The Most Encouraging Early-Season Stories for the Twins Have, Sadly, Faded Fast

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

When Derek Shelton came aboard as manager, he brought with him a new mantra: "hunt the good." The idea was that, in a game often defined by failure, you've got to focus on the successes and wins where you can. 

Foreseeing plenty of failure as I looked ahead to this Twins season, it was a mindset I tried to adopt. I have to remind myself that this site was founded (in 2012) amidst a long stretch of constant losing for the franchise, but during those times we still found ways to enjoy following along. You search for the small positives and appreciate them — especially those with potentially significant future ramifications. 

As we checked in at the one-third point of the season a couple weeks ago, I found several heartening trends worth focusing on. Battling through myriad injuries and setbacks, the Twins were showing resilience. They had just pulled out of a tailspin with seven wins in their past nine games, drawing within a game of .500 and positioning themselves in the wild-card race. 

Since then, they've lost 11 of 15, falling back to eight games below .500 and to a 90-loss pace. Unfortunately, most of the bright spots that I called out at the time have taken a sharp turn downward turn, and in some cases the writing was one the wall even then. Let's check in on the primary contributors and factors that were keeping the Twins relevant.

Fantastic starting rotation: Lately, not so much. Through May 27th, Twins starters ranked ninth in the majors in fWAR; since then they rank 27th. Bailey Ober's charmed run came to and end with a pair of clunkers preceding an IL trip for elbow inflammation. Taj Bradley's performance has tailed off dramatically, as has Connor Prielipp's. Simeon Woods Richardson got DFA'ed.

Austin Martin and Trevor Larnach breakouts: Martin had a .900 OPS at the start of May. Since then he's slashing .216/.285/.288, with a .440 OPS in his past 24 games. Larnach is hitting .189 with a .610 OPS since May 27th.

Ryan Jeffers on track for a career year: He had just gotten injured, and will still be out for several more weeks. When he turns he'll be just months from free agency, and a possible trade candidate.

Shockingly effective bullpen: They were on a great run in late May, inching upward on the leaderboard after an expectedly rough start to the year. With Luis García and Justin Topa recently jettisoned, there was some hope that some of level of success would sustain. Nope. Since May 27th, Minnesota's bullpen ranks 26th in baseball with a 6.16 ERA and 28th in WPA.

Derek Shelton resonance: I said at the time that I was lukewarm on this vibe because the Twins had plenty of hot streaks over the past couple of years under Rocco Baldelli, and they were ultimately outweighed by prolonged losing spells. So far that's been the case here too, and in fact with the way the team is trending — outscored by 45 runs during this latest 15-game stretch — you could argue that things are starting to go off the rails under his watch.

So what positives remain? Frightfully few. Byron Buxton continues to absolutely crush when he's in the lineup and has been easily the biggest highlight on the team. Joe Ryan keeps turning in excellent outings to fuel his trade value. Kody Clemens has been one of the few red-hot hitters in the lineup over the past couple weeks, though it says a lot that he ranks third among Twins position players in fWAR as a journeyman role player.

Slim pickings outside of a few select players, none of whom are really positioned as future building blocks. Then again, if this team has reminded us of anything, it's how many ups and downs can take place over the course of an MLB season. Any of the downward-trending guys mentioned above — Martin, Larnach, Bradley, Prielipp — could do an about-face and resume their ascent at any time. Royce Lewis is back and has taken some good swings. Moreover, help is on the way.

Alan Roden is rehabbing from injury in Triple-A and could join the big-league club sometime soon. Ditto Mick Abel, whose return would do much to jolt a staggered rotation. Fellow 2026 deadline acquisition Hendry Mendez has been on a tear for the Saints and is a candidate for a second-half promotion, if the Twins can find room for him.

One guy they'll have no trouble finding room for is Kaelen Culpepper, the top prospect who is excelling at Triple-A and in line for an imminent call-up. He's become the main source of optimism and excitement for demoralized Twins fans, although as I wrote earlier this week, that places a pretty heavy burden on his shoulders. If he comes up and struggles it won't be any kind of indictment on his future, but it will be another drop in the bucket of 2026 malaise. 

We'll see if the Twins and their key players have another burst of resilience in them. If not, we could be in for a dreary second half. Last year's team went 34-61 after this date. If this year's club were to play at the same pace the rest of the way they'd finish 64-98. Only three Twins teams have lost more games (2016, 2011, 1982). Gonna be hard to hunt much good out of that.

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[mikelink45]

Too true! The team is just mediocre. The lineup lacks any real excitement. Jeffers going down really diminished the lineup. The rotation has been damaged by injury, but also by his own and ineptitude. 

I had hoped for a lot more from Morris and Adams. It looks like Parades is the best of the call-ups.  

The team needs a jolt. DFA for SWR seem like the message but they need to follow that up with more moves. Right now the leather she is spreading among twin fans.  

[Glorybound]

I was never on board that this was a .500 team. Might as well continue with the rebuild at the trade deadline. Once you start a rebuild as they clearly did last season you have to continue the process. There is a chance that they have some future stars in the young players but one never knows for sure. The mental makeup of some of the developing players might need some refining. Royce Lewis comes to mind and maybe a couple of pitchers fall into this category as well.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, to carry on from my response to the post about their resilience....this team isn't good at anything.  They are pretty much middling to bad in every category but hope two stars can carry them to 2 wins a week.  That's a great model for hitting the under on 72.5.

Anyone expecting Shelton to have made a major difference overrates the impact of a manager in baseball.  Especially modern baseball.

Ultimately, tlent wins and this team is (and has been for awhile) low on talent.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Here's a positive for all of us at TD. It is time to start writing articles about the 2027 Draft Prospects, since the Twins will once more have a early pick in that draft too.  ( Here you may laugh along with me, as the tears roll down our cheeks.) Reminds me of a song we Twins fans sing every April. "The wheels on the Twins bus go round and round, round and round, round and round"...............I have added a new verse for us Twins fans to sing. "Let's sing along with this happy tune, until the wheels fall off in June."

[big dog]

This team has to quit trying to kinda sorta be not terrible this year. Sorry, Tommy P, that's the best you can claim to be doing. Look to the future. Release the utility infielders. Release Bell. See what you can get for Larnach. Bring up the kids and let them play. What is taking so long to figure this out? 

[Trov]

This is why you play 162 and not just 60.  Going into the year, most fans expected a near last place finish in the division, knew our offense was going to struggle, starting pitching was a big question mark, and pen was going to be bad.  With the hot start of some hitters and great starting pitching and passible pen over first 2 months fans had hope we could be like Major League and come together for something.  However, the flaws are starting to really show and the team is starting to do what we expected to begin the season. 

[Blyleven2011]

They suck you in to 1 game below 500 and spit you out to 8 games below  500 ...

Just no consistency and riddled with injuries and players not up to the task of playing MLB baseball  ...

[bean5302]

This team is playing about how most people expected them to play. The hot start was fun, but the players the Twins needed to lead weren't able to lead performance-wise.

I think there are plenty of bright spots still. Taj Bradley may have struggled recently, but there was some sustained success there. Mick Abel and Connor Prielipp have both looked like they might stick long term in a rotation as well. Not a ton past that point, though, heh.

[rdehring]

Thanks, Nick.  And yes, there haven't been a lot of bright spots of late.  Unfortunately, so many of the young prospects we were hoping would give the team a boost are injured and their arrival time delayed.  The good news is several are nearing returning to the field with their arrival hopefully around the all-star break.  Or trade deadline.  

Add me to the list of those agreeing with the article, was it yesterday?, about time for the Twins to plan for 2028.

[Saxophone Joe]

Screw it, I'm predicting a vibe shift & a series win against the red-hot Cardinals! Who's with me? Peter? 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, big dog said:

This team has to quit trying to kinda sorta be not terrible this year. Sorry, Tommy P, that's the best you can claim to be doing. Look to the future. Release the utility infielders. Release Bell. See what you can get for Larnach. Bring up the kids and let them play. What is taking so long to figure this out? 

There are very few kids to bring up and let play. Culpepper and Mendez are the only players making a case for a promotion. Fedko and Sabato are not young - they look a lot more like the 28-year-old castoffs they pick up on waivers from other organizations. Roden, Rodriguez and Jenkins are dealing with injuries. Gonzalez has been struggling at the plate in an easy league to hit in. All the AAA pitching is up and Wichita is barren of talent. 

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Add me to the list of those agreeing with the article, was it yesterday?, about time for the Twins to plan for 2028.

2028 is starting to feel optimistic for a turnaround. Their only method of acquiring major league players appears to be the waiver wire. They have squandered their trade value for a rebuild foolishly chasing 80 wins in 2026.

[hitterscount]

I'm not sure what this organization does well. I was one that believed that the starting rotation was the streng thof the team, even after the Lopez injury. However, Ober's velocity never made it back into the low 90's and noy injured again, Abel injured and much like Bradley cannot seem to find the strike zone consistently. Ryan has been really good, unfortunately one reliable starter won't get it done. 

A lineup with 5-6 utility players in their 30's is not serious. Another 1st base signing of a decent player 5-6 years prior to the start of the season leaves another hole.... at least Santana could play defense. The philosophy of moving guys around the field is lame and rears to the downfalls too often in the form of shoddy defense. 

Then there is the minors, there's Cullpeper who they refuse to call up and a bunch of injured players. I have concerns that if you can't stay healthy as a 20-22 y.o. in the minors you will have problems in the majors on top of stunting development. Some  promising position guys if they can stay healthy for any length of time.... however, the pitching pipeline is weak. 

The Brewers, Rays, and now the White Sox seem to have figured out how to stay competitive with a small budget, we are no where near fielding a competitive team. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, big dog said:

This team has to quit trying to kinda sorta be not terrible this year. Sorry, Tommy P, that's the best you can claim to be doing. Look to the future. Release the utility infielders. Release Bell. See what you can get for Larnach. Bring up the kids and let them play. What is taking so long to figure this out? 

It all starts at the top, and Tom P so far is showing he's even more incompetent than Joe P on the baseball side of things. Pressing the pause button on a rebuild already in motion, slashing the budget even further than last year, and simply stating we're going to be competitive... Yeah, anyone that's followed baseball for a little bit of time could have told Tom this was a terrible plan.

[Linus]

I think there are several reasons we where we are:

1 Falvey early drafting strategy drafting bat first players

2 Lack of development 

3 Maybe most importantly being indecisive about roster construction. Larnach is a good example - we should have moved on and pursued other better options but whatever method they used to decide told them to hang on.  
I don’t think there is any doubt now that you have to finish the teardown at the deadline. People are all excited about our farm system. I don’t see it. Hopefully Culpepper makes it and Jenkins will be good. That’s two guys and we need upgrades all over the place. The one bright spot is starting pitching- truly something to build around. 

[Whitey333]

Nice article Nick.  It's one thing to lose that's bad enough.  But overall they play poo baseball.  Buxton?  20 Homer's is very good.  He finally hit a 3 run Homer the other day.  But he's not Mr. Clutch.  I believe he is 0 for 23 this season with runners in scoring position with 2 outs.  Draft picks?  Hard to get too excited by the Twins upcoming draft based on their history the past several years.  I hope they turn it around soon. It would be nice to watch the Twins play good baseball .

[Andy MacPhail]

The last few years, the Twins have looked very good on paper but couldn't execute, which resulted in disappointing seasons. Last year dead-line devestated the BP & line-up, I was especially disappointed with the Varland trade. If we kept Varland, we'd have won most of the close games we lost, sustaining the momentum of those winning streaks. That alone would have made the difference between a struggling team to a competitor.

We needed a closer this offseason, a trade of one of our abundant LH hitting cOFers would have sufficed. Staking the Twins' BP future on losing lotto tickets isn't the pragmatic way to go. Supposingly, it's more difficult to make trades after the off-season. Yet, the Twins need to find a way to make it happen. We can still make it to the post season if we do. A winning attitude is so important.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Screw it, I'm predicting a vibe shift & a series win against the red-hot Cardinals! Who's with me? Peter? 

I agree that it is time for the Twins to pull us back in, so that in July our hopes and dreams can be smashed like rotten watermelons. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Andy MacPhail said:

The last few years, the Twins have looked very good on paper but couldn't execute, which resulted in disappointing seasons. Last year dead-line devestated the BP & line-up, I was especially disappointed with the Varland trade. If we kept Varland, we'd have won most of the close games we lost, sustaining the momentum of those winning streaks. That alone would have made the difference between a struggling team to a competitor.

We needed a closer this offseason, a trade of one of our abundant LH hitting cOFers would have sufficed. Staking the Twins' BP future on losing lotto tickets isn't the pragmatic way to go. Supposingly, it's more difficult to make trades after the off-season. Yet, the Twins need to find a way to make it happen. We can still make it to the post season if we do. A winning attitude is so important.

I agree. Winning attitudes breed success. Conversely, success breeds a winning attitudes. Which comes first? 

[karcherd]

26 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It all starts at the top, and Tom P so far is showing he's even more incompetent than Joe P on the baseball side of things. Pressing the pause button on a rebuild already in motion, slashing the budget even further than last year, and simply stating we're going to be competitive... Yeah, anyone that's followed baseball for a little bit of time could have told Tom this was a terrible plan.

First of all I don't want Tom P. making any decisions on the baseball side of things, that was Falvey's and now Zoll's job.  His role is to approve or deny the plan and provide the resources.  We don't know that Falvey was in full rebuild mode, if so why were Jeffers, Ryan and Lopez all still here.  Falvey didn't leave until right before spring training.  He signed Josh Bell on December 19th two days after the announcement about the changes in the front office.  That signing shows a sign of trying to compete.  And up until that point Falvey was making sure everyone he knew that he didn't know his budget for next year. So if you are rebuilding and don't know your budget why squander limited funds on a signing like Bell if you are in a rebuild.

Falvey never bought into the rebuild because he knew he had cover being in a weak division, he could try and straddle the line and sign bargain basement free agents because it was all he needed to be competitive in the division.

Where ownership screwed up was not getting their house in order early last fall so that there was clear direction being give to management for the offseason.  Zoll needs to present a plan of how to make the Twins competitive and get buy in from ownership.  The problem is I don't think Zoll is capable and that again is on Tommy P., he needs a competent baseball executive to provide the direction for this team.

[Linus]

19 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I agree. Winning attitudes breed success. Conversely, success breeds a winning attitudes. Which comes first? 

Talented ball players.