Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Catcher

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins' second-biggest free agent signing of the offseason provides crucial stability at a position that was sorely lacking for it last year. What's the outlook behind the plate in 2023?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker and Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA Today Sports

Projected Starter: Christian Vázquez
Likely Backup: Ryan Jeffers
Depth: Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner, Chance Sisco
Prospects: Chris Williams, Noah Cardenas

THE GOOD
Acquiring a veteran catcher was a top priority for the Twins this offseason, and they got their guy, signing Vázquez to three-year, $30 million deal as arguably the second-best free agent at the position. The 32-year-old could hardly be described as a star, but that's not what the Twins were seeking: they wanted stability following a season where they enjoyed very little of it behind the plate.

Vázquez has had a few standout seasons, highlighted by a 2019 campaign where he slashed .276/.320/.477 with 23 home runs for Boston, but the Twins would be perfectly content with a repeat of 2022: average offense (99 OPS+) and steady defense combined with reliable availability. 

The Twins continue to believe in Jeffers as their future behind the plate, but the presence of Vázquez means they don't need to entirely plan around that scenario in the short term, which is probably wise given how things have gone for Jeffers over the past two seasons. 

While the righty-swinging Vázquez doesn't provide a platoon advantage, he's much more capable against right-handed pitchers and should allow the Twins to play Jeffers more to his strength against lefties, against whom he's slashed .263/.344/.450 in his career. 

Both are considered very solid receivers who pitchers like to work with, giving the Twins a more consistent level of quality behind the plate after Gary Sánchez (still unsigned) caught 714 innings mostly out of necessity last season.

THE BAD
The Twins really need to hope Vázquez can maintain his record of staying healthy, because an injury could put the Twins right back into a familiar spot of grasping for answers behind the plate.

Their depth was so sparse last year that when Jeffers went down for an extended period, they were forced to run out Caleb Hamilton for a few games and eventually acquired no-hit veteran Sany León from Cleveland's Triple-A team. He became more or less the primary starter.

Minnesota has built out its experienced upper-level depth a bit with Wolters, Greiner, and Cisco, but those three combined to play four games in the majors last year. Meanwhile, there's no position in the Twins organization with less in the way of immediate pipeline impact. As discussed in this year's top prospect recap, catcher continues to be an area of extreme scarcity in this system.

THE BOTTOM LINE
The front office desperately needed to strengthen the catcher position this past offseason, and while they did, it could still hardly be described as a strength. Although I guess that depends on your assessment of Jeffers. 

In some eyes, he could be viewed as one of the best backup catchers in the game – a still-developing impact starter who now has the luxury of coming along slowly with an established vet splitting time. If both guys stay healthy and Jeffers takes that next step, the Twins will have a catching setup that is the envy of the league. 

The thing is, it's hard to count on that. Jeffers has seen his OPS drop from .791 in a strong rookie campaign to .670 in 2021 to .648 last year, and has struggled to stay healthy. You don't have to squint to see the potential of a two-way asset – I was reminded of his raw power while watching him repeatedly hit absolute tanks in BP last week – but the 25-year-old is already inching toward arbitration without even a 1-WAR season to his credit.

Losing either of their top two backstops would force the Twins to delve into their murky depth, and while Vázquez has thankfully been pretty durable in the past, he also turns 33 this season.

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[Karbo]

With the new rules Jeffers could be a liability behind the plate due to his poor success rate against base stealers. That must be improved or most singles will turn into doubles, and most walks will be at 2nd.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, You hit the nail on the head. My Red Sox fan friends tell me that they loved Vazquez at catcher. The past stats tell me that Twins fans will too. We shall see. I am optimistic.

[Doctor Gast]

I haven't seen a lot of Jeffers behind the plate. When Vasquez leaves for WBC, I imagine we'll see a lot of Jeffers there. Just wondering how bad they're going to run on him. IMHO Jeffers could become a liability. We'll see.

In house through out the organization catching has been neglected, unfortunately. We have a couple lower level but it might take awhile if ever they make MLB. Catching is a premium position that deserves our focus.

[MGM4706]

Stop calling Jeffers the future. His arm is so limited and the league has figured out he can't hit a curve ball. Just like Larnach. Both look like Sano against cutters!

[roger]

Great article, Nick.  Prior to the off-season I was of the opinion that catcher was the #1 need for the winter.  Was hoping they would: 1) bring in a solid starter so Jeffers would become a backup, not co-starter; 2) sign a not too old veteran to a MiLB contract at St. Paul to both work with that young staff and be available to be added to the 40-man and called up when/if an injury happens; and 3) complete a trade to bring in a good prospect at Hi-A or AA.  Well, two of three ain't bad and they got three of those guys for St. Paul.  

But you nailed it when you said that the pipeline for catchers doesn't exist.  May be a couple guys in the lower levels, but trading Rortvedt cost them their only prospect at the higher levels.  As last year, I am praying there is a top catcher available high in this year's draft.  Unlikely at #5, but hopefully one of the top guys will fall to them with their second pick.  Would also be nice if they could manufacture a trade over the next few months with one of those outfielders, plus another player, for a very good AA prospect.

[JD-TWINS]

Jeffers seems like a good depth catcher to me at this point. ALL teams play at least 2 guys at Catcher……..few play more than 70%, right? The 2nd guy on 30 teams can’t be significantly better than Jeffers.

Vazquez is a good #1 guy with a better than decent bat…….Jeffers is developing - hopefully, Vázquez rubs off on him.

[Althebum82]

Vasquez is clearly an upgrade over Gary Sanchez.  We need Jeffers to be an upgrade over Jeffers.  Wolters signing is great for spring training, but not much value beyond that.  Did not even know about Greiner until I saw an article a couple of days ago about his 6'7" height.  Hope Cardenas can continue to fulfill his early promise.  Williams had me excited last season until I realized that he played more 1B/DH than catcher last year because of his defensive limitations.  Overall I think we are in a better place than we were at this time last season, but that is a partial testimony to how rough we looked last year.

[CRF]

I think at this point, Jeffers is what he is. A back up catcher and nothing more. I'd hate to have him as the main guy behind the plate. Vazquez is a big improvement over over Jeffers, and over Sanchez from last season.  

[FlyingFinn]

I wouldn't list Williams as a catching prospect. Look how little he plays at catcher. Jair Camargo must not be as good as I thought. He seemed to actually play catcher more than other positions, has some pop in his bat (at least he did at AA last year), and is only 23. I thought his defense was good but am only going on what people on TD say. Nobody is talking about him and he isn't getting a shot with the Twins in spring training. Can someone tell me why he isn't a good prospect?

[mikelink45]

If we were rating MN disappointments - Jeffers would be high.  His rookie years showed so much promise, but his diminishing numbers don't show a player who is progressing.   And the next depth wave looks pretty meager. 

[jmlease1]

In a vacuum, the Twins catching depth looks a little thin. In the context of MLB as a whole...it's probably pretty good? I mean, it's one of the toughest positions to find a true 2-way player at and even guys that are league-average hitters provide significant value at catcher when you consider just how poorly catchers hit last season.

SD was ranked 15th last season in catcher in team OPS (.658) yet that was good enough for 2.4 offensive bWAR at the position. You have to go all the way down to the 24th spot to start getting to negative team offensive bWAR at catcher (the Mets, whose catchers had a collective .589 OPS). That's the context Vazquez and Jeffers are playing in.

Offense at catcher is so bad league wide that if we get career average performances from Vazquez and Jeffers we're going to have one of the better duos in MLB, especially if they continue to be quality options defensively. We'll see how Jeffers and Vazquez do controlling the running game this season, but I'm a little surprised by the assumption that Jeffers is somehow terrible at it?

The Twins don't have much minor league depth to be sure, and it's something they need to address in the draft, in international signings, trades, something. but right now, the MLB club looks to be in pretty good shape and better than most.

[farmerguychris]

Sounds like it might be time to invest some higher draft capital in the backstop position - won't help now, but maybe a stud could be nearly ready by time Vasquez contract ends if we're super lucky.  Still hope Jeffers turns it around, but can't bank on it.

[PDX Twin]

As always, Nick, thoughtful, interesting, and well-written! I know I probably sound like your mom, but I really enjoy what you contribute to the site.

[Nick Nelson]

47 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Stop calling Jeffers the future. His arm is so limited and the league has figured out he can't hit a curve ball. Just like Larnach. Both look like Sano against cutters!

Ah. So we're declaring 25 year olds with basically one full season of MLB experience finished products with no future now? Doesn't seem quite fair to me.

[TwinsDr2021]

45 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Jeffers seems like a good depth catcher to me at this point. ALL teams play at least 2 guys at Catcher……..few play more than 70%, right? The 2nd guy on 30 teams can’t be significantly better than Jeffers.

Vazquez is a good #1 guy with a better than decent bat…….Jeffers is developing - hopefully, Vázquez rubs off on him.

Jeffers career OPS+ is 88 and Vazquez is 85. With Jeffer's defensive liabilities you would hope his bat is better I get that,

Based on my limited research I would say this year and maybe next will determine Jeffers future, if he gets better he could become a starting catcher, if not he will probably just be catcher depth for some team.

[Nick Nelson]

In timely fashion, Statcast just unveiled a new catching metric today: Blocks Above Average.

Worth a look. Most will not be surprised to hear that Jeffers rates below average (-3), but Vazquez is solidly above (+6).

[Doctor Gast]

I've been on the Jeffers trade train for sometime now when his trade value was up there. I've never seen him as a starting catcher. His trade value still isn't too bad, we should trade him before his value is almost worthless and pick up a decent MLB ready prospect from PIT, LAA or LAD to be mentored by Vazquez.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Ah. So we're declaring 25 year olds with basically one full season of MLB experience finished products with no future now? Doesn't seem quite fair to me.

It truly is amazing. Plus he's a catcher! Hardest position in the game. The lack of patience from fans always amazes me. 

[jimbo92107]

Looks like a pretty solid, if unspectacular duo of catchers. Who is the next guy up, in case of injuries?

[Mike Sixel]

If I was going to actually worry about baseball, the third catcher would be near my top concern (that and that Gallo and Kepler both don't hit).

[Twins GFP]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

In a vacuum, the Twins catching depth looks a little thin. In the context of MLB as a whole...it's probably pretty good? I mean, it's one of the toughest positions to find a true 2-way player at and even guys that are league-average hitters provide significant value at catcher when you consider just how poorly catchers hit last season.

SD was ranked 15th last season in catcher in team OPS (.658) yet that was good enough for 2.4 offensive bWAR at the position. You have to go all the way down to the 24th spot to start getting to negative team offensive bWAR at catcher (the Mets, whose catchers had a collective .589 OPS). That's the context Vazquez and Jeffers are playing in.

Offense at catcher is so bad league wide that if we get career average performances from Vazquez and Jeffers we're going to have one of the better duos in MLB, especially if they continue to be quality options defensively. We'll see how Jeffers and Vazquez do controlling the running game this season, but I'm a little surprised by the assumption that Jeffers is somehow terrible at it?

The Twins don't have much minor league depth to be sure, and it's something they need to address in the draft, in international signings, trades, something. but right now, the MLB club looks to be in pretty good shape and better than most.

This is such an important part of team catching analysis, I am surprised this was not addressed in the article.  Context and comparison.

The days of having one starting Catcher are over.  Having an awesome 2-way catcher is exceedingly rare, with the better hitters being moved out of the position to protect their health.  The Twins appear to be better off than most teams at the major league level, especially if Jeffers can settle into the offensive side.

 

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Sounds like it might be time to invest some higher draft capital in the backstop position - won't help now, but maybe a stud could be nearly ready by time Vasquez contract ends if we're super lucky.  Still hope Jeffers turns it around, but can't bank on it.

even if Jeffers improves (and I think he will, in fact) the Twins still need to be thinking and planning for the future. It'd be great if your #1 catcher could play 130-140 games a season every year and you could slot in a specialist as the backup, but that's a best case scenario that's unlikely to be true. Vazquez is signed for 3 seasons and at the end of it I'm not expecting him to be a quality option at 35 and 11 years deep into his career.

Catcher is easily the biggest organizational depth weakness right now, unless a couple of the young guys down in A-ball make a sudden jump. everywhere else we have guys, or guys that can slide down the defensive scale into those spots. But at least at the MLB level I think we're about as well-positioned as we reasonably could be.

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I wouldn't list Williams as a catching prospect. Look how little he plays at catcher. Jair Camargo must not be as good as I thought. He seemed to actually play catcher more than other positions, has some pop in his bat (at least he did at AA last year), and is only 23. I thought his defense was good but am only going on what people on TD say. Nobody is talking about him and he isn't getting a shot with the Twins in spring training. Can someone tell me why he isn't a good prospect?

He became a minor league free agent at the end of 2022 and sat around for a bit, until the Twins signed him. If other teams thought anything of him, he’d been signed in an instant.

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

even if Jeffers improves (and I think he will, in fact) the Twins still need to be thinking and planning for the future. It'd be great if your #1 catcher could play 130-140 games a season every year and you could slot in a specialist as the backup, but that's a best case scenario that's unlikely to be true. Vazquez is signed for 3 seasons and at the end of it I'm not expecting him to be a quality option at 35 and 11 years deep into his career.

Catcher is easily the biggest organizational depth weakness right now, unless a couple of the young guys down in A-ball make a sudden jump. everywhere else we have guys, or guys that can slide down the defensive scale into those spots. But at least at the MLB level I think we're about as well-positioned as we reasonably could be.

4 catchers appeared in that many games last year. I think your goal is unrealistic. I agree they need more catching prospects, but it is also possible they'll just sign FA catchers every year they need one, and concentrate on other positions in the draft and trades (I'd consider Polanco for a high level C prospect and another player this year or next).

[FlyingFinn]

10 minutes ago, Danchat said:

He became a minor league free agent at the end of 2022 and sat around for a bit, until the Twins signed him. If other teams thought anything of him, he’d been signed in an instant.

Duly noted. But if Camargo wanted to make it to the majors, he could also see his best shot in Minnesota. One rotten season from Jeffers in 2023 would open up a spot for someone like him in 2024 as a backup if he had a great year with the Saints.

But you are probably right as nobody seems excited about him.

[jmlease1]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

4 catchers appeared in that many games last year. I think your goal is unrealistic. I agree they need more catching prospects, but it is also possible they'll just sign FA catchers every year they need one, and concentrate on other positions in the draft and trades (I'd consider Polanco for a high level C prospect and another player this year or next).

Yeah, that was my point: catchers aren't going to play in 130-140 games a season and you can't treat the position like you're going to have one primary guy and a backup that won't play enough to hurt you if they slug their own weight. 

they might be able to patch this through free agency after Vazquez moves on, or Jeffers flames out, but it'd be nice to have some organizational prospects moving along in the system. (I'm definitely not on the "trade Polanco" this season train, though; while it might max his value, I think this team is good enough to compete right now and Polanco is going to be a big part of it. Dealing him for depth is assuming a lot of risk that someone like Lee or Julien is ready to step in when neither has played a game in AAA)

[Twins GFP]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

4 catchers appeared in that many games last year. I think your goal is unrealistic. I agree they need more catching prospects, but it is also possible they'll just sign FA catchers every year they need one, and concentrate on other positions in the draft and trades (I'd consider Polanco for a high level C prospect and another player this year or next).

Here is the games caught leader list for 2022:

 

J.T. Realmuto, PHI [C]	133
Sean Murphy, OAK [C|DH]	116
Cal Raleigh, SEA [C]	115
Martin Maldonado, HOU [C]	113
Jose Trevino, NYY [C]	112
Jonah Heim, TEX [C]	111
Jacob Stallings, MIA [C]	110
Will Smith, LAD [C|DH]	109
Christian Vazquez, HOU [C]	108
Keibert Ruiz, WAS [C]	106
Austin Hedges, CLE [C]	105
Elias Diaz, COL [C]	104
Austin Nola, SD [C]	101
Carson Kelly, ARI [C]	100

[rwilfong86]

The Vazquez signing was a lowkey big win for the Twins, lots of attention on Gallo, Correa, Taylor and the Lopez trade but this signing was a huge upgrade. Jeffers can be a solid backup but they needed a guy like Vazquez.

[jkcarew]

If nothing else, I like that the pairing don't completely mirror each other's strengths and weaknesses like last year. A little more opportunity to mix and match depending upon the situation.