The Twins Keep Finding Pitching Talent. Why Can't They Unlock It?

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of David Frerker-Imagn Images

When Derek Falvey took over the Twins' front office 10 years ago, there was a major emphasis on overhauling the team's pitching, from prospect development to MLB talent evaluation and coaching. 

The Twins had fallen into a dark place, with 90+ losses in five of six seasons. During that span, run prevention was a primary weakness, with their 4.61 ERA ranking as worst in MLB outside of Colorado. Minnesota's strikeout rate ranked 30th out of 30.

Falvey was ultimately chosen to succeed Terry Ryan in large part because of his track record for pitching development. This was known be a key focus as soon as he took over. And to some extent, he delivered. The Twins have moved from the bottom to the middle of the pack in key stats like ERA, WAR and K-rate. The 2023 season featured of the best Minnesota staffs in memory, built and cultivated by Falvey and his assistant GM Jeremy Zoll, among others. 

In the past few seasons, though, it feels like momentum has stalled out. This owes to many factors, injuries included, but the dismissal of Pete Maki as pitching coach points to another issue: failure of the field staff to capitalize on upside and potential recognized by Falvey's front office. 

I'll give you one example that feels especially relevant right now. On Wednesday night, Trevor Megill closed out Game 4 of the NLDS and sent the Milwaukee Brewers back to the league championship series. It was business as usual for Megill, who has solidified himself as a trusted closer for the 103-win Brew Crew. 

As you may recall, the Twins had him for a minute. He pitched to a 4.80 ERA in 45 innings for Minnesota back in 2022, and was cut in spring training of 2023 before latching on with Milwaukee, where he almost immediately established himself as a quality reliever. In four years since, Megill has posted a 2.80 ERA and 2.37 FIP with 81 saves across 190 innings. He was an All-Star in 2025.

I distinctly remember watching Megill pitch in spring training and marveling at the caliber of his arsenal, and the potential for dominance from his intimidating 6-foot-8 frame. It was obvious why the front office targeted him on a minor-league deal, and having those types of bets pay off is critical to success for a mid-market club. The Twins' coaching staff just couldn't make it work ... though the Brewers wasted little time doing so.

 

A similar story played out around the same time with Jeff Hoffman, another timely case study. He was in camp with the Twins in 2023 on a non-guaranteed deal, and he had some buzz. He was one of the last cuts. But he was a cut, and the rest played to script: he latched on with the Phillies, rapidly emerged as an asset, made an All-Star team, signed a big contract with Toronto, piled up 50 saves, and eventually found his way back to the Twins in exchange for a top pitching prospect.

In fairness, the front office deserves its share of blame here. They are the ones that made the call to part ways with Hoffman, who has actually credited Maki with helping him develop his dominant slider. But the Twins had this guy in camp, on the precipice of a breakout, and they were unable to collaboratively conclude that they needed to carry him out of camp and give him a shot. 

It's representative of the executional disconnect that continually holds the Twins back. They saw the promise. They couldn't unlock it. Someone else quickly did. We've also seen this play out with the likes of Yennier Cano, Brent Headrick and others. 

Even their developmental success stories have sometimes been overshadowed by the work of other organizations. Take Louis Varland for example. The Twins deserve plenty of credit for turning a Division II pitcher and 15th-round draft pick into a standout MLB reliever, but shortly after going to another team, Varland reached another level entirely.  

This reminds me of what happened with Ryan Pressly, who progressively turned from a Rule 5 pick into a good relief pitcher before being traded to Houston in 2018 and immediately becoming an elite pitcher. 

I don't want to suggest the Twins pitching staff has not had any wins upon which to hang their hats over recent years. Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley are commendable examples. Yoendrys Gómez might be on that path. (Ironically, all three came over from the Rays.) 

There just haven't been enough. And there have been way too many near-misses — especially in the bullpen — that point to a pitching operation that's been on the right track but unable to push across the finish line. And this is what the Twins will hope to resolve with their new hires on the pitching staff. With Zoll leading baseball ops, there's a new boss to interface with and a new dynamic that will hopefully help shake up the stagnance preventing Twins pitching talent from reaching its potential over the past three years. 

The Twins have spent a decade getting better at finding the right arms. Their next pitching coach needs to make sure that when those arms break through, they're still wearing a Twins uniform.

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[DJL44]

This happens to every team. Players aren’t good enough, get cut, improve somewhere else. The Twins may have been bitten more often because they’re “competing” so they go with a low upside “proven veteran” like Taylor Rogers. That’s the fault of the people putting the roster together, not the coaches.

[Glorybound]

Communication is necessary to have success in any business. I have no first hand knowledge of who listened or didn’t listen to whom but the results are somewhat obvious. It’s ok to be wrong once in awhile but successful individuals learn from their mistakes. They had the individuals highlighted in the article in the system to know somewhat what they had and yet they let them go. I never understood the Pressly trade and the Varland trade is a mind blower for sure. In both cases they left the organization without a pitcher who could close games. The consequences the following seasons are reasons to be fired. I think Falvey is a bit of a dreamer and while capable of identifying talent but lacked the follow through to see talent develop as that takes time. The current gm would do well to recognize the mistakes and not repeat them. They need to find a pitching coach that is a blend of Wes Johnson and Pete Maki that can develop young talent and have enough respect that front office listens to. Hawkins might be that person I suspect he has a good repore with management currently.

[Riverbrian]

Front offices get it wrong often. Not just the Twins but all teams.

Front offices get it wrong a lot and they are making decisions on the margins as they try to maintain rosters with 26 man and 40 man limitations. 

Brent Headrick striking out 98 hitters in 78 innings for the Yankees should have never happened.

This is a LEFT HANDED pitcher with that ability. A left hander that you have had your exclusive eyes on for 5 years. In an organization that lives in fear of left handed batters facing left handed pitchers so it clearly understands the importance of LEFT HANDED pitchers... Yet they can't identify a pitcher with the capability of striking out 98 hitters in 78 innings when he is STANDING RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEM and throwing with his LEFT HAND! 

It happens because the job is hard and front offices get it wrong quite often. 

[Fatbat]

Its priority based decisions that blow up in every org but especially with the twins pitching staff. Someone constantly is sending risk out the door. Then they firesale the future expensive talent.  
Someone who made all those bad decisions better have been removed from the organization by now.  
We can’t keep them all but sending all the future talent away is why we are perpetually average. 

[mike8791]

Nice article, Nick!  While every team has misses, the Twins seem to have more than their share.  This is one of the reasons why the team has wallowed in mediocrity for so long.  Looking back over past pitching coaches, a clear pattern emerges.  Dick Such and Wes Anderson were around for about 20 years.  They were followed by Wes Johnson, a college coach, and then his assistant, Maki.

Do you see a pattern here? The Twins have never invested in a well established major league pitching coach.  Why?  Money, of course, just as money has been the guiding principle in hiring FO, Managerial and coaching personnel.  One time it paid off - Tom Kelly and really going back, Andy MacPhail. 

This is TP's chance to reverse course and hire a man who has established himself as a winner.  Why not poach Carl Willis from Cleveland?  Quit fooling around with wannabees and go for a proven talent.  That would be a real indication that TP means what he says.

[Fatbat]

11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Front offices get it wrong often. Not just the Twins but all teams.

Front offices get it wrong a lot and they are making decisions on the margins as they try to maintain rosters with 26 man and 40 man limitations. 

Brent Headrick striking out 98 hitters in 78 innings for the Yankees should have never happened.

This is a LEFT HANDED pitcher with that ability. A left hander that you have had your exclusive eyes on for 5 years. In an organization that lives in fear of left handed batters facing left handed pitchers so it clearly understands the importance of LEFT HANDED pitchers... Yet they can't identify a pitcher with the capability of striking out 98 hitters in 78 innings when he is STANDING RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEM and throwing with his LEFT HAND! 

It happens because the job is hard and front offices get it wrong quite often. 

Reminds me of Larry Bird dropping 47 pts on the trailblazers LEFT HANDED and saving his right handed shot for the Lakers. Celtics won both game btw. 

[JBK]

11 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Its priority based decisions that blow up in every org but especially with the twins pitching staff. Someone constantly is sending risk out the door. Then they firesale the future expensive talent.  
Someone who made all those bad decisions better have been removed from the organization by now.  
We can’t keep them all but sending all the future talent away is why we are perpetually average. 

The Varland trade last year still makes no sense

[Whitey333]

Twins have had issues with roster management in all areas for years now.  We dont seem to have the right people in place to make the right decisions. 

 

[wesnewy]

could they have done a better job spotting these guys, yes, but sometimes it's as simple as you win some and you lose some.

[killercarewoliva]

1 hour ago, JBK said:

The Varland trade last year still makes no sense

Falvey sat in the booth during a game saying we love Varland but it was an offer we couldn't refuse. How did we let this guy have the job for 10 years