The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins’ Offseason: What’s the Payroll?

Tom Pohlad has spent much of 2026 talking about the need for the Twins to invest more heavily in the roster. That message became even clearer at the end of the season, when Pohlad said the organization intends to “meaningfully invest” in the team and that a roughly $100-million payroll is not enough to consistently compete for the postseason.

That's an important change in tone from the previous two offseasons. It also creates an important question. How much is “meaningfully”? The answer will determine whether Jeremy Zoll can pursue multiple upgrades or whether the Twins will have to choose carefully where to allocate their resources. Minnesota has obvious needs at catcher, first base and in the bullpen, while the organization would also benefit from adding depth elsewhere. There is room for improvement. There is not, however, an unlimited amount of room.

FanGraphs's RosterResource currently puts the Twins' early 2027 payroll projection around $124 million. It includes many of the team's projected commitments, arbitration salaries, younger players and other roster costs that need to be accounted for. They can create quite a bit more flexibility by non-tendering or trading certain players, but if they held to the status quo, that would be their starting point.

A $140-million payroll would provide roughly $16 million beyond that baseline. A $150-million payroll would create approximately $26 million. Getting all the way back to the neighborhood of the Twins' 2023 payroll, around $158 million, would provide significantly more flexibility.

None of those figures has been announced by the organization. That's why this is one of the seven biggest decisions of the offseason. Before the Twins can decide who to sign, they need to know how much they are willing to spend—roughly, at least. One interesting takeaway from the team's end-of-season press conference was that whereas the Pohlads had often held the baseball operations department to a strict figure in the past, they might not have an ironclad budget, going forward. Instead, Zoll might be able to pitch expansions of the payroll to meet either a pressing need or an enticing opportunity.

The Pros of Spending Big

The most obvious benefit of an increased payroll is also the easiest one for fans to understand. The Twins need better players and more depth. Minnesota finished 2026 at 77-85 and missed the postseason for the third consecutive season. The organization believes there is a young core worth building around, including Walker Jenkins, Luke Keaschall, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Brooks Lee. Adding significant outside talent would capitalize on those players being paid very low salaries at this early juncture of their careers, by making the team less dependent on them.

Pohlad has repeatedly said that being merely competitive is no longer the standard. The goal is to build a team capable of consistently reaching the postseason and (eventually) competing for a championship. That requires resources. The 2026 trade deadline provided a preview of what that could look like. Minnesota took on additional salary to acquire A.J. Minter, Dean Kremer and Jeff Hoffman.

A larger payroll gives Zoll more options. The Twins don't have to solve every problem through free agency. They could use money to retain Ryan Jeffers, and knowing there's some room in the budget makes it easier to envision giving him a qualifying offer. Trades for major contributors also get easier when you can absorb the salary attached to them. More financial flexibility means the front office can take more chances and explore more broadly.

The Cons of Spending Big

Spending more money is not automatically the same thing as building a better roster. That's the difficult part of this equation. The Twins already have significant money committed to the 2027 roster. Pablo López is set to make $21.75 million. Byron Buxton is owed $15 million. Hoffman will make $11 million, though the Twins are only on the hook for $7.25 million of that. Victor Caratini is owed $6.5 million. The Twins also pay $10 million to Houston again, as part of the Carlos Correa trade.

Then come the arbitration cases. Ten players are currently projected to earn a combined $47.3 million through arbitration. Joe Ryan is projected at $9.6 million, followed by Bailey Ober at $6.9 million, Kremer at $6.5 million and Trevor Larnach at $6.3 million. Ober and Larnach, in particular, feel likely to be moved unless they can be signed for less than those projections, but as the winter begins, they're part of the budgetary picture.

When pressed about the possibility of signing a star to fit into the firmament the team has built, however, Zoll struck a balanced note. He emphasized that the team also has to think about the future when weighing possible moves, rather than focusing solely on getting back to the postseason as soon as possible. That's a reminder that even in an organization committed to spending more, spending big carries risks that must be considered.

The Bottom Line

The Twins have spent the past two seasons showing what happens when the payroll leaves little margin for error. Now, Tom Pohlad is promising something different. That's encouraging, but the next step is putting a number behind the words.

A projected baseline around $124 million means the Twins aren't starting with a completely empty payroll ledger. But it also means that a $140-million payroll wouldn't suddenly turn Minnesota into a contender. Much of that money would already be committed to players the organization expects to have on the roster. The difference between $140 million and $160 million could determine the type of offseason Zoll can have.

That makes the payroll decision about much more than money. It will tell us how serious the Twins are about changing the direction of the organization. Pohlad has said the goal is no longer simply to be competitive. He wants the postseason to become an expectation. The Twins need to show what that expectation is worth.

What are your expectations for Minnesota’s spending this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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