Flawed Core, Flawed Plan: The Twins Putting New Manager in No-Win Situation

[Battle ur tail off]

What needs to change is our player development process. Who has been in charge of developing Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Julien, Wallner, Martin, etc? 

NONE of them have hit as a sure-fire viable starting caliber or better MLB player. This is unacceptable. Either they weren't good enough to draft or trade for, or they haven't been developed like they should have been. 

To have your top 10-ish prospects of the last 5-6 years not show anyone that's anything is what killed this franchise. 

Until the team takes bat to ball contact seriously and fundamentals, the results will continue to be the same. And yes, the next Manager, if he is basically another yes man/IPAD watcher is in a no win situation. No manager can actually manage with everything laid out in front of him/micromanaged every single game.

 

[Pat]

Selling "Hope" has always been the mantra of Twins management.  Signing retreads and "hoping" to get one more good year out of them.  Rarely worked.  Hope is not a plan it is an illusion that might happen or not. No way to run an organization.  

[Woof Bronzer]

I mean, yes it's not an ideal situation for the new guy, but there are 30 MLB jobs on the planet and it pays extremely well.  Tough job; many many people will be willing and hungry to take it on.

The other thing worth noting is that the Twins have historically extended an enormous leash to their managers (the Molitor thing was weird with the new GM.)  He'll be almost guaranteed 5+ years so that security might offset concerns about 2026.  

[RpR]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Are they mostly playing better?

• Jax: looks a bit luckier, not any better.
• Duran: not all that different, still awesome. 
• Bader: a little luckier at the plate, maybe a bit less in the field, but pretty close as a player
• Varland: substantially worse so far, but in a fairly small sample
• Stewart: was not good, immediately injured
• Correa: hitting better, defense better away from SS (position change might be most impactful)
• France: looks like the same backup quality player he's been all season
• Paddack: worse for sure, partly because the Twins beat him up
• Coulombe: quite bad for Texas, but also a small sample
• Dobnak: still in the minors, but pitching better than he did in Saint Paul

My scorecard would put that at: 2 better (Correa and Dobnak), 4 about the same (Jax, Duran, Bader, France), and 4 worse (Varland, Stewart, Paddack, Coulombe). Even if you could convince me that Jax, Duran, & Bader are "better" now that they've been dealt...that's still only half.

LUCK - a word used by those who deny reality.

[DJL44]

Quote

• Brooks Lee owns the shortstop job, but must prove he can hit field enough to keep it.

It's his glove, not his bat that is the major problem. Only Bo Bichette consistently had fielding numbers worse than Lee.

 

[jmlease1]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

LUCK - a word used by those who deny reality.

When someone's FIP goes up but their ERA goes down, while their WHIP stays about the same, their K/9 goes down, etc...did they get better or did they get a little luckier (or play in front of better defense)?

If a player's BABIP jumps by 90 pts to a career high by 60 pts and far far above the league average...did they get better or get a little luckier?

Especially over smaller sample sizes. No one is saying that Jax or Bader aren't good players, but Jax was always due some regression to his mean and Bader is getting some breaks with his bat. (he's got a .415 batting average on balls in play in Philly. His career BABIP is .305. It's the same thing with Keaschall, where we all knew he wasn't going to find every hole on the field forever. doesn't mean Keaschall is a bad player either. Just not likely to hit .380)

[Eris]

Yes, of course the new manager will be in a difficult position. The reality is the was a poor team filled with DH types. While there is some hope the Lewis, Wallner, and Martin may up their game next year, this team played much of the year in need of upgrades at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, backup C and possibly SS. It could have been much worse as Bader and Castro played well before they were traded. Other than hope (and Keaschall), there should not be much expectation that this improves for next year. 

[weitz41]

Thanks Cody again for a well written article. But I'm going to disagree on the general tone of it.

I don't buy into the "we're going to lose 100+ game next year" narrative.

1st of all the guys they traded: Only Bader and Johan have looked just as good or better than when they were Twins. The rest...Well seems like the FO came out ahead on them. Again, I get the WTF about it though.

I hope, of course and I may be wrong, Lee, Lewis and Wallner had a down year. Buxton was WAY past due for the season he had. Buck regresses., ok sure, but what are we talking about though? 30 HR and 20 SB with 110 games played, or 50 games and always injured. Lee didn't get to AAA and tear the cover off the ball. Lewis played in 106 games this season. That's close to 1/2 his total games played in MLB. Wallner was still 10% (OPS of 110) better the league average and had a pretty bad year.

I want to believe the next manager will think just a little here and a little there and we're a playoff hopeful.

Play league average defense, use the base stealing advantages, keep Joe and Pablo and I think that's a real possibility. Despite all the negative Nancy's on this site.

[Teflon]

I wouldn't call it a no-win situation - more like a 57-win situation.

[Original_JB]

I was reading an article where they ranked the 8 (yes, 8!) open managerial positions, and they placed the Twins 3rd;  Braves 1st, Angels 8th. I think the author is a bit delusional, but if he's right, there are worse places to end up.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ranking-mlbs-eight-managerial-openings-braves-orioles-offer-upside-rockies-avoid-being-last-on-list/

[P Meyer]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Based on these responses, expectations are going to be so low, Rockies and White Sox kind of low, that it actually won't be terribly difficult for a new manager to exceed them.

I agree that people will be very down on the franchise next year. The disappointment will come when the young players struggle (like young players do) and the trade deadline sends away what remaining talent the Twins have. Right or wrong, the manager is going to take some of this and if Falvey gets fired, the new GM may want their own manager.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It's his glove, not his bat that is the major problem. Only Bo Bichette consistently had fielding numbers worse than Lee.

 

Yep, we really need Culpepper to step up and take over that position.  Lee is well suited for a utility role.  

[Maybe Next Year]

6 hours ago, Nshore said:

The Pohlads get a lot of criticism, but IMO most of this mess resides with Falvey.  You can field a team of motivated, fundamentally sound players regardless of the budget.  I went to too many games this year where the team looked like they were sedated. 

Now it's Falvey on the hot seat because there's nobody left to blame.  Whoever he hires better be good or he'll most likely be gone.

Last year 3 of the 6 AL teams that made the playoffs had a LOWER payroll than the Twins. It’s not about payroll. It’s all about player development and solid coaching. Something Rocco never brought to the table with his BS analytics. Don’t agree- tell me when the last time the NY Yankees won a World Series with their $240 million payroll. I truly believe we have more talent on this team than people realize. With the proper coaching staff stressing fundamentals on defense as well as at the plate I believe we could be very competitive. For all you naysayers - when was the last time our hitters were taught to take an outside pitch to the opposite field instead of pulling the ball! 

[JDHack23]

Looking back this year, I can recall plenty of past articles and responses on how the core was flawed, how things need to change, blaming everyone and everything including Rocco, Ownership GM, etc....  Now that Rocco was fired, we're writing articles about how the new manager isn't going to have a fair shake?  That is irony at it's best.  I'm not a fan of Rocco, I say good riddance but this is the Central a capable GM and Manager could have this team contending in three years without a substantial increase in spending with the caveat that salary isn't cut substantially beyond one year.

Plenty of building blocks and salary flexibility to put a good team together rather quickly.  Will it happen next year, no way, but have a little faith that one of two things will happen.  A bounce back to contention by year 3 or a new GM because it didn't happen.

[RpR]

10 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Yep, we really need Culpepper to step up and take over that position.  Lee is well suited for a utility role.  

Yep, we really need  - (place name of favorite wonder boy) -  to step up and take over that position.  Lee is well suited for a utility role. 

Same statement made over and over, till the wonder boy sucks and he becomes the next whipping post victim.

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Our core is so badly fractured & flawed plan (that wasn't spoken of). This is not a player problem although the roster was gutted; the return did practically nothing to help the team NOW. Cody you seem more optimistic about this fractured core than I. What is the plan? Just wing it? The plan has been flawed. Hit a bunch of solo HRs when we don't need them & SO when we do. Forget about fundamentals like defense, baserunning & bunting. I give Baldelli credit for trying to get away from this flawed plan. You can get the best manager there is, nothing will change. But because these problems are FO-based, nothing will change until you change who is in charge. 

It is obvious that the biggest problem is the FO. Yes ownership is a problem as well, they are the ones that allow this FO not to be accountable and be fired. But the plan hasn't worked. The longer that reality is ignored the longer it takes to actually put a plan in place that could work is delayed. This FO and and head of it can't be trusted to implement a workable plan. A new manager offers me no hope without a change in management in the Front Office.

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It's his glove, not his bat that is the major problem. Only Bo Bichette consistently had fielding numbers worse than Lee.

 

Weren't the majority of his gaffes while playing 2nd?

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Original_JB said:

I was reading an article where they ranked the 8 (yes, 8!) open managerial positions, and they placed the Twins 3rd;  Braves 1st, Angels 8th. I think the author is a bit delusional, but if he's right, there are worse places to end up.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ranking-mlbs-eight-managerial-openings-braves-orioles-offer-upside-rockies-avoid-being-last-on-list/

A pretty good shot at a high draft pick this off-season too. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Yep, we really need  - (place name of favorite wonder boy) -  to step up and take over that position.  Lee is well suited for a utility role. 

Same statement made over and over, till the wonder boy sucks and he becomes the next whipping post victim.

I said many times before Lee made it to the majors that he did nothing in the minors to suggest he would be above average at this level.  He is a poor defender and simply does not possess the athleticism to be even an average defender at SS.  He is also a below average hitter,  That's exactly the type of player that needs to be upgraded if the team wants to contend.  He is barely above replacement level.  

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Getting a job as an MLB Manager is a dream.

Even with what you inherit as a core to build on is irrelevent?

Even with an Ownership that cuts Payroll is irrelevent?

YOU are an MLB Manager...succeed and you are a Hero?

Torii 💪

[William K Johnson]

As an Indiana University graduate, I was told for years that our football program would never succeed in the tough Big Ten conference, that we were a basketball school and a minor bowl game was our best hope each season.  We hire this unknown coach from a small school (James Madison) who told us all that "google me, I win".   He goes 11-2 his first year, makes the Division 1 playoffs, only losing to the two teams in the national championship game.   This year they are 5-0 ranked fifth in the country.   It can be done if you hire the right people.

[the_brute_squad]

There are a lot of "what ifs" that need to go the right way for this team to win. What the front office does as far as hiring a manager and signing the right free agent or two will make a big difference. 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

It seems like there are some similarities to the offseasons following 2016 and 2018.

Or the off-seasons following 1986 and 1990. Call me foolish, but I'm still a believer that we CAN turn it around and compete next season. 

[Bodie]

When the first name on your "core" list has a career percentage of games played of <53% you are kinda FUBARed...

"Flawed" isn't the "F" in FUBAR...

[twinssporto]

I’ve been saying this for years now: the Twins’ problems haven’t just been on the field—they’ve been rooted in strategy and culture inside the front office and in the way Rocco Baldelli managed the team.

Take Royce Lewis, for example. When he first came up, he was electric. He thrived under pressure, embraced the big moments, and looked every bit the gamer this franchise had been waiting for. Then the injuries hit, but even when he returned, something was different. That fearless spark seemed dimmed.

Why? My gut tells me it wasn’t just the injuries. Watching him this year, it felt like he was wrestling with more than his health. Either he wasn’t buying into the team’s philosophy, or the coaches tinkered with him so much that they muted his instincts. That’s the kind of second-guessing that can get inside a player’s head—and it looked like it did.

And I don’t think Lewis was alone. You could sense frustration across the roster, whether with the coaching staff, the front office, or both.

That’s the real shame here. This team had a solid core not long ago—a foundation that should’ve been built on. Instead, somewhere along the line, it began to erode. What we’ve seen recently feels less like bad luck and more like rot from within.

[big dog]

13 hours ago, Original_JB said:

I was reading an article where they ranked the 8 (yes, 8!) open managerial positions, and they placed the Twins 3rd;  Braves 1st, Angels 8th. I think the author is a bit delusional, but if he's right, there are worse places to end up.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ranking-mlbs-eight-managerial-openings-braves-orioles-offer-upside-rockies-avoid-being-last-on-list/

That's a key reality- good teams seldom fire the manager. It happens, but not too often. Most open jobs face this problem.

Some posters occasionally say that payroll doesn't matter because some teams with low payrolls always make the playoffs. I think it's a lot more realistic to say that "payroll alone" doesn't matter. Spending more money shouldn't be ignored as one of several steps toward improving the team.

[Jeff K]

20 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm definitely of the opinion that if the roster for 2026 has Outman as the 4th OF and Clemens as the starting 1B, there will not be a quick turnaround.

Because if that's something they consider acceptable, then I have little faith their player evaluation and development will rebuild the bullpen quickly, promote the right rookies, develop keaschall properly, land an acceptable backup catcher, get Royce back on track as a hitter, develop Brooks Lee into an impactful player, and get enough polish on guys like Bradley, Abel, Matthews, Festa, Raya, Preilipp to have a quality rotation.

Goodness there's a lot of things that need doing. It's far from impossible that these things could occur, but the more questions and variables you have and fewer resources you can access the less likely you are to have success.

Your point about Clemens and especially Outman is how I see it too.  Outman is not a major league player and Clemens is on the margins.  I'd rather upgrade or go with our rising minor leaguers.

[Jeff K]

19 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Outman is not a MLB outfielder.  Even for the Twins.

Not even sure he is AAA

[AKTwinsFan]

Outman, Lewis and Walley need to get some extra swing coaching this off-season. I assume since we traded for so many lefty outfielder bats we plan on losing at least Larnach. I believe Gabby Gonzalez is rule 5 draft eligible so we need to add him to the 40 man to keep him. 

[Sjoski]

Q: What does being the manager of the Minnesota Twins and the President of the United States have in common?

 

A: The best candidates don’t even want the job.