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Posted
Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

 

Box Score
SP: Bailey Ober 5.0 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (96 pitches, 65 strikes (68%))
Home Runs: Luke Keaschall (3), Mickey Gasper (1), Matt Wallner (20)
Top 3 WPA: Gasper (.416), Wallner (.310), Austin Martin (.218)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs
 image.png.488cce032acd7d1e06678c603ae9ad9b.png

With the Twins plummeting down the standings and toward a top-five draft pick, Bailey Ober looked to keep some semblance of respectability in Twins Territory Tuesday night. Toronto countered with the moderately successful righty Chris Bassitt, in hopes of keeping their surprising place among division leaders in the American League. Would tonight be the night that the Twins captured their first international win of the season? Or would Louis Varland and Ty France's new mates prove to be too much for the free-falling Twinkies to handle?

Twins Threaten, but Blue Jays Score
The night started off promisingly for the visiting Twins, as Trevor Larnach led off the game with a walk and Brooks Lee immediately advanced him to third with a single. With runners on the corners and nobody out, however, the Twins of 2025 reared their ugly heads yet again. Three straight strikeouts of Luke Keaschall, Matt Wallner, and Edouard Julien left the ducks on the pond and got Bassitt and the Jays out of a huge early jam.

Ober's night started off the same way, and then got worse. He gave up a single to George Springer to start the bottom of the first, and then Nathan Lukes doubled, putting runners at second and third with nobody out. A Valdimir Guerrero Jr. sac fly made it 1-0, Bo Bichette singled Lukes over to third, and with two outs, Alejandro Kirk singled in the second Blue Jays run. Where the Twins failed, the Jays succeeded. After Bassitt took care of the Twins in order in the top of the second, the Jays struck again in the form of a Springer home run to make it 3-0, and it looked like another rout was on.

Sloppy and Broken Play, but Twins Sneak Back Anyway
The middle innings left much to be desired for baseball fans, as sloppy play, injury delays, and missed opportunities for the Twins and even the Jays defined the action. In the bottom of the fifth, Springer once again abused an Ober middle-middle fastball for his second homer of the game to stake Toronto to a 4-0 lead.

The Twins responded in a big way in the top of the sixth, thanks to their young middle infielders. Lee singled again to start the inning, and this time, Keaschall didn't miss a Bassitt sinker that didn't sink. He slashed a 400-foot bomb to cut the lead in half at 4-2.

Louis Varland came in to finish off Royce Lewis to end the top of the sixth inning, and he took the ball to start the top of the seventh against Mickey Gasper and Austin Martin. Gasper singled, Martin walked, and Varland got the hook. Brendon Little came in, and Ryan Jeffers immediately singled to load the bases with nobody out. What happened next resulted in a run, but it also was a baserunning disaster that Martin keeps finding himself involved in. Lee ripped a ball to right-center, which Addison Barger dove to catch. Martin had been off to the races on contact and never got close to making it back to second base. The Twins went from bases loaded and nobody out to two down and a runner on first, just like that. It was 4-3 Blue Jays, but oh, what might have been.

Twins Bullpen Holds, but Baserunning Still Folds
Ober ended up handing the ball to the bullpen after five innings of 10-hit and four-run baseball. Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk held their ground in the sixth and seventh, but the Twins kept blundering away scoring opportunities. In the top of the eighth inning, Wallner took one for the team and then advanced to second on a passed ball. Julien then walked, and once again the Twins had runners on with nobody out. James Outman was the next man up, and he whiffed on a bunt attempt. How bad was it? Wallner got caught off and thrown out on the way to third base. Outman then struck out, as did Lewis, and the maddening offensive woes of 2025 kept marching on.

And Then Baseball Happened
What happened next is why we keep watching Twins baseball. Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman got the call for the top of the ninth, and the man at the plate was the much-maligned Gasper. Another sinker didn't sink, and suddenly, the game was all tied up! First career home run? Check.

Next man up was (the also much-maligned) Martin, and he laced a single and then stole second base to put the go-ahead run at second base with nobody out. Jeffers couldn't advance Martin, as he hit a grounder to third. Luckily, Martin stayed put this time. Lee got hit by a pitch to set up Keaschall for another heroic moment. No moment to be found for the Natural, as he flew out. Wallner stood at the plate, then, with two outs and a game's worth of missed chances having transpired. Hoffman pounded the zone with a first-pitch fastball, and by the time Wallner's three-run homer landed, the Twins dugout and all fans who stuck with the game through all of the tears and angst were jumping for joy!

Justin Topa suddenly became the Twins' "closer" for the evening, and he struck out his old friend France to start the bottom of the ninth. After an Andrés Giménez groundout, Topa faced the hot-hitting Springer—and Springer stayed hot, with a single to start the "uh-oh" train. Next up was Daulton Varsho, who laced a double into right to make it 7-5 Twins and to bring the tying run to the plate in Guerrero. The unnecessary stress was ratcheted up, but Topa was up to the task. Guerrero tried to go deep, but the ball fell harmlessly in Wallner's glove for the final out!

What’s Next?
The Twins look to build upon this unexpected success with a rare road series victory on Wednesday evening in Toronto. While Zebby Matthews is in line for the start, the Twins have yet to announce their starter. The Blue Jays are sending out nasty LHP Eric Lauer (8-2, 2.76 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 6:07 pm CDT.

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

  FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT
Topa 32 0 0 0 26 58
Hatch 0 54 0 0 0 54
Ohl 0 0 46 0 0 46
Cabrera 17 0 0 22 0 39
Kriske 0 0 0 37 0 37
Sands 14 0 0 0 23 37
Funderburk 21 0 0 0 15 36
Tonkin 0 0 0 0 9 9
 

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Wallner 20 HRs 35 RBI is just a funny stat line. 

Mickey Gasper sent a message to Big Dumper tonight. Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear 

Yes, the low homer to RBI stat has always been a marvel to me. The stars really have to align to have a sub 1 homer/2rbi ratio with 20 homers. If the season ended today I think he'd set a record.. He's "ahead" of the likes of Kevin Maas and Chris Hoiles. You need a disproportionate number of your hits to be homers with no tablesetters in front of you. Sprinkle in a low risp. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10785.html

Posted

What other game can offer the unexpected (unimaginable?) more so than baseball. Gotta love it! Mickey Mantle Gasper, who had been destroyed by MLB pitching all season (destroyed) becomes a hitting savant on 8/26/25! It may never happen again, time will tell, but those of us who have kept watching this team clop through the muck and mire of a dismal season were rewarded with the improbable Gasper bomb for the tie and the less surprising shot by Wallner that led to the win.

...just a lot of fun tonight!  

Posted

I added GB (Games Behind).  Does that help?

P Team
 
W
L PCT GB Eligible
1 Colorado Rockies 38 94 0.288   ---- N0
2 Chicago White Sox 48 84 0.364 10.0  
3 Washington Nationals 53 79 0.402 15.0 N0
4 Pittsburgh Pirates 58 75 0.436 19.5  
5 Atlanta Braves 60 72 0.455 22.0  
6 Minnesota Twins 60 72 0.455 22.0  
8 Baltimore Orioles 60 72 0.455 22.0  
7 Whatever Athletics 62 72 0.463 23.0  
9 Miami Marlins 62 70 0.470 24.0  
10 Los Angeles Angels 62 70 0.470 24.0  
11 Arizona Diamondbacks 64 69 0.481 25.5  
13 San Francisco Giants 64 68 0.485 26.0  
12 Tampa Bay Rays 64 68 0.485 26.0  
14 St. Louis Cardinals 65 68 0.489 26.5  
15 Texas Rangers 67 67 0.500 28.0  
Posted
7 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Good game. Only Ober really disappointed. Does he need to be shut down for a while?  

Yep, another strangely awful performance from our starting pitcher. When was the last time we had a quality start? Maybe it's time to just have all bullpen games. Oh, wait a minute, I almost forgot ... our bullpen is not our bullpen any longer. 

Posted

Huge much needed win!!! Great story in Gasper!!! Player of the game!!! Fish series/season strong!!! I’ll watch every game this season and beyond!!! Schedule release and With top prospects coming up 2026 will be fun exciting competitive year!!! Can’t wait!!!

Posted

Nice comeback win for the Twins - showing a little fight after getting behind early yet again!  Gaspar is unleashed now - career game I am sure he will always remember and Wallner a big swing with runners on base.    These 2 overcame some other clown baseball.  

Posted

I'll give Ober credit for battling and limiting the damage, but he did not look good. Fastball velocity was down again (season low) and the Jays were dialed in on him. Springer especially had his number. Have to wonder if Pablo were back if Ober wouldn't be getting shut down again. 

The baserunning is a mess. Martin keeps making big mistakes and it doesn't seem like Tommy Watkins helps anyone out there. I'm not really sure what Keaschall is doing out there at times, taking a nice lead and then dancing out further when the pitcher throws but not actually running? He's distracting his own hitter more than anything with some of that.

Give a little credit to the offense, who kept grinding and did a good job of getting runners on base, and some big flies brought 'em home. Nice to see Wallner hit a bomb with runners on, but I'm sure many people still want him sent packing. An actual Gasper sighting! Still think he's more of a Quad-A player, but you never know. I'm fine with giving him regular time the rest of the season and figuring it our for sure. He did well against the Jays, at least.

Not impressed with Outman, who has an unfortunate name for a hitter. 

Posted
9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Wallner 20 HRs 35 RBI is just a funny stat line. 

Mickey Gasper sent a message to Big Dumper tonight. Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear 

Wallner seems to me to the be classic guy when the pressure is off he settles down and hits. The game or season, I hope that can change going forward, 

Posted
9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Wallner 20 HRs 35 RBI is just a funny stat line. 

Mickey Gasper sent a message to Big Dumper tonight. Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear 

I agree. So the question is does wallner Lock up when there are runners on base or is it just a case that we don't have runners on base very often?

Posted

What I want to know is why was Gasper dancing around on the baseline before that catch was made. He should have been standing on 3rd base no matter if the ball was caught or not. He was going to tag up if caught, or walk to home plate if it wasn't. Where was the third base coach during all of this? And besides that, Austin Martin was taking his queues from what Gasper was doing at 3B. He totally was confused by all of that. And again, the third base coaches job is to direct the guy at second base. Once again, our third base coach proves inept, as he has since he has been there. He needs to go. That whole b otched up play was his fault.

Posted

Good comeback. Springer had a country mile worth of home runs - they were crushed. That baserunning, man these guys are bad. 

Posted

Win or lose still unwatchable baseball. Object of the game is score runs not wait or hope for the homerun. Game after game losing in the first inning. 

Gophers and Vikings seasons are starting which is a good thing.

Posted
1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I agree. So the question is does wallner Lock up when there are runners on base or is it just a case that we don't have runners on base very often?

2025

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
RISP 52   67 52 17 9 2 0 2 11 0 1 13 15 .173 .328 .327 .655 17 1 0 0 2 0 0 .189 66 78

 

Kind of looks like it might be a little of both?  He isn't getting a ton of opportunities with RISP... 67 PA's seems low for this far into the season.  He's striking out at less than his normal rate (22%), and actually walking quite a bit more (19%).  Perhaps he has been a more passive hitter in these situations?  His contact in these situations has either been very bad, or very unlucky, as that BIBP of .189 is extraordinarily low for someone who typically hits the ball hard when he makes contact.  Of course, 67 PA's is by definition a very small sample size.

So that was 2025, his career numbers look much, much better (see below), with a much higher BABIP.  Maybe we can hope 2025 is a fluke?
 

 
I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
  RISP 149   210 171 60 45 10 1 11 71 2 1 26 58 .263 .386 .526 .912 90 4 10 0 3 2 2 .324 115
Posted
1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Not impressed with Outman, who has an unfortunate name for a hitter. 

It is really difficult to see Outman earning a roster spot with this team next spring and he's out of options. Over 2024-25 he has a .520 OPS and 87K in 232PA (37.5% strikeouts). 14 K in 32 PA for the Twins (43.75%). He is whiffing more than half the time against breaking and offspeed pitches.

I know they were trading an injured pitcher, but Outman is such a bad return to get back in trade, especially considering the timetable when this team is trying to compete.

Posted
5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I added GB (Games Behind).  Does that help?

P Team
 
W
L PCT GB Eligible
1 Colorado Rockies 38 94 0.288   ---- N0
2 Chicago White Sox 48 84 0.364 10.0  
3 Washington Nationals 53 79 0.402 15.0 N0
4 Pittsburgh Pirates 58 75 0.436 19.5  
5 Atlanta Braves 60 72 0.455 22.0  
6 Minnesota Twins 60 72 0.455 22.0  
8 Baltimore Orioles 60 72 0.455 22.0  
7 Whatever Athletics 62 72 0.463 23.0  
9 Miami Marlins 62 70 0.470 24.0  
10 Los Angeles Angels 62 70 0.470 24.0  
11 Arizona Diamondbacks 64 69 0.481 25.5  
13 San Francisco Giants 64 68 0.485 26.0  
12 Tampa Bay Rays 64 68 0.485 26.0  
14 St. Louis Cardinals 65 68 0.489 26.5  
15 Texas Rangers 67 67 0.500 28.0  

Question for the viewers.  Should I drop the Rockies and the Nationals from this list since they are ineligible for the lottery?  Thoughts?

Posted

Julien is just as bad at 1B as he is at 2B. A good 1B gets that throw off the bounce, the hop wasn't that difficult. I don't see him returning next season. He's a platoon DH and that isn't good enough to earn a roster spot for most MLB teams.

Posted

I believe they gain a year of service time if they option Matthews. I expect Matthews to get optioned for SWR.

Posted
1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Julien is just as bad at 1B as he is at 2B. A good 1B gets that throw off the bounce, the hop wasn't that difficult. I don't see him returning next season. He's a platoon DH and that isn't good enough to earn a roster spot for most MLB teams.

well, you've said it yourself: a GOOD 1B makes that play. an average or below average one doesn't. France maybe makes that play (he was doing well with scoops) but he's also had a lot more experience at the position. Santana makes that play, but he's a gold glover.

Julien has been ok at 1B, just looks inexperienced. He's made some nice plays (looked confident starting that double play) and some shaky ones. If he's gone it'll be because he's not hitting enough.

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