Could Pohlad Family Not Selling Minnesota Twins Be an Inflection Point Toward (Gulp) Relocation?

[Peter Labuza]

Image courtesy of © Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

In September 2023, 46,889 fans gathered at their favorite ballpark to watch their team. The team won in an otherwise lost season, though some of the younger stars shined, while their elite closer finished the game. 

Nobody left right after the final pitch, however, because the moment marked a somber occasion: the last Major League Baseball game in Oakland (for a while, anyway) after 50 years, all because owner John Fisher sought investment opportunities in the form of free government money elsewhere. Since then, the team has played in West Sacramento, in a minor-league ballpark—which the players hate—while failing to secure any money outside the state to begin building in their new “home” of Las Vegas. As of today, it's still not clear the Athletics will ever play in the state of Nevada.

With Wednesday’s announcement that the Pohlads will continue to own the Twins (albeit with a cash infusion to draw down the unnecessary debt they assigned to the team), the question has to be raised: is it becoming (at least incrementally) more likely that the team eventually moves out of Minnesota?

Here are the crucial facts. When the Pohlads signed an agreement with Hennepin County, it secured a runway of 30 years for Target Field through a tax. That tax was actually wildly successful; it's already essentially paid off (with interest!) any of the debt that the state incurred. As Twins fans know from the 2001 decision from Judge Harry Crump, the Twins are legally required to play in the ballpark until the end of the lease. You can find plenty of legal scholars who feel Crump ruled incorrectly, and taking one's chances with the court system is taking one's chances, indeed, these days, but it seems safe to say that that initial lease agreement will be honored, no matter what.

In January of this year, the Minnesota Ballpark Authority (the public entity in charge of the venue) began crafting language that would extend the Twins’ future at Target Field, with 20 years more guaranteed and options for another 20 years. While approved by Hennepin County, the deal required the State legislature to continue the sales tax.

That state budget was passed in June of this year without the tax. Lawmakers suggested punting on the tax till 2026. Instead, they focused on a bipartisan bill to increase hospital funding, given recent Medicaid cuts by the Big, Beautiful Bill that will likely lead to cuts and closures throughout Minnesota.

There's reason to wonder whether the Twins will be able to lobby their way to the passage of that tax extension, at this point. But more importantly, if and when the Pohlads try again to sell the team, maybe they'll be more interested in potential buyers who would take the team elsewhere. Target Field is an architectural jewel and an aesthetic delight for fans, but it's not a state-of-the-art facility from a team operations standpoint, and the area is not viewed as ripe for the kind of development that maximizes profitability.

But there are plenty of cities clamoring for a team, including Nashville, Portland, and Montreal. If the Pohlads remain unhappy owners of a product they do not care about, those other buyers are going to be increasingly attractive over the next decade. In fairness to Joe Pohlad, he insists that that's simply not how the family (or at least a portion of the family) feels, and in fairness to the Twin Cities and Target Field, this is a much better-established and less complicated baseball market than any of the places hankering for expansion or relocation opportunities. However, unless the Twins can find a way to reignite the fanbase, the legislatures may look at the team and feel little pressure to invest taxpayer dollars in the future of the team and its home park. As I studied, the Pohlads have almost always chosen cash over community, again and again.

As Joe Pohlad told employees Wednesday morning, “There is alignment on how we see the Twins moving forward, and also in our belief in the future of baseball in Minnesota.” But what is that shared belief? A destination for decades to come? Or only the next decade? Maybe the story of the A's will be a cautionary tale, and the Twins will have the good sense to stay home. But if Rickey Henderson and "Smoke" (Dave Stewart) weren't enough to anchor that team in its baseball-loving long-time home, neither Joe Mauer nor "Señor Smoke" (Juan Berenguer) can guarantee the future of the Twins in Minnesota.

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[Brandon]

No.  There is a stadium lease.  And I bet the new minority owners have a big minority stake like 30-40% stake to lessen the risk for the Pohlads while keeping them in control.  The Pohlads can use the minority take sales to pay down the team debt to give the team a fresh start.  But the minority owners probably will want to keep payroll in line too.  Also I wonder if one of the minority owners isn’t Mauer…

[RIP BYTO]

Count on the Pohlads doing the wrong thing

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Peter Labuza said:

Image courtesy of © Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

In September 2023, 46,889 fans gathered at their favorite ballpark to watch their team. The team won in an otherwise lost season, though some of the younger stars shined, while their elite closer finished the game. 

Nobody left right after the final pitch, however, because the moment marked a somber occasion: the last Major League Baseball game in Oakland (for a while, anyway) after 50 years, all because owner John Fisher sought investment opportunities in the form of free government money elsewhere. Since then, the team has played in West Sacramento, in a minor-league ballpark—which the players hate—while failing to secure any money outside the state to begin building in their new “home” of Las Vegas. As of today, it's still not clear the Athletics will ever play in the state of Nevada.

With Wednesday’s announcement that the Pohlads will continue to own the Twins (albeit with a cash infusion to draw down the unnecessary debt they assigned to the team), the question has to be raised: is it becoming (at least incrementally) more likely that the team eventually moves out of Minnesota?

Here are the crucial facts. When the Pohlads signed an agreement with Hennepin County, it secured a runway of 30 years for Target Field through a tax. That tax was actually wildly successful; it's already essentially paid off (with interest!) any of the debt that the state incurred. As Twins fans know from the 2001 decision from Judge Harry Crump, the Twins are legally required to play in the ballpark until the end of the lease. You can find plenty of legal scholars who feel Crump ruled incorrectly, and taking one's chances with the court system is taking one's chances, indeed, these days, but it seems safe to say that that initial lease agreement will be honored, no matter what.

In January of this year, the Minnesota Ballpark Authority (the public entity in charge of the venue) began crafting language that would extend the Twins’ future at Target Field, with 20 years more guaranteed and options for another 20 years. While approved by Hennepin County, the deal required the State legislature to continue the sales tax.

That state budget was passed in June of this year without the tax. Lawmakers suggested punting on the tax till 2026. Instead, they focused on a bipartisan bill to increase hospital funding, given recent Medicaid cuts by the Big, Beautiful Bill that will likely lead to cuts and closures throughout Minnesota.

There's reason to wonder whether the Twins will be able to lobby their way to the passage of that tax extension, at this point. But more importantly, if and when the Pohlads try again to sell the team, maybe they'll be more interested in potential buyers who would take the team elsewhere. Target Field is an architectural jewel and an aesthetic delight for fans, but it's not a state-of-the-art facility from a team operations standpoint, and the area is not viewed as ripe for the kind of development that maximizes profitability.

But there are plenty of cities clamoring for a team, including Nashville, Portland, and Montreal. If the Pohlads remain unhappy owners of a product they do not care about, those other buyers are going to be increasingly attractive over the next decade. In fairness to Joe Pohlad, he insists that that's simply not how the family (or at least a portion of the family) feels, and in fairness to the Twin Cities and Target Field, this is a much better-established and less complicated baseball market than any of the places hankering for expansion or relocation opportunities. However, unless the Twins can find a way to reignite the fanbase, the legislatures may look at the team and feel little pressure to invest taxpayer dollars in the future of the team and its home park. As I studied, the Pohlads have almost always chosen cash over community, again and again.

As Joe Pohlad told employees Wednesday morning, “There is alignment on how we see the Twins moving forward, and also in our belief in the future of baseball in Minnesota.” But what is that shared belief? A destination for decades to come? Or only the next decade? Maybe the story of the A's will be a cautionary tale, and the Twins will have the good sense to stay home. But if Rickey Henderson and "Smoke" (Dave Stewart) weren't enough to anchor that team in its baseball-loving long-time home, neither Joe Mauer nor "Señor Smoke" (Juan Berenguer) can guarantee the future of the Twins in Minnesota.

 

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Portland can't support a MLB team. Zero chance. Zero. Intel is holding on as the biggest employer, and the economy is going to really suffer the next few years (or more) until (if) they recover. (I live here).

We're looking at millions and millions of lost tax revenue (more like billions) in the coming years in OR.

I don't think the Twins are going anywhere. TB, The A';s (haven't gotten money for a stadium, haven't broken ground) are still looking for homes.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Portland can't support a MLB team. Zero chance. Zero. Intel is holding on as the biggest employer, and the economy is going to really suffer the next few years (or more) until (if) they recover. (I live here).

We're looking at millions and millions of lost tax revenue (more like billions) in the coming years in OR.

I don't think the Twins are going anywhere. TB, The A';s (haven't gotten money for a stadium, haven't broken ground) are still looking for homes.

That hasn't stopped our state government (sigh) from allocating money (before the Intel layoffs hit, though).

[Matthew Trueblood]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Portland can't support a MLB team. Zero chance. Zero. Intel is holding on as the biggest employer, and the economy is going to really suffer the next few years (or more) until (if) they recover. (I live here).

We're looking at millions and millions of lost tax revenue (more like billions) in the coming years in OR.

I don't think the Twins are going anywhere. TB, The A';s (haven't gotten money for a stadium, haven't broken ground) are still looking for homes.

I agree. I don't think any currently in-play candidate city is a good candidate for relocation at all, in fact. I also think Rob Manfred will try hard to lay the groundwork for expansion before he leaves office, rather thsn allowing more teams to seriously consider relocating. For my money, this is not a major threat. But one thing I like about TD is that we have a variety of smart people contributing thoughtfully, and I do think Peter laid out a fair argument against my own confidence. Even if they move, though, I agree that it's unlikely to be to Portland. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I agree. I don't think any currently in-play candidate city is a good candidate for relocation at all, in fact. I also think Rob Manfred will try hard to lay the groundwork for expansion before he leaves office, rather thsn allowing more teams to seriously consider relocating. For my money, this is not a major threat. But one thing I like about TD is that we have a variety of smart people contributing thoughtfully, and I do think Peter laid out a fair argument against my own confidence. Even if they move, though, I agree that it's unlikely to be to Portland. 

I agree, the OP is well written and argued. 

[The Great Hambino]

MLB is committed to expansion, so that removes two potential relocation sites.  Plus the Rays appear to be back in play from relocation, so there goes another potential relocation site.  That means there could need to be four markets more attractive than the Twin Cities for there to be a feasible move.

Even if you remove the Rays and A's and their temporary parks, there are 24 teams with a stadium older than Target Field.  For sure, some in that group have since extended leases or are otherwise not a relocation threat.  But that still leaves plenty of teams with expiring leases between now and 2040.  So there could be even more potential relocation sites off the table by the time it's even a remote possibility.   Someone really itching to put a team in Nashville, for instance, isn't going to wait on the Twins when the White Sox or Pirates or Reds or any number of other teams might be in play well before then.

Concerns about a move are unfounded

[JBK]

Forty years ago, the Pohlad's were the savior.  Now they're a joke.

[TwinsChupacabra]

Hearing the news yesterday was like attending a funeral.  It really felt like the death of my favorite team growing up and until Rocco (my favorite team as an adult).  You can sense the doom.  This site has the most loyal fans there are, AND they are almost universally against this news, this trend, this direction of the team.  As many have posted, expect the worst from the Pohlads.  They are excellent at letting the fans down.  They are going to continue to drag down this team until there is nothing left; no fan base, no chance of state govt support, no local sports coverage (because no one will care).  There is no Harry Crump left to save the day. 

[Doctor Gast]

Pohlads have always said they love the community, love the fans & their family value is very important to them. So no, they aren't moving.

[jkcarew]

I see the Polads retaining control as making a move less likely even in the medium-to-longish term. Also, Oakland isn’t happening as the lead photo suggests. Somewhere like Raleigh-Durham or Nashville being way more likely IMO.

[howeda7]

No. It isn't. Stop it. This article is the definition of click-bait. You guys are better than this.

[Nshore]

Put an exciting, young, winning team on the field and the fans will come. 

Put a team out there that plays disinterested, error infested, AAAA ball and they won't come.

Good attendance = revenue = stability.

[Patzky]

18 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

MLB is committed to expansion, so that removes two potential relocation sites.  Plus the Rays appear to be back in play from relocation, so there goes another potential relocation site.  That means there could need to be four markets more attractive than the Twin Cities for there to be a feasible move.

Even if you remove the Rays and A's and their temporary parks, there are 24 teams with a stadium older than Target Field.  For sure, some in that group have since extended leases or are otherwise not a relocation threat.  But that still leaves plenty of teams with expiring leases between now and 2040.  So there could be even more potential relocation sites off the table by the time it's even a remote possibility.   Someone really itching to put a team in Nashville, for instance, isn't going to wait on the Twins when the White Sox or Pirates or Reds or any number of other teams might be in play well before then.

Concerns about a move are unfounded

I always hear Nashville and maintain that the Braves will never allow that to pass.

[mnfireman]

Is this one of those articles that attempt to show humor??

[mikelink45]

This article does not have any actual basis but is indicative of how unsettled we all are now that the Pohlads have established themselves as long term viruses for the Twins and community. 

[nicksaviking]

The Twins have the fourth newest ballpark in the league. even excluding the vintage parks of the Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs, that means there are 23 other clubs that would object if any Twins owner tried to steal their relocation threat cities. 

[Vanimal46]

Relocation is the last box the Pohlads need to check off to pass Norm Green as the worst sports owner in MN history. 

[Twins GFP]

Of all the negative issues currently swirling around the Twins, this has to be at least 47th on the list of concerns. Maybe lower, but only because it is a very long list.

[Sjoski]

43 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Put an exciting, young, winning team on the field and the fans 

...will come.

_____

I’ll second this proclamation… with the usual Minnesota-sized grain of salt.

 

It’s a big IF—but IF Keaschall keeps lighting up the scoreboard, IF a couple of Falvey’s gambles actually pay off, and IF Lee and Lewis find their stride—then sure, the Twins could become competitive again sooner than we think.

 

And if that happens, yes… we’ll all dust off our “Go Twins” gear and hop back on the bandwagon. But until those “IFs” turn into wins, I’ll be keeping my distance from Target Field. 

 

 

[jmlease1]

It's always going to be a threat when you have owners like the Pohlads. Is it likely, or the biggest threat to Twins fandom? No, but it's always going to be lurking.

Stadium situations are usually the biggest impetus driving relocation, and the Twins status is still pretty good on that one.

[Patzky]

11 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

...will come.

_____

I’ll second this proclamation… with the usual Minnesota-sized grain of salt.

 

It’s a big IF—but IF Keaschall keeps lighting up the scoreboard, IF a couple of Falvey’s gambles actually pay off, and IF Lee and Lewis find their stride—then sure, the Twins could become competitive again sooner than we think.

 

And if that happens, yes… we’ll all dust off our “Go Twins” gear and hop back on the bandwagon. But until those “IFs” turn into wins, I’ll be keeping my distance from Target Field. 

 

 

Hell I'll be excited if 41 and 49 are still on the hill in April.. and not because someone else got their numbers.

[SaberNerd]

When you suggest that the Twins could move to Montreal, I can't take you at all seriously.  How did the last team there work out?

[bunsen82]

Wow . . . there is nothing to suggest that relocation is even a consideration in 12-13 years, let alone the possibilities of such.   

We need to see what the new CBA is.   We need to see if minimums and caps are going to be instituted similar to the NBA.  We have no idea who or what ownership will be in 2037.   Most likely, Target field will still be a top 15 stadium.   It is also undetermined as to the success of the teams moving forward and whether the quality of players can rejuvenate the Twins similar to 2001.  You also have other teams like Tampa Bay Rays that their long term status needs to be resolved in the near future.  Heck the Marlins are in a worse situation than the Twins.   

There are so many what ifs, so little foresight into such a long horizon to even postulate the question as an article other than continuing to trying to capitalize on negative fan sentiment.   

When will we start getting more positive articles on Twinsdaily?  Been a rough 2 weeks.   

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Stadium situations are usually the biggest impetus driving relocation, and the Twins status is still pretty good on that one.

"We're going to move the Twins to Nashville! Surely you won't mind Mr. Reinsdorf?"

[chpettit19]

I don't think it's possible the Twins are moving before the end of their Target Field lease (the article appears to be agreeing with that), and trying to predict further than that feels like a fools errand. Will the Pohlads even own the Twins still at that point? That's a long ways away still. Like, really far. The landscape of major league baseball will be completely different by then. Media deals, market sizes, the CBA, team building strategies, everything will be different. I have no idea if the PR nightmare #4183 in the last 22 months is a step closer to the Twins being relocated. I don't know that we can make any kind of educated guesses about that right now. We don't even know who these minority owners are.

But I will say that I don't think it's outrageous to think that the more damage the Pohlads do to fan relations and the longer they own it the more realistic relocation becomes. If they completely scorch the earth of the Twin Cities market for this franchise and tank its value, eventually they'll just find whoever they can to buy it for whatever they can get and then all bets are off with what that person will do when they're able to do it.

[jmlease1]

43 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

"We're going to move the Twins to Nashville! Surely you won't mind Mr. Reinsdorf?"

I think you meant, "Mr. Ishbia"...

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins have the fourth newest ballpark in the league. even excluding the vintage parks of the Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs, that means there are 23 other clubs that would object if any Twins owner tried to steal their relocation threat cities. 

I agree that relocation is very unlikely, but there's a difference between having the fourth-newest park and having the fourth-most stable stadium situation. There will, as Peter points out, be a tricky needle to thread in the next few years as Target Field comes due for some important renovations and the team (whether owned by the Pohlads at that point or not) tries to create development space around the park itself. That's worth keeping in mind.

[Dman]

I just don't see re-location as a serious thing.  Granted the Twins are on the bottom end of payroll, but certainly no different than 8 to 10 other teams and they have been at the top end of those teams in spending recently.  

I think the Twins just made a solid business decision.  they got more money per share from the minority owners so why not do that deal?  The team is only going to increase in value not decrease.  Once the new CBA is settled it will be a better time to sell the team.  I think this is more about waiting for a better windfall than anything else.  Like most Twins moves the Pohlad;s want an overpay to move on the from team.  They didn't feel they were getting that so here we are.

I don't think that means any nefarious plans to move the team are in play.  Could it happen? Sure anything can happen. The odds seem pretty low to me though.