Article: MIN 9, HOU 5: Bats Thrive, Pitching Survives

[John Bonnes]

Half the game was a party. The other half was torture. But the underdog Twins won an important game versus the Astros on Monday night thanks to a free-wheeling offense, nervy pitching from some unlikely names and some stellar defense.Box Score

Odorizzi: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 63% strikes

Home Runs: Castro (1), Polanco (4)

Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (4-5, 2B, HR), Cruz (2-5, both infield hits)

WPA of +0.1: Odorizzi (.157), Cron (.146), Polanco (.149), Kepler (.112)

WPA of -0.1: none

 

Download attachment: 2019-04-22 WPA Chart.JPG

(chart via FanGraphs)

 

Lowest High-Hanging Fruit

This is the game in this series that the Twins really needed. On Tuesday they’ll face Wade Miley (LHP, 3.32 ERA) and on Wednesday Justin Verlander (3.00 ERA, 38K). Tonight they faced Brad Peacock, who is far from a pushover, but is Houston's fifth starter and hadn’t pitched as a starter in two weeks.

 

But that doesn’t mean it was low-hanging fruit. The Astros were still favored. Vegas gave them a 60% chance of winning.

 

Survive and Advance

Given the offense was seeing the back of the Astros' rotation, the Twins biggest challenge was keeping the Astros' lineup relatively in check for nine innings. Twins starting pitching hasn’t had a lot of success getting much past the fifth inning, even with good starts.

 

Plus, after playing (and winning) three games over the last two days, the Twins two best relievers were probably unavailable. Taylor Rogers threw 45 pitches Saturday and Sunday, and Trevor Hildenberger threw 38, so it was unlikely either was going to be used except in the direst of emergencies.

 

Odorizzi's performance gave him the highest Win Probability Added (WPA) score, and it probably underplays just how valuable he was. He navigated the Astros lineup almost completely three times. You might remember that navigating a lineup three times was not Odorizzi’s strong suit last year: opponents had a 1.159 OPS against him when facing him a third time. This time he gutted his way through 5 2/3 IP, giving up just two runs. Trevor May, who also threw 20 pitches yesterday, got the last out of the sixth.

 

That left three fairly high-leverage innings to navigate and four available bullpen arms: RHP (and closer) Blake Parker, RHP Ryne Harper, RHP Tyler Duffey and LHP Adalberto Mejia. Manager Rocco Baldelli chose Harper for the seventh inning, Mejia for the eighth and Parker for the ninth. Harper gave up a three-run home run on a questionable pitch choice, but the rest of the trio held. The Twins had the game they needed, pieced together from some unlikely names.

 

Defensive Play Of The Game

In the bottom of the fourth, with the Twins leading 3-1, Odorizzi escaped a possible big inning thanks to an Eddie Rosario to Jonathan Schoop to Jason Catro relay that cut down Josh Reddick at the plate. Enjoy:

 

 

More Offense

The firepower that the Twins displayed in Baltimore continued in Houston, with a couple of noteworthy rebounds. Jorge Polanco, after a mini-slump in Baltimore and a rough first at-bat, had another monster game. Seriously, he has a .776 slugging percentage. That's obscene. Jason Castro, who entered the game hitting .143, left the game with an .823 OPS and hit his first home run this year. And Nelson Cruz beat out two infield singles that left Twins announcer Dick Bremer joking about the imminent apocalypse. Watching the top half of the innings was legitimately fun all night.

 

Alternately, the bottom half was legitimately nerve-racking, but a middle-of-the-rotation starter and some middle relief arms did anything but a middling job. The Twins stole a game in Houston while simultaneously resting some of their more valuable bullpen arms. That can only help as they face even more difficult pitching the next two nights.

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days. It looks like the only bullpen arm who might be held back is Trevor May:

 

Download attachment: 2019-04-22 Bullpen.JPG

 

Next Three Games

Tue at HOU, 7:10 pm CT (Pineda-Miley)

Wed at HOU, 7:10 pm CT (TBD-Verlander)

Fri vs BLT, 7:10 pm CT (Berrios?-Cobb?)

 

Last Game

MIN 4, BAL 3: Gibby Good, Hildy Holds, Rogers Saves the Sweep

 

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[Aerodeliria]

It seems like a number of folks are questioning that pitch choice and location to Correa by Harper. Am I correct in assuming it was the fastball?

[Otwins]

It was a fastball on the inside part of the plate after he did not look good against the curveballs

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Rosario to Schoop to Castro.... (even though Bert/Dick had the initial call to Polanco..(fart broadcast call...age issues here?).

 

The key play to Twins win......22April2019

 

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Dick and Bert are......so GrandPa MLB?

Twins MLB corporate needs to address......

Your future ticket holders are 19-35...not 60+?

Dave Flemming...SF KNBR....get!?

 

 

[sloopjont]

Lasorda_This_Out wrote: Rosario to Schoop to Castro.... (even though Bert/Dick had the initial call to Polanco..(fart broadcast call...age issues here?).

 

Looked like the relay was supposed to go to Polanco but Rosario overshot him.  Luckily Schoop was backing up the play and caught his throw and relayed to home.  I'd have to give Dick a break on this one; he knew who was supposed to get the relay and likely, in the heat of the moment, didn't immediately recognize the unintended relay man.

[MMMordabito]

We're talkin' baseball
Berrios and Polanco
Talkin' baseball
Eddie, Buck and Garver
Hildy, May and Rogers comin' through
They knew 'em all from 'kato to Duluth
La Tortuga, Kepler, Cron and Cruz

[bighat]

 

Great win. Harper was going to get touched up at some point - he's not a "high leverage" guy and this is exactly why. I guess what I'm saying is, it'd bother me a lot more if we lost. Nice to have a game where the Twins could use both Mejia and Harper and get some other guys some rest - against the Astros, no less!

 

That defensive play by Rosario/Schoop was huge. Rosie and Polanco are playing just great and this team is fun to watch right now. Let's go steal one tonight!

 

 

 

Dick and Bert are......so GrandPa MLB?

Twins MLB corporate needs to address......

Your future ticket holders are 19-35...not 60+?

Dave Flemming...SF KNBR....get!?

 

So you're proposing something more like...this? Gotta keep those hip happenin' kids interested:

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/eb9252.jpg

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I love it... Now get one more and I'll be quite happy about this series.

[bunt_vs_the_shift]

How 'bout some love for Polanco? He doesn't wear his emotions on his sleeve, which is probably why it seems like he can get overlooked, but he's just flat out smooth and he can get Rosario-like hot at the plate. I always felt like he was the key guy a couple years ago when we went on our run and chased down the wildcard and also a big part of what was missing last year when he got suspended. But PEDs aside (and yes, I realize that may factor into his public image), I just love how he just consistently makes plays day in and day out and he's the same age as Buxton (25)!

[rdehring]

Coming into this series, I would have been elated if the Twins could get one win.  OK, they got it.  Hopefully, they will get a second win and take the series.  This team just might be for real, let's get on board for an exciting summer of baseball.

[Old Twins Cap]

Polanco has huge eyes, if I can say it like that.

 

Baseball players need to see really small things, really big things, and everything in between.

 

I bet he sees in the dark.

[USAFChief]

 

Lasorda_This_Out wrote: Rosario to Schoop to Castro.... (even though Bert/Dick had the initial call to Polanco..(fart broadcast call...age issues here?).

 

Looked like the relay was supposed to go to Polanco but Rosario overshot him.  Luckily Schoop was backing up the play and caught his throw and relayed to home.  I'd have to give Dick a break on this one; he knew who was supposed to get the relay and likely, in the heat of the moment, didn't immediately recognize the unintended relay man.

That's not luck, that's how relays on those type of plays work. Polanco and Schoop were lined up between Rosario and the plate (with Gonzalez and Cron also in line, but spaced out closer to the plate) on purpose. Rosario throws it on line, hard and low, and one of them will be in position to accept the throw (and relay if appropriate) no matter how far Rosario throws it. 

[Dman]

Even though we had the early lead I kind of figured that Houston would reel the Twins in by taking advantage of our bullpen.  After Harper gave up the home run I said to myself here we go, even after scoring a bunch of runs Houston will still win this game.  

 

My negativity must have been negated though as we hung on to win. Would be awesome to steal another game but I am very happy to get at least one win in Houston where they are very tough to beat.

Edited April 23, 2019 by Dman

[USAFChief]

Really nice win, but that bullpen...yeesh.

 

I don't see any way the current bullpen holds up through a long season.

[jorgenswest]

One game at a time...

 

The Twins are getting contributions from all 25. Big inning from Mejia.

[bighat]

The egg the Twins laid against Toronto seems like a million years ago right now. This team is 13-7, 1.5 games ahead in the division.

 

8-3 on the road

5-4 at home

 

[dbminn]

 

One game at a time...

The Twins are getting contributions from all 25. Big inning from Mejia.

 

Mejia looks like he's getting more comfortable with airing it out. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Two thousandths of a percentage point from having the best record in all of major league baseball.  One day at a time. That's why today is called the "present". It is a gift.

[wsnydes]

 

The Twins are getting contributions from all 25. 

I think this point is getting overlooked a bit so far this season. At least as it pertains to the position players. I think Rocco is doing a good job of getting everyone pretty regular playing time, especially considering the odd scheduling so far. Hopefully when the schedule normalizes he doesn't continue with the hockey line change approach, but I do like that he's getting guys AB's with regularity. That should pay dividends when the inevitable injury bug starts biting.

 

It does help that the bench players are able to play multiple positions. That hasn't been the case in recent seasons, but I think Rocco is doing pretty well with what he's got.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Nice to steal one. A win tonight and we'll be "playing with house money" against Verlander in that bullpen game on Wednesday.

[TFRazor]

At what point do teams stop pitching to Polanco? He's hitting everything right now

[ashbury]

That's not luck, that's how relays on those type of plays work.

Agreed.

 

I think there was considerable luck in the way the carom came basically straight to Rosario. He chose a reasonable spot to be at, but the ball could have gone in a variety of other directions.

[USAFChief]

 

Agreed.

 

I think there was considerable luck in the way the carom came basically straight to Rosario. He chose a reasonable spot to be at, but the ball could have gone in a variety of other directions.

Concur.

 

Same thing happened, only not in the Twins favor, when Cron got thrown out at the plate to end the last Toronto game. Ball came out of the corner on a room service hop to the left fielder.

[USAFChief]

 

At what point do teams stop pitching to Polanco? He's hitting everything right now

At the point where Cruz isn't the next hitter in the lineup, with Rosario to follow.

[Doomtints]

Removing Odorizzi to protect the lead and then handing the ball to Harper to cough up three runs is a strange management style.

[Number3]

 

Removing Odorizzi to protect the lead and then handing the ball to Harper to cough up three runs is a strange management style.

Right...Odorizzi always completes games and Ron "I know nothing about pitching" Gardenhire or Molitor never would have done that.

I do think that Odorizzi is a true pro who just takes the ball every time its his turn and I would bet never complains or has to be "related to" in any way. Is he lights out every time? Of course not. But I would take him and his attitude and reliability on any staff. The game is based on outscoring the opposition and low scoring, pitching dominated games are the rarity. Don't waste your best relievers when you have a big lead.

Edited April 23, 2019 by Number3

[Doomtints]

 

Right...Odorizzi always completes games and Ron "I know nothing about pitching" Gardenhire or Molitor never would have done that.

I do think that Odorizzi is a true pro who just takes the ball every time its his turn and I would bet never complains or has to be "related to" in any way. Is he lights out every time? Of course not. But I would take him and his attitude and reliability on any staff. The game is based on outscoring the opposition and low scoring, pitching dominated games are the rarity. Don't waste your best relievers when you have a big lead.

 

With one guy on base, two outs, and a 4 run lead, I'd leave Odorizzi in there -- especially when the bullpen being overused. There would be plenty of time to pull him later and protect the lead if things went south.

 

And then May comes in ... just to get one out?

 

Harper was clearly struggling. A walk, three hits, and a home run. There was no reason to leave him out there for a full inning.

 

This game was only close because of Baldelli.

[jmlease1]

Schoop made a really nice play after the error on Gonzalez in the 7th (which was a really tough play in the first place) chasing down the carom and nearly nailing Springer at 2B. Really heads up play, even if he didn't get the out.

 

Am I crazy or does Trevor May just not really look right out there? His command and control look out of whack, and I'm wondering if it's a confidence issue. Kinda feels like he needed another 2 weeks of spring training, just throwing at guys. Hope he pulls out of it, because he has the ability to be a terrific reliever.

 

That contract extension for Polanco just keeps looking better all the time. I know he's not going to hit .420, I know he's going to get into a slump at some point. I know he's probably going to drive me crazy by air-mailing a couple of relatively easy throws, but I still love the guy.

[jkcarew]

And all in a crisp 3 1/2 hours. And that with a mercifully fast 9th.

 

Odorizzi has the rare ability to slow a game down more the better he pitches...by staying in the game and continuing to pitch in his excruciatingly painful style. Then there’s the bullpen. It’s amazing the defense is playing as well as they are.