One Year Later, Who Would You Rather Have: Griffin Jax or Taj Bradley?

[Ray Stuedemann]

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

In a straight one-for-one trade made at the deadline last year, the Twins acquired Taj Bradley for Griffin Jax, who was a reliever at the time. Since then, Bradley has become one of the Twins’ better arms, while Jax has made the transition from reliever to starter. As the deadline inches closer, it's a good time to reexamine that trade and answer the question: Who would you rather have?

2026 Performance
Bradley's uneven but exciting performance has been especially welcome, given the injuries in the rotation. He made six starts in his initial half-season with the Twins, pitching to a 6.61 ERA (4.73 FIP) in 31 1/3 innings, but 2026 has been a whole different experience.

Currently worth 1.6 fWAR (second on the team among pitchers, behind only Joe Ryan), Bradley has made 17 starts this year, with a 3.67 ERA (3.80 FIP). He’s striking out 27.8% of batters, the second-highest mark of his career. When batters do make contact, they do damage, but you can miss enough bats to work around that shortcoming; Bradley is doing so this season.

Bradley has thrown his fastball, cutter, and splitter well this year. All three boast a positive run value, according to Statcast. His curveball hasn’t been great, with a -7 run value, and opposing hitters are slugging .568 on it. Again, though, he's been able to outpitch his weaknesses so far.

Jax, on the other hand, had well-documented struggles early in the year as a reliever. His FIP was way up at 7.56, despite an xFIP of 4.58, and his walk rate was up to 15.9%. He was giving up lots of home runs, and opposing hitters had a .413 wOBA against him. He lasted only nine innings as a reliever before transitioning to a starting role.

Since then, though, Jax has pitched to a 2.89 ERA (3.99 FIP) in 56 innings, while striking out 26.1% of the batters he faces. His walk rate has plummeted to 6.8%, and batters have just a .297 wOBA against him..

As for his pitch mix, Jax has been effective with his three most-used pitches: sweeper, changeup, and sinker, all of which have a positive run value. His fastball has been his worst pitch by far (-5 run value); his curveball and cutter haven’t been thrown nearly as much as the other four.

There were rumblings, even back to the time when he was a Twin, about Jax wanting to convert into a starting role. Now that he has done it with the Rays, the change has brought positive outcomes for both Tampa Bay and Jax himself. Here's hoping that will lead to a big payday soon. Jax is a good pitcher. The Twins (and their fans) knew this when he was traded away.

Team Control
Control of a player can be crucial in evaluating a would-you-rather situation like this one. Bradley is currently in the pre-arbitration phase and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this fall. He won’t be a free agent until November 2029. As for Jax, he avoided arbitration this year by signing a one-year deal with the Rays. The 31-year-old has one more year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. Bradley being younger and having more years of control is certainly a win for the Twins, as he looks like a potential front-of-the-rotation starter. Even if Jax is one, too, he's sooner out the door. And then there's the money.

Salaries
Talking about the Twins always means money must be part of the conversation. Current salaries once again favor Bradley in this comparison. Bradley’s salary is $802,050 in 2026, while Jax is making $3.6 million. In the end, the Twins saved money by dealing Jax for Bradley, and while they didn't make the robust investment in restocking their bullpen for which fans might have fairly hoped, it's easy to guess that the extra few million made a difference for them somewhere along the way.

Bradley and Jax have been linked ever since last year's trade deadline, and they'll continue to be compared for as long as they remain with their current clubs. Every strong outing from Bradley or dominant appearance from Jax will inevitably reignite the debate over which team came out ahead. One year later, both organizations have reasons to be satisfied, but the long-term verdict is still pending. Bradley has given the Twins a young, cost-controlled starter with years of team control remaining, while Jax has transitioned into a good starter for a win-now Rays team steaming toward a division title. For now, there may not be a definitive winner—only two teams that addressed different needs in different ways.

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All things considered, who would you rather have right now? Have the Twins clearly fleeced the Rays, or will Jax yet prove to be so valuable that Minnesota should have retained him, converted him to this new role, and extended him? Weigh in!

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[thelanges5]

Lock Taj up now, give him an extension. 

[bean5302]

Bradley. Not even a question. Jax is looking like he might stick as a starter, but he's got a long way to go to be as good as a starter as what Bradley is doing right now, and with much more team control

[NYCTK]

I was one of the most vocal here about moving Jax back to the rotation, and still wonder what the team looks like in that alternate reality. But Bradley was a very good return and basically alleviates any annoyance I feel about the Twins not making that move. 

[Blyleven2011]

With all the Injuries to our starters this year the answer is quite obvious   Bradley ...

No one liked all the deadline trades last season especially the trades of team controlled players , but trading a bullpen arm for a starter is a no brainer , Duran for Abel and Tait  , Jax for Bradley  etc. ...

[Road trip]

It's early to judge, but right now it looks like a very good trade for the Twins.

In two years Bradley will hopefully still be an important member of the Twins rotation.  Jax will have gotten significantly more expensive and will be pitching somewhere other than Tampa.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Bradley is younger and better, with more years of control.  Barring injury (which really can’t be factored in either way), It seems pretty likely that the Twins made a good call here.  If Jax goes on to have some good success, there will be people here lamenting it.  However, they forget that we can’t have them both, only one, and for my money, the best is Bradley.  

[Peter]

Taj!!!

[rdehring]

Won't be until this time next year that we will know the answer for sure but is looking good for the Twins.  When Jax leaves the Rays as a free agent (is it this year or next?) and should Bradley be pitching anything like he is now while in his first year of arbitration, big win for the Twins.

[FlyingFinn]

Many including me said the trades last year were good or great EXCEPT for the Varland trade. Trading cheap, closer material that was under team control (and from MN) just didn't look good as someone predicted to be the closer.

I want Bradley. Good trade.

[miller761]

Good trade. By that I mean it was a good trade for both teams. Jax gets a chance to pitch in the playoffs and be a starting pitcher. Twins get a #2 starting pitcher controllable for 3 more years.

[jmlease1]

It's certainly possible that Jax's move back to the rotation has unlocked something for him and he'll be cruising as a starter for the rest of his career, but I think it's notable how careful TB has been with him in this role: hasn't thrown over 90 pitches, only gone past the 5th inning once, etc. And it's not about him needing more time to get stretched out: he's almost 2 months into this change in role. 

The reality is, Jax is 31 and Bradley is 25. Jax is more expensive, with less team control. Those are not small things.

But for me, Bradley also has higher end potential. 8 of his 17 starts he's put up a Game Score over 60, with half of them over 65. Bradley has over half his starts going 6 or more innings. He's had some stinkers (4 with a Game Score of 40 or less), but 3 of those were in his first 4 starts coming off time on the IL.

Bradley has looked like a frontline starter, someone you would be very comfortable starting Game 1 of a playoff series. He's 6 years younger than Jax, significant cheaper, and under team control for longer. The upside looks higher, and I feel pretty good about this trade.

[bjorks]

10/10 and 2x on Sunday - SP > RP

Doubtful Jax (headcase) struggles as mightily as he did this year if he's still a Twin and even more doubtful they let him go back to starter. Jax is probably a top 10'ish closer if he's still with us, but hard to project how the dominoes would've fallen. I believe he or the team acknowledged he asked to be traded once said dominoes started to fall. Easy to say Bradley, but the impact Jax would have with the current team AS CONSTRUCTED would not have us in 1st IMO. He may be a great closer but getting to him is still the problem. 

[HeresWaldo]

I really don't know what to think of Taj. Models like Pitching+ aren't super impressed with him because the command is so bad and he doesn't really tunnel well, but if teams are going to repeatedly swing at cutters in the dirt like the Guardians were earlier this week maybe it doesn't matter. I'm inclined to think he's going to regress when teams force him into the zone, but it keeps not happening, so who knows.

For what it's worth I threw together a quick graphic that compares the two and there's a real argument Jax is better, although as a big fan of stuff I do have a soft spot for Bradley. I'd probably take Bradley of the two, but it's a lot closer than I think a lot of people are making it sound in this comment section. It's also worth noting this graphic uses full season numbers so it includes Jax's brutal start as a reliever. If you filter to just his starts he absolutely dominates in this comparison. 

[clone52]

A perfect win-win trade.  Even if Jax becomes an Ace, still aperfect trade.  Twins may have never given him the chance to start and the relationship was so frayed that he likely could have failed if he had been given the chance.

[TheLeviathan]

It's a smart baseball trade to turn a reliever into a controlled starter every single time you can.

[ashbury]

Most of the secondary aspects favor having Bradley.  But it still comes down to performance.  If Bradley were scuffling badly, I wouldn't care that the team had control for so many more years.

But since both Jax and Bradley are performing as well as either team probably hoped, it comes down to this: Tampa surely believed Bradley was unrepairable, or else they would not even have considered this trade.  The Twins on the other hand deserve praise for the strength of their convictions.

[GopherMike]

Which would you rather have:

--A 31-year-old reliever with 0.3 WAR this year and two years of team control

OR

--A 25-year-old starting pitcher with 1.6 WAR this year and four years of team control

Gosh...I dunno....can I have a minute?

[mikelink45]

Actually I need another year to decide.  It is always easy to jump to a conclusion on SSS but if we don't look at Jax early nunbers it is harder to say.  Let's see how it plays out. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Ill take Taj every single time over Jax. Not even close. 

Jax was done here. At the end, it was fairly obvious he wasnt happy here and seemed he had an attitude about it. He even demanded his own trade. Doesn't sound like someone I want on my team. 

[Riverbrian]

Taj without a doubt. 

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Actually I need another year to decide.  It is always easy to jump to a conclusion on SSS but if we don't look at Jax early nunbers it is harder to say.  Let's see how it plays out. 

If we don't look at Bradley's number's coming off the IL it gets easier again. Jax's early struggles happened. (Conspiracy Josh wonders if Jax's stated desire to start contributed to Jax struggling in relief again at the start of the season...)

And if Jax is gone from TB because they won't pay his salary/can't reach an extension...how do you feel about it? Bradley ain't going anywhere.

[twinfan]

I'd rather have Jax. Bradley has had a great first half and is younger but his history isn't quite there. I guess I was partial to what Jax could do. I wasn't high on Bradley but he has kept us in most games. We'll see how it goes in the long run and the second half of the season.

[Jeff K]

I liked the trade when it was made and I like it even more now.  TAJ!

[mrguy]

probably the 2nd best trade of last year with the best one being the Bader one. Bradley has been great and the loss off Jax haven't been as bad, If Bradley stays like how he has this year across his remaining time the twins control him(unless they extend him) it will be an amazing deal. still though, the Bader trade for Mendez feels like it's the one that will biggest fleece the team could've made last year if Mendez can mash in the majors like he has with the Saints

[Linus]

Hands down Taj. 

[mikelink45]

11 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

If we don't look at Bradley's number's coming off the IL it gets easier again. Jax's early struggles happened. (Conspiracy Josh wonders if Jax's stated desire to start contributed to Jax struggling in relief again at the start of the season...)

And if Jax is gone from TB because they won't pay his salary/can't reach an extension...how do you feel about it? Bradley ain't going anywhere.

I repeat - give me a couple years and I will have an opinion.  Baseball is hard to judge so much depends on health,  

[Bodie]

 

Pretty sure the Twins are happy with the return, as are the Tampa'ers.  And we can say "Tampa" and "trade" without the first thought being "Delmond Young".  That in itself makes it all worthwhile!

[Twinsrtheworst]

20 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I repeat - give me a couple years and I will have an opinion.  Baseball is hard to judge so much depends on health,  

If I remember correctly, I do by the way, You and many others had an opinion right after the trade. Actually you didn’t like the trade at the time. Now a year after the trade no opinion? Is it an every other year type thing?

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Twinsrtheworst said:

If I remember correctly, I do by the way, You and many others had an opinion right after the trade. Actually you didn’t like the trade at the time. Now a year after the trade no opinion? Is it an every other year type thing?

No, it's the fact that in baseball so many factors influence success and we don't know when and how those things will impact so I like to wait