Ryan Jeffers' Place Among AL Catchers

[MMMordabito]

Twins fans (myself included) have been down on Ryan Jeffers most of the season.  He's hitting below the Mendoza line.  It sometimes seems like the opposition can put runners on auto-steal.  He's even recently had some issues with passed balls.  I decided to do an exercise comparing all the primary AL catchers so far this season.  I labeled the primary catcher based on the most innings behind the plate on each team. I did make one exception and placed Adley Rutchman as the Orioles primary catcher, since he's taken over and won't be giving that position back to Chirinos unless he gets hurt.  I highlighted the top five in each category in green and the bottom five in red.  Here are the results:

Some observations:

1) Alejandro Kirk should definitely be the starter in the AS game.  Wow!

2) Cal Raleigh has been a good find for Seattle.  Note:  He's also hitting below the Mendoza line, but more than making up for that in other areas.

3) Jonah Heim had something click offensively.  I remember seeing his stats pop-up last season, and I assumed he'd be an automatic out.  He hit a homer, and I was thinking, "I can't believe he just gave up a homer to Jonah ****ing Heim.  

4) Damn Yankees! Of course, they bring in the 29 yo cast-off Trevino, and he's having a career year.

5) Salvador Perez has really fallen off on the defensive side of the ball.

Now to Jeffers:

I think the main takeaway from the exercise is that patience is in order with Jeffers.  Overall, he's middle-of-the-pack defensively.  Obviously, he needs to work on his part in controlling the running game.  Offensively, he's right at the edge of bottom-of-the-barrel and middle-of-the-pack.  We've seen flashes, but he needs to get more consistent.  However, he's just 25 with a lot of control years left, so I think he's one that we shouldn't give up on just yet.  That probably isn't what folks want to hear when hoping for a deep playoff run, but it's impossible to make everything line up perfectly unless you have the deep pockets of New York and LA.  Also, if you turn your head just right looking at the stats I gathered, you could argue that Jeffers is the most valuable catcher in the (terrible) AL Central.  (Yes, I know Grandal is hurt, but you have to play or value isn't being earned.)

Comments are welcome - including suggestions on which stats may be more valuable than what I captured.

Edit:

Here is the NL:

Dang, Realmuto! 587 innings behind the plate. Earning that paycheck!

NOTE:  Victor Caratini (Brewers) and Jorge Alfaro (Padres) actually had better bWAR than the primary catchers on the team.

 

[big dog]

Very interesting, thanks. I hope he can turn a corner here before long and heat up the bat.

I feel sorry for Mitch Garver, too. He's really having a rough year.

[Doctor Gast]

It'd be interesting also to see NL as well

[USAFChief]

Interesting. I am of the opinion long term, Jeffers needs to be replaced. We're stuck with him for 2022, in what I believe has evolved into a backup role to Sanchez.

What I'd most like to say is, I appreciate the thought and effort put into this post. 

[jorgenswest]

Catchers take time to develop. The responsibility of the game plan and knowing the opposing batters as well as the 30 some pitchers he will catch for the Twins this year is not insignificant.

Garver spent the most of his age 25 season in AA. Stuart Turner was the primary catcher. Garvercaught 60 games splitting between C and 1B. He posted an OPS of .764. 

Patience is needed.

[bean5302]

It doesn't matter whether or not other teams also have underperforming catchers. What matters is whether or not catchers are pulling their weight as position players on the team or whether a team would be better off trying to upgrade.

Jeffers isn't a good starting catcher and I don't expect he will ever be a good starter. He's on pace to provide about 1.5 WAR on a full season, which is similar to how he performed last year. That's not nearly good enough to warrant wanting to stick with him and not upgrade. 

 

[MMMordabito]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It doesn't matter whether or not other teams also have underperforming catchers. What matters is whether or not catchers are pulling their weight as position players on the team or whether a team would be better off trying to upgrade.

Jeffers isn't a good starting catcher and I don't expect he will ever be a good starter. He's on pace to provide about 1.5 WAR on a full season, which is similar to how he performed last year. That's not nearly good enough to warrant wanting to stick with him and not upgrade. 

 

I totally agree that decisions shouldn't be made based on what other teams have or don't have.  I do think that seeing what other teams have can give you an idea of what kind of competition and cost their might be to upgrade.  Then you have to weigh that cost and the priority of that position against whether or not more patience may be in order to see if player development can fill the void.  

I don't think any of the catchers with lots of green are going to be available at a reasonable cost any time soon.  Danny Jansen (Toronto's "backup") is probably a possibility for a trade seeker, but he's hurt and may cost more than many would like.

Houston currently has the worst starting catcher in the AL, so I see them as a team that will drive up the cost on acquiring someone like Contreras or Jansen.

I should probably take the time to do the NL, so that all the info is out there.

[ICTwin25]

Thanks for sharing that info...I always get worked up in the stat line instead of comparing to catchers in general. The thing that frustrates me is when he is the DH. Why not Kyle Garlick instead of him? Jeffers hasn't been DH in a ton of games (6 apparently), but the thought of someone with poor OBP and OBP playing DH drives me nuts. Leave DH for Buxton, Garlick, Miranda, Sanchez, and Kepler

[Rosterman]

I honestly feel Jeffers would be better served with msot of a season at AAA ball. But almost too late for that. He has been thrust into the game and learning by doing.

Same can be said, now, for a few more prospects...from Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober to Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda. The joy of learning at the major league leel is that the coaches and equipment is so much better.

Going back to the minors, you are allowed to try and work a little bit more, possibly even fail at times. But if your work ethic is there, it will be recognized.

In the majors, no matter how hard you try, batting against the best of the best will make you look foolish, and when fielding the majority of the hitters can hit the ball...often hard...and they also play with more analytics and are pushed to test arms, reactions and such.

Few players walk into a major league clubhouse and excel right away. 

And, someone has to make a few of the 27 outs each game.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Jeffers should be relegated to backup duties.

The Twins should be looking to upgrade at the C position now.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

1 hour ago, ICTwin25 said:

Thanks for sharing that info...I always get worked up in the stat line instead of comparing to catchers in general. The thing that frustrates me is when he is the DH. Why not Kyle Garlick instead of him? Jeffers hasn't been DH in a ton of games (6 apparently), but the thought of someone with poor OBP and OBP playing DH drives me nuts. Leave DH for Buxton, Garlick, Miranda, Sanchez, and Kepler

ANALYTICS, THAT IS WHY!

[MMMordabito]

2 hours ago, ICTwin25 said:

Thanks for sharing that info...I always get worked up in the stat line instead of comparing to catchers in general. The thing that frustrates me is when he is the DH. Why not Kyle Garlick instead of him? Jeffers hasn't been DH in a ton of games (6 apparently), but the thought of someone with poor OBP and OBP playing DH drives me nuts. Leave DH for Buxton, Garlick, Miranda, Sanchez, and Kepler

I don't think Jeffers should be DHing ... at all.

[Sean.h]

For now I’m fine a 50-50 split at catching with Sanchez. But please stop DHing them! I can see Sanchez occasionally DH against lefties based on matchups

[Danchat]

5 hours ago, big dog said:

Very interesting, thanks. I hope he can turn a corner here before long and heat up the bat.

I feel sorry for Mitch Garver, too. He's really having a rough year.

He hasn't been terrible - since moving to DH full-time on May 19th, he's hitting .767 OPS. Not great for a DH, but it's not like he's a black hole in the lineup. It does look like the Twins picked the right time to trade him while his value was high.

[DocBauer]

A lot of work done here and very appreciative of the effort. And no question there is some interesting numbers for comparison across the league. Thanks for taking the time!

I'm going to be a bit contrarion here in my opinions, but I'm OK with that. 

I've watched and listened to a load of Twins games this season, as I always have, and that includes watching Jeffers in his 3yr ML career. Recently, injury or lack of concentration IDK, Jeffers has had a few passed balls. Now, maybe I'm wrong, maybe it's just a current negative view of Jeffers because of some of the painful losses, but I honestly don't recall passed balls being an overt problem previously. Secondly, IMO, the most important parts of being a quality backstop is game calling, setting a good target, and having good communication and trust with the staff. I think he does that.

I accept he's not great at throwing out runners. No argument there. But I have to state, for the record, the pitchers holding on runners is part of the caught stealing equation as well. And the current philosophy the Twins employ, right or wrong, agree or disagree, is to worry more about the batter and just getting outs vs focusing "too much" on the opponents running game. And it makes some sense to me as teams simply don't run any longer like they used to. Still, his throwing needs work, may never be great, and I am in agreement.

I think the biggest issue is the disappointment in Jeffer's bat. If the bat is better, I doubt there is as much angst or debate as to his value or quality as a catcher.

I never bought he was going to have a great 2021 year at the plate despite his "breakout" rookie 2020 season. He was pushed to MLB pretty quickly and did well. But I expected regression in 2021. What's surprising to me, and very disappointing, has been the lack of improvement here in 2022. Frankly, I expected more. Every time he seems to get on a roll for a week, he suddenly slumps the next week. And I don't have an answer.

But while it seems he's been around for a long time, he's got the short 2020 year, 2021, and about a half season here in 2022. He's still only 25yo, has only 500AB, and he hit in college and hit in the minors. He was a bat first catcher when drafted. I feel the talent/potential is still there to be at least a decent hitting catcher with power.

I buy in to him as a solid defensive catcher, overall, with some room for improvement to be sure. And I am surprised and disappointed in his bat right now. And call me an optomist if you want, but I think the bat is going to come around over the next season or two. I just wish said transformation would begin NOW.

[MMMordabito]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It'd be interesting also to see NL as well

Done. ?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

MM - Great article and stats. Thank you.

[big dog]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

He hasn't been terrible - since moving to DH full-time on May 19th, he's hitting .767 OPS. Not great for a DH, but it's not like he's a black hole in the lineup. It does look like the Twins picked the right time to trade him while his value was high.

He's been ok at the plate, heating up a bit lately, but I meant as a catcher. I'm sure he's disappointed not to be in the field.

[Monkeypaws]

Not a knowitall with WAR, but Jeffers is the same as Garver, 0.4. Sanchez is 0.3. Rorvedt is -0.1.

 

Could be worse.

[stringer bell]

I think Jeffers would be fine in a job share with a decent defense lefty hitter. He does much better against left handed pitching and is a decent receiver. 
 

He’s taken a step of more back with his throwing and his skill as a receiver might be diminished by automatic strike zones. However, I see potential still there as an offensive player and he is relatively young. An example of a good job-share might be Tucker Barnhart a pending free agent with the Tigers. 

[bighat]

Where would Gary Sanchez place if we used him as our "primary catcher" in the graphic? His OPS is .687 which would put him in the middle of the pack, same with his OPS+ of 96. Gary could hit 20 HRs this year and drive in 70. Twins should have Sanchez in the C spot 5 days a week, and on his days off the Twins put Garlick in the DH spot. That way Gary gets more time to rest, and we only have to see Jeffers max 2x per week in the lineup.

As for Jeffers needing time to develop: when Sanchez was 25 - Jeffers' age - he'd already had two seasons of hitting 20+ HRs and been to an All-Star game.

 

[wabene]

Ooo la la nice spreadsheets!

He did throw out a runner this week albeit with help from a great tag. My gripe is he doesn't seem to be improving the bat. He is serviceable. I'll bet that with robo umps he will lose his framing advantage, but gain in the run game. A big dude like that not having to get up of the ground will help. 

[umterp23]

some of the optics on Jeffers from throwing out runners or framing/passed ball issues, we have to look at the catching position they seem to employ.  6' 4" 240lb flexibility gets an A+ from me on who he sets up.  I had a chance to see him play a few games in college and his setup was more traditional, both feet under your shoulders so to speak and both lateral and vertical movement was optimal.  Now, not so much.  So does that philosophy change with coaching staff?

Hitting to me is repetition, day in day out.  He had two really good hot streaks for about 7-8 games hitting over .300 in those stretches, so it is possible.  One Sanchez due to injury bug and the was the stretch of like 20 games in 10 days (kidding of course) but not many off days to get rest.  Manager philosophy of play a day rest a day, play a day, scheduled off day, rest day, play again doesn't help anyone on the team.  You ride a hot streak till with anyone who is hitting regardless of position. What I have always liked about Jeffers is his patience at the plate.  in '20 most of his hits came with 2 strikes on him. '21 still patient and would get the one pitch he wanted to barrel up and fouled it off.  '22 seems to be playing out the same way.  

People who believe Sanchez is the #1 catcher isn't on paper hands down better in all facets to warrant #1 status.  10 more games played, barely above .200 vs Jeffers slightly under .200.  More hits, more doubles, more HR' by 4, more RBI's, more K's by almost 2O than Jeffers.  OBP difference of .04, SLG difference of .7 and OPS .7. They way people rave about Sanchez made it sound like he was twice as good as Jeffers.  I don't see it. What is telling to me is that certain guys love throwing to Jeffers vs Sanchez.  Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, the rotation 1 and 2's on paper stand out to me.

Do we want better all around play from him, sure do.  I'm pretty sure he does as well.  25 years young.  They made the Garver move and low and behold Garver is permanent DH for Rangers and listed 3rd on depth chart at catcher position.  Should we have kept Garver on roster as our DH, hindsight 20-20 comes into play.  

 

[farmerguychris]

After being counted on to replace Garver with possibly giving us some upside, I think Jeffers have proven to be the definition of very average.  Good pitch framer, but what else does he give us?  A little power, poor at throwing out runners, etc.  We've been spoiled with Mauer and then Garver.  Hope we can find someone with a little more upside very soon.

[tony&rodney]

The post, well done, tells us what is already common knowledge - the Twins are hurting with their catchers. Maybe Contreras is someone to pursue this coming offseason.

[CRF]

Fantastic research! As to Jeffers...he's an ok back up C, nothing more. What little, and very occasional, pop at the plate he has, isn't worth playing him as much as Rocco does You just can't keep running him out there as the starting C. To have both Jeffers and Sanchez in the line up together, with one as the DH...is lunacy. 

[KirbyDome89]

23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It doesn't matter whether or not other teams also have underperforming catchers. What matters is whether or not catchers are pulling their weight as position players on the team or whether a team would be better off trying to upgrade.

Jeffers isn't a good starting catcher and I don't expect he will ever be a good starter. He's on pace to provide about 1.5 WAR on a full season, which is similar to how he performed last year. That's not nearly good enough to warrant wanting to stick with him and not upgrade. 

 

I agree that Jeffers needs to pull his weight relative to this team, but if we're upgrading, and the C position is a wasteland offensively, where are you finding the upgrade, and does the hypothetical production boost justify the cost for said upgrade?  

[Mike Sixel]

On 7/7/2022 at 12:51 PM, bean5302 said:

It doesn't matter whether or not other teams also have underperforming catchers. What matters is whether or not catchers are pulling their weight as position players on the team or whether a team would be better off trying to upgrade.

Jeffers isn't a good starting catcher and I don't expect he will ever be a good starter. He's on pace to provide about 1.5 WAR on a full season, which is similar to how he performed last year. That's not nearly good enough to warrant wanting to stick with him and not upgrade. 

 

Given that half the league isn't all that good at catcher, how, exactly, should the Twins upgrade? The fact that the many of the rest of the teams have issues is evidence that there just aren't that many GOOD catchers on the planet. So, yes, it does matter. It is about realism and what is out there. 

[stringer bell]

9 hours ago, bighat said:

Where would Gary Sanchez place if we used him as our "primary catcher" in the graphic? His OPS is .687 which would put him in the middle of the pack, same with his OPS+ of 96. Gary could hit 20 HRs this year and drive in 70. Twins should have Sanchez in the C spot 5 days a week, and on his days off the Twins put Garlick in the DH spot. That way Gary gets more time to rest, and we only have to see Jeffers max 2x per week in the lineup.

As for Jeffers needing time to develop: when Sanchez was 25 - Jeffers' age - he'd already had two seasons of hitting 20+ HRs and been to an All-Star game.

 

It's pretty much a job share between the two and unless one or the other separates from the other, I presume it will continue for the year. Sanchez isn't significantly better than Jeffers and he's a pending free agent, who likely will be playing for someone else next year.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Given that half the league isn't all that good at catcher, how, exactly, should the Twins upgrade? The fact that the many of the rest of the teams have issues is evidence that there just aren't that many GOOD catchers on the planet. So, yes, it does matter. It is about realism and what is out there. 

The same way every team looks to upgrade. They look for available talent internally and externally, and if they can acquire it for a reasonable cost, they obtain it. Looking to upgrade is not some sort of requirement to upgrade. 

Side note, there are a dozen catchers significantly better than Jeffers on other teams' rosters. It's not like Jeffers is above average, even now when good catchers seem to be at a premium.