Trade Rumor: A Hypothetical Twins Trade for Luis Castillo from The Athletic

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

True. What I find most appealing about Steer is the fact that he'll probably hit and can do it at several positions. I'm sure if you put an OF glove in his hand, he'd be just fine out there, too (though obviously would need to hit more to be an asset there).

I don't disagree with you on Steer at all. He's not untouchable, but he's close. Most definitely on my very short list of prospects I don't want to part with. I value him more than Larnach so I'd be more than happy to swap him out. But that goes back to me being a fan who values prospects more than I should and getting bored with MLB capable players before I should.

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Then I guess it's a good thing Miranda is a long term 3B and not 1B. He's got 1 OAA at 3B compared to -2 at 1B. Glad he's targeted to play 3B.

He is good at neither.

[howeda7]

I'd rather give up Ober than Winder, but I'd rather try and keep it away from those who we may need in 2022/23. Would Sands/Richardson/Steer get it done?

[PseudoSABR]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

He is good at neither.

Those 14 games starting at 3B sure give us the full picture. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Then I guess it's a good thing Miranda is a long term 3B and not 1B. He's got 1 OAA at 3B compared to -2 at 1B. Glad he's targeted to play 3B.

Good point.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good point.

Took me 21 days, but I got my 1 for the month.

[Rosterman]

No!

[ashbury]

The realistic thing about the proposed trade, to me, is that the Reds receive 2 arms for their 1, plus a bat.  You're not going to pry away prime pitching with any collection of batters, within reason.

And since we don't actually have an oversupply of near-major league ready pitching to offer, I continue to cast doubt that we'll outbid everyone else for the small supply of difference makers.

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not dealing Winder and Woods Richardson for one pitcher.

Then, IMO, you're not getting anyone's top pitcher, whether named Castillo or something else.

Look back in Twins history and put yourself in the Reds' shoes.  Suppose 2005 had gone a little worse and was a down season: would you trade peak Johan Santana in July for someone else's non-top 50 pitching prospect plus a good hitting prospect or two?

[USAFChief]

Hopefully the Twins read The Athletic and have already made this proposal to the Reds.

[ashbury]

36 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Hopefully the Twins read The Athletic and have already made this proposal to the Reds.

They might get a busy signal because the Reds simultaneously picked up the phone to try to call the Twins.  "Thad?  Oh, sorry, it rolled over to you, Derek!  Hey, never mind, cutting to the chase, did you read the Athletic just now...?"

Because that's how this all works in our modern age.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Then, IMO, you're not getting anyone's top pitcher, whether named Castillo or something else.

Look back in Twins history and put yourself in the Reds' shoes.  Suppose 2005 had gone a little worse and was a down season: would you trade peak Johan Santana in July for someone else's non-top 50 pitching prospect plus a good hitting prospect or two?

I think that might be looking at things from a Twins fan perspective. Looking at the Reds top prospects, three of the top six are pitchers, including Chase Petty who got Sonny Gray all by himself. 
 

When selling MLB talent for prospects, sure, the TWINS should be looking to get pitching prospects back because this team has had a rough couple decades developing their own. I don’t know that that’s necessarily a universal view for the rest of the league though.

The Reds for instance have done well developing their own pitchers, but have been pretty dreadful with developing bats. Including several very well regarded hitting prospects.

[Stew]

8 hours ago, RpR said:

If you use defense as a parameter, then trade Miranda; I am not a big fan of Larnach but the way he was regularly hitting double before he was hurt, plus he can back-up Kepler in right, makes more sense than Miranda's Little League fielding skills.

Sano's numbers af first are a goodly number better than  Miranda.

No way is Miranda worse than sano.. mirandi's fielding avg is 989 better than most the team. That's in 55 games. Sano has made 1 extra error in only 16 games. A full season would have sano at 30 errors for a first baseman!!!!!!!!!! Mirada is batting 251 with 8 homers . He would finish with with 24 in a full season. Sano has 1 he would finish with 10. He's batting .093. we can opt out after the season for 2.75 million. Otherwise we pay him 14+ million.

[terrydactyls]

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I mean, not really. In Sano's first 500-ish innings, he posted a -5 DRS. Miranda has a -2 DRS in about half that number of innings.

If you understand mathematics, you would realize that you just disproved your premise.  Sano at -5 in 500 innings is -1 for each 100 innings.  Miranda at -2.5 in around 250 innings also equals -1 for every 100 innings.  Sounds like they are interchangeable, and as someone else pointed out, Miranda is most likely a 3B or 2B, not a 1B.

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Then, IMO, you're not getting anyone's top pitcher, whether named Castillo or something else.

Look back in Twins history and put yourself in the Reds' shoes.  Suppose 2005 had gone a little worse and was a down season: would you trade peak Johan Santana in July for someone else's non-top 50 pitching prospect plus a good hitting prospect or two?

I'd deal many of the hitting prospects, just not those two pitchers for one pitcher. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If you understand mathematics, you would realize that you just disproved your premise.  Sano at -5 in 500 innings is -1 for each 100 innings.  Miranda at -2.5 in around 250 innings also equals -1 for every 100 innings.  Sounds like they are interchangeable, and as someone else pointed out, Miranda is most likely a 3B or 2B, not a 1B.

I was the one who said they're both bad (and implied they were interchangeable).

[Squirrel]

I would hate to lose SWR, but I’d do that deal in a heartbeat.

[Five minute major]

If the Twins were a legit WS contender, than yes.  But they are absolutely not that this year.  

 

 

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, Five minute major said:

If the Twins were a legit WS contender, than yes.  But they are absolutely not that this year.  

 

 

I have no interest in rental pitchers either, but  Castillo would be here next year too.

[umterp23]

19 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Miranda has played fewer than 550 innings at first base in his professional career. Sano has triple that number of innings and was really bad at the position in the early going.

Has played 255 innings at 1B (36 games) with a fielding % of .992 (2 errors) in 243 chances at 1st.  8 assists and has helped turned 20 DP's.  The notion that he has little league fielding skills is far from accurate.  Wouldn't trade Miranda at all.  36 games at 1st and has started to settle.  So Brock I agree with you for sure

[umterp23]

20 hours ago, RpR said:

If you use defense as a parameter, then trade Miranda; I am not a big fan of Larnach but the way he was regularly hitting double before he was hurt, plus he can back-up Kepler in right, makes more sense than Miranda's Little League fielding skills.

Sano's numbers af first are a goodly number better than  Miranda.

Give it a rest, he has played 36 games at 1b with 2 errors in 243 chances with 8 assists.  I guess that is little league to you, but he is solid.  All the other numbers you throw at it are based on 1,200 innings.  He has 255 innings.  

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Five minute major said:

If the Twins were a legit WS contender, than yes.  But they are absolutely not that this year.  

 

 

Add a top starter, a decent reliever, players come back from injury at where they were, and players playing at their peak they would be a contender. That is pretty much the same if as all of the rest of the teams

[Major League Ready]

On 7/21/2022 at 12:52 PM, RpR said:

At no time were Sano's numbers at first as bad as Miranda's are now.

Kirilloff is the 1B going forward and Arraez is the 1st back-up.  Miranda will be at 3rd when they trade Urshela or nob-tender him so this argument makes no sense.  I might add that after Miranda slow start he has come on to hit 300 since 6/1 with a wRC+ of 147.  Teams don't trade rookies that hit this well even if they are below average defenders.  Of course, there is always the possibility he improves defensively.

[Mike Sixel]

8 hours ago, Five minute major said:

If the Twins were a legit WS contender, than yes.  But they are absolutely not that this year.  

 

 

So, not likely next year either. Just punt that too? Trade off veterans?

[howeda7]

39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, not likely next year either. Just punt that too? Trade off veterans?

And 2024. Let's target 2026. I'm sure the Yankees/Astros/Dodgers won't be as loaded then....

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Kirilloff is the 1B going forward and Arraez is the 1st back-up.  Miranda will be at 3rd when they trade Urshela or nob-tender him so this argument makes no sense.  I might add that after Miranda slow start he has come on the hot 300 since 6/1 with a wRC+ of 147.  Teams don't trade rookies that hit this well even if they are below average defenders.  Of course, there is always the possibility he improves defensively.

Correct. Miranda is 23, he can improve defensively. More importantly, so far he has shown that he can hit - .280/.330/.462 in the last 30 games and better than that after his first 60 ABs or so. Guys who hit like this with power don't grow on trees. Plus, this his his first go around, chances are this will improve. AND we have 5-6 years of control. He stays unless we get a pitcher of similar quality with 4-5 years of control. Same for Kirilloff - .306/.362/.459 over the last 30 games. Those 2 are the middle of the order for 2023 and beyond. 

I'd trade Larnach (but only for top end starter), and I would part with Celestino, Steer, and Wallner  in the right trades. I'd even think about trading Ober or Winder but not both. For me, Miranda and Kirilloff are untouchable unless the return is a quality starting pitcher with multiple years of control and that ain't happening. 

[farmerguychris]

Nope- thats too high a price for me.

[bean5302]

On 7/21/2022 at 11:33 AM, nicksaviking said:

With Balazovic's, Sands' and Canterino's struggles, I just think Winder has to stay. There is just NO other depth and both Bundy and Smeltzer are on the brink of collapse. Probably past the brink actually. Archer and his short starts shouldn't be in the rotation with state of the bullpen and this trade doesn't help the relief corp.

Castillo and Mahle sound like great ideas to me, but Winder is the ONLY back up plan at the moment, and from my perspective, he should currently be the #3 starter. 

I think it the Twins draft and development pipeline depends that greatly on a 7th round pick, that's enough for me to call for Falvey's head.

[bean5302]

I like Winder's potential a lot. If everything went his way, like literally everything, he could be a top of the rotation guy. I think he profiles better as a mid rotation guy, but he's had shoulder issues in two consecutive years. That's a major red flag to me. If Winder's shoulder can't handle the starter workload consistently, it means he's going to be in the bullpen and the value he brings at that point is heavily diminished.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I think it the Twins draft and development pipeline depends that greatly on a 7th round pick, that's enough for me to call for Falvey's head.

Winning the division two of the last three years, and leading this year, and you fire him? Tough boss. I'm constantly amazed at this site.