Is Justin Topa a Surprise DFA Candidate This Spring?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The day Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers reported to the Lee Health Sports Complex in beautiful Fort Myers, Florida, freshly anointed head baseball executive Jeremy Zoll made two noteworthy late-offseason bullpen acquisitions, trading for left-handed reliever Anthony Banda from the Los Angeles Dodgers and signing right-handed reliever Liam Hendriks to a minor-league deal. Two days later, the club signed veteran southpaw Andrew Chafin to a minor-league contract, completing a flurry of mid-February signings designed to improve the club’s bullpen.

Banda, Hendriks, and Chafin join Cole Sands, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, Eric Orze, Travis Adams, Marco Raya, Zak Kent, John Klein, Dan Altavilla, and others competing to fill the eight-pitcher unit. A talent- and depth-deficient unit entering the offseason, Minnesota’s bullpen has become crowded with a mix of veteran and inexperienced candidates, creating one of the more wide-open camp competitions in recent Twins history. Barring injury, Sands, Rogers, and Banda are the only three relievers guaranteed spots in the club’s Opening Day bullpen. If Hendriks and Chafin resemble what they've been in seasons past, the two veterans on minor-league deals are favorites to earn spots. The final three spots remain up for grabs as the calendar flips to March, with one aforementioned veteran arm potentially becoming a surprise omission from the club’s Opening Day pen.

 

Earning a 3.90 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and a 49-to-18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings pitched, Topa performed well last season. The veteran righty also stepped in as one of the Twins' most reliable late-inning arms after the front office parted ways with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, Brock Stewart, and Danny Coulombe at the trade deadline, working his way to a 3.31 ERA and notching four saves from Aug. 1 through Sept. 7. Unfortunately, the then-34-year-old missed the rest of his 2025 campaign after suffering a left oblique strain. Despite the unceremonious end to his first full season with Minnesota, Topa appeared to be a shoo-in for a spot entering the offseason. However, the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s early spring struggles could result in an unexpected end to his Twins’ tenure.

 

To preface, I want to recognize that I am about to analyze an exceptionally small performance sample of work. I also understand that it is still early March, and there’s a strong likelihood that Topa is still in the “ramp-up” phase of his spring program. Still, his underlying metrics suggest the wily veteran’s days as an effective major-league reliever may be coming to an end, evidenced by the chart below (courtesy of TJStats):

 

 

Topa is generating a lot of swings, which is typically a positive sign, especially for relievers. Unfortunately, hitters are making a lot of contact and doing tons of damage upon intercepting the pitch, resulting in a catastrophic zone contact rate and barrel rate. His well-below-average barrel rate is particularly concerning, given that his past success with Seattle and Minnesota was largely the product of missing barrels with his plus sinker and sweeper. If Topa is unable to miss barrels and generate weak contact, he would become an unusable arm, with too many whammies like this one ruining outings of any consequence. Like this:

 

Topa’s early struggles are especially concerning given that there is no real dip in his velocity compared to last season. In his two appearances against Boston this spring, there was essentially no change in his sinker, sweeper, cutter, or changeup velocity, compared to his 2025 averages. That being the case, the primary factors behind his 27.00 ERA and 13.47 FIP over 1 2/3 innings pitched are diminished movement and poor command or execution. Again, I understand that I am talking about less than two innings pitched. Yet, given that fellow bullpen candidates Orze, Funderburk, Altavilla, Klein, and Raya (from a stuff perspective) are off to strong starts this spring, Topa and his $1.23-million contract could end up on the chopping block come the end of March, either being designated for assignment or traded to another organization.

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[Cris E]

These things usually go two ways: he inches back towards his usual form or it turns out to be an injury and he's on the 60 day. Let's revisit in a couple weeks.

[roger]

 I have no clue where Topa is headed this season.  But writing this after 1.2 innings in February?  Seriously?

[thelanges5]

Not sure what to make of Topas early results. But Altavilla looks like the twins closer!

[Nshore]

I think they'll give Topa plenty of rope.  They're in dire straits in the pen IMO.

[CRF]

I don't know about a DFA, but he certainly doesn't impress much since he's been here. If we've got better options, then by all means let him go. 

[Danchat]

He's a 35 year old reliever who has topped out as a middle innings reliever and has considerable durability problems... and I would think he'd be at the end of most teams' bullpens. They shouldn't give him a long leash.

[HerbieFan]

In two words?  No...chance

[bean5302]

0.0% chance. Spring training is about working on pitches and getting into game shape. Lots of players are working on new stuff or just getting a feel for stuff. It's an opportunity to keep throwing a pitch which isn't working for example. It's part of the reason Spring Training stats rarely mean anything.

[jorgenswest]

It shouldn’t be a surprise. He had his first good season at age 32. At 34 last year he had the same number of batted ball events. His exit velocity, max exit velocity, launch angle, ground ball percentage, barrels, and hard hit balls all went in the wrong direction. As a result his expected ERA went from 3.04 to 4.42. His swing and miss rate was down 1, separation between fast ball and change up was down 2 and K rate down 3.6%. Walk rate was slightly up. At 35 should we expect a return to age 32 or another step of decline? 

I would not base it on spring ERA. Even a single regular season ERA, FIP and xFIP come in too small samples for relievers. I would watch his velocity, the swings and misses he is getting and the quality of contact he is giving up. If that doesn’t look close to 2023 it is hard to see how he helps the team.

[Brandon]

If this continues, it could be an injury.  He could also be trying to add another pitch to his repertoire.  He could be working on different things and throwing to work on something instead of pitching for outs.  This is the time of year you work on stuff with no worries.  I would expect at some point soon he would hone in on focusing on outs.  So if this continues throughout spring it would be a maybe.  But I think he has earned a shot at being on the opening day roster and if the bad pitching continues could find himself in AAA.

[OregonTwinsFan]

I'm sure he will make the team despite the fact that he isn't very good.

[SteveLV]

Why would this be a surprise?  He isn't good and he is old.  He should not make the roster, but he will anyways.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

He's a 35 year old reliever who has topped out as a middle innings reliever and has considerable durability problems... and I would think he'd be at the end of most teams' bullpens. They shouldn't give him a long leash.

Right. I know why he's looked at as a lock in this bullpen... Familiar name after the fire sale. IMO he's no different than the waiver wire pickups we've made in recent weeks. If those guys look better, then he should be on his way out. His tenure in MN was missing in action until the bitter end of 2024 then acceptable middle inning guy in 2025. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Nshore said:

I think they'll give Topa plenty of rope.  They're in dire straits in the pen IMO.

Continued spring struggles might shorten the slack he is provided. Relief pitchers are volatile and an inch of break or mph of velo could be the difference between above average and unusable. With so little proven bullpen help, it doesn't make sense to make an early decision on a veteran like Topa, but he seems to have a small margin of error to be successful.

[nicksaviking]

Absolutely not. In no way should it be a surprise.

A 35-year-old reliever who's spent most of his career in the minors and had one good MLB season? Gabriel Gonzalez was always the only thing interesting about the Jorge Polanco trade. We can cut ties here and not worry about the optics.

[RaoulDuke]

Topa was walking a tight rope even when having success last year.  Still feels like a vet arm they will keep around at least to start to fill some innings but his spot is very claimable by a prospect that forces the issue.

[Old Twins Hat]

I don't ever remember Topa being considered a lock for this year's pen or even having had a good year last season.

I know it's hard to come up with topics to write about early in Spring Training, I get that.

But, I ain't losing sleep over this or even worried about the Twins bullpen until May.

There's a million ways for this season's Twins to fall apart, and Topa is not like the key to the Jenga collapse, so keep fishing for topics.

[Fatbat]

Based on his career, he seems to be in midseason form and one of our top 8 RP’s.  Thats not saying much other than, our bullpen needs help that even he can’t provide…. Per usual….

[DocBauer]

I'm not a fan of Topa. I'm a fan of the 2023 Topa for Seattle, but that's not what the Twins got in the trade that included him.

So far, with the Twins, he's an OK middle arm. And I don't put a lot of credence in ST for MOST arms because they are usually just stretching out and working on pitches. BUT Topa doesn't exactly have a long, productive resume. But EXPERIENCE is going to give him some rope.

ALMOST every year the Twins uncover a gem for the BP. Sometimes it's a 1yr guy, sometimes it's a Thielbar or Stewart. So Topa is no lock. While 6 weeks or so of ST doesn't mean EVERYTHING, it can mean something. 

And it's WAY too early to dismiss ANYONE at this point.  And experience matters to some degree.

I'd absolutely LOVE to see Raya and Klein Just throw so well that Topa is jettisoned. But do we really trust that after 2 weeks of ST? We don't at this point. 

And it's actually pretty silly to have an OP about him at this point.

 

[Pykkman]

“Earning a 3.90 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and a 49-to-18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings pitched, Topa performed well last season”

how many other current twins relievers have this stat line in the majors last year?   

[MattWallnerFan]

Yeah too early to speculate yet IMO

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Absolutely not. In no way should it be a surprise.

A 35-year-old reliever who's spent most of his career in the minors and had one good MLB season? Gabriel Gonzalez was always the only thing interesting about the Jorge Polanco trade. We can cut ties here and not worry about the optics.

DeScalfini was the reason for the trade by so many here. You know the fans here are never wrong. 

[old nurse]

The first day of spring is in June so bt then it is a very tral possibility Topa outdoor be DFA in the spring.  As the headline states.  Like the other relievers on Rosterman’s list of ex Twins in spring training, occasionally effective relievers come and go. 

[Whitey333]

The names in the bullpen, with or without Topa, don't instill much confidence.  Most of them are cartoons and hopefuls that were discarded by most of the other teams.  Topa is no better or worse than the rest of them IMO.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Topa 'should' be DFA'ed but I don't think he will be - at least not yet. 

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Right. I know why he's looked at as a lock in this bullpen... Familiar name after the fire sale. IMO he's no different than the waiver wire pickups we've made in recent weeks. If those guys look better, then he should be on his way out. His tenure in MN was missing in action until the bitter end of 2024 then acceptable middle inning guy in 2025. 

Was Liam Hendricks “missing in action” when he had elbow surgery or cancer? I get Topa isn’t Mariano Rivera but he had physical problems in ‘24 like essentially EVERY pitcher experiences (Lopez/Ryan/Festa/etc.).

The evaluation here is on top of what was a season of him meeting expectations in ‘25. Not great, but got what they paid for and met expectations. The fact that there’s a discussion of anyone’s performances through March 2nd other than human interest is silly. Sure, some are “encouraging” and some guys still seem to be inconsistent or underachieving. It’s Spring Training …….80% of it is left to take place.

If he’s still struggling March 20th, they may consider displacing him, but it’s doubtful, given the risk that any of his potential replacements would bring.

[Twins GFP]

These guys are also on the DFA train:
Jeffers is batting .071
Wallner is batting .083

While we are on the topic:
Roden and his 1.277 OPS should be the new cleanup hitter
Somebody named Garrett Pain has a 5.000 OPS, definitely HOF material.

[Chad93]

Maybe with a good bullpen 

[garn from vancouver]

i have always felt good when i see him coming in to pitch. i think he'll be given a lot more room to move and get back to where he needs to be.