The Louis Varland Trade Keeps Looking Worse

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © William Liang-Imagn Images

The Twins’ frenzy at last year’s trade deadline had plenty of understandable sell-offs, but by the end, it seemed that they leaned into their willingness to deal relievers a bit too far. Dumping Louis Varland at the last minute of the trade deadline felt like the front office was a bit too confident in themselves. Almost a year later, that deal doesn’t look any better.

The return for Varland was immediately worth questioning. The Twins cited Kendry Rojas as the main piece that pushed them over the edge. A borderline top 100 prospect, Rojas was coming off back-to-back seasons considerably shortened by injuries. That, paired with some flashes of control concerns, had already flagged him as a reliever risk. His high 90s fastball from the left side, paired with a plus slider, gave him upside, but the floor was difficult to ignore. 

Rojas debuted with the Saints immediately after the trade and posted a 6.59 ERA in 8 starts. He surprisingly made his MLB debut this season, but it was interrupted by a triceps injury that cost him a month. In his 16 innings of big league action, his 18.3% walk rate has kept him from helping the Twins’ pitching-needy roster. He’s since been demoted back to Triple-A.

The other piece of the trade was even more of an eyebrow raiser. Perhaps the one position in the organization that could be considered a legitimate log jam was left-handed hitting outfielder. The Twins couldn’t help but feed their obsession with collecting this type of player, and acquired Alan Roden (bringing the total to three lefty corner outfielders acquired at the deadline). Unfortunately, he was injured immediately after being acquired and did not make the 2026 opening-day roster. He missed even more time with a shoulder injury this spring and hasn’t played at the MLB level this offseason despite a near 1.000 OPS as a 26-year-old in St. Paul because there’s simply no room for him.

The Twins went on to declare themselves contenders for the 2026 season, and that has arguably played out, given the American League's weakness and their high-scoring offense. Their biggest issue has been the bullpen, which they chose to almost completely ignore in the offseason after their bullpen fire sale.

Trading Varland always seemed like one step too far. It left the 2026 roster with absolutely nothing to turn to in the bullpen, and the team’s payroll and hubris regarding relievers have made the group a flammable mess that has undoubtedly cost the team countless games so far in 2026. While nobody expected Varland to be one of the best relievers in baseball this season, even if he performed at his 2025 level, he would have been the anchor of the Twins' bullpen.

There was no reason to trade Varland unless they were blown away by an offer. That offer turned out to be a position player they didn’t need and a high-variance pitching prospect who very well may be bullpen-bound before long himself. The organizational belief that relievers don’t matter was on full display with the Varland trade, and it has immediately cost them in a season where the rest of the league has allowed them to hang around in the wild card standings. Simply not having a bottom-five bullpen in baseball would have this team firmly positioned in a playoff spot.

Perhaps the Twins will trade away assets to bring in relief help, an ironic outcome that would further paint the Varland trade as a mistake. Maybe Rojas can stick as a starting pitcher long term and make the trade a net win in value for the Twins. That won’t change the fact that this deal was a major self-inflicted blow to their ability to compete in 2026, which was their self-stated goal.

If Rojas sticks as a starting pitcher over the course of his Twins career, the Twins can come out on the other side of this deal as winners down the line. They’ll still have taken an immediate hit in 2026, and what we’ve seen from Rojas so far doesn’t make this scenario look particularly likely. Perhaps Varland wouldn’t have been enough to hold this bullpen together. At the very least, his performance this year would have been worth more in trade if the Twins hadn’t decided they had no choice but to dump a controllable player at a position they needed for whatever they could get.

There’s no way around it: The Varland trade looks bad. There’s still a path for it to turn around if Rojas sticks in the rotation, but that was not a sure thing when he was required, and has only looked less likely since he came to the Twins. The Twins took things one step too far at the 2025 trade deadline, and an immediately unpopular trade has only looked worse since.

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[weitz41]

I get it, but being the 22nd worst BP with him, rather than the 25th worst isn't the issue for me. It's the lack of investment in the BP during the off season that makes this trade go from "WHY?" to "WTF!"

Roden only makes sense if you're moving Larnach and/or Wallner in the offseason. But again...nothing. Compounding the odd or unneeded trade.

Rojas. It's just too soon for me to judge. 

 

[Twins GFP]

While the trade seemed odd at the time, no one will really know why the trade was made. Were there behind-the-scenes issues? Did someone of importance want him gone? Did the Twins truly believe he was not going to help them long term? Did they believe they received better value in return?

A half-season of a reliever is about the most unreliable thing you can base results on. While the trade looks bad now, it will take a few years to truly see the results.

[bean5302]

Nobody expected Varland to blossom into this kind of production. He projected like a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA unspectacular reliever with the Twins. Varland, for years, gave up tons of very hard contact. Batters tee'd off with high barrel rates, squared up rates and hard hit rates. Now, he has low exit velocities, and he's baffling hitters by not allowing barrels with huge gains in command and better stuff by dropping bad performing pitches.

The explosion of performance puts a lot of heat on the front office and pitching coaches, though. Varland ditched his sinker, brought back a much improved changeup and he's dominated. I've long felt the new front office was "meet the new boss, same as the old boss!" in terms of forcing players to fit into the mold of productivity the front office believes in at the team level.

Will Varland be able to keep this up? Yeah. It looks like it (though he won't maintain the sub 1.00 ERA) Also... Brent Headrick. He's been great for the Yankees. I thought Headrick would struggle to provide any value out of the bullpen, but he's looking very solid.

Anyway, as good as Varland has become, Rojas is still worth a lot more if he can lock down a rotation spot. If the Twins' front office had done their job and shored up the bullpen like they absolutely needed to, there would be a whole lot less frustration around here.

[CRF]

Just another genius move by Falvey. 

[Eris]

While I agree that the Varland trade looked bad at the time and looks worse now and also seemed unnecessary as he is not a free agent until 2031.  

Are the 2026 Twins W/L record worse because of the trade.  The Twins staff has 55 holds (5th most, tied with Atlanta and the LA Dodgers).  They have 24 saves (12th tied with the Athletics, Toronto has 28 which is 4th).  Blown saves the Twins have 11 (14th in MLB, tied with Toronto).  Cleveland has 8 BS (4th in MLB).  To me these numbers don't jump out as bad and it seems unlikely that the Twins would be in first place in the Central with Varland.  All data is from Fangraphs.

In terms of the glut of left-handed hitting outfielders that we have been reading about for years on TD, that also needs qualifying.  What the Twins do not have is left-handed hitting outfielders who have demonstrated that they can hit MLB pitching and play good defense and are durable.  I am not sure if Alan Roden is a solution.  He has also been hurt at a time when he most likely would have had an opportunity with the Twins.

 

[HarmonK03]

7 minutes ago, Eris said:

In terms of the glut of left-handed hitting outfielders that we have been reading about for years on TD, that also needs qualifying.  What the Twins do not have is left-handed hitting outfielders who have demonstrated that they can hit MLB pitching and play good defense and are durable.  I am not sure if Alan Roden is a solution.  He has also been hurt at a time when he most likely would have had an opportunity with the Twins.

 

This is the point, they already had a number of LH hitting corner outfielders they needed to look at and also added one more at the deadline prior to this trade.  Why would you add another to this mix.  If you are going to make this move at least try and get someone that is either a proven player or for a position that you need like maybe a RH hitting outfielder which was probably more of a need at the time.

[rdehring]

Here we go again, another article bashing the Twins for a trade they made last July. 

When any team trades a player for prospects no one, I repeat no one will know the outcome for several years until those prospects have had time to either fail to make the big leagues or arrive, so we know what they are capable of doing.  Halfway thru this year certainly isn't time for any conclusion on who won the trade.  Maybe a year from now we will have an idea who won the trade.  Or two years?

[Brandon]

I don't think Varland pitches that good here,  Rojas is a really good prospect, Roden can be useful.  This trade is better than the Berrios trade.  Give Rojas a chance to shine.  Also did Varland want out?  I think he wanted opportunity to start.  

[HeresWaldo]

Fun fact: Varland would be the Twins most valuable pitcher if he were still on the roster. He's ahead of both Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley in bWAR this season.

[TJSweens]

22 minutes ago, HeresWaldo said:

Fun fact: Varland would be the Twins most valuable pitcher if he were still on the roster. He's ahead of both Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley in bWAR this season.

That might mean something if I put any stock in a stat from the WAR family.

[jaimedude]

I think kendrys Rojas will be a quality starter when it us all said and done. What is he 23 years old? 

[Maybebaby]

Just the front office once again waving their not so magic wand again!  All they get are fairy farts!

[Glorybound]

It’s not about winning or losing a trade that makes this deal just down right stupid. It’s the fact that the Twins were going to need a closer after trading away Duran. Varland was cheap and controllable, both of what the Twins need. Not having a closer this season is very telling how serious they are about winning in 26. Any one with a bit of foresight could see Varland was capable of some high leverage late inning possibilities. Those guys don’t grow on trees by the way. You can’t fix stupid.

[Danchat]

My issue with the trade is that Roden is seemingly being treated like a throw-in and Rojas seems to be the key to the trade - but trading 5 years of control of a good reliever for a single pitching prospect, a notoriously risky asset, is not good business. Yes, we didn't foresee Varland becoming an elite closer, but putting all of Varland's trade value into Rojas instead of more prospects wasn't a good call. They easily could have waited until 2026/27 to trade him.

Roden has had troubles staying healthy, but he's been good to go for a few weeks now and is raking in AAA. I don't know if he will be a useful major league player, but what's the point in postponing finding out what they have in him? He's had something like 600 PAs in AAA with very few struggles mixed in there, now is the time to play him. Frankly, they should trade him for what they can get because what's the point of holding on to him? If Jenkins and Rodriguez and others like Mendez are going to get chances over him, why not cash him in at the trade deadline for something they might use?

[HerbieFan]

Under Falvey it seems like the org did a very poor job of self-scouting.  So many guys have left and done better....Varland, Brent Headrick, Trevor Megill, Jeff Hoffman......  Seems at every turn they chose to keep the wrong guy.

[dxpavelka]

Can i find a reputable baseball mind that judges a trade after 11 months?  Nope.

 

[Jim H]

I have wondered what the Twins were trying to accomplish with their deadline deals trading expiring contracts and their entire effective bullpen. They clearly added a couple lottery ticket low level catchers. That made some sense. Catching was/is an organizational weakness. 

They also acquired a whole pile of currently starting pitcher prospects. Mostly upper minors or limited majors exposure. This makes some sense. No organization has enough quality major league starters and dominate relievers are almost always former starters who fail to stick as major league starters.

The biggest question was why did they prioritize adding 3 left-handed hitting corner outfielders Outman, Roden, and Mendez. This only makes sense if you think they can be better than what you already have in the majors or upper minors. If you never make room for these guys to play at the major league level, why did you make the trades?

Even though Larnarch is playing well right now as platoon leftfielder and Wallner has a track record of some major league success, neither figures to have a real place in the future of the Twins.  A rational observer has to wonder why they are still here. Is keeping them around worth some limited current value or some theoretical better future return?

[David HK]

I will never forgive them for this.

NEVER.

[TopGunn#22]

I can agree that it's far too early to judge this trade.  However, to echo a couple of thoughts that I have agreed with from the announcement of the trade:

1.  We had 5 more years of control of Varland.  Once the Twins committed to trading Duran and Jax, Varland was the obvious choice to take over as Closer.  At the time of the trade, Varland had a 2.02 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 49 innings with the Twins.  He had clearly turned a corner and at 27 years old, at least to me, did NOT project to be a 3.50-4.00 ERA relief pitcher for at least the next couple years.  I'll admit he has exceeded my expectations so far in 2026 and he will certainly regress "somewhat."  But in terms of roster construction he was the clear candidate to take over,  There also appears to have never been a plan to add a legit Closer.  This is the root of my frustration with Pohlad ownership and every subsequent front office since Andy McPhail.  There just doesn't ever seem to be a plan that is aggressively pursued.  The Twins hang back and dumpster dive.   

2.  While Rojas still has the potential to turn into a decent if not good SP (Santana, Liriano and even back to Tom Hall are decent examples) the perceived strength of the Twins was SP, at least until Pablo Lopez, Mick Abel and Bailey Ober went down.  We gutted our BP and had no obvious Closer other than Varland.  Alan Roden could be a decent MLB player, but the plan after this trade should have been trading Matt Wallner AND Trevor Larnach to better balance the talent on our roster and open a path for Walker Jenkins and E-Rod.  Trading Wallner and Larnach could have provided the Twins with a pitcher or 2 who would have been better BP options for the Twins.  Shockingly, both are still in the Twins system.  

This is not a "hindsight is 20-10" for me.  I actually embraced most of the Twins "burning down the bullpen" trades last year.  But I never liked this one, especially the rushed nature of it, coming about 2 minutes before midnight.  

[Linus]

Too early to judge. There is a scenario where it works out as Rojas has potential. I am not worried about having too many left handed hitting outfielders. Jenkins is as sure a thing as you can get with a prospect. But the rest of the group (Em Rod, Roden, Mendez) are hardly sure things. Would not surprise me at all that one or none end up being a bona fide big leaguer.  If we get lucky and end up with a couple they can be traded. 

[darin617]

Right now the Twins clearly lost the trade. If they kept Varland they would have probably won at least 6 more games.

 

 

[Jacksson]

5 hours ago, Eris said:

 "The Twins staff has 55 holds (5th most, tied with Atlanta and the LA Dodgers)." Because of the way in which the Twins use relievers, an inning at a time, in a game with a lead that isn't lost, there can be 3-4 holds in a single game.

"They have 24 saves (12th tied with the Athletics, Toronto has 28 which is 4th)." Because the starters only last 5 innings and the last pitcher only has to get 3 outs. Also, the "SAVE" can be misleading as was the case with Gomez recently when with a 5-3 lead he came in and cut the lead to 5-4 before getting out of the inning; and that was called a "Save"?  More like a "you almost blew it". 

"Blown saves the Twins have 11 (14th in MLB, tied with Toronto)."  When the team is down in the game, beyond hope, there is little opportunity for a blown save.  I question that statistic as there have been games when the save is blown and the next pitcher puts the game further out of reach.  What about the frequent times the team is behind and by the time the relievers get through, the game is further out of reach?  What kind of stat is collected for those opportunities? Cleveland has 8 BS (4th in MLB).  "To me these numbers don't jump out as bad."  What about stats for: Walks by relievers, HBP by relievers and Inherited Runners Scored??

 

 

 

 

[Twodogs]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

I don't think Varland pitches that good here,  Rojas is a really good prospect, Roden can be useful.  This trade is better than the Berrios trade.  Give Rojas a chance to shine.  Also did Varland want out?  I think he wanted opportunity to start.  

He played high school and college in St. Paul, I dont think he wanted out.  In fact I think he was actually a little upset when he got traded.  Unlike Jax who I think may have requested a trade.  

[Twodogs]

49 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Right now the Twins clearly lost the trade. If they kept Varland they would have probably won at least 6 more games.

 

 

6 games is a lot for one player, not saying it couldn't be 6.  But im pretty sure we could go through the schedule right now and find 3 games for sure where he makes the difference.   But think about that, if we can flip 3 games the Twins would be above .500???

[JADBP]

Of all the of last year’s trade inanity, this one stands out as blatantly pathetic.  Here’s a solid pitcher that had clearly found his groove, was pitching very well, few injuries, filling an urgent need (especially after the other trades), and with five years of low cost team control left.  I can confidently say that every team in the league would have traded for Varland for a couple of iffy, unneeded MiLBers if given the chance. So WTF happened?

•  Varland was a low cost pitcher (almost league minimum, pre-arb).  So it wasn’t a salary dump 

•  We had just traded away most of the BP so he clearly was a needed position on the team  

•  He had no history of significant injuries   

•  The key return was a SP that was pushed aggressively through the TOR minors to get to AAA ASAP.  He was rushed  and seems oft injured and unprepared.  He just seems far more risky that Varland (not that any P is without risk).  

•  The 2nd return was a LF OFer which we clearly didn’t need (likely the throw in to close the deal). 

So, while it is early, it appears today to be another badly lopsided trade.  So why did Falvey do this trade?  I have only one explanation: 

It has been reported that once the Twins started their trading madness many teams started piling on with offers trying to get in on the action   It became a feeding frenzy.  At the last minute, thinking he might have one more trade available (and having missed out on trading Ryan or Larnach), he bit on Torontos offer.  Maybe TOR had to throw in Roden at the last minute to. Close the deal. Falvey was so wrapped up in the frenzy he really didn’t take the time to think this one through in that last minute.  What does Roden do for the team?  How good is Varland vs Rojas?   But 5 years of control…just moving it forward with Rojas? 
 

I still contend that Falvey got wrapped up in the frenzy of nearly every team calling him with offers left and right.  He clearly had no plan (other than shed CC’s salary and expiring contracts).  Things just got flying so fast and furious that he didn’t take the time to make intelligent, thoughtful decisions   
 

….For which he SHOULD HAVE been fired.  The Varland trade was unconscionable.  I am soooo glad that Falvey got the boot!