The Root Cause of This Year's Collapse Points to the Challenge Ahead for Twins

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The notion of a successful season for the 2026 Minnesota Twins was essentially put to rest on the very first day of spring training. That ambitious notion rested upon the idea that Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton — the three former All-Stars whom the Twins held onto through last year's deadline firesale — would lead the way for an upstart group capable of taking a mediocre division by surprise. 

It was, honestly, not a ridiculous concept. But when López went down with a season-ending injury during the first full-squad workout in February, it lost plausibility. A fringe team with a bottom-tier payroll could not afford to get zero contribution from its best, most expensive player. Just doesn't work, as much as no one wanted to admit it at the time.

In fairness, the rest of that plan worked out quite well, during the first half at least. Ryan and Buxton were both All-Stars for a second straight year, and they played a big role in keeping the Twins relevant. At the end of August, when Minnesota briefly surfaced above .500 and committed to buying at the deadline, Ryan and Buxton were tied for the team lead in fWAR (2.6).

But from that point forward, they were sub-replacement level. The two biggest stars on the Twins turned into two of their worst players, either unavailable or ineffective throughout the second half. Combine that with the continuing absence of López, and it really tells the whole story of this latest collapse. It is, unfortunately, a familiar story. 

Second-half declines, with injuries playing a factor, have become the norm for both Ryan and Buxton. The latter will be coming off a major hip surgery at age 33 next season, and the former has essentially never put together a complete season. López carries his own set of question marks as he makes his return from Tommy John. I'm bullish on him, but you can never take for granted immediate success coming off reconstructive elbow surgery.

At their best, these three veteran players are certainly capable of forming the core of a contending team. You almost have no choice but to hope they can. But you also can't exactly count on it. And that's where the real challenge emerges for the Twins and their front office. 

Hope for the Best, Build for Something Less

The Twins shouldn't approach this offseason trying to replace López, Ryan or Buxton. Nor should they operate under the assumption that those three will collectively provide a full season of star-level production.

They need to build a roster capable of surviving when they don't.

It's not some totally unique situation in this game of attrition. Injuries happen to every team. Good players slump. Pitchers wear down. The problem is not experiencing those things, but constructing a roster where experiencing them effectively ends your season. And that's what happened in 2026.

When Buxton stopped producing, there wasn't another established middle-of-the-order force ready to pick up the slack. When Ryan faltered, the rotation suddenly lacked the frontline presence it had already been missing without López. The Twins had some impressive young players emerge, but asking them to immediately become the stars carrying a contender is a different proposition altogether.

That becomes especially relevant when looking at the next wave.

Luke Keaschall looks like a foundational player. Taj Bradley and Connor Prielipp established themselves as legitimate rotation building blocks. Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper finally reached the majors and gave us reasons to dream on what's ahead.

It's exactly what the Twins spent the past year waiting for. Now that those players are here, the temptation will be to view their arrival as the offseason upgrade. It can't be.

The Kids Can't Be the Entire Plan

There is tremendous upside in this young core, perhaps more than we've seen in Minnesota for quite some time. There is also plenty of uncertainty.

Jenkins and Rodriguez have barely experienced the major leagues. Culpepper has fewer than 150 plate appearances. Prielipp just completed by far the largest workload of his professional career. Even Keaschall, as impressive as he's been, has only two big-league seasons under his belt.

Some of these players will take steps forward next year. Some probably won't. That's how young players work.

The Twins should be excited about having Jenkins and Rodriguez in their Opening Day lineup. They shouldn't need either one to immediately become a three- or four-win player for the offense to work. They should be thrilled to have Bradley and Prielipp behind López and Ryan. They shouldn't be sunk if one of those veterans misses time or struggles again.

That's the difference between having upside and having depth. Between hoping to contend and planning to contend. The latter requires investment.

Raise the Floor

Last offseason, there was at least some justification for restraint. The Twins were coming off an organizational reset. They had just traded away a huge portion of the roster. Several of their best prospects weren't quite ready yet. It made some sense to spend 2026 figuring out what they had and identifying who could be part of the next competitive team.

Well, now we know a lot more. Bradley is part of it. Prielipp is part of it. Keaschall is part of it. Kody Clemens earned his way into that conversation. Jenkins, Rodriguez and Culpepper are here. López is coming back. The evaluation year is over.

That doesn't mean the Twins should abandon their young players or block their paths with expensive veterans. Quite the opposite. The goal should be to surround them with enough established talent that their development doesn't carry the entire weight of the season.

The lineup is an obvious place to start. Josh Bell and Ryan Jeffers, two of this year's most productive hitters, are headed to free agency. Royce Lewis' future with the organization is uncertain at best. Buxton's health can't be assumed. There is room — and need — for a legitimate veteran bat who can occupy a prominent spot in the order without requiring everything to break right around him.

The bullpen is another clear need. Jeff Hoffman gives them one potentially dominant late-inning arm, assuming his season-ending forearm issue proves minor, but the Twins cannot repeat last winter's approach of assembling a relief corps largely out of hope and spare parts. Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez, meant to be proof-of-concept for building on the fly, demonstrated exactly how quickly seemingly reliable relievers can turn unreliable.

The Twins don't need to construct a superteam, but they need to eliminate the fragility that ultimately doomed the 2026 Twins.

Their path to contention depended on their few established stars remaining stars, their inexpensive supporting cast exceeding expectations, and enough young players arriving quickly enough to fill the gaps. For much of the summer, an impressive number of those things happened. Then a couple stopped happening, and the entire operation fell apart.

No More Waiting for Everything to Go Right

There will be plenty of optimism surrounding the Twins this offseason, and I think much of it is justified. This is a much more interesting roster than the one they carried into spring training. The rotation has real depth and upside. The organization's best position-player prospects have arrived. Several unexpected contributors established themselves. But the front office can't mistake interesting for complete.

Maybe López comes back looking like an ace. Maybe Ryan finally carries his first-half form through September. Maybe Buxton's hip surgery restores the dynamic player we saw early this year. Maybe Jenkins or Rodriguez explodes onto the scene and becomes an immediate star.

While any of those developments would dramatically raise the Twins' ceiling, none should be prerequisites for having a good baseball team. And that's the challenge this offseason: build a roster sturdy enough that its best-case scenario isn't also its only path to contention.

The Twins spent 2026 finding out which pieces of their next core they could trust. In 2027, it's time to give those pieces enough support that they don't have to trust everything else to go right.

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[Jeff K]

I would love to see the Twins find a way to bring in a difference making first baseman.

[Whitey333]

Very good article.  Well thought out!  After more than 10 years of waiting and hoping Buxton might grace us with his presence and actually play and produce its time to stop considering him part of this core.  He is well past that.  Like it or not Buck has been a big part of the reason the team doesnt contend.

 

[AceBee]

Year in and year out..Cle still fought and even earned a first round bye. MIL and TB were the best teams. Payroll is one part of the story but surely we are lacking something else be competitive on a consistent basis

[rv78]

I did not confirm this but another poster said the Twins went 38-43 in their first 81 games and 39-42 in their 2nd 81 games. If that is true there was NO collapse. Maybe everyone here at TD should stop saying there was. The Twins didn't win any more games with Buxton and Ryan contributing at a high level anymore than when they didn't. I see difference makers in the 6 guys you named, Bradley, Prielipp, Keaschall, Culpepper, Jenkins, ERod. The 2 biggest improvements they can make now is: 1.Get rid of the dead wood that continues to hold this team back and 2.Quit dumpster diving for the pieces they need. 

[offensive_loons_fan]

5 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I did not confirm this but another poster said the Twins went 38-43 in their first 81 games and 39-42 in their 2nd 81 games. If that is true there was NO collapse. Maybe everyone here at TD should stop saying there was. The Twins didn't win any more games with Buxton and Ryan contributing at a high level anymore than when they didn't. I see difference makers in the 6 guys you named, Bradley, Prielipp, Keaschall, Culpepper, Jenkins, ERod. The 2 biggest improvements they can make now is: 1.Get rid of the dead wood that continues to hold this team back and 2.Quit dumpster diving for the pieces they need. 

I think this is taking the "first half/second half" too literally. Maybe there wasn't a collapse on a strict 81/81 split but they were inarguably doo doo down the stretch.

[chinmusic]

22 minutes ago, AceBee said:

surely we are lacking something else be competitive on a consistent basis

One of those things would be upgrading defensively.

[mac098]

8 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I did not confirm this but another poster said the Twins went 38-43 in their first 81 games and 39-42 in their 2nd 81 games. If that is true there was NO collapse. Maybe everyone here at TD should stop saying there was. The Twins didn't win anymore games with Buxton and Ryan contributing at a high level any more than when they didn't. I see difference makers in the 6 guys you named, Bradley, Prielipp, Keaschall, Culpepper, Jenkins, ERod. The 2 biggest improvements they can make now is: 1.Get rid of the dead wood that continues to hold this team back and 2.Quit dumpster diving for the pieces they need. 

Just running through Baseball Reference, I was able to confirm the first 81 and the 2nd 81. I agree that there was no collapse. A collapse would have to be something akin to the 2024 season when the wagon fell off a cliff come September. A few things that need to be addressed:

1. Lewis, Wallner, and Larnach

The reason these players need to be addressed is that they are on the 40 man, not producing as they should, and creating a log jam at their respective positions. As for Larnach, I would be more inclined to keep him as he was showing flashes of success this past season prior to cooling down and then getting the injury bug. I would say he had is best season offensively and defensively for the Twins. 

Wallner: Needs to be non-tendered or signed to a Minor league contract with a spring training invite. He showed who he was the past 2 seasons. There wasn't a team that feared him. They knew to through the baseball up above the zone because he was a chaser. 

Lewis: Has to figure it out at the plate. Otherwise he needs to be non-tendered. I know. The Twins are afraid of a Big Papi thing happening again where they let a player go and he turns in a HOF career with another team. But ultimately Lewis has shown who he is and what he's capable of. Sporadic success mixed with season long ineptitude.

2. Levine and Falvey missed on their 1st round draft picks ultimately hamstinging our organization.

I know in baseball that there is never a "sure thing" when it comes to drafting. But as a organization that doesn't want to spend money, they need to hit on a lot of their picks. Of their 8 first round picks that they did, only 1 (Can't count Jenkins or Culpepper as its way to early) have really done anything. Now I know Lewis is part of that but he hasn't really done anything outside of a very strong 2023 year when the Twins needed his electricity and ability to hit in the clutch. But this list of draft picks that include Lewis, Larnach, Cavaco, Sabato, Petty, Lee, Jenkins, Culpepper, and DeBarge, 3 of them are still green, 4 have shown who they are, 1 was traded almost immediately, and the other is playing Indy ball. The only solid player ATM is Lee. 

3. We need to acknowledge that some of our starters may end up being better out of the bullpen.

We need to look at potentially moving a few of our rotation guys to the bullpen because their services might better suited for that. For example, I personally thought Ober looks decent out their coming out of the 'pen. It was definitely different seeing a soft-tossing righty coming out of the pen to deliver a 3 inning save. Kind of reminded me of when we had Sergio Romo with his slow, slower, and REALLY slow pitches. Also, not to mention, these pitchers could make spot starts or opener starts if need be. Kind of creates more flexibility while being able to maintain some stability in the bullpen. The real issue is figuring out who is going to be better out of the pen and who we can send packing. 

[Shaded99]

Look at the splits: the Twins went 59–55 (.518) against the American League but just 18–30 (.375) against the National League. If they'd played interleague games at their AL pace, they'd have gone about 25–23 and finished 84–78 instead of 77–85. That's the same record as the White Sox, who took the last Wild Card spot. We'd have lost the tiebreaker (5–8 head-to-head), but we'd have been playing meaningful games on the last day instead of being eliminated September 20. With the payroll cuts over the last couple of years, I have to wonder whether advance scouting of NL teams got scaled back or cut entirely. Getting swept by the Reds, Dodgers, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres looks like a team that didn't know its opponents.

 

[Riverbrian]

Injuries are never an excuse because injuries occur every single season for all 30 teams. 

There is simply no excuse for not having sufficient competitive depth in place to prepare for something that is going to happen. 

We all know that injuries are going to change context multiple times throughout the season. We all know that some players will go Vlad Jr or Cal Raleigh on you. 

Treat each 26 man spot as gold. 

 

 

[rdehring]

Perhaps best written piece I have read all year.  And the most reasonable.  Thanks, Nick!

[laloesch]

The Twins have a number of issues.  Losing Lopez for the season did not help, but the continued lack luster play from Lewis did not help matters either.  Buxton not being 100% again for a season also did not help.  The Twins need to stop relying on Buxton as the foundation stone for this offense.  He just can't stay healthy.

Josh Bell just does not cut it as the fulltime 1st basemen, and I doubt he's brought back.  I don't think moving Lewis to 1st is the answer either, but I think the Twins will try to get him to stick at 1st. 

This team needs to spend some money at that position.  The rest of the infield (outside of catcher) will take care of itself.  Culpepper at short or 2nd, Lee at 3rd, and eventually Marek Houston at short.  That's a solid infield beyond the glaring hole at 1st.  The outfield will take care of itself.  Erod in LF, Jenkins in Center (eventually), Buxton in RF (eventually).  Roden 4th outfielder.  Keaschall at DH / 4th/5th outfielder. 

Catcher is a question mark.  Ryan Jeffers is almost assuredly gone (thought the Twins should do everything they can to keep him around for at least 3 or 4 more seasons in my opinion).  That leaves them with Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson.

 

[Czelgert]

The Twins need to create some redundancies in their lineup so they’re not one Buxton injury from going over a cliff.  They need to address C, 1B, and another bat that can play OF/DH when Buck inevitably goes down again.

Personally, I’m pessimistic already because they wasted a roster spot for about 1/3 of the season with a backup C who got like 15 ABs.  The only thing I can fathom is they already locked into Jackson to be on the big league roster next year for reasons unapparent.  The Twins didn’t think him good enough to play this year but didn’t want to lose him for next year.  Makes a lot of sense…