Carlos Correa is Coming On for Minnesota

[Ted Schwerzler]

This offseason the Minnesota Twins primary goal was to secure Carlos Correa’s services for the long haul. They needed some help from the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants to get it done, but ultimately he wound up staying for the future. After a slow start to his season, it appears the former World Series champion may be turning it on.

 

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t think you’d find anyone more disappointed in his 94 OPS+ than Carlos Correa. As we have seen during his time with the Twins, he is an analytical player and absolutely knows his numbers. Manager Rocco Baldelli needs more, teammate Byron Buxton needs more, and the Minnesota Twins as a whole need more.

When April ended, Correa owned an abysmal .634 OPS. He was just two points north of the Mendoza line, and while his play in the field helped to mask some of his offensive woes, this wasn’t the production anyone signed up for. Not surprisingly though, Correa never should have been fazed.

As May wraps up, Correa has begun to turn a corner. He’s not lighting the world on fire but a .232/.337/.439 slash line puts him well above league average. In just his last 14 games coming into Monday’s action, Correa has hit a new gear. He has an .874 OPS in that span and has racked up six doubles while locking in at the plate to the tune of a 15/11 K/BB.

With more than 3,500 at-bats under his belt at this level, Correa has essentially seen it all. Knowing his numbers, it’s also likely not a surprise to him that a slow start could happen. April and March are statistically his worst months, even though he spent most of his career playing in the warmth of Houston, Texas. With a .787 OPS to start the season over the duration of his career, he’s needed to wait into the summer months for an uptick to take place.

May has often been better with an .842 career OPS during the second month, but June has always been his launching pad. A .969 OPS during June is easily the best calendar turn every season, and building up towards that as he has this year should have Minnesota fans excited about what may come next.

A season ago, Correa posted an ugly .633 OPS before May only to jump up to an .884 OPS in May and go bonkers with a 1.012 mark in June. He was equally bad to start this year and hasn’t quite been as good in May, but June is coming.

The Twins need some heavy lifting from their superstar, and the calendar presents an opportunity for it to come at the most important time. Facing Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Atlanta all during June, the Twins will have their hands full. Looking to keep the rest of the AL Central at bay, the turnaround for a lineup needing it can come through the bat of Correa.

Arguing against the Twins trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez this offseason doesn’t impact much on the field for this lineup. Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray have helped to make Baldelli’s staff one of the best in baseball, and a lineup capable of supporting them is already in place. It should be a matter of when, not if, they turn it around and Correa can lead that charge.

There is no denying that the Twins swing and miss too much. They’ve stunk with the bases loaded, and they have left opportunity unanswered more times than they’d like to count. Still, the ability for this collection to go on a run seems apparent, and Correa executing in his favorite month can be a catalyst for that.

It hasn't been a great start to the week facing his former Houston teammates, but Correa gets to flip the calendar and can remind himself that June is here. No one across the organization wanted to see Correa paid only for him to slump. Everyone involved has seen this play out before though, and now we’ll get a look at where things go from here with warmer weather coming.

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[#3Killer]

Should we really accept that it takes two months to “heat up”. Minimal AB’s in spring training, lots of off days early on, -are slumping athletes getting the work from hitting instructors and extra work in the batting cage. Our offense is really bad- and it shouldn’t be! Let’s hope lessons can be learned and fixed for the future. All these winnable games will really come back to haunt us at the seasons end. Every game counts.!

[Craig Arko]

I sure hope so.

[twins_89]

I'm not sure that Correa's .731 OPS in May (with a .504 OPS over the last week) is really any reason to get excited.

[jun]

I am not a fan of investing so much money on one single player who is not Shohei Ohtani.

[Steven Trefz]

From what I've witnessed on the road this season, no one in baseball receives the constant hate that Correa does in opposing ballparks. Dodgers Stadium was almost criminal at times. I don't know how a human being hears that time after time and doesn't let it impact his body during an at bat. Hearing the boos at home didn't help, because why would they.

Until that all stops, its going to be an impossible hill to climb I'm afraid. It's one thing when the Astros come to town and the whole team gets hated on...you can build around that and rally against it. The personal hate towards Correa, with the stuff that went down that he had no control over this off-season getting added into the boos by jealous and non-millionaire fans, impact a body's ability to focus on the hardest task in professional sports...hitting a round ball with a round bat.

His fielding hasn't sufferred...because he doesn't get booed out there.

Hoping that time heals the wounds...but not thinking its a quick fix.

Steve

[mikelink45]

Ted, are you hired to make the mess look like a success?  5 for 20 - also 5 Ks. -149 WPA.  And how much are we paying him to be a superstar?  No we have the right to criticize

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	Pos	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	IBB	GIDP	SF	SH	ROE	BOP	WPA	aLI	cWPA	acLI	RE24	PO	A
2023-05-30	MIN	@	HOU	L 1-5	SS	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	-0.013	0.74	-0.01%	0.76	-0.477	1	2
2023-05-29	MIN	@	HOU	W 7-5 (10)	SS	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	-0.118	1.12	-0.07%	1.12	-1.354	2	9
2023-05-28	MIN		TOR	L 0-3	SS	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	-0.099	1.24	-0.06%	1.22	-0.877	1	1
2023-05-26	MIN		TOR	L 1-3	SS	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.070	1.19	0.04%	1.18	0.655	5	4
2023-05-22	MIN		SFG	L 1-4	SS	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.011	0.65	0.01%	0.66	0.194	2	2

[Schmoeman5]

The warmer weather and ear plugs to drown out the incessant booing. Sounds about right. 

[Blyleven2011]

I'd have to agree that Correa is slightly turning the corner at the plate , working counts to his favor and getting walks  ,  we need production from him in a big way , timely hitting in clutch situations  , but we need that from all the hitters ...

We need to hit , run and score pure and simple  ...

I wish it was that easy to hit a round ball with a round bat but adjustments have to be made , identifying pitches also in order to do it  , the strikeouts continue to mount in double digits every game and is inexcusable  , 5 or 6 hits or even less is inexcusable ...

The starting pitchers have kept us in the game and the hitters have not ,  they have to start performing better and helping out the pitchers  ...

[Jocko87]

30 minutes ago, jun said:

I am not a fan of investing so much money on one single player who is not Shohei Ohtani.

Shohei is about to make his contract look like peanuts and I'm out at those levels no matter the player.  $200-270m?  Meh, not my money, price to play. 

[MABB1959]

Is it possible the Giants and Mets did a thorough evaluation and saw this coming and the Twins cracker jack front office didn't?

[h2oface]

I can't feel sorry for Correa. He dug his own grave. Only some of the Twins fans seem to now not care because he is on their team. And Houston fans don't care, because he was on their infamous team. The rest of baseball fans are not forgetting. Nor should they. The only thing he can do is perform, and this year, he has a long was to go. If he is soooooo good and smart, why does he start the last two years at the plate like someone that needs DFAd? And Miranda took him as mentor and is starting even worse. Perhaps he needs some help? Something is terribly amiss. Time to earn his salary all year.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Ted, are you hired to make the mess look like a success?  5 for 20 - also 5 Ks. -149 WPA.  And how much are we paying him to be a superstar?  No we have the right to criticize

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	Pos	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	IBB	GIDP	SF	SH	ROE	BOP	WPA	aLI	cWPA	acLI	RE24	PO	A
2023-05-30	MIN	@	HOU	L 1-5	SS	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	-0.013	0.74	-0.01%	0.76	-0.477	1	2
2023-05-29	MIN	@	HOU	W 7-5 (10)	SS	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	-0.118	1.12	-0.07%	1.12	-1.354	2	9
2023-05-28	MIN		TOR	L 0-3	SS	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	-0.099	1.24	-0.06%	1.22	-0.877	1	1
2023-05-26	MIN		TOR	L 1-3	SS	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.070	1.19	0.04%	1.18	0.655	5	4
2023-05-22	MIN		SFG	L 1-4	SS	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.011	0.65	0.01%	0.66	0.194	2	2

5 for 20 is a .250 average. Add the 3 walks and it's a .347 OBP. 5 strikeouts is pretty low for todays' MLB. If this is a "bad stretch" he's doing just fine.

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Is it possible the Giants and Mets did a thorough evaluation and saw this coming and the Twins cracker jack front office didn't?

That wouldn't explain why they wanted to give him more money than the Twins are paying him.

[Riverbrian]

Two players on this roster can't have ice on them. They are Correa and Buxton. 

What they are capable of doing would be nearly impossible to replace. 

[umterp23]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Two players on this roster can't have ice on them. They are Correa and Buxton. 

What they are capable of doing would be nearly impossible to replace. 

Spot on Riverbrian, spot on....

Correa told Buxton be the DH.  Buxton told Correa swing and miss like Sano.  They traded frequent mall shopping buyers cards for cologne all while laughing when they get their direct deposit of a paycheck each month.  Turning it on.  

Correa 0-5 in Twins win vs Astros with Lewis and Jeffers being clutch.

Buxton not in the lineup for the win, but I heard he is on pace for appearing in 90% of the games this year! Whoop-de-do.

Almost $45MM a year for these two and we have to allow them to play themselves into better shape into June each year.  

What a bad commentary of let's write another feel good article and would of, could of.  Can't wait to see the next Arraez article.  

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Is it possible the Giants and Mets did a thorough evaluation and saw this coming and the Twins cracker jack front office didn't?

No.

[Brandon]

Last years slow start was partially attributed to the late start in spring training and short spring training from the lock out.  While I fully understand slumps and am not surprised by any player going through one, I will be disappointed if Correa doesn't end up close to his career OPS by the end of the season (.828 career OPS).  However he gets there is fine by me.  But i think others prefer a more balanced OPS through out the year.  especially at the beginning.  

The Twins Pythagorean win total should be 32-23 by runs scored and runs given up 248 to 208.  vs the 28-27 record we currently have.  I have never seen the Twins underperform this by that much.  we are usually over with our record.  That I think is the most frustrating part of the year.  we have the offense it just doesn't work all the time.  

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

Spot on Riverbrian, spot on....

Correa told Buxton be the DH.  Buxton told Correa swing and miss like Sano.  They traded frequent mall shopping buyers cards for cologne all while laughing when they get their direct deposit of a paycheck each month.  Turning it on.  

Correa 0-5 in Twins win vs Astros with Lewis and Jeffers being clutch.

Buxton not in the lineup for the win, but I heard he is on pace for appearing in 90% of the games this year! Whoop-de-do.

Almost $45MM a year for these two and we have to allow them to play themselves into better shape into June each year.  

What a bad commentary of let's write another feel good article and would of, could of.  Can't wait to see the next Arraez article.  

That wasn't exactly what I meant but I'll take the spot on and put in my pocket for safe keeping anyway. 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

5 for 20 is a .250 average. Add the 3 walks and it's a .347 OBP. 5 strikeouts is pretty low for todays' MLB. If this is a "bad stretch" he's doing just fine.

The problem is - it is not a bad stretch - it is his best stretch and we are 1/3rd of the way through the season, not opening month.

[Ricky Vaughn]

His defense is spectacular. On offense it seems that he only hits when the game has already been won or lost. That has been true last year and this year, so why not at least move him down in the order.

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Is it possible the Giants and Mets did a thorough evaluation and saw this coming and the Twins cracker jack front office didn't?

Sadly, I think this is very likely. Falvey/Levine set aside the x-rays and picked up rose colored glasses instead. Boras was probably only too happy they came back around to help him and his client save face.

I like Correa. I wish this wasn't happening. But he's no superstar at this point, and it's only year one.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Is it possible the Giants and Mets did a thorough evaluation and saw this coming and the Twins cracker jack front office didn't?

Come on……seriously? He’ll hit .265 plus by year end & will be a threat in the middle of a good line-up come September/October.

Lewis - CC - Polanco/Farmer - Kirilloff/Gallo is maybe the best all-around offensive infield in the game! Not every game or even to this point in May. But ultimately they are very good!

[CRF]

Did I miss something? Did CC "come on" overnight? I have no doubt that he'll start to pick it up relatively soon, but he's not doing much yet. 

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Come on……seriously? He’ll hit .265 plus by year end & will be a threat in the middle of a good line-up come September/October.

Lewis - CC - Polanco/Farmer - Kirilloff/Gallo is maybe the best all-around offensive infield in the game! Not every game or even to this point in May. But ultimately they are very good!

Is .265 good.   I guess I would expect nothing less than .300+ for that kind of money.  What do you see to expect.265?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

No.

Therein lies the problem..

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Come on……seriously? He’ll hit .265 plus by year end & will be a threat in the middle of a good line-up come September/October.

Why stop with October? Why wouldn't Correa be a threat in November? You think he's gonna post an 0-fer in Games 5, 6 and 7 of the World Series? 🤣

[MGM4706]

May was better overall but NOT when the Twins needed his bat. Lot of hits that were meaningless. Twins paid for clutch hits!!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Is it possible the Giants and Mets did a thorough evaluation and saw this coming and the Twins cracker jack front office didn't?

Oh, definitely, I agree. Too many things could go wrong, too many secondary injuries possible, not to mention Correa may not be all he is cracked up to be as a clubhouse leader. 

After the medicals raised concerns, the Mets still offered 6/157, for some reason. I have to wonder if a Correa injury was even insurable by that point. Yet the Twins ripped up that 6/157 and gave him 6/200 guaranteed. yikes. 

[Twins33]

13 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Is .265 good.   I guess I would expect nothing less than .300+ for that kind of money.  What do you see to expect.265?

11 qualified hitters hit .300 or better last year. Baseball has been going this direction for years now. 

It has become extremely unrealistic to expect anyone to hit .300.