Breaking Down Rocco Baldelli’s Decision to Pull Bailey Ober

[Matthew Taylor]

Rocco Baldelli’s decision to pull Bailey Ober after six strong innings and just 73 pitches in Thursday’s loss to the Royals has drawn plenty of criticism. But was it the wrong move, or just an unlucky outcome? Let’s break down the reasoning behind the call and why it sparked such a debate.

Thursday’s 3–2 loss to the Royals sparked frustration across Twins Territory—not just because of the result, but because of a decision that will be debated for some time: Rocco Baldelli pulling Bailey Ober from the game after six innings and just 73 pitches in a one-run game.

The move, followed immediately by a disastrous inning from reliever Cole Sands, raised eyebrows. Sands allowed a hit-by-pitch, back-to-back singles, and a sac fly after striking out the leadoff batter, giving Kansas City the lead for good. On its face, it looked like a manager outthinking himself. But let’s take a closer look at why Baldelli made the call he did.

Pitch Count vs. Times Through the Order
Ober's pitch count—just 73 after six innings—suggested he had plenty left in the tank. But in today’s game, managers weigh "times through the order" more heavily than raw pitch totals. It's no secret that hitters improve significantly the more they see a pitcher.

At the end of the sixth, Ober had just faced Royals' number six hitter, Maikel Garcia. That meant the seventh would begin with batters 7-8-9 for their third look at Ober—reasonable territory for a starter like him. But the real issue wasn’t the start of the inning—it was the potential end.

If Ober allowed even one baserunner, the top of the Royals order—India, Witt Jr., Pasquantino—would be looming for a fourth look at Ober. That simply wasn't going to happen.

Velocity Dip and Stamina Questions

Times through the order wasn't the only reason for pulling Ober from the game though, performance and stamina were also a part of the decision, and Baldelli said as much in his postgame presser:

"His stuff as the game went on did tick down a little bit and that was part of the conversation."

The numbers back Baldelli up. Ober opened the game sitting around 92 mph on his fastball, but by the sixth inning, that had dropped to the 89 range. That’s not uncommon, especially considering Ober was still building back up from a spring illness that cost him nearly 10 pounds and probably should have pushed back his season debut. In fact, this was the first time in 2025 that he had completed more than four innings.

"In his last three outings, the most he's gone is four innings," Baldelli noted. "He wasn't going to go out there and get close to doubling that up."

Why Not Let Him Face the Bottom of the Order?
The main counterpoint fans bring up is that Ober could have started the seventh against the Royals’ 7-8-9 hitters. Maybe he gets through them cleanly. Maybe you steal two or three more outs.

But Baldelli didn’t want to risk having to bring in a reliever mid-inning with traffic on the bases—especially not against the top of Kansas City’s lineup. Managers will always prefer giving relievers a clean slate. Bringing Cole Sands in at the start of the seventh meant putting a fresh arm against the bottom of the order with no inherited runners and no margin for error.

Sands had been one of Baldelli’s most trusted bullpen options. He owns a career 3.27 ERA as a reliever, and the plan to get him a clean inning against less threatening bats made plenty of sense—on paper.

Hindsight Is 20/20
Of course, it didn’t work out. Sands got tagged, the Royals took the lead, and the Twins couldn’t claw back. When a decision backfires, it’s always ripe for second-guessing.

But while we’ll never know how things might have gone had Ober stayed in to start the seventh, Baldelli’s choice was grounded in real data, recent performance, and a desire to avoid worst-case scenarios. You might not like the outcome, but the process had logic behind it.

What did you think of Rocco Baldelli’s decision to pull Ober? Should he have trusted his starter to go just a little bit further, or was it the right move with the wrong result?

Let’s hear your take in the comments below.

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[thelanges5]

Doesn’t really matter. Offense went 1-9 with RISP. Only 9 runs in the 4 games in KC. 
 

These season stats explain the 4-9 start:

.199 AVG, .596 OPS

3.38 runs per game

[mikelink45]

No. How about letting our starting pitching learn how to handle a multiple times through the lineup? I have enough pitches. They have enough variety and we have been overworking our bullpen.

[TwinsDr2021]

"but the process had logic behind it."

Why not also bring up how bad Ober has been against the Royals in the past? It was a silly decision and it cost the Twins an important win. It would be understandable if the plan was Sands, Jax/Duran for the final 3, but Jax wasn't available. It would also be understandable if Ober had been pitching in stressful situations though out the game, but if not for a Miranda error in the 5th the Royals would not have had two bases runners since the first.

We have no idea what would have happened if they left Ober in, but we do know the results of taking him out after giving up 5 hits in 1 walk in 6 innings with only 73 pitches and there is not amount of magical mystical data that proves it was the correct decision.

Did I miss the article that said there would have been logic for pulling Ryan after six the night before?

[dxpavelka]

It feels like big league managers have developed some sort of an obsession with having relief pitchers START and complete an inning.  Yesterday was the perfect example.  Pitcher was pitching well. Run him out there to start the next inning.  If he struggles with those 7-8-9 batters or the guys at the top after, pull him.  But give him the chance. Who knows, Cole Sands might have fared better coming in in the middle of the inning, maybe with one or two outs already recorded.  The third time thru the order thing seems a bit ridiculous.  Based solely on analytics.  A manager should be able to sense that a pitcher has something left in the tank and base his decision making on something other than analytics.  If not, why employ a human to do the job.  Hire AI or one of those machines everyone is touting to call balls and strikes.  Same thing goes for that magical number of a hundred pitches in a start.  It's entirely possible that a pitcher just might be able to throw 107 pitches and be effective and not have his arm fall off now or in the future. And, just for Twins fans to note, it ain't just Rocco.  There might be some other guys who on occasion make a decision that works out that we feel like Rocco wouldn't have made but by and large they all seem to play with the same playbook.

[Twinsoholic]

Matthew Taylor writes: “But while we’ll never know how things might have gone had Ober stayed in to start the seventh, Baldelli’s choice was grounded in real data, recent performance, and a desire to avoid worst-case scenarios. You might not like the outcome, but the process had logic behind it.”

 

The ghost of Earl Weaver says Big Deal if there was “real data” contextualizing Baldelli’s decision to remove Ober. Weaver also relied on “real data” when he guided the Orioles, counting on his starting pitchers’ athletic ability to pitch deep into games (and be super successful). 
 

We live in an age of fetishization of “real data,” the rhetoric of numbers, so I assume Baldelli will remain consistent in his anti-Weaverian approach. Perhaps Sands will do better next time—I am sure he will get a lot of similar chances. 

[Whitey333]

I'm so glad you have Baldellis back.  I'm not sure if it was right or wrong.  All I can say is when he left the game after only 73 pitches and doing well I knew disaster would happen.  Isn't this the same Baldelli who had Ober pitch the first game after Ober was sick and was on an IV the day before?  Isn't this the same Baldelli that let Ober pitch after losing 8 pounds and was weak?  Weak?  That's Baldelli.

[karcherd]

This is why we burn out our bullpen.  When there is an opportunity to reduce their innings, Baldelli doesn't do it.  These quick hooks add up over a season.

[Jkeady12]

Everybody gets on me when I post that Rocco is a sub-par manager, but as always he comes through and proves me right. In game decision making and when to use the bullen are not his strong suit.

[laloesch]

Sorry, I'm not interested in the excuses.  Ober was pitching very well and only at 73 pitches at the end of the sixth, he should have gone out another inning.  Preseason is for ramping up innings, not vice versa.

I think Baldelli overthinks things.  Stick with the hot hand.

[CRF]

Nope...but it sure would be real nice if we could hit a little bit and score some runs for our pitchers. 

[twinfan]

There can be 2 things said about today's managers. One is that they baby the pitchers too much by pulling them too early (although in this case it was understandable) and the other is they save their closer for the last inning when some games may be won or lost in the 7th or 8th inning. But the overall fact for the Twins right now is their lack of hitting- especially with men on base.

[MMMordabito]

Just fire Baldelli and then you don't have to worry about what he should or shouldn't have done anymore. He may not be all of the problem, but he's none of the solution.

[laloesch]

13 minutes ago, twinfan said:

There can be 2 things said about today's managers. One is that they baby the pitchers too much by pulling them too early (although in this case it was understandable) and the other is they save their closer for the last inning when some games may be won or lost in the 7th or 8th inning. But the overall fact for the Twins right now is their lack of hitting- especially with men on base.

You don't think Ober could have started the seventh?  Genuine question. He was going strong and only at 73 pitches at the end of the sixth, which is well within acceptable limits and wasn't laboring.  He could easily have gone 6-2/3 if not 7 if you ask me.  This multiple times through the order stuff the author of the column outlined is overhyped.  Stick with the hot hand. 

I agree though these pitchers are getting babied wayyyy to much.  

[kenneth frank]

Baldelli just doesn't have this team clicking, very similar to the last couple of months last season.  Something is missing...communication, encouragement, motivation? Is he overthinking strategy and not connected with his team?

[Sjoski]

About the only thing Rocco can do is fill out a line up card...even that talent is questionable. 

TK said the hardest part of managing is the bullpen, it's a balance between use and over use.

And that's were Rocco failures begin and end.

[Old Crow]

Hitters adjust and pitchers don't?  I wonder how many pitchers sweat facing the vaunted Twins lineup three times?

[GOONER759]

Nice you try and give Baldelli cover. Not the first time he’s done this. There was no valid reason to pull him at 73.  It’s his game to win or lose. He’s so worried about him being tired but sure wasn’t so worried he sent him to the mound after throwing up all night. Bullpen was already stretched thin and when an opportunity arises to give them time off you pull him because of what may happen. Then you say well if the 7 8 or 9 hitter gets on base he’ll have to face the top. Well one let’s give him that chance and two tell the bald one to quit managing with his magic 8 ball. 

[Patzky]

39 minutes ago, Twinsoholic said:

Matthew Taylor writes: “But while we’ll never know how things might have gone had Ober stayed in to start the seventh, Baldelli’s choice was grounded in real data, recent performance, and a desire to avoid worst-case scenarios. You might not like the outcome, but the process had logic behind it.”

 

The ghost of Earl Weaver says Big Deal if there was “real data” contextualizing Baldelli’s decision to remove Ober. Weaver also relied on “real data” when he guided the Orioles, counting on his starting pitchers’ athletic ability to pitch deep into games (and be super successful). 
 

We live in an age of fetishization of “real data,” the rhetoric of numbers, so I assume Baldelli will remain consistent in his anti-Weaverian approach. Perhaps Sands will do better next time—I am sure he will get a lot of similar chances. 

Sands could have imploded in the eighth just as easily. 

[Mark G]

I know, you can't prove a negative; hind sight is 20-20.......pick your favorite cliche.  What it boils down to is this is who the man is.  He is not going to change.  He has a plan, a schedule, so to speak, and he is going to follow it.  The FO seems to like it; the fans seem to hate it (count me in that group).  Should we revisit the question as to why attendance is down?  🤔

[hitterscount]

He does this all the time, yesterday wasn’t the first and won’t be the last as iIt backfires consistently. Ober is one of your most reliable pitchers and yanking him with a low pitch count is malfeasance on Rocco., don’t care how many times he has been through the order. A competitor wants to compete. You want to have someone warming up, warranted, Ober knows this is his last inning, but you don’t pull arguably most consistent starter over the past two years  there. Another Rocco  mismanaged situation that continues to cost the team wins is constantly flipping Jax and Duran around in the closer role. When i say he costs the team 18-20 wins a year, every blown decision is a two game swing. Might already be at 6 in the young season. 

[TwinsDr2021]

This article makes me feel like Matthew Taylor's family was being held hostage and he was forced to write an article explaining why and how Rocco did the right things. (Hopefully everybody is all right)

"If Ober allowed even one baserunner, the top of the Royals' order—Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., and Vinny Pasquantino—would be looming for a fourth look at Ober. That simply wasn't going to happen."

So lets say Ober does come out and one of the three or even two of three get on, they could have still brought in a relief pitcher before Ober had to face somebody four times. But lets be honest India isn't somebody anybody  should scared of. (Witt on the other hand) By this time he will be mostly likely well over 80 pitches and nobody complains about him coming out.

Articles like this go with the other article about lack of attendance, If people are telling/writing about how the fans are too stupid to understand how complex and ahead of the curve the Twins really are we are probably not bright enough to figure out how to even buy tickets.

[lunemann]

I wonder if the Pohlads can even afford to pay for another manager.

Also, with the team for sale I'm not sure we would have many top tier candidates interested who then might get fired when a new owner wants to bring in their own guy. I fear we are just stuck with what we have until the Pohlads are gone. 20 years too late.

[Doug V]

Baldelli does this all the time. Who would want to be a starting pitcher for this guy. Fake news that the twins bullpen is their strength. 

[tony&rodney]

Unless Ober told Maki or Baldelli that he was finished, it is simply folly to construct veins of excuses to remove Ober from the game. Ask yourself - is Ober a max effort pitcher? Does his velocity create outs? If you answer either of those questions with a yes, you have created your own excuse. My experience watching Ober is that he thrives on pitch selection mixed with hitting locations. Ober is easily capable of 100+ pitches, especially when one considers the weather. It doesn't make any difference if Ober was going to face the top of the lineup a fourth time. He was totally in control of the game. The Royals hitters were all happy and energized when they didn't see him walk out to the mound for the 7th inning. There was no data on yesterday's game when the decision was made to pull Ober. I have enormous confidence in the bullpen. The Twins have a good pitching staff. The offense is not producing runs and most of the bats are feeling for the ball unsuccessfully. None of that has anything to do with pulling Ober at 73 pitches in a game he totally controlled. Now I will repeat the caveat of whether Ober said anything to Maki or Baldelli. Did he?

[The Great Hambino]

In a vacuum, there's some logic to pulling him as outlined in the article.

But games aren't played in a vacuum.

I think Baldelli's biggest strategic failure is being too hyper-focused on a specific matchup while ignoring how the decision affects the rest of the entire game, sometimes future games.  In the past, this was highlighted most prominently in selling out for the platoon advantage in the middle of the game. 

He seems to have backed off that tactic this year, but pulling Ober the way he did when the bullpen has already been stretched past its limits multiple times in this short season is a different symptom of this same disease.  Any additional innings - even any additional outs - that the starter can eat saves a bullpen arm for the next day.  As we've seen, the opportunities for starters to gobble up these additional outs have been few and far between.  The next three starts are AAA call-up, Paddack, SWR with no off days.  The likelihood of dipping deep into the bullpen well over this stretch is high.  Failing to account for this was a big missed opportunity to mitigate that risk.

Analytics are not the problem.  It's another word for information.  All successful teams use them heavily.  Ask White Sox and Rockies fans how ignoring analytics has worked out.  But just because most teams use them doesn't mean they all use them effectively.  They could be using the same information at hand to make decisions in a more effective manner, but too often fail to see the forest for the trees.  The problem isn't analytics, it's that Rocco isn't very good at using them.  The problem's the carpenter, not the tool.

 

[Jeff K]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Unless Ober told Maki or Baldelli that he was finished, it is simply folly to construct veins of excuses to remove Ober from the game. Ask yourself - is Ober a max effort pitcher? Does his velocity create outs? If you answer either of those questions with a yes, you have created your own excuse. My experience watching Ober is that he thrives on pitch selection mixed with hitting locations. Ober is easily capable of 100+ pitches, especially when one considers the weather. It doesn't make any difference if Ober was going to face the top of the lineup a fourth time. He was totally in control of the game. The Royals hitters were all happy and energized when they didn't see him walk out to the mound for the 7th inning. There was no data on yesterday's game when the decision was made to pull Ober. I have enormous confidence in the bullpen. The Twins have a good pitching staff. The offense is not producing runs and most of the bats are feeling for the ball unsuccessfully. None of that has anything to do with pulling Ober at 73 pitches in a game he totally controlled. Now I will repeat the caveat of whether Ober said anything to Maki or Baldelli. Did he?

Your caveat is noted.  Failing that, there is no way I would pull Ober.  This is a perfect example of overthinking by the manager.  Something Baldelli excels at.

[kmwerfamily]

This is why we are 15-36 in our last 51 games, and Rocco has his hand in all of it. Batting order, pinch hitting/platoon, wasting starters performance, and dependence on a bullpen that is not as good as advertised-whether they start an inning or complete an inning.

[old nurse]

53 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Sands could have imploded in the eighth just as easily. 

That ruins the narrative. 

[Coach Wheels]

Regardless of the outcome, getting 18 outs out of Ober yesterday should have been the minimum of what he pitched yesterday. He was 2024 Ober yesterday and when the 3 at the front of your rotation are pitching like he was yesterday, 18 outs has be the goal.

The Twins lost because the offense is awful through 13 games; a real lack of power and hitting for average. Twins have never been a team that's built to run. 

6 at home with Detroit and the Mets..........April is looking like a long month.