The Root Cause of This Year's Collapse Points to the Challenge Ahead for Twins

The notion of a successful season for the 2026 Minnesota Twins was essentially put to rest on the very first day of spring training. That ambitious notion rested upon the idea that Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton — the three former All-Stars whom the Twins held onto through last year's deadline firesale — would lead the way for an upstart group capable of taking a mediocre division by surprise. 

It was, honestly, not a ridiculous concept. But when López went down with a season-ending injury during the first full-squad workout in February, it lost plausibility. A fringe team with a bottom-tier payroll could not afford to get zero contribution from its best, most expensive player. Just doesn't work, as much as no one wanted to admit it at the time.

In fairness, the rest of that plan worked out quite well, during the first half at least. Ryan and Buxton were both All-Stars for a second straight year, and they played a big role in keeping the Twins relevant. At the end of August, when Minnesota briefly surfaced above .500 and committed to buying at the deadline, Ryan and Buxton were tied for the team lead in fWAR (2.6).

But from that point forward, they were sub-replacement level. The two biggest stars on the Twins turned into two of their worst players, either unavailable or ineffective throughout the second half. Combine that with the continuing absence of López, and it really tells the whole story of this latest collapse. It is, unfortunately, a familiar story. 

Second-half declines, with injuries playing a factor, have become the norm for both Ryan and Buxton. The latter will be coming off a major hip surgery at age 33 next season, and the former has essentially never put together a complete season. López carries his own set of question marks as he makes his return from Tommy John. I'm bullish on him, but you can never take for granted immediate success coming off reconstructive elbow surgery.

At their best, these three veteran players are certainly capable of forming the core of a contending team. You almost have no choice but to hope they can. But you also can't exactly count on it. And that's where the real challenge emerges for the Twins and their front office. 

Hope for the Best, Build for Something Less

The Twins shouldn't approach this offseason trying to replace López, Ryan or Buxton. Nor should they operate under the assumption that those three will collectively provide a full season of star-level production.

They need to build a roster capable of surviving when they don't.

It's not some totally unique situation in this game of attrition. Injuries happen to every team. Good players slump. Pitchers wear down. The problem is not experiencing those things, but constructing a roster where experiencing them effectively ends your season. And that's what happened in 2026.

When Buxton stopped producing, there wasn't another established middle-of-the-order force ready to pick up the slack. When Ryan faltered, the rotation suddenly lacked the frontline presence it had already been missing without López. The Twins had some impressive young players emerge, but asking them to immediately become the stars carrying a contender is a different proposition altogether.

That becomes especially relevant when looking at the next wave.

Luke Keaschall looks like a foundational player. Taj Bradley and Connor Prielipp established themselves as legitimate rotation building blocks. Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper finally reached the majors and gave us reasons to dream on what's ahead.

It's exactly what the Twins spent the past year waiting for. Now that those players are here, the temptation will be to view their arrival as the offseason upgrade. It can't be.

The Kids Can't Be the Entire Plan

There is tremendous upside in this young core, perhaps more than we've seen in Minnesota for quite some time. There is also plenty of uncertainty.

Jenkins and Rodriguez have barely experienced the major leagues. Culpepper has fewer than 150 plate appearances. Prielipp just completed by far the largest workload of his professional career. Even Keaschall, as impressive as he's been, has only two big-league seasons under his belt.

Some of these players will take steps forward next year. Some probably won't. That's how young players work.

The Twins should be excited about having Jenkins and Rodriguez in their Opening Day lineup. They shouldn't need either one to immediately become a three- or four-win player for the offense to work. They should be thrilled to have Bradley and Prielipp behind López and Ryan. They shouldn't be sunk if one of those veterans misses time or struggles again.

That's the difference between having upside and having depth. Between hoping to contend and planning to contend. The latter requires investment.

Raise the Floor

Last offseason, there was at least some justification for restraint. The Twins were coming off an organizational reset. They had just traded away a huge portion of the roster. Several of their best prospects weren't quite ready yet. It made some sense to spend 2026 figuring out what they had and identifying who could be part of the next competitive team.

Well, now we know a lot more. Bradley is part of it. Prielipp is part of it. Keaschall is part of it. Kody Clemens earned his way into that conversation. Jenkins, Rodriguez and Culpepper are here. López is coming back. The evaluation year is over.

That doesn't mean the Twins should abandon their young players or block their paths with expensive veterans. Quite the opposite. The goal should be to surround them with enough established talent that their development doesn't carry the entire weight of the season.

The lineup is an obvious place to start. Josh Bell and Ryan Jeffers, two of this year's most productive hitters, are headed to free agency. Royce Lewis' future with the organization is uncertain at best. Buxton's health can't be assumed. There is room — and need — for a legitimate veteran bat who can occupy a prominent spot in the order without requiring everything to break right around him.

The bullpen is another clear need. Jeff Hoffman gives them one potentially dominant late-inning arm, assuming his season-ending forearm issue proves minor, but the Twins cannot repeat last winter's approach of assembling a relief corps largely out of hope and spare parts. Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez, meant to be proof-of-concept for building on the fly, demonstrated exactly how quickly seemingly reliable relievers can turn unreliable.

The Twins don't need to construct a superteam, but they need to eliminate the fragility that ultimately doomed the 2026 Twins.

Their path to contention depended on their few established stars remaining stars, their inexpensive supporting cast exceeding expectations, and enough young players arriving quickly enough to fill the gaps. For much of the summer, an impressive number of those things happened. Then a couple stopped happening, and the entire operation fell apart.

No More Waiting for Everything to Go Right

There will be plenty of optimism surrounding the Twins this offseason, and I think much of it is justified. This is a much more interesting roster than the one they carried into spring training. The rotation has real depth and upside. The organization's best position-player prospects have arrived. Several unexpected contributors established themselves. But the front office can't mistake interesting for complete.

Maybe López comes back looking like an ace. Maybe Ryan finally carries his first-half form through September. Maybe Buxton's hip surgery restores the dynamic player we saw early this year. Maybe Jenkins or Rodriguez explodes onto the scene and becomes an immediate star.

While any of those developments would dramatically raise the Twins' ceiling, none should be prerequisites for having a good baseball team. And that's the challenge this offseason: build a roster sturdy enough that its best-case scenario isn't also its only path to contention.

The Twins spent 2026 finding out which pieces of their next core they could trust. In 2027, it's time to give those pieces enough support that they don't have to trust everything else to go right.

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