Do the Twins Really Have a Top-8 Roster Entering the Offseason?

The Minnesota Twins have plenty of work to do this offseason after finishing the 2026 campaign with a disappointing 77-85 record. Between free agents departing and several holes that need to be addressed, the roster will look different when the team takes the field next spring. However, a recent MLB.com ranking suggests Minnesota might be closer to contention than its record indicates.

Mike Petriello ranked all 30 MLB teams based on their projected 2027 rosters. Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) projections from FanGraphs, the rankings examine where each organization stands as it enters the offseason. This isn't a ranking of last year's results. Instead, it provides a snapshot of the players currently projected to be on each team's roster before free-agent additions and other offseason moves.

According to Petriello's rankings, the Twins are tied for eighth overall. That's a surprisingly strong position for a team that finished eight games below .500. Minnesota shares that ranking with the Tampa Bay Rays, the reigning American League champions, along with the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays.

Why Are the Twins Ranked So High?

Petriello acknowledges that Minnesota's position in the rankings might surprise some fans. After all, this is a team that won only 77 games and struggled to establish much consistency throughout the season. However, the projections see something worth building around.

The Twins don't have a lineup full of superstars, but they also don't have many glaring weaknesses in the projected batting order. Having a relatively balanced group of position players can make a significant difference when evaluating a roster's overall projected value.

There are also some interesting young players who could help elevate that group. Petriello specifically points toward the projections for Kaelen Culpepper (3.1 fWAR) and Luke Keaschall (3.4 fWAR). There is certainly room to question how much optimism should be placed in those projections, but their potential contributions help explain Minnesota's ranking.

The pitching staff also has some reasons for optimism. Taj Bradley (2.7 fWAR)  took a significant step forward during his breakout campaign, giving the organization another intriguing arm near the top of its rotation. Joe Ryan (3.0 fWAR) remains an important part of the starting group, while Pablo López (1.8 fWAR) is expected to return and provide another major boost.

Those three pitchers give Minnesota a foundation that could make the rotation one of its strengths in 2027. However, the projections also highlight how much work remains to build a reliable pitching staff behind them.

Several Offseason Needs Remain

Being ranked among baseball's top eight projected rosters doesn't mean the Twins can sit back and enjoy the offseason. Petriello identifies several areas where Minnesota needs to make improvements.

The departure of Ryan Jeffers creates an immediate need behind the plate. Jeffers has been an important part of the organization, and the Twins cannot simply assume the current catching situation will be enough to replace his production. They need to find another option who can handle a significant workload.

Josh Bell is another major departure. He provided 21 home runs during the 2026 season, and Minnesota needs to find a way to replace that power. The Twins don't necessarily need to sign another first baseman with the same profile, but they need to add some offensive production to a lineup that already lacks many established stars.

The bullpen might be the biggest overall concern. Minnesota needs multiple reinforcements to create a more dependable group of relievers. Losing A.J. Minter to free agency would add another challenge for a pitching staff that needs more reliable late-inning options.

Starting pitching depth is another concern. Bradley, Ryan, and López provide an encouraging top three, but the organization cannot expect Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, and Dean Kremer to absorb hundreds of additional innings without finding more help. Injuries and workload management make starting rotation depth essential over a 162-game season.

There is plenty of work ahead, but these are manageable needs for a team with an established foundation.

How Does the Rest of the AL Central Compare?

The Twins' ranking also provides an interesting look at the rest of the division. The Cleveland Guardians lead the AL Central representatives, ranking seventh overall. Minnesota and Detroit are tied for eighth, putting three division rivals among the top eight projected rosters in baseball. The Chicago White Sox come in at No. 20, while the Kansas City Royals rank 23rd.

Cleveland remains near the top of the rankings despite having some significant pitching needs. Detroit also has plenty of work ahead, particularly with its rotation and bullpen. Meanwhile, Chicago and Kansas City have more roster questions to answer before they can be considered serious contenders.

The AL Central could be an interesting division again in 2027, especially if Minnesota and Detroit can translate their projected roster value into more wins.

The Twins Have Work to Do

An eighth-place preseason roster ranking doesn't guarantee anything. The Twins were projected to be more competitive in 2026 than their final record suggested, and projections are never a substitute for results on the field.

Still, this ranking provides an encouraging starting point for Minnesota's offseason. The organization has young talent, intriguing starting pitching, and a lineup that projects to be relatively balanced. Those are important building blocks for a team hoping to return to postseason contention.

Now comes the difficult part. The Twins need to replace the production of departing free agents, improve their bullpen, add catching help, and provide more depth to the rotation. Those moves will require resources and a willingness to improve the roster.

Petriello's ranking offers a snapshot of where Minnesota stands before the Hot Stove season gets going. By the time spring training arrives, the Twins could look considerably different. The decisions made over the next several months will ultimately determine whether they remain a top-eight projected roster or fall further down the rankings heading into the 2027 campaign.

Do you agree with the rankings? What additions could move Minnesota higher this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

Want to play the role of Twins general manager? Check out our free-to-use "You're The GM" offseason tool and build your own Twins roster!