One Year Later, Who Would You Rather Have: Griffin Jax or Taj Bradley?

[Ray Stuedemann]

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

In a straight one-for-one trade made at the deadline last year, the Twins acquired Taj Bradley for Griffin Jax, who was a reliever at the time. Since then, Bradley has become one of the Twins’ better arms, while Jax has made the transition from reliever to starter. As the deadline inches closer, it's a good time to reexamine that trade and answer the question: Who would you rather have?

2026 Performance
Bradley's uneven but exciting performance has been especially welcome, given the injuries in the rotation. He made six starts in his initial half-season with the Twins, pitching to a 6.61 ERA (4.73 FIP) in 31 1/3 innings, but 2026 has been a whole different experience.

Currently worth 1.6 fWAR (second on the team among pitchers, behind only Joe Ryan), Bradley has made 17 starts this year, with a 3.67 ERA (3.80 FIP). He’s striking out 27.8% of batters, the second-highest mark of his career. When batters do make contact, they do damage, but you can miss enough bats to work around that shortcoming; Bradley is doing so this season.

Bradley has thrown his fastball, cutter, and splitter well this year. All three boast a positive run value, according to Statcast. His curveball hasn’t been great, with a -7 run value, and opposing hitters are slugging .568 on it. Again, though, he's been able to outpitch his weaknesses so far.

Jax, on the other hand, had well-documented struggles early in the year as a reliever. His FIP was way up at 7.56, despite an xFIP of 4.58, and his walk rate was up to 15.9%. He was giving up lots of home runs, and opposing hitters had a .413 wOBA against him. He lasted only nine innings as a reliever before transitioning to a starting role.

Since then, though, Jax has pitched to a 2.89 ERA (3.99 FIP) in 56 innings, while striking out 26.1% of the batters he faces. His walk rate has plummeted to 6.8%, and batters have just a .297 wOBA against him..

As for his pitch mix, Jax has been effective with his three most-used pitches: sweeper, changeup, and sinker, all of which have a positive run value. His fastball has been his worst pitch by far (-5 run value); his curveball and cutter haven’t been thrown nearly as much as the other four.

There were rumblings, even back to the time when he was a Twin, about Jax wanting to convert into a starting role. Now that he has done it with the Rays, the change has brought positive outcomes for both Tampa Bay and Jax himself. Here's hoping that will lead to a big payday soon. Jax is a good pitcher. The Twins (and their fans) knew this when he was traded away.

Team Control
Control of a player can be crucial in evaluating a would-you-rather situation like this one. Bradley is currently in the pre-arbitration phase and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this fall. He won’t be a free agent until November 2029. As for Jax, he avoided arbitration this year by signing a one-year deal with the Rays. The 31-year-old has one more year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. Bradley being younger and having more years of control is certainly a win for the Twins, as he looks like a potential front-of-the-rotation starter. Even if Jax is one, too, he's sooner out the door. And then there's the money.

Salaries
Talking about the Twins always means money must be part of the conversation. Current salaries once again favor Bradley in this comparison. Bradley’s salary is $802,050 in 2026, while Jax is making $3.6 million. In the end, the Twins saved money by dealing Jax for Bradley, and while they didn't make the robust investment in restocking their bullpen for which fans might have fairly hoped, it's easy to guess that the extra few million made a difference for them somewhere along the way.

Bradley and Jax have been linked ever since last year's trade deadline, and they'll continue to be compared for as long as they remain with their current clubs. Every strong outing from Bradley or dominant appearance from Jax will inevitably reignite the debate over which team came out ahead. One year later, both organizations have reasons to be satisfied, but the long-term verdict is still pending. Bradley has given the Twins a young, cost-controlled starter with years of team control remaining, while Jax has transitioned into a good starter for a win-now Rays team steaming toward a division title. For now, there may not be a definitive winner—only two teams that addressed different needs in different ways.

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All things considered, who would you rather have right now? Have the Twins clearly fleeced the Rays, or will Jax yet prove to be so valuable that Minnesota should have retained him, converted him to this new role, and extended him? Weigh in!

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[thelanges5]

Lock Taj up now, give him an extension. 

[bean5302]

Bradley. Not even a question. Jax is looking like he might stick as a starter, but he's got a long way to go to be as good as a starter as what Bradley is doing right now, and with much more team control

[NYCTK]

I was one of the most vocal here about moving Jax back to the rotation, and still wonder what the team looks like in that alternate reality. But Bradley was a very good return and basically alleviates any annoyance I feel about the Twins not making that move. 

[Blyleven2011]

With all the Injuries to our starters this year the answer is quite obvious   Bradley ...

No one liked all the deadline trades last season especially the trades of team controlled players , but trading a bullpen arm for a starter is a no brainer , Duran for Abel and Tait  , Jax for Bradley  etc. ...

[Road trip]

It's early to judge, but right now it looks like a very good trade for the Twins.

In two years Bradley will hopefully still be an important member of the Twins rotation.  Jax will have gotten significantly more expensive and will be pitching somewhere other than Tampa.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Bradley is younger and better, with more years of control.  Barring injury (which really can’t be factored in either way), It seems pretty likely that the Twins made a good call here.  If Jax goes on to have some good success, there will be people here lamenting it.  However, they forget that we can’t have them both, only one, and for my money, the best is Bradley.  

[Peter]

Taj!!!

[rdehring]

Won't be until this time next year that we will know the answer for sure but is looking good for the Twins.  When Jax leaves the Rays as a free agent (is it this year or next?) and should Bradley be pitching anything like he is now while in his first year of arbitration, big win for the Twins.

[FlyingFinn]

Many including me said the trades last year were good or great EXCEPT for the Varland trade. Trading cheap, closer material that was under team control (and from MN) just didn't look good as someone predicted to be the closer.

I want Bradley. Good trade.