is how the team did the rest of that current year, how the player traded was doing both before and after the trade, if the return for the trade seemed fair or accurate compared to similar deals, and if there would have been a qualifying offer draft pick.  Even with how a player does before/after the trade though should almost be averaged out, since the new environment can often impact a player different ways, both for the positive and negative.

In some cases, we might hear rumors that a player was almost traded to another team and the potential return.  (Johan Santana, Brian Dozier, etc.) In those rare cases, where the rumor seems to be accurate, it adds another way the team could win or lose a trade if the potential return far outproduces the actual return.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Going on this logic, it is almost impossible to lose a trade, when trading a free agent to be, even if you basically get nothing you can't lose because a 1/2 year or even 1 1/2 of the traded player will never look bad.  (maybe that is true)

IMO you have to take into consideration as part of the trade review if the team signs the player to an extension.

Correct. A team out of contention cannot lose a trade of an impending FA (unless that FA can get a QO).

They are a free agent.....so, no, you can't take into account signing them or not, because they can sign them when they are a FA. 

[Dantes929]

23 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

This is why you trade prospects. They are just that, prospects. Who knows whether or not they will turn out to be contributors at the MLB level or not. 

No.  This is just anecdotal evidence.   Joe Ryan was just a prospect.   Duran was just a prospect.   Glad we didn't trade Kiriloff who was just a prospect.   Graterol was just a prospect.   I feel like we have traded a lot of prospects away that did well in exchange for established major league contributors who then flopped once they put on a Twins uniform.   It cuts every which way.     Not all prospects turn out to be stars but every star was once a prospect.   Maybe if we kept Berrios we don't get Gray, and I would rather have Gray at this point.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Correct. A team out of contention cannot lose a trade of an impending FA (unless that FA can get a QO).

They are a free agent.....so, no, you can't take into account signing them or not, because they can sign them when they are a FA. 

Maybe we should let Ted Schwerzler in on the secret, and he wouldn't have had to waste time writing the article.  😀

I can agree with you on that. So the trade shouldn't be considered a win/loss, it should be considered good/bad, because if you have an asset and you blow the return it should be considered bad.  As of right now they have two great assets in Berrios and Pressly and as of now blew them, but they had a decent asset in Escobar and got value, thus a good trade.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

7 minutes ago, Dantes929 said:

No.  This is just anecdotal evidence.   Joe Ryan was just a prospect.   Duran was just a prospect.   Glad we didn't trade Kiriloff who was just a prospect.   Graterol was just a prospect.   I feel like we have traded a lot of prospects away that did well in exchange for established major league contributors who then flopped once they put on a Twins uniform.   It cuts every which way.     Not all prospects turn out to be stars but every star was once a prospect.   Maybe if we kept Berrios we don't get Gray, and I would rather have Gray at this point.

Can't agree with this. The Twins could have traded away Jay, Romero, Gonzo, Stewart, Gordon and a ton of others and got somebody back and didn't, so for every prospects that was traded and turned out well, there are dozens of more that didn't get traded ended up not amounting to anything.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Maybe we should let Ted Schwerzler in on the secret, and he wouldn't have had to waste time writing the article.  😀

I can agree with you on that. So the trade shouldn't be considered a win/loss, it should be considered good/bad, because if you have an asset and you blow the return it should be considered bad.  As of right now they have two great assets in Berrios and Pressly and as of now blew them, but they had a decent asset in Escobar and got value, thus a good trade.

 

I agree that you can do better or worse in trades.....but a team out of contention getting ANY value for a player is more than just letting him walk (again, assuming no (QO).

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Can't agree with this. The Twins could have traded away Jay, Romero, Gonzo, Stewart, Gordon and a ton of others and got somebody back and didn't, so for every prospects that was traded and turned out well, there are dozens of more that didn't get traded ended up not amounting to anything.

That's why there are hundreds and hundreds of minor leaguers, because you need that many to get legit players. I don't get your point at all.....

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's why there are hundreds and hundreds of minor leaguers, because you need that many to get legit players. I don't get your point at all.....

Was replying to thread of that is why you trade prospects and his response. He seemed worried the Twins have traded a lot of prospects away that did well in exchange,(which I am not sure is really all that true, because up until like a year ago the Twins weren't much into trading prospects) And I was just pointing out for every prospect you trade that turns out decent there are dozens rated just as high or higher that don't.

 

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I agree that you can do better or worse in trades.....but a team out of contention getting ANY value for a player is more than just letting him walk (again, assuming no (QO).

Yeah, I'd say if the Twins failed on this, it's in not targeting one of Toronto's three young catchers, Kirk, Jansen or Moreno. Not because they were necessarily better prospects, but it might have kept them from making a poor decision with Vazquez.

But since all three of those guys are struggling to one degree or another this year, we'd probably still be having the same discussion.

[SwainZag]

This will be an interesting topic to discuss for years to come.  Interesting to note the Twins have 4 starters with better numbers than Jose this year and his big money in his extension doesn't kick in until next year.  

I think the real question should be, would you as a Twins fan be good with Berrios on the same contract and still in a Twins uniform?  It's a long contract and a lot of money to dish out if remains just a mid-rotation-ish starter.  

Just for reference:

3.74 ERA, 4.10 FIP. 8.47 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.5 WPA  - 5.94 Innings per start

2.70 ERA, 3.43 FIP. 8.69 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 1.4 WPA - 5.86 innings per start

Any guess the comparison?

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

This will be an interesting topic to discuss for years to come.  Interesting to note the Twins have 4 starters with better numbers than Jose this year and his big money in his extension doesn't kick in until next year.  

I think the real question should be, would you as a Twins fan be good with Berrios on the same contract and still in a Twins uniform?  It's a long contract and a lot of money to dish out if remains just a mid-rotation-ish starter.  

Just for reference:

3.74 ERA, 4.10 FIP. 8.47 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.5 WPA  - 5.94 Innings per start

2.70 ERA, 3.43 FIP. 8.69 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 1.4 WPA - 5.86 innings per start

Any guess the comparison?

I don't know that I'd be excited about the deal, but I wouldn't be crazy upset about it. 15, 17, 18, 18 before his opt out isn't bad at all for a mid-rotation guy. But if he doesn't improve I assume he'll opt in, and then I'd be pretty cranky with 24, 24 in his age 33 and 34 seasons. I think the trade made sense, I think the extension made sense, and I think right now neither side is pointing at this trade as a masterclass in winning trades.

Berrios and Ober would be my guess, but that's only because I don't think Ryan's ERA is down at 2.7 after that Atlanta performance.