Article: MIN 9, TB 7: Odorizzi Shines In Tampa Return

[Tom Froemming]

The American League leader in ERA, Jake Odorizzi, was at it again today, only this time he was facing his former team. Odorizzi, who spent five years pitching in Tampa, helped pitch the Twins to victory by providing a quality start in his first start back at the Trop.Box Score

Odorizzi: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 68.5% strikes (74 of 108 pitches)

Home Runs: Schoop (11)

Multi-Hit Games: Sano (3-for-3, 2 2B, BB), Polanco (2-for-4), Cron (2-for-4, 2B), Buxton (2-for-4, 2B)

WPA of +0.1: Odorizzi .220, Buxton .134, Sano .133, Garver .119

WPA of -0.1: Harper -.116

Download attachment: Win62.png

(chart via FanGraphs)

 

Quality Start for Odorizzi

Odorizzi looked great today even though his pitch count was a bit high. He ended up with six strong innings and averaged 18 pitches per inning for a total of 108 pitches. For reference, an average of 15 or less per inning is ideal. This was his third start with at least nine strikeouts this season.

 

Gettin’ Saucy

Mitch Garver, aka Garv Sauce, was back in the lineup today for the first time since suffering a high ankle sprain on May 14. He got an early test on his sprained ankle when he led off the game with a soft ground ball hit to the infield. Garver appeared to be fully recovered as he sprinted down the line and was safe thanks to an error by the third baseman.

 

We didn’t have to wait very long for Mitch to impact the game with his bat the way he was doing so consistently before the injury. In his second at-bat there were runners on second and third with one out. Mitch laced an RBI single to left, scoring Miguel Sano from third. Hitting the ball is generally a good thing but in this case the ball was too hard and Byron Buxton was unable to score. Luckily for the Twins, they had the league's best hitter in Jorge Polanco up next and he drove in Buxton with a sac fly, giving the Twins an early 2-0 lead.

 

26 and Counting

Entering today’s contest, the Twins had set a franchise record for 25 consecutive games scoring at least three runs. In the fourth inning they made it 26 consecutive games. Sano hit a double to left field scoring Marwin Gonzalez. It could have been a better inning had Sano not been thrown out trying to advance to third.

 

Feeling Like a Million Bux

Byron Buxton continues to emerge as the superstar he was projected to be while rising through the minor league system. His elite defense and improved hitting impacted the game early on.

 

In the third inning he hit an opposite field double which advanced Sano to third and set the table for Garver and Polanco to drive in the first two runs of the game. In the bottom of the same inning he once again reminded us how elite he is in center field — not that any of us needed reminding, however.

 

With a runner on first and one out in the inning Buxton made a spectacular catch sprinting full speed and crashing into the wall. He quickly spun around and fired a 97 mph strike the length of a football field to double up the runner at first and end the inning.

 

 

 

Scoring Runs is Contagious

The top of the fifth inning was yet another strong inning for the Twins offense. Buxton got it started when he singled, stole second and advanced to third on a throwing error from the Rays first baseman. He later scored on a squeeze bunt from Polanco giving the Twins a 3-0 lead.

 

The Twins would then load up the bases when Garver was hit by a pitch and Rosario drew a walk. There were ducks on the pond when C.J. Cron stepped up to hit with the bases loaded and two outs. Cron got a pitch to hit and did just that when he roped a bases-clearing double to left field and broke the game open, giving the Twins a 7-0 lead.

 

Jonathan Schoop provided two very key insurance runs in the eight when he blasted a two-out, two-run home run to left field giving the Twins a 9-5 lead.

 

Bullpen Struggles

The game was turned over to the bullpen with a seven run lead but that changed quickly. Matt Magill loaded the bases and the Rays went on to score five runs in the seventh. They tacked on another two runs in the eight with a two-run home run off Blake Parker.

 

Postgame With Garver

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Pen62.png

Next Game

Tue at CLE, 6:10 pm CT (Smeltzer-Bieber)

 

Last Game

MIN 6, TB 2: Marwin Carries May Success Into June, Helps Lead Twins Over Rays

 

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[Kelly Vance]

who says our BP is suspect?

[h2oface]

Odorizzi. Can this last all the way through the World Series rematch with the Dodgers?

 

Magill.... sigh.

 

And to think.......Duffey was ready!

 

Run differential for series..... -3.

Record? 3-1

Run Differential. One of those somewhat meaningless stats, sometimes. 

A glamour stat.

 

In the end, only one stat matters - the big W

 

[h2oface]

After the Magill meltdown, Harper's 2/3 inherited runners scored (and he only needed one out) is hardly noticed in the end... but it is part of the "makeup" coming off the pen. True, very quirky play (and scorekeeper's rulings have been suspect for years)..... but a ball in play comes off of the pitch, his pitch, and ........... they all count.

[jmlease1]

3 out of 4 from the Rays? Its going to get harder and harder for the skeptics to claim this team isnt quality and/or will fall apart soon...

 

That Polanco extension sure looks smart these days.

 

[MNT1996]

Also sounds like Cruz had a good couple of rehab games and is ready to rejoin the club. Looks like we might be greeting Cleveland with our (finally) all healthy lineup and Smeltzer on the mound. Gonna be a fun series.

[rdehring]

Well that was fun, then nail biting, then fun again!  Guess we needed every one of those runs. 

 

104 games left and 60 wins will get us 100.  Don't want to bother with the math, but that is less than .600 winning percentage, or almost a hundred points less than they have been winning the first 2+ months.  

 

Can Smeltzer repeat his first start?  I really, really, really want to take 2 of 3 from the Tribe.

[PDX Twin]

 

Harper's 2/3 inherited runners scored 

 

Yup, gotta hate the IRS!

[jtkoupal]

Some numbers to chew on for you all this evening: 

 

-The Twins won their 40th game today. Last year, they had 30 more losses under their belt when they won their 40th game. 

-The Twins have a magic number of 93 with 104 games remaining in the season.

-If the Twins play .500 over the last 104 games, they would finish with 92 wins. The Indians or White Sox would need to go 63-40 (.612) to catch up.

-The Twins have 17 games left with Kansas City, 13 with Detroit, and 16 with Cleveland and Chicago. They're probably doing better than 92 wins.

-FiveThirtyEight has assigned a probability of 97% of the Twins making the playoffs, 93% of them winning the division. They project them to finish with 101 wins and with a run differential of +191. They have the 5th highest team rating, trailing only HOU, LAD, NYY, BOS.

 

Thanks guys, Go Twins!

[ScooterDance]

Feels like a 100 win team to me

[Dman]

Call me a worry wart but after we lost that first game big to Tampa I was worried the wheels might come off.  I thought Tampa's pitching would slow our offense down and I felt they had the better starting pitching staff going into this series and the better bullpen. 

 

Taking three out of four from them really makes me feel better about this team.  It was nice to see our offense put lot's of pressure on their pitchers and for the most part continue to do damage all series long. Even going up against good pitching this offense can produce.  

 

Also I felt the team played really good defense and did not give Tampa extra outs.  At any rate I am really, really happy they took this series to help take some of the worry out of me.

Edited June 2, 2019 by Dman

[Thegrin]

Loved the game.

Hated the BP. 

Now I'm going to worry. 

[D.C Twins]

And Anotha One...

[Aerodeliria]

That was really a telltale series. Tampa is more than decent and to take three of four was impressive. Odorizzi continues to amaze. He should be in the all star conversation, even though his name was not even mentioned in the article I looked at. That's outrageous!

 

Very good hitting in high-leverage situations in this series, which is a very good sign. BTW, I loved the Polanco bunt with a runner on third. Fantastic call (or decision if he decided on his own).

 

Buxton has made plenty of spectacular catches, but I wouldn't say that was one of them. The throw was magnificent however. His hitting in this series is what impressed me--including the sacrifice bunt in Game 2.

 

The defense has been generally good, but for a second time over the past couple of weeks in a situation with runners on base and Harper on the mound. He gets a ground ball kicked around the infield. You can blame Harper, but Harper's job is primarily to get ground ball outs, so the infielders have to be on their toes. He did his job, but the infield did not. Nevertheless, to the scorers it is -.116 WPA because it looks like a rocket and Harper gets tagged with 2 of 3 IRS. That's life, but it also speaks to the reality that our vaunted defense has lapses.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Twins play on the road against one of the top teams in the AL and take 3 of 4. Yes, the BP had a couple of bad games. No doubt. But all joking aside, I'm not hitting a panic button after these 4 games.

[Monkeypaws]

There was talk recently of the Baldelli effect, keeping the Twins loose and rested. 

 

I think Buxton is the poster child for this - he looks so relaxed and appears to be having lots of fun out there, and the team is reaping the benefits.

 

40-18??!!

[the_brute_squad]

Great play by Buxton but Cron's deke on the play shouldn't be overlooked.

Today's bullpen performance just added a million dollars to the Kimbrell offer.

[denarded]

I hope this isn't our highwater mark.  Let's knock the snot out of Cleveland and Detroit and then set up post season matchups

[terrydactyls]

Yesterday was Sunday, June 2 and it was the 58th game of the year.  The Twins are now 36%  of the way through the season.  Out of 59 years, the current team ranks 48th on the all-time list of Twins' home runs in one season and are on a pace to hit 304 home runs this season.

[IndianaTwin]

Tampa Bay is 35-22, and what do you bet that over on Rays Daily, they are saying, “Yeah, but we can’t beat the good teams like the Twins.” Think about how that sounds.

[Jham]

Regarding the pitch count, Odo was facing a really good team that doesn't give away at bats and makes the pitcher work. He did great.

 

I don't know what Tampa was thinking cutting CJ Crohn, but thanks. It's sort of working for them, but they gave away an asset in a competitive year when they'll likely be a buyer, all for limited salary relief.

 

For whatever reason, I'm not that worried about Magill and Parker. Blow outs either way make it tough for relievers who rely on adrenaline to focus in. Sometimes they might even try some new stuff.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Regarding the pitch count, Odo was facing a really good team that doesn't give away at bats and makes the pitcher work. He did great.

I don't know what Tampa was thinking cutting CJ Crohn, but thanks. It's sort of working for them, but they gave away an asset in a competitive year when they'll likely be a buyer, all for limited salary relief.

For whatever reason, I'm not that worried about Magill and Parker. Blow outs either way make it tough for relievers who rely on adrenaline to focus in. Sometimes they might even try some new stuff.

not quite sure I agree. That adrenaline should have kicked in during the 7th when they spotted them 5 runs. 

 

You should be worried about the pen. It's not that good. 

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Duffey and Morin were fresh, and the Twins had a seven run lead. Not sure why Rocco went with Magill, but it backfired tremendously. Thankfully the Twins have a day off tomorrow, but that wasn't ideal.

 

The Twins can't get too over their skis, because it's still the first week of June, but there's no reason not to get stricter about a bullpen rotation. Let's get guys the rest they need, even if that means putting Tyler Duffey in a tough spot and seeing if he can sink or swim.

[jmlease1]

Also, I totally agree with Bert: time to blow the Trop up! God, that stadium is a hole. Worst stadiums in MLB have to be Tampa and Oakland, right? I doubt anything else is even close.

[USAFChief]

 

Also, I totally agree with Bert: time to blow the Trop up! God, that stadium is a hole. Worst stadiums in MLB have to be Tampa and Oakland, right? I doubt anything else is even close.

Awful stadium, but we have no room to criticize...we had the Metrodome. Also awful.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Awful stadium, but we have no room to criticize...we had the Metrodome. Also awful.

Except the Metrodome wasn’t built in the late 80s when everyone else in baseball was returning to open-air, baseball-specific stadiums.

 

And then there’s the location of the Trop, which is one of the biggest reasons Tampa has such awful attendance.

 

At least the A’s have the excuse that their stadium is old and that the Raiders spent two decades systematically making the stadium worse for baseball viewing.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Awful stadium, but we have no room to criticize...we had the Metrodome. Also awful.

 

Not sure if you've heard or not, but apparently we haven't played in the Metrodome in a decade.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Odorizzi. Can this last all the way through the World Series rematch with the Dodgers?

 

Magill.... sigh.

 

And to think.......Duffey was ready!

 

Run differential for series..... -3.

Record? 3-1

Run Differential. One of those somewhat meaningless stats, sometimes. 

A glamour stat.

 

In the end, only one stat matters - the big W

 

I think in one game samples, run differential is an extremely important stat.