How Low Could the Minnesota Twins' Payroll Go?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins enter this offseason facing a familiar but unsettling question: how low will ownership let payroll go? After consecutive disappointing seasons and amid shrinking local TV revenues, the front office is navigating a financial landscape far different from the one that fueled their 2023 postseason run. The organization has long operated with a mid-market mindset, but the tone this winter suggests a more dramatic pullback could be on the way.

Across baseball, payroll flexibility has become a buzzword, often serving as a polite way of saying “spend less.” For the Twins, that 'flexibility' could turn into a euphemism for rigidity and constraint. With ownership hinting at reductions and early projections showing significant cuts, fans are bracing for a quieter offseason. While Minnesota has never been a major spender, it’s rare for the franchise to face such visible belt-tightening following years of on-field progress and roster investment.

FanGraphs’s Jon Becker, who manages the site’s Roster Resource payroll pages, recently outlined just how far things could theoretically fall. His analysis underscores a point many around baseball have suspected: while the Twins aren’t headed for a complete teardown, ownership’s directive could push the payroll into uncomfortable territory.

The Current Payroll Picture
FanGraphs currently projects Minnesota’s payroll at roughly $95 million, a steep decline from last year’s $136 million. That total already represents a significant step back for a team that, just a year ago, looked like a division favorite. Even so, Becker noted, “In theory, you can get through a season with a payroll of, say, $30–40 million if you were committed to cheapness, though of course they’re not going to actually go that low.” 

Minnesota’s only guaranteed contracts are tied to Pablo López ($21.5 million) and Byron Buxton ($15 million). MLB Trade Rumors has also posted the team’s projected arbitration salaries, which are obviously tied to the team’s bottom line. Ryan Jeffers ($6.6 million), Joe Ryan ($5.8 million), Trevor Larnach ($4.7 million), Bailey Ober ($4.6 million), and Royce Lewis ($3 million) are the highest projected arbitration salaries. Out of this group, Larnach is the lone player who is a non-tender candidate. 

Non-Tender and Option Decisions
If Minnesota truly wanted to operate on a bare-bones budget, additional trimming would be possible. The current projection doesn’t include decisions on players like Justin Topa, who could have his option picked up or go through arbitration, but it paints a clear picture of contraction. The Twins need bullpen arms, so it seems likely for Topa to be on the team in some capacity. 

Becker also mentioned that non-tendering likely candidates like Michael Tonkin, Génesis Cabrera, and Anthony Misiewicz would be part of the equation. Those decisions alone could save an estimated $4.5 million and open spots for younger, league-minimum players. The Twins have shown a willingness in recent years to churn through low-cost relievers, so cutting loose fringe bullpen pieces would fit their recent operational pattern.

Moving Core Players
Even with those non-tenders, Becker suggested that Minnesota could push the payroll even lower.

“They very well could get under $110 million even if Buxton insists on staying, by moving López, Jeffers, and Ryan,” he said. Trading any of those players would dramatically reshape the roster and send a clear message that a reset is underway. López remains under team control for two seasons, and Ryan and Jeffers are both controllable contributors who would bring back strong returns. Those types of moves would prioritize long-term flexibility and prospect depth over immediate competitiveness.

Reviewing the Deadline Deals
Becker also pointed out why a total teardown might not make much sense.

“I’m not sure I expect that much of a blow-up, since they got a lot of MLB-ready guys in the trades (at the deadline),” he wrote. At the 2025 deadline, Minnesota focused on acquiring players who could contribute soon, not just prospects for the distant future. 

Many of the players the Twins acquired were at Double A or higher, including Hendry Mendez, Mick Abel, Ryan Gallagher, Sam Armstrong, Taj Bradley, James Outman, Kendry Rojas and Alan Roden. That approach signaled the organization’s intent to remain somewhat competitive while managing financial realities. It could allow them to trim payroll while maintaining a respectable big-league roster filled with younger, cost-controlled talent.

As the winter unfolds, the Twins front office faces a delicate balance between budgetary restraint and fielding a credible team. The direction ownership takes will reveal whether this is a one-year reset, or the start of a longer austerity era in Minnesota baseball.

---

What is your estimate for next year’s payroll? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

View full article

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I know what I would do.  I think I know what they SHOULD do.  However, I have lost all faith in trying to know what the Pohlads WILL do.  

In theory, they could mostly keep the players that they should and add some free agents, maybe make a baseball trade, and still come in with a payroll of $120M — not enough, but not a full-gut of the payroll.  That team might even be competitive.  It is also not lost on me that there are (supposedly) new minority owners.  They have invested REAL money in the team, and they’re not going to want to see the on the field product completely tank and along with it, their (probably local) reputation, attendance and equity growth.  That’s actually the one thing that gives me a little bit of hope — not enough to hold my breath, but at least enough for an optimistic pause.  

[rdehring]

Another day, another article talking about what the Twins payroll is going to be.  I have a suggestion, Cody.  Why don't we wait and see what it actually is?

As for me, I am more concerned with what they do with whatever payroll they spend, rather than how much they spend.  And if it is a total teardown, I will enjoy watching all those young kids we have followed the past few years playing at Target Field.  With a bit of luck and some smart decisions, maybe they will become something real good in a couple years.  And yes, I will agree with most of you reading that last sentence that smart decisions aren't a given.

[mikelink45]

Who knows - Pohlads and payroll is getting old and boring.  We have no influence, they have no clue.  I am more interested in how many season tickets they are going to be able to sell!  They should try to get the Dodgers, Yankees, Brewers and Cubs to play all the home games - that is the only way they can increase or maintain attendance.  

[Sjoski]

How Low Will They Go?

Who knows?

But when the stadium lights start to flicker at Target Field, we know it’s just ownership dimming the bulbs to save on payroll.

[tony&rodney]

There are bound to be a spectrum of suggestions and guesses about the 2026 player roster and payroll. One thing that is almost certain or what I believe is that none of us will successfully name the final product. Who feels like they have an idea of what Falvey plans? I have no idea what the POBO values.

My best guess for payroll ranges from $100-110M. I won't be surprised by a number higher, stretching as high as $120M. I also will not be surprised by a lower number, diving as low as $70M. My guess includes one free agent at $25M and another at around $5M. The final roster composition is much more important than the dollars. We won't be reaching the spending levels of Seattle much less Toronto. We will be looking towards Cleveland and Milwaukee territories or lower.

[Nshore]

How low?  As low as the German U boat in Das Boot.  Each game, a fan will be picked at random out of the stands to play first base.

[rv78]

20 minutes ago, Nshore said:

How low?  As low as the German U boat in Das Boot.  Each game, a fan will be picked at random out of the stands to play first base.

And the sad part is.... that fan will be just as good as the guy that Falvey goes dumpster diving after.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I know what I would do.  I think I know what they SHOULD do.  However, I have lost all faith in trying to know what the Pohlads WILL do.  

In theory, they could mostly keep the players that they should and add some free agents, maybe make a baseball trade, and still come in with a payroll of $120M — not enough, but not a full-gut of the payroll.  That team might even be competitive.  It is also not lost on me that there are (supposedly) new minority owners.  They have invested REAL money in the team, and they’re not going to want to see the on the field product completely tank and along with it, their (probably local) reputation, attendance and equity growth.  That’s actually the one thing that gives me a little bit of hope — not enough to hold my breath, but at least enough for an optimistic pause.  

It's all a mystery until we actually know who these limited partners are and what they want, but I'm not ready to assume that their first priority is winning, or that it's even a priority at all.  In fact, if their priority is return on investment, then the quickest way to achieve that is to significantly reduce costs, especially since a sizable chunk of their revenue (national media deals) is fixed.  As the Pirates, have shown us, you don't have to even try to win to be profitable in MLB. 

Furthermore, the Pohlads still control over half the board, so they only have as much of a say in operations as the Pohlads allow them to have.  Besides, Joe's line about these groups "aligning with Pohlad family values" has me even more skeptical that winning is their first priority.  And even if winning was their top priority, what are they going to do about it, ask for their money back?  Not when the potential for rapid franchise valuation growth exists if the new CBA and subsequent media contracts settle in a manner that's beneficial to small/mid market teams. 

Again, it's all speculation at this point, but from what I see, I see more reasons to be pessimistic (I prefer realistic) than optimistic about the team's plans for 2026 stemming from this arrangement.

If I'm trying to find a reason to be optimistic, I would look at the potential of ESPN acquiring MLB.tv rights and the Twins' local broadcast rights along with it.  Manfred REALLY wants as many teams under that umbrella as possible to make his media vision work, so I could see them making the arrangement pretty lucrative for the teams who've granted them their local rights to entice other teams to join the fold.  That theory has about as many unknowns as the limited parter situation, but I think there's a plausible scenario where it works in the Twins' favor - assuming they don't just pocket the additional revenue that could come from it.

[Craig Arko]

With contraction, the payroll for players would go to zero, plus, I suppose what is guaranteed for Buxton, Lopez, and Correa. Unless another team picks up those contracts. So that’s about rock bottom.

[BH67]

I repeat: the asset that the patriarch tried to cash in 23 years ago is now the crown jewel of the Pohlad Companies' solvency. That asset will maintain its monetary value no matter how much of its interior is gutted.

So why bother with scenarios?

[Mike Sixel]

I'm amazed at how many people uninterested in the topic read the topic? Why do that?

[TNtwins85]

I did all the math. Pondered the equations and after long thought I came up with this genius answer. The Pohlads and MLB could agree to contract the team. In which case it would be $0. There, I answered every “the sky is falling” Twins fans question. What’s the prize?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

It's all a mystery until we actually know who these limited partners are and what they want, but I'm not ready to assume that their first priority is winning, or that it's even a priority at all.  In fact, if their priority is return on investment, then the quickest way to achieve that is to significantly reduce costs, especially since a sizable chunk of their revenue (national media deals) is fixed.  As the Pirates, have shown us, you don't have to even try to win to be profitable in MLB. 

Furthermore, the Pohlads still control over half the board, so they only have as much of a say in operations as the Pohlads allow them to have.  Besides, Joe's line about these groups "aligning with Pohlad family values" has me even more skeptical that winning is their first priority.  And even if winning was their top priority, what are they going to do about it, ask for their money back?  Not when the potential for rapid franchise valuation growth exists if the new CBA and subsequent media contracts settle in a manner that's beneficial to small/mid market teams. 

 

The Pohlads indeed have a “decision making majority”, however, the investors have invested REAL money, not just my meager life savings.  While that doesn’t constitute controlling interest, they surely will have a very loud voice in the room where decisions are made.  The only way that wouldn’t be true is if it were just an investor that had spare money laying around that they didn’t care about.  It’s unlikely, but theoretically possible.  

[TNtwins85]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm amazed at how many people uninterested in the topic read the topic? Why do that?

Honestly, I skimmed it. As I’ve seen this horse beaten to death for so long it’s engraved in my mind at this point. Twins payroll, Pohlads, Falvey, 40% of the roster, Baldelli, salary cap, salary floor, Pohlads, Falvey, stupid, cheap, 40% of the roster, Pablo, Ryan, Buxton, Jeffers, trade, Falvey Pohlads, salary cap, salary floor……

[laloesch]

If I remember correctly, Falvey and the Pohlads hinted that more cuts were possibly coming.  I would not be surprised in the least if they deal Pablo Lopez.

[CRF]

Low, low.......Looooooooooooooow.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

In theory, they could mostly keep the players that they should and add some free agents, maybe make a baseball trade, and still come in with a payroll of $120M — not enough, but not a full-gut of the payroll.  That team might even be competitive.  

I also agree that they can be competitive with a $120M payroll. They have a lot of cheap talent to choose from before they have to fill holes on the roster. The emphasis should be on developing that cheap talent so they shouldn't block rookies with veterans just to raise the floor. They should be able to fill those holes still remaining (1B, C2, UT/SS, RP) for $30M. Backup C, UT and two relievers shouldn't cost more than $12-15M which leaves them $15-18M to spend on a first baseman if they choose. I doubt they will, so I hope Jeffers gets a 3 year, $36M contract.

If they acquire more talent in a starting pitcher trade, they may be able to fill more of those holes with rookies. They could potentially have $40M available to spend on free agents and only one or two places to spend that money. That's a great opportunity to offer long-term contracts to your current players.

[The Great Hambino]

13 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The Pohlads indeed have a “decision making majority”, however, the investors have invested REAL money, not just my meager life savings.  While that doesn’t constitute controlling interest, they surely will have a very loud voice in the room where decisions are made.  The only way that wouldn’t be true is if it were just an investor that had spare money laying around that they didn’t care about.  It’s unlikely, but theoretically possible.  

They also signed up for an arrangement where the Pohlads retain full say and are under no obligation to put any weight on limited partner opinion.  Their voice in the room is only as loud as the Pohlads choose to allow it to be.  I really don't think they invest their REAL money, as you put it, without understanding that.  Which makes me think they're more likely than not on board with the Pohlads' vision.

Such an arrangement is also the only way they were going to get any sort of ownership of a major sports franchise.  They're limited partners instead of full owners because that's what they can afford.  The amount of money they put together wouldn't even be able to purchase an MLS team.  They're not in a position to be able to dictate operations, and they knew that going in.  If they weren't okay with that, then there's plenty of other business opportunities at that price point where they'd have more of a say

I'm expecting the worst and hoping for the best.  And by best, I mean the Pohlads putting the team back on the market post-CBA

[Chad Freyer]

3 hours ago, Nshore said:

How low?  As low as the German U boat in Das Boot.  Each game, a fan will be picked at random out of the stands to play first base.

Your idea would improve attendance.

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm amazed at how many people uninterested in the topic read the topic? Why do that?

I'm here for the comments. Skimmed the article to get to your reaction. Mostly looking for who our new manager is, and will always default to the latest article to skim to get to the comments 👍 

[terrydactyls]

How low could the payroll get?  That would be 40 players times league minimum.  That's the lowest salary can get (without contraction, of course).

[High heat]

To answer the question I can realistically see 80M

 

Trading both Pablo and Ryan as well as Jeffers and non Tendering Larnach.  
 

You still have to spend to bring in a 1B and if trading Jeffers 2 catchers and at least 3 Bullpen pieces (as well as keeping Topa) 

[Vanimal46]

Rumor has it they just laid off a bunch of employees on the business side of the organization. If anyone expects payroll to be near $120 million you’re incredibly naive. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I also agree that they can be competitive with a $120M payroll. They have a lot of cheap talent to choose from before they have to fill holes on the roster. The emphasis should be on developing that cheap talent so they shouldn't block rookies with veterans just to raise the floor. They should be able to fill those holes still remaining (1B, C2, UT/SS, RP) for $30M. Backup C, UT and two relievers shouldn't cost more than $12-15M which leaves them $15-18M to spend on a first baseman if they choose. I doubt they will, so I hope Jeffers gets a 3 year, $36M contract.

If they acquire more talent in a starting pitcher trade, they may be able to fill more of those holes with rookies. They could potentially have $40M available to spend on free agents and only one or two places to spend that money. That's a great opportunity to offer long-term contracts to your current players.

 

I don't have much faith in Derek Falvey's budget priority decision making.

[thelanges5]

You left out one of the Twins guaranteed contracts. The ghost of Correa is getting $10mil - third highest on the team as of now. 

[Vanimal46]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

so I hope Jeffers gets a 3 year, $36M contract.

You're at least $20 million short on that contract. You really think he's worth $2 million more per year than Christian Vazquez when he signed with the Twins at age 32 in 2023? Catchers that can hit at all are rarities in the game. 

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

You're at least $20 million short on that contract. You really think he's worth $2 million more per year than Christian Vazquez when he signed with the Twins at age 32 in 2023? Catchers that can hit at all are rarities in the game. 

Jeffers is going to get about $6M in arbitration in 2026. Two additional years at $15M per season would make him one of the top 5 paid catchers in baseball. That’s 50% more than they paid Vazquez.

[tony&rodney]

If Jeffers is not traded, which I am not predicting, 2026 will be his last year with the Twins.

In addition to $10M the Twins also pay Correa's $1.33M signing bonus each of the next 3 years according to Fangraphs and numerous other sites. It is a small number but one to account for when adding numbers to remain as low as possible.