Was Rocco Baldelli's Decision to Pull Bailey Ober the Right One?

Doesn’t really matter. Offense went 1-9 with RISP. Only 9 runs in the 4 games in KC. 
 

These season stats explain the 4-9 start:

.199 AVG, .596 OPS

3.38 runs per game

"but the process had logic behind it."

Why not also bring up how bad Ober has been against the Royals in the past? It was a silly decision and it cost the Twins an important win. It would be understandable if the plan was Sands, Jax/Duran for the final 3, but Jax wasn't available. It would also be understandable if Ober had been pitching in stressful situations though out the game, but if not for a Miranda error in the 5th the Royals would not have had two bases runners since the first.

We have no idea what would have happened if they left Ober in, but we do know the results of taking him out after giving up 5 hits in 1 walk in 6 innings with only 73 pitches and there is not amount of magical mystical data that proves it was the correct decision.

Did I miss the article that said there would have been logic for pulling Ryan after six the night before?

It feels like big league managers have developed some sort of an obsession with having relief pitchers START and complete an inning.  Yesterday was the perfect example.  Pitcher was pitching well. Run him out there to start the next inning.  If he struggles with those 7-8-9 batters or the guys at the top after, pull him.  But give him the chance. Who knows, Cole Sands might have fared better coming in in the middle of the inning, maybe with one or two outs already recorded.  The third time thru the order thing seems a bit ridiculous.  Based solely on analytics.  A manager should be able to sense that a pitcher has something left in the tank and base his decision making on something other than analytics.  If not, why employ a human to do the job.  Hire AI or one of those machines everyone is touting to call balls and strikes.  Same thing goes for that magical number of a hundred pitches in a start.  It's entirely possible that a pitcher just might be able to throw 107 pitches and be effective and not have his arm fall off now or in the future. And, just for Twins fans to note, it ain't just Rocco.  There might be some other guys who on occasion make a decision that works out that we feel like Rocco wouldn't have made but by and large they all seem to play with the same playbook.

Matthew Taylor writes: “But while we’ll never know how things might have gone had Ober stayed in to start the seventh, Baldelli’s choice was grounded in real data, recent performance, and a desire to avoid worst-case scenarios. You might not like the outcome, but the process had logic behind it.”

The ghost of Earl Weaver says Big Deal if there was “real data” contextualizing Baldelli’s decision to remove Ober. Weaver also relied on “real data” when he guided the Orioles, counting on his starting pitchers’ athletic ability to pitch deep into games (and be super successful). 
 

We live in an age of fetishization of “real data,” the rhetoric of numbers, so I assume Baldelli will remain consistent in his anti-Weaverian approach. Perhaps Sands will do better next time—I am sure he will get a lot of similar chances. 

I'm so glad you have Baldellis back.  I'm not sure if it was right or wrong.  All I can say is when he left the game after only 73 pitches and doing well I knew disaster would happen.  Isn't this the same Baldelli who had Ober pitch the first game after Ober was sick and was on an IV the day before?  Isn't this the same Baldelli that let Ober pitch after losing 8 pounds and was weak?  Weak?  That's Baldelli.

This is why we burn out our bullpen.  When there is an opportunity to reduce their innings, Baldelli doesn't do it.  These quick hooks add up over a season.

Everybody gets on me when I post that Rocco is a sub-par manager, but as always he comes through and proves me right. In game decision making and when to use the bullen are not his strong suit.

Sorry, I'm not interested in the excuses.  Ober was pitching very well and only at 73 pitches at the end of the sixth, he should have gone out another inning.  Preseason is for ramping up innings, not vice versa.

I think Baldelli overthinks things.  Stick with the hot hand.

Nope...but it sure would be real nice if we could hit a little bit and score some runs for our pitchers. 

There can be 2 things said about today's managers. One is that they baby the pitchers too much by pulling them too early (although in this case it was understandable) and the other is they save their closer for the last inning when some games may be won or lost in the 7th or 8th inning. But the overall fact for the Twins right now is their lack of hitting- especially with men on base.

Just fire Baldelli and then you don't have to worry about what he should or shouldn't have done anymore. He may not be all of the problem, but he's none of the solution.

13 minutes ago, twinfan said:

There can be 2 things said about today's managers. One is that they baby the pitchers too much by pulling them too early (although in this case it was understandable) and the other is they save their closer for the last inning when some games may be won or lost in the 7th or 8th inning. But the overall fact for the Twins right now is their lack of hitting- especially with men on base.

You don't think Ober could have started the seventh?  Genuine question. He was going strong and only at 73 pitches at the end of the sixth, which is well within acceptable limits and wasn't laboring.  He could easily have gone 6-2/3 if not 7 if you ask me.  This multiple times through the order stuff the author of the column outlined is overhyped.  Stick with the hot hand. 

I agree though these pitchers are getting babied wayyyy to much.  

Baldelli just doesn't have this team clicking, very similar to the last couple of months last season.  Something is missing...communication, encouragement, motivation? Is he overthinking strategy and not connected with his team?

About the only thing Rocco can do is fill out a line up card...even that talent is questionable. 

TK said the hardest part of managing is the bullpen, it's a balance between use and over use.

And that's were Rocco failures begin and end.

Hitters adjust and pitchers don't?  I wonder how many pitchers sweat facing the vaunted Twins lineup three times?

Nice you try and give Baldelli cover. Not the first time he’s done this. There was no valid reason to pull him at 73.  It’s his game to win or lose. He’s so worried about him being tired but sure wasn’t so worried he sent him to the mound after throwing up all night. Bullpen was already stretched thin and when an opportunity arises to give them time off you pull him because of what may happen. Then you say well if the 7 8 or 9 hitter gets on base he’ll have to face the top. Well one let’s give him that chance and two tell the bald one to quit managing with his magic 8 ball. 

I know, you can't prove a negative; hind sight is 20-20.......pick your favorite cliche.  What it boils down to is this is who the man is.  He is not going to change.  He has a plan, a schedule, so to speak, and he is going to follow it.  The FO seems to like it; the fans seem to hate it (count me in that group).  Should we revisit the question as to why attendance is down?  🤔

He does this all the time, yesterday wasn’t the first and won’t be the last as iIt backfires consistently. Ober is one of your most reliable pitchers and yanking him with a low pitch count is malfeasance on Rocco., don’t care how many times he has been through the order. A competitor wants to compete. You want to have someone warming up, warranted, Ober knows this is his last inning, but you don’t pull arguably most consistent starter over the past two years  there. Another Rocco  mismanaged situation that continues to cost the team wins is constantly flipping Jax and Duran around in the closer role. When i say he costs the team 18-20 wins a year, every blown decision is a two game swing. Might already be at 6 in the young season. 

This article makes me feel like Matthew Taylor's family was being held hostage and he was forced to write an article explaining why and how Rocco did the right things. (Hopefully everybody is all right)

"If Ober allowed even one baserunner, the top of the Royals' order—Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., and Vinny Pasquantino—would be looming for a fourth look at Ober. That simply wasn't going to happen."

So lets say Ober does come out and one of the three or even two of three get on, they could have still brought in a relief pitcher before Ober had to face somebody four times. But lets be honest India isn't somebody anybody  should scared of. (Witt on the other hand) By this time he will be mostly likely well over 80 pitches and nobody complains about him coming out.

Articles like this go with the other article about lack of attendance, If people are telling/writing about how the fans are too stupid to understand how complex and ahead of the curve the Twins really are we are probably not bright enough to figure out how to even buy tickets.

I wonder if the Pohlads can even afford to pay for another manager.

Also, with the team for sale I'm not sure we would have many top tier candidates interested who then might get fired when a new owner wants to bring in their own guy. I fear we are just stuck with what we have until the Pohlads are gone. 20 years too late.

Unless Ober told Maki or Baldelli that he was finished, it is simply folly to construct veins of excuses to remove Ober from the game. Ask yourself - is Ober a max effort pitcher? Does his velocity create outs? If you answer either of those questions with a yes, you have created your own excuse. My experience watching Ober is that he thrives on pitch selection mixed with hitting locations. Ober is easily capable of 100+ pitches, especially when one considers the weather. It doesn't make any difference if Ober was going to face the top of the lineup a fourth time. He was totally in control of the game. The Royals hitters were all happy and energized when they didn't see him walk out to the mound for the 7th inning. There was no data on yesterday's game when the decision was made to pull Ober. I have enormous confidence in the bullpen. The Twins have a good pitching staff. The offense is not producing runs and most of the bats are feeling for the ball unsuccessfully. None of that has anything to do with pulling Ober at 73 pitches in a game he totally controlled. Now I will repeat the caveat of whether Ober said anything to Maki or Baldelli. Did he?

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Unless Ober told Maki or Baldelli that he was finished, it is simply folly to construct veins of excuses to remove Ober from the game. Ask yourself - is Ober a max effort pitcher? Does his velocity create outs? If you answer either of those questions with a yes, you have created your own excuse. My experience watching Ober is that he thrives on pitch selection mixed with hitting locations. Ober is easily capable of 100+ pitches, especially when one considers the weather. It doesn't make any difference if Ober was going to face the top of the lineup a fourth time. He was totally in control of the game. The Royals hitters were all happy and energized when they didn't see him walk out to the mound for the 7th inning. There was no data on yesterday's game when the decision was made to pull Ober. I have enormous confidence in the bullpen. The Twins have a good pitching staff. The offense is not producing runs and most of the bats are feeling for the ball unsuccessfully. None of that has anything to do with pulling Ober at 73 pitches in a game he totally controlled. Now I will repeat the caveat of whether Ober said anything to Maki or Baldelli. Did he?

Your caveat is noted.  Failing that, there is no way I would pull Ober.  This is a perfect example of overthinking by the manager.  Something Baldelli excels at.

This is why we are 15-36 in our last 51 games, and Rocco has his hand in all of it. Batting order, pinch hitting/platoon, wasting starters performance, and dependence on a bullpen that is not as good as advertised-whether they start an inning or complete an inning.

53 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Sands could have imploded in the eighth just as easily. 

That ruins the narrative. 

Regardless of the outcome, getting 18 outs out of Ober yesterday should have been the minimum of what he pitched yesterday. He was 2024 Ober yesterday and when the 3 at the front of your rotation are pitching like he was yesterday, 18 outs has be the goal.

The Twins lost because the offense is awful through 13 games; a real lack of power and hitting for average. Twins have never been a team that's built to run. 

6 at home with Detroit and the Mets..........April is looking like a long month.

Another frustrating loss directly attributed to Baldelli not trusting his starters.