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HeresWaldo

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Everything posted by HeresWaldo

  1. HeresWaldo
    For the right price, you can extend anybody, but the only one of these guys I'd want to give meaningful money to is Jenkins. Keaschall is fun, but he's already under team control for his prime-age seasons, he's limited to corner outfield, and he doesn't have the power to be a true star at the position. He can be good, but he's unlikely to be a "must-have" guy in his free agency years. Rodriguez is fun to dream on, but he's never played a fully healthy season, the contact skills are alarming, and he's going to end up in a corner spot. That's fine, but once again, I don't think he's someone you absolutely want around seven years from now, in his 30s. A good career outcome for him is the next Joey Gallo. Culpepper is a nice story, and he's already become much more intriguing than I expected when they drafted him. But he's probably not a long-term shortstop, and while I think he can be a good player as a second or third baseman, the offensive profile is less impressive once he moves off short. Like the others, he absolutely has the potential to be good, and it's fair to be excited about him, but I don't see any reason to commit to him as the third baseman of the future more than half a decade out. Down in the minors, it seems like Houston is probably a legit shortstop, but he's already under team control for the years you'd want from a glove-first middle infielder. I guess if you were extremely confident, you could extend Lackey, but that would be an extremely aggressive move given how catchers age. On the pitching side, I know people have fallen in love with Taj, but he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher who relies heavily on fastball velocity. That's fine, and it can lead to good results, but it's not a skill set that usually ages particularly well. Prielipp was a fun story and does have the upside of a playoff-caliber starter, but he's already under team control through age 30 and has enormous injury questions. If he's in the org through the end of arbitration, that's probably a win, so I don't know why you'd want to add years. A bunch of these guys are exciting, but so much of their collective prime age seasons are already team controlled.
  2. HeresWaldo
    There's a good argument for judging guys based only on what they did instead of worrying about what it means for the future, so do with this what you will. But it's worth noting that the baseball changed a lot mid-season this year. Drag started the season near record highs, then fell off a cliff in early June, and from there on it was a more homer-friendly environment than any recent season except 2019, the year of the home run. Genuinely not trying to be a bummer, but it's worth keeping in mind that some of the second-half power surges we saw from guys hitting wall-scrapers might not mean much for the future. There are others, but in particular I'd keep this in mind for Lee and Keaschall, given the shapes of their seasons and their average home run distances. Both can still be quality players of course, but it's plausible we just saw their career best power months. Inversely, this says something pretty alarming about guys like Royce Lewis who were supposed to have big power but didn't show it even in a 2019-style environment.
  3. HeresWaldo
    You and I are defining "good" differently, and that's fine. I can absolutely see why if you believe he's had 13 good starts you'd take issue with my stance. I hope similarly you can see why a sabermetrically-minded person like myself who sees a total of four good starts would view things differently.
  4. HeresWaldo
    For sure, but most guys at least pretend they're aiming for the shadow zone and he just doesn't seem to care. If it's working for him I'm on board, but I've never seen anything like it. There are 48 qualified starting pitchers in MLB right now. He's tied for 5th best stuff by Stuff+ but is 47th out of 48 in Location+. The results basically back this up with one of the 10 worst walk rates in the group but also an excellent strikeout rate. Put another way the models think he's got Jacob DeGrom's stuff with Robbie Ray's command.
  5. HeresWaldo
    I still can't figure Bradley out. The stuff is so enticing but I don't think I've ever seen a good starter misfire into one of the batters boxes as often as he does. The attached visual is his locations from last night, and by my count more than a third of his pitches thrown outside the zone missed by so much that they ended up in a batters box, were spiked in the dirt, or could have hit someone in the head.
  6. HeresWaldo
    Okay let's do that. These starts represent 84 innings pitched, during which he struck out 70 guys for a 7.5 K/9 or 21.5 K%, both of which are solidly below league average. The ERA and FIP in these starts are unsurprisingly quite good since we're limiting ourselves to only starts where we already knew the results were good - 2.14 ERA/3.42 FIP - but this is overwhelmingly driven by the extremely lucky .239 BABIP and 0.86 HR/9 rates. So yeah, if we filter down to the starts where the guy with a 6th percentile barrel rate and 6th percentile exit velocity against doesn't give up homers and the defense is good behind him, he looks good. If these were starts where he was regularly punching out 10+ I'd totally agree with you, but even in this extremely overly filtered data set he's pretty clearly getting lucky. Now, if what you're saying is I'm still missing the point because these are still averages I'm using and the results in those game were good, that's fine, as long as we're clear that those individual game results are not at all predictive of future performance.
  7. HeresWaldo
    Thanks, I appreciate the thoughtful response. You're welcome to use the stats you prefer, but be aware that Bill James himself referred to Game Score as "a kind of garbage stat that I present not because it helps us understand anything in particular but because it is fun to play around with." The thing to keep in mind about Game Score is that it's heavily driven by the number of hits allowed, which means it's driven by the defense behind the pitcher on any given day. Zebby has a .269 BABIP this season, so it makes sense that Game Score would like him, since the defense behind him has generally been good. If we look at stats known to be predictive of future performance, like K%, K-BB%, and FIP, he's been a solidly below-average starter this season. These poor overall results make sense because we know that in addition to his low strikeout rate he is allowing extremely high average exit velocity on contact. Per Baseball Savant, he's in the 6th percentile in average exit velocity, which would generally mean a high BABIP, not the abnormally low BABIP he's actually allowed. This suggests he's been quite lucky on balls in play, which is what makes the poor topline results so discouraging to me. I'm by no means saying this makes him a guaranteed failure going forward. Baseball development isn't linear, and it's certainly possible he takes a step forward this offseason or could be converted into a great reliever even if he continues to struggle as a starter. All I'm saying is that his numbers this year haven't been great, and the predictive stats support those poor results, so as far as I can tell, there's no strong reason to bet on him being good next year as a starter.
  8. HeresWaldo
    What are you basing your faith in this pitching staff on? Zebby has had a couple good starts but overall has looked terrible, and his FIP is even higher than the not good results. Festa and Abel are fun to dream on but neither has shown the ability to make it through a season and both have iffy major league track records in the innings they have thrown. Pablo is one of the easiest people in the world to root for and I am rooting for him, but guys often look shaky in their first year back from Tommy John surgery. Bradley and Ryan are the team aces, and I'm open to believing in both of them, but we've seen this year that they can't carry this pitching staff on their own. Kremer is okay and I have no problem with that trade, but he's a 4/5th starter. None of the prospects are concensus elite guys and none are clearly ready for the majors. The bullpen has some decent arms in it but lacks any real high upside weapons and is dangerously short on depth. In the bullpen the only guy I really trust is Morris, plus maybe Hoffman if he continues to age well. I'm open to your premise that they don't need to rebuild from scratch as an organization, but if they really want to compete they're a minimum of 4-5 playoff caliber arms short between the rotation and bullpen, and that's if you really believe in the prospects. Edit: I posted this graphic elsewhere but am including it here too because I think it's useful. This is a table of the bullpen arms who threw a minimum of 20 IP this year and are currently Twins or were primarily Twins this season. I think this is valuable because I directionally agree it feels like the bullpen has gotten better, but I think that's us as fans accepting the impossibly low bar this team set on opening day. If we compare the guys we currently have to the league instead of comparing them to the even worse guys we used to have, I think it becomes more apparent why I'm concerned about the 2027 bullpen.
  9. HeresWaldo
    As a big Bailey Ober fan who doesn't want to see him pushed out of the league I wouldn't mind it, but I don't think it would solve the problem this bullpen faces. The bullpen now is a heck of a lot better than opening day, but it's still got a real lack of upside, and adding Ober would only make that problem worse. I threw together a graphic of Twins relievers who have thrown enough pitches this year that the Pitching+ model can get a decent read on them, and it basically thinks this bullpen is every bit as bad as they looked. What this group needs is more arms that throw hard with at least fringe average control.
  10. HeresWaldo
    As the impending free agent and plausible retirement candidate, Rogers is unlikely to be back next year, but they're going to need to turn over more than one bullpen spot if they are serious about fielding a better team. Minter is also on the way out the door which clears a second spot, but he's another lefty and that still leaves no obvious open spots to upgrade the righty part of the bullpen. One of the current right handed options will need to either be optioned to AAA or outright replaced if they want to avoid repeating this year's mistakes again.
  11. HeresWaldo
    Twenty-ninth feels low to me, but broadly speaking, below average sounds about right. Buxton is amazing, but he's hitting the scary part of the aging curve. I hope he plays his whole career as a Twin, even if that means an extension, but we're rapidly approaching the point where it's not a safe bet that he can carry an otherwise mediocre team on his own for weeks at a time. Pablo is a fabulous dude and a very good pitcher, but he wasn't a stuff monster even before the injury, and he'll be 31 next year with all the question marks that come with returning from Tommy John surgery. Joe Ryan will also be 31 and still hasn't put together a complete, successful major league season. People keep insisting Taj Bradley is making developmental progress, and I'm not saying he's bad. He's a solid player. But his numbers are basically identical to previous years: the great stuff is still there, and severe command issues are still limiting his ceiling. The young guys are exciting, but none of them are true four- or five-tool players. For serious organizations in big cities, the answer would be to take all this legitimately good depth and fill the gap by signing that missing superstar in free agency, but we all know that isn't happening. Even if they spend, it won't be $400+ million on a single player, so I do think this organization is a bit stuck. I still think they're a lot better than 29th in future value, but measurably below average sounds plausible.
  12. HeresWaldo
    Trading Rodriguez would be a huge mistake for two big reasons: 1) You're absolutely right there's a logjam of bat-first players in the organization, but Rodriguez is the only one with plus power. I'm not saying everyone on the team should be a three true outcomes guy, but someone has to hit for power, and it doesn't look like it's going to be Larnach, Jenkins, Mendez, Keashall, Martin, or Gonzalez. 2) This organization is in desperate need of upside, and any Rodriguez trade is going to bring back less upside than he has. Yes there's a chance he turns out to be a bust or he can't get past the injuries, but if he's healthy and pans out he's the only prospect in the system with 30 homer power potential and solid defense. This org has plenty of floor, what it needs are the Rodriguez types. If he goes bust in hindsight it'll look dumb to have kept him, and I was on board with trading him years ago when he was still far away. But trading him off the AAA roster where he's playing very well would be nuts.
  13. HeresWaldo
    Maybe I'm being overly generous, but I really can't find any way to put this on the players. As I watch the Marte drama play out in AZ, I find it really striking how hard this Twins team works. Byron Buxton can barely stand up, needs surgery, and is still pushing himself because he wants to lead by example and show what work ethic looks like. Pablo López has been around all year, including road trips, even though he's recovering from an injury and can't play. It sucks that they're both missing time, but I don't blame anyone for getting hurt, and I think there's a real argument this is one of the hardest-working clubhouses in baseball. I put the blame 90% on ownership for not providing the needed resources and 10% on the front office for not having any sort of bold vision to use their limited resources aggressively.
  14. HeresWaldo
    He's hitting .411/.488/.795 this month. Even setting aside the .411 batting average he could be hitting .250 instead and a .795 slg would still be absurd. He's also walking as often as he strikes out and instantly becomes the best defensive outfielder on the roster other than maybe Kreidler, at least until Buxton is fully healthy again. I'm not saying he'll instantly be great because even amazing prospects often struggle in their first taste of the majors, but he could not have forced the issue more than he did.
  15. HeresWaldo
    To me this is a classic example of an expectations mismatch. To be clear I really like Clemens and think he's been an excellent find, However, taken in context Clemens is having a career year as a bat first good utility regular. He's a lot like Willi Castro in that he can play everywhere but not well defensively, and he's got a great bat for a guy who can play everywhere, but it's not actually a great bat compared to the league's great bats. Again, to reiterate, not a criticism because he's been great, but if he was a former top prospect people would be absolutely furious he hasn't found a defensive home, and instead we're thrilled he's providing the value of a good regular.
  16. HeresWaldo
    Zoll is a smart dude and I know the front office has access to data we don't so I hate to be dismissive, but I think he's pretty clearly wrong. Alan Roden has played in two of the three most recent games. He has below average bat speed, a below average barrel rate, below average sprint speed, and is hitting.230 with no power playing corner outfield. Josh Bell is on an absolutely ridiculous heater, but his overall season numbers are basically as projected and he could sit once a week if needed. Buxton is going to miss a game or two per week to protect his health, which is fine but Keashall is a butcher in center field so those ABs could easily go to Jenkins. Just by giving him Roden's spot and backing up Buxton he can easily play 4-5 times a week. If they rest Bell once a week to play him more that would get him to essentially a full workload while upgrading the defense in center on days Buxton is out. If they really just think he's worse than Roden in right and Keashall in center, fine I guess, and like I said I acknowledge they have data we don't. But I just don't see it.
  17. HeresWaldo
    Personally I value speed over arm in center, and health permitting I'm pretty sure Buxton will be faster than Jenkins even a year from now. Candidly I don't think the next quality center fielder is in the organization right now, so I'd say stick with Buxton until it really becomes a problem or a more obvious candidate arrives. Now, if Buxton shows up to spring training next year with 75th percentile sprint speed that would be different, but at least for now I'm pretty confident he's faster and has more range than Jenkins or Rodriguez. Buxton also has the advantage of being a sprint speed outlier. There are too few of them in the Statcast era for super compelling conclusions to be drawn yet, but there is some evidence that the player type Buxton is a part of really do age better (at least as runners) into their mid-30s, so I wouldn't be super confident that Jenkins will surpass Buxton next season. Downside is if this research is right, once it starts to go for Buxton it'll go quickly, but he may very well be able to put up similar numbers to his current ones in center 2 years from now, again health permitting.
  18. HeresWaldo
    They've performed well and Morris in particular is interesting with that deeper pitch mix. I don't think either of them will ever come even remotely close to Duran though. A triple digit fastball not being the best strikeout weapon in the arsenal of a groundball pitcher with solid control is extremely uncommon. Duran was essentially a video game character come to life, and without some very significant luck or a blockbuster trade to bring someone in we aren't going to be replacing him any time soon. Best case scenario both guys are as good as Jax, which would still be nice, but we're unlikely to ever replicate a duo as good as the one the included Duran.
  19. HeresWaldo
    Good catch and yes I am
  20. HeresWaldo
    Good Lord I need coffee, yes I 100% am.
  21. HeresWaldo
    Hancock isn't happening for a package where Larnach plays any kind of meaningful role. I like Larnach, but Hancock is the best pitching prospect in baseball and a concensus top 5 globally. He's probably off-limits under any circumstance, but in a world where we could get him the package would probably look something like him for Joe Ryan + ERod + another of our top 5 prospects. I keep seeing things on this site that suggest we should trade for him and I do not understand why anyone thinks that's got even a remote chance of happening. If hypothetically someone managed to trade for him the headline player going the other way would be a superstar capable of joining Julio as a face of their franchise.
  22. HeresWaldo
    "That doesn't necessarily mean the Twins are about to land one of baseball's elite prospects". Well don't trade him then. Tom Froemming pointed out last night that the Twins are actually tied for the 3rd best record in the AL since June 1st. In that span - which is a significant part of the season - they've been better than the White Sox, Guardians, Rays, Yankees, and Mariners who are also fighting for playoff spots. Yes Jeffers could bring something back in trade because he's good, but we could also just let him be a good player on our pretty good team and try to win some games in October. If the Yankees want to send us Lombard or some other team wants to make a clearly unwise decision on that level, let them. But why are we trading away premium players off a pretty good roster in exchange for prospects who wouldn't crack the top five in our minor league system? We should be lightly buying not selling.
  23. HeresWaldo
    Certainly fair to say that's how a lot of front offices now think. My problem with that approach though is if you follow that line of thinking you'll always end up focused on the future and never be able to justify trying in the now. Any good veteran major leaguer can by definition return more years of future asset control with theoretically similar or higher ceilings, but personally that doesn't interest me as much as just having a good team. Look at the Rays. They're the model franchise and they always maximize asset value. And yet they have managed zero championships with this approach. And honestly I'm fine with that because I'm not into Rings Culture, but they're also not drawing fans to the park during the regular season because they trade away every player fans fall in love with, and I think that's a huge problem. Personally I'm of the opinion that it's okay to try building something even if it means taking on some current and future risk.
  24. HeresWaldo
    That would certainly be one way to do it, and probably a way I'd be more supportive of. And to be clear I'm not trying to be a bummer here with my original comment. I just think people are vastly overrating how good the median outcome will be for the return we'd get for Ryan. Of course there's always a chance we get our next star because that's true in any trade (look no further than Cruz for Ryan) but on the whole that's probably not a likely outcome in the same way it's unlikely that Seattle wants to give us the best pitching prospect in baseball in exchange for a pitcher with lesser stuff and less team control. Where I'm at is that Joe Ryan is a really good and desirable player, but we're probably not going to get a kings ransom for him so why not just keep the really good desirable player and try to be a good team? And if someone wants to wildly overpay and send us a potential future Cy Young candidate let them, but short of that why not just keep the All Star?
  25. HeresWaldo
    They did work out though, that's my point. For guys of their prospect caliber, both reaching the majors for more than a cup of coffee across multiple seasons is a better than 50th percentile outcome. Prospects are fun to dream on, but outside the concensus top 10 or so most of them are going to turn out this way, especially in the 75-200 range where they were. Like I said, if the Mariners want to do something insane and send us the literal best pitching prospect in baseball who is also the global #1 on at least one major list, by all means let them. But if you focus on the kinds of less fun names that would actually be attainable in a Ryan trade suddenly it starts to look a lot less appealing and another Martin/SWR type of return starts to feel like a plausible result.
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