Trade Rumor: A Hypothetical Twins Trade for Luis Castillo from The Athletic

[Nick Nelson]

A new article from C. Trent Rosecrans in The Athletic offers 9 different trade scenarios for frontline starter Luis Castillo, as provided by writers from the respective teams, vetted by Keith Law for realisticness. 

Here's the hypothetical Twins deal: "The trade: Twins send Spencer Steer, Josh Winder and Simeon Woods Richardson to the Reds for Luis Castillo."

Law didn't view this package as nearly as implausible as some others. What do you think? Would you do it?

View full trade rumor

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not dealing Winder and Woods Richardson for one pitcher. I'm not sure I deal winder at all.... And I'm a trade for some help guy. 

[chpettit19]

Law gave it a "Maybe?" response, and listed his concerns about Winder not sticking as a starter so the package would actually be too light.

The bigger thing I got from that article is that other teams can put together far better packages than the Twins without touching their #1 prospects (although the Padres suggestion included Hassell). The Twins don't have great buying power in the arms race of the next 2 weeks.

[Mike Sixel]

I wonder what Keith doesn't like about Winder? I mean, if he's not a starter, then I do this deal for sure. 

[nicksaviking]

I agree, I think Winder is going to be pretty important this year and beyond. I think dealing from the Kirilloff/Miranda/Winder/Ober group diminishes the gains you'd get from the trade.

[Blyleven2011]

Winder is not expendable  and I have liked what I have seen over some of the other rookie pitching prospects ...

His stuff plays well so far and only looks to get better if he stays healthy  ... I like his composure on the mound ... seems like a bulldog  ...

 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I wonder what Keith doesn't like about Winder? I mean, if he's not a starter, then I do this deal for sure. 

How hard guys have hit his fastball and the shape of his off speed were the concerns he listed.

And for reference he had Winder ranked 8th in the system coming into the year and said he'd have been in his top 100 were it not for his injury last year. So his concerns are based on what he's seen at the major league level this season.

[raindog]

I mean, it would hurt, but the Twins would still be getting a deal here. I think the Twins would definitely do this. I doubt it's enough for the Reds. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's troubling to give up two MLB or close to MLB ready pitchers but I probably make this trade if I'm confident Castillo is healthy.

But it's a damned dangerous trade to make, especially for the 2024 season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

By the way, I *really* like the format of this piece. For those of you who can't access it, a bunch of team writers for The Athletic propose trades for Castillo and then Keith Law grades them all. It's a really good approach to giving fans a barometer of what it might take to trade for a specific player.

[Doctor Gast]

I like this deal and do it although I doubt that he'd resign with us and that the Reds would take it.

[chpettit19]

Do they think anyone from the Povich, Prielipp, Hajjar, Balazovic, Canterino, Varland, Henriquez, et al group of prospects will be ready by 2024? Do they think SWR or Winder are significantly better than any of those guys? I'd say they better have at least 1 of those arms ready by 2024 whether they keep Winder and SWR or not, and I don't think SWR or Winder are any more likely than that grouping to be front of the rotation arms. Unless they have a reason to believe Castillo is any more likely to get injured than any other pitcher or his performance will drop off dramatically in the next year and a half I do that trade.

Give me Castillo, Ryan, Gray for the rest of this year and add Maeda back next year all on below market deals and I can build a pretty competitive rotation.

[cmoss84]

I'd make that trade in a heartbeat. Need someone to win in playoffs. Luis is filthy. 1 more year of control might also help persuade Correa to stay 1 more year.

[nicksaviking]

With Balazovic's, Sands' and Canterino's struggles, I just think Winder has to stay. There is just NO other depth and both Bundy and Smeltzer are on the brink of collapse. Probably past the brink actually. Archer and his short starts shouldn't be in the rotation with state of the bullpen and this trade doesn't help the relief corp.

Castillo and Mahle sound like great ideas to me, but Winder is the ONLY back up plan at the moment, and from my perspective, he should currently be the #3 starter. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I agree, I think Winder is going to be pretty important this year and beyond. I think dealing from the Kirilloff/Miranda/Winder/Ober group diminishes the gains you'd get from the trade.

i agree except I would be willing to deal Ober in a deal for a starting pitcher. To me, the other 3 would only go in a spectacular deal for us (not happening). 

[PatPfund]

At least it's ballpark (if Castillo is healthy). Though I'd look for a prospect position player to move instead of Winder, because the "pitching pipeline" has an air bubble in it (with very dubious Saints starting prospects not name Winder), and your Gray/Castillo 1 and 2 could be gone after next year.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

i agree except I would be willing to deal Ober in a deal for a starting pitcher. To me, the other 3 would only go in a spectacular deal for us (not happening). 

I'd keep Ober too if there were other options, but I'd rather give up Ober than Winder. He's not helping the team right now as it is.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

At least it's ballpark (if Castillo is healthy). Though I'd look for a prospect position player to move instead of Winder, because the "pitching pipeline" has an air bubble in it (with very dubious Saints starting prospects not name Winder), and your Gray/Castillo 1 and 2 could be gone after next year.

Unless the Reds just aren't interested, I'd probably rather include Larnach, who likely is more valuable than any of the other pieces listed.

[jorgenswest]

Take the deal.

Some would argue that it may not be enough to beat the Yankees and Astros and we should not deal the future. I think there is value in winning the central and winning a playoff series against the wild card. I think an addition to the top of the rotation helps the Twins get there. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

35 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Unless the Reds just aren't interested, I'd probably rather include Larnach, who likely is more valuable than any of the other pieces listed.

Is Larnach more valuable than Steer? I'm not sure. Larnach's bat has a higher floor but Steer is way more versatile defensively.

I think it really depends where a team is in the competitive cycle. In the case of the Reds, I might lean Steer for the upside play further down the road over Larnach's immediate impact.

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Is Larnach more valuable than Steer? I'm not sure. Larnach's bat has a higher floor but Steer is way more versatile defensively.

I think it really depends where a team is in the competitive cycle. In the case of the Reds, I might lean Steer for the upside play further down the road over Larnach's immediate impact.

If you use defense as a parameter, then trade Miranda; I am not a big fan of Larnach but the way he was regularly hitting double before he was hurt, plus he can back-up Kepler in right, makes more sense than Miranda's Little League fielding skills.

Sano's numbers af first are a goodly number better than  Miranda.

[nicksaviking]

19 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Is Larnach more valuable than Steer? I'm not sure. Larnach's bat has a higher floor but Steer is way more versatile defensively.

I think it really depends where a team is in the competitive cycle. In the case of the Reds, I might lean Steer for the upside play further down the road over Larnach's immediate impact.

The trade values site has Larnach's value 2x that of Steer.

Obviously that should be taken with a grain of salt, but when it comes to real life trades, it does always seem that MLB teams value players who have demonstrated any measure of MLB success way more than the fans do. The fans always like the unsullied prospects more.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, RpR said:

If you use defense as a parameter, then trade Miranda; I am not a big fan of Larnach but the way he was regularly hitting double before he was hurt, plus he can back-up Kepler in right, makes more sense than Miranda's Little League fielding skills.

Sano's numbers af first are a goodly number better than  Miranda.

Miranda has played fewer than 550 innings at first base in his professional career. Sano has triple that number of innings and was really bad at the position in the early going.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

The trade values site has Larnach's value 2x that of Steer.

Obviously that should be taken with a grain of salt, but when it comes to real life trades, it does always seem that MLB teams value players who have demonstrated any measure of MLB success way more than the fans do. The fans always like the unsullied prospects more.

Oh, I agree that fans overrate prospects, I'm just factoring in the timeline of the Reds and questioning whether they want a 2022 impact player or a 2024 impact player. They very well may prefer the latter, especially given Steer's defensive flexibility.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I agree that fans overrate prospects, I'm just factoring in the timeline of the Reds and questioning whether they want a 2022 impact player or a 2024 impact player. They very well may prefer the latter, especially given Steer's defensive flexibility.

I don't know, Larnach still has five years of control. I think when you get to that range, the 'can he hit at the MLB level' evaluation probably factors in more.

[RpR]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Miranda has played fewer than 550 innings at first base in his professional career. Sano has triple that number of innings and was really bad at the position in the early going.

At no time were Sano's numbers at first as bad as Miranda's are now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't know, Larnach still has five years of control. I think when you get to that range, the 'can he hit at the MLB level' evaluation probably factors in more.

True. What I find most appealing about Steer is the fact that he'll probably hit and can do it at several positions. I'm sure if you put an OF glove in his hand, he'd be just fine out there, too (though obviously would need to hit more to be an asset there).

[mike8791]

One would think that by signing Correa, Buxton and trading for Gray, this FO is serious about winning this year.  Of course, other actions,e.g., trading Rogers, not beefing up their pen in the offseason, belies this notion so who really knows what their grand plan is.  But since it is so illogical with a first place team and a huge addition like Correa  that even the Wonder Boys are not at least somewhat interested in making an added push for the playoffs by Aug. 2nd, then yes, the Twins should make this trade for Castillo - a badly needed top-of-the-rotation arm to augment a suddenly flailing rotation.  Steer is certainly expendable, given our surplus MI talent,  although I wouldn't mind switching Martin if the Reds insisted.  SWR is exactly the kind of prospect who a rebuilding team would want and while Winder has been a pleasant surprise, he might very well settle into a back-of-the-rotation arm.  I would be fine with substituting Ober for Winder and perhaps add a lower level pitching prospect if needed to seal the deal.

Any FO worth their salt would pull the trigger on a reasonable trade like this, again assuming they wanted to send the message to fans and players alike that they believe in this 2022 team.  If not, they should pack their bags and find another sucker like JP.  And good luck with that!!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

At no time were Sano's numbers at first as bad as Miranda's are now.

I mean, not really. In Sano's first 500-ish innings, he posted a -5 DRS. Miranda has a -2 DRS in about half that number of innings.

They're both bad at the position in the early going, I'm not sure either should be considered "worse" than the other.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

At no time were Sano's numbers at first as bad as Miranda's are now.

Then I guess it's a good thing Miranda is a long term 3B and not 1B. He's got 1 OAA at 3B compared to -2 at 1B. Glad he's targeted to play 3B.