Minnesota Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Right Field

[Nick Nelson]

The departure of Max Kepler via free agency represented the end of an era in right field for the Minnesota Twins. Now the stage is set for homegrown slugger Matt Wallner to dawn an era of his own.

Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-Imagn Images

Every year from 2017 through 2024, Max Kepler was in right field for the Twins on Opening Day, a run of eight consecutive seasons. To find another example of a Twins player starting at the same spot on Opening Day that many times in a row, you have to go all the way back to first baseman Kent Hrbek from 1982 to 1991.

Matt Wallner is on track to be Minnesota's Opening Day starter in right field this year, relocating from last year's temporary stay in left. Will it be the start of his own streak? At age 27, coming off an outstanding season, Wallner is poised to make the position his own.

TWINS RIGHT FIELDERS AT A GLANCE

Starter: Matt Wallner
Backup: Harrison Bader
Depth: Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
Prospects: Walker Jenkins, Brandon Winokur, Gabriel Gonzalez

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 13th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 10th out of 30

THE GOOD
Since the start of the 2023 season, Wallner's .381 wOBA ranks 12th-best among all major-leaguers with more than 500 plate appearances. The 11 names in front of him on that list represent a who's-who of All-Stars and MVP contenders. So far in his young career he's been one of the best overall hitters in baseball, and at an offense-oriented position like right field, that's what you want.

Yes, he's an imposing power hitter who produces some of the loudest contact and longest drives of any player in MLB. With a big swing and sky-high strikeout rates, he fits the traditional prototype for a right field slugger. But Wallner is also just a very effective hitter overall, with solid patience and a tendency for drawing HBPs helping him post a team-leading .371 on-base percentage over the past two seasons.

 

In recognition of his all-around offensive impact, Rocco Baldelli has been routinely batting Wallner in the leadoff spot this spring, an arrangement the manager seems open to sticking with in the regular season. On the surface Wallner is anything BUT the traditional prototype for the leadoff role, as a slow-running power threat who whiffs as much as anyone in the league. But it's hard to argue with setting up your best hitter to get the most plate appearances, and on paper, Wallner has been exactly that.

“He not only was our best hitter in the second half of the season, there was a long stretch where he was one of the five best hitters in the league," Baldelli told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune for a recent article. 

The depth behind Wallner in right field is similar to left field, with a number of capable corner options ready to step in, including Harrison Bader, Willi Castro and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. But in contrast to nearly every other key player on the Twins, Wallner has a sturdy history of durability. Old "Cement Bones" manages to come away from every scary collision or HBP intact; he played 142 games between Triple-A and the majors last year, and 143 the year before.

 

THE BAD
The threat to Wallner's progression than an injury is another prolonged slump at the plate, or worse yet, a bunch of them. Last year he flailed away in spring and then stumbled out of the gates in the regular season, earning him a ticket to Triple-A for nearly three months. There's no doubt he'll have much more rope going forward, following an emphatic second-half statement, but Wallner is going to be susceptible to some ugly stretches, so strap in. 

While few players have outproduced Wallner in the past two seasons, even fewer have struck out more often. The 27-year-old has demonstrated an ability to outpace his sky-high K rate with stellar output, thanks to his consistently premium contact quality and ancillary on-base skills, but it will be a constant battle to maintain at this level.

Last year Wallner's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .389, second-highest out of the 324 MLB players who made 250 or more plate appearances. That number is unsustainable, and it fueled a .259 batting average that is frankly higher than anyone should expect going forward. The strikeouts are going to come in bunches and sometimes the hits are not going to fall in, which will likely lead to multiple slumps akin to last year's season-opening 2-for-25.

How will the team react? How will he react? Navigating these production droughts will be an important focus for Wallner and the Twins. On his end, the right fielder needs to make sure he's paying them off with corresponding hot streaks and game-changing moments on a fairly regular basis. He's proven he can do it.

THE BOTTOM LINE
As the post-Kepler era gets underway for the Twins in right field, there's an excellent candidate in place ready to take the reins: a strong-armed slugger capable of posting upper-echelon production at the plate. Wallner needs to walk the tightrope of maintaining strong numbers while striking out in more than a third of his plate appearances, and preventing pitchers from capitalizing on holes in his high-intensity swing.

At this point he's shown enough that there isn't much reason to doubt him, even during times where those inevitable dry spells are underway. I'll try to keep that in mind while they're happening.

Share your thoughts on the outlook at right field below and check out the rest of our Position Analysis Series:

• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Left Field
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Center Field

View full article

[Doctor Gast]

Last year was an extreme test on Wallner's ability to adjust & maintain his power. He past & IMO he came back as a better fielder from AAA, which has been a long time coming. I still don't like his SO rate hopefully he'll see the need to get better there. Thanks to Wallner we are solid in RF.

[mikelink45]

I am a believer.  I like his strong arm in RF which since Clemente has been recognized as a key to good fielding in that position.

[DJL44]

Strikeouts are fine for a leadoff hitter. There's nobody on base to advance with a groundout.

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

as a slow-running power threat

Matt Wallner isn't slow. His sprint speed is 55th percentile, or basically average. In fact, the only runners on the Twins who were faster than Wallner last season were Castro, Martin, Helman and Buxton. He's a step faster than Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/142?view=statcast&nav=running&season=2024

If you're looking for a slow runner on the Twins roster, it's Brooks Lee.

[MinnInPa]

i'll start believing when that K rate drops below 25% . that goes for all our K kings.. it just takes away the enjoyment of the game watching these guys flail away at ball out of the zone and then watch strike 3 go by. This team is going no where until they cut down on the K's

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

i'll start believing when that K rate drops below 25% .

That's not going to happen for Wallner. His approach will never lead to a below-average strikeout rate. Guess you'll never be a "believer".

[Otaknam]

Wallner had an “outstanding” season in 2024? He hit .259 in 223 at bats with 13 homers and 37 RBIs, which was solid but a small sample size. I think he is capable of 30/100, but let’s hold the accolades until he proves this over an entire season, hopefully in 2025.

[terrydactyls]

How can Wallner have a "consistently premium contact rate" and still have a 35% strikeout rate and be prone to extended slumps?  Seems contradictory to me.

[Twins GFP]

Many reasons to  be optimistic with Wallner, but currently still falls into the same category as Castro, Miranda, Larnach...  We need to see more of the same.  Maintain and/or grow, do not regress.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Strikeouts are fine for a leadoff hitter. There's nobody on base to advance with a groundout.

Matt Wallner isn't slow. His sprint speed is 55th percentile, or basically average. In fact, the only runners on the Twins who were faster than Wallner last season were Castro, Martin, Helman and Buxton. He's a step faster than Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/142?view=statcast&nav=running&season=2024

If you're looking for a slow runner on the Twins roster, it's Brooks Lee.

IMO sprint speed is deceiving. We need to know the distance they use in their calculations. We all know Wallner has very good top-end speed once he gets going but the fact is how long does it takes for him to get going. He doesn't have that quick burst of speed or instincts that a Brooks Lee has. I'm not trying to take away from Wallner's worth.

[rdehring]

Interesting, Nick, that your entire discussion was about his bat.  What the Twins are going to miss is Kepler's play in right field.  Will acknowledge that even Kepler didn't seem like himself out there at times last year.  Although he was one of my favorite Twin, I understand it was time for the Twins to move on.

The player I see out there is a big lumbering man who has almost zero quickness.  Yes, he has a cannon for an arm, however, there are a lot of balls he won't get to and others he will misplay.  Will his bat overcome those runs that will score because he didn't make a certain play.  Probably, but having him out there doesn't help the Twins improve their less than stellar defense.

So count me among those who can't wait to see EmRod and Jenkins arrive so Wallner can split his time between being a backup right fielder who gets most of his at bats as DH.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

i'll start believing when that K rate drops below 25% . that goes for all our K kings.. it just takes away the enjoyment of the game watching these guys flail away at ball out of the zone and then watch strike 3 go by. This team is going no where until they cut down on the K's

 

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

That's not going to happen for Wallner. His approach will never lead to a below-average strikeout rate. Guess you'll never be a "believer".

I can see it now as Wallner is making his acceptance speech in Canton, OH, having hit 800 career home runs and registered 150 career WAR. "My only regret is MinnInPA on the TwinsDaily forums never became a believer because I wasn't able to put up 7 consecutive seasons with a 1.200 OPS AND simultaneously get below 25% strike out rates. Both Aaron Judge and I were talking about that the other day. It was the happiest moment in Judge's life when he finished the 2024 season under a 25% K rate for the first time in his career. Sure, the MVP went to Judge in 2022, but it was hollow. His K rate was 25.1%. He'd never get MinnInPA's respect with half efforts like that."

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Strikeouts are fine for a leadoff hitter. There's nobody on base to advance with a groundout.

Matt Wallner isn't slow. His sprint speed is 55th percentile, or basically average. In fact, the only runners on the Twins who were faster than Wallner last season were Castro, Martin, Helman and Buxton. He's a step faster than Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/142?view=statcast&nav=running&season=2024

If you're looking for a slow runner on the Twins roster, it's Brooks Lee.

I think we all have a bias that says “big home run hitters aren’t fast”, which is kind of an old fashioned notion.   Interestingly, no one talks about Kepler’s slow 34th percentile speed, but Wallner at the 55th percentile is slow.  

I think he will be just fine out there defensively, with a throwing arm that can make a difference.  I also think that he is a slam dunk to out produce his predecessor offensively.  The depth behind him isn’t exciting, but it’s certainly enough to put the position into reasonable hands.  

[Major League Ready]

Why isn't Rodriguez listed among the prospects.  Baseball Savant grades his arm at 60.  If Rodriquez makes the team at some point this year, I would think Wallner and Larnach are going to DH and Larnach is a slightly better defender at least by my eye.

[Mike Sixel]

Just let the man play. He's going to hit. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO sprint speed is deceiving. We need to know the distance they use in their calculations. We all know Wallner has very good top-end speed once he gets going but the fact is how long does it takes for him to get going. He doesn't have that quick burst of speed or instincts that a Brooks Lee has. I'm not trying to take away from Wallner's worth.

Here's where Wallner ranks amongst all MLB players last year in 5 ft splits. He's above average at every single one.

Here's where Brooks Lee ranked. Well below average at every distance. 

Agreed Wallner doesn't have the instincts of Lee, but he's a far better athlete and far faster from the first 5 feet to 90 feet.

[Linus]

While we all would like to be faster rather than slower I think route running is just as important. There are fast outfielders that take poor routes thereby negating their speed and vice versa.  This is the area Wallner needs to improve the most.

[PopRiveter]

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Here's where Wallner ranks amongst all MLB players last year in 5 ft splits. He's above average at every single one.

Here's where Brooks Lee ranked. Well below average at every distance. 

Agreed Wallner doesn't have the instincts of Lee, but he's a far better athlete and far faster from the first 5 feet to 90 feet.

As a streamer who hasn't been able to watch many games the last few seasons, I would have assumed Wallner was slow and lumbering. This is really enlightening and changes my notion of what kind of player he really is. Thanks for sharing!

[tony&rodney]

A couple of years ago (2023) Wallner looked really rough in the outfield. I'm not so sure he has made much improvement but I feel like I'm getting used to his play. Either way, if Wallner doesn't mash his time out there will be abbreviated because both of the young guys (Jenkins, Rodriguez) can play outfield. It comes down to the bat.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

How can Wallner have a "consistently premium contact rate" and still have a 35% strikeout rate and be prone to extended slumps?  Seems contradictory to me.

What you quoted is not what was actually written so maybe that's the cause for confusion.

Consistently premium contact quality. Avg exit velo, barrel %, hard-hit%, sweet-spot % ... all top tier. Thus he can be expected to have better results relative to a typical hitter when he does put the ball in play. Albeit not a .390 BABIP.

[LambchoP]

If Wallner can learn to keep his strikeout rate at a manageable level, I could see a 30 HR season for him no problem. One big plus about Wallner is he seems like a tough and durable guy. Twins need more players like that who can remain healthy and on the field throughout the season.

[Twins GFP]

4 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

i'll start believing when that K rate drops below 25% . that goes for all our K kings.. it just takes away the enjoyment of the game watching these guys flail away at ball out of the zone and then watch strike 3 go by. This team is going no where until they cut down on the K's

In a bubble we can complain about K-Rate, but the game has changed in the last 10 years where higher K-rates have become acceptable.  Trading OBP for Slugging % is the norm.

If Wallner were to get his K-Rate to 25% and maintain his other stats, we would be talking about a top 10 player in baseball.  I would be happy if Wallner just got his K-Rate down to the low 30s.

 

[jmlease1]

I feel pretty good with Wallner as the starter. The power is incredible, and he makes enough contact for it to pay out. While it would be great if he could get better jumps on the ball in RF, he's good enough out there and the arm is definitely a weapon. He's not going to get as much credit for it, because there's not really a stat for bases stopped because the runner was smart enough not to test Wallner's arm and didn't go for the leg double or first to third on a single or something. Runners seem to already know he's got a cannon out there, so if he's fielding the ball cleanly they're not going to run the risk.

The K's aren't fun, but the light tower power makes it worth it. He's been a good RF. He's going to have a stretch or two that will be ugly, but he's also shown that he doesn't expand the zone too much even when he's struggling, which is the sign of a disciplined hitter.

The depth right now isn't great? Larnach can certainly play there (I would assume that they would slide him over rather than waste Bader in RF), but there's not a lot of natural RF guys in the wings if Wallner goes down. Fortunately, he appears to be made out of oak?

Wallner has been very productive. Hopefully we can get a full season of that.

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

He's not going to get as much credit for it, because there's not really a stat for bases stopped because the runner was smart enough not to test Wallner's arm and didn't go for the leg double or first to third on a single or something. Runners seem to already know he's got a cannon out there, so if he's fielding the ball cleanly they're not going to run the risk.

Wallner does have a cannon and he is also pretty accurate. There is a hitch though that still needs further correction. Wallner is pretty slow on his transfer and release, partially negating the arm. In fact, teams that run (Cleveland being one) do not hesitate on Wallner. It is something Matt has to refine to stop guys like Kwan and Ramirez going first to third. Scoring from second base is usually the secondary plus the read of the batted ball by the base runner. Guys thrown out at the plate are usually testing an inconsistent outfielder. I do believe Wallner could improve quite a bit this season in RF knowing he is counted on to be a full time regular.

[Althebum82]

I can see it now as Wallner is making his acceptance speech in Canton, OH, having hit 800 career home runs and registered 150 career WAR. "My only regret is MinnInPA on the TwinsDaily forums never became a believer because I wasn't able to put up 7 consecutive seasons with a 1.200 OPS AND simultaneously get below 25% strike out rates.

Will someone please notify the McKinley Resting Place that Matt Wallner is planning to make an acceptance speech someday down the road?

[ashbury]

Surely Rocco meant concrete, not cement, when talking about Wallner's bone strength. Cement is brittle. Concrete is what's strong.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

I can see it now as Wallner is making his acceptance speech in Canton, OH, having hit 800 career home runs and registered 150 career WAR. "My only regret is MinnInPA on the TwinsDaily forums never became a believer because I wasn't able to put up 7 consecutive seasons with a 1.200 OPS AND simultaneously get below 25% strike out rates. Both Aaron Judge and I were talking about that the other day. It was the happiest moment in Judge's life when he finished the 2024 season under a 25% K rate for the first time in his career. Sure, the MVP went to Judge in 2022, but it was hollow. His K rate was 25.1%. He'd never get MinnInPA's respect with half efforts like that."

"Canton?"

 

Also, Waller just turned 27 last December.  He has 29 career HR.  I wonder who holds the record for most home runs in a career, with just 29 of them through his age-26 season.

[NYCTK]

Matt Wallner is, indeed, a very, very bad OF. His OF jumps are amongst the worst, if not THE worst, in the entire league. Of 180 OF that played at least 10 balls, he covered the least ground, tied with a DH. In 2023 he was 178/181 OF beating out 2 players that teams rightfully have moved to DH, and a player that decided to hang em up. 

His arm doesn't make up for all of that, but it does help make it a bit more acceptable. 

Obviously his power is the reason he's in the majors. But with that K-rate there WILL be extremely bad stretches. There will be 2-3 week periods where he's hitting under .100. But there will also be week-long stretches where his bat alone wins games. 

He's going to be very frustrating, but should be somewhere in the 2.5-3.0 WAR range at the end of the year. I'm actually encouraged to see his K-rate at 25% in spring, a nice improvement from the 39% he showed last spring training which obviously foretold a very, very rough start to the season. 

 

[Riverbrian]

I'm already making plans to draft Wallner in my fantasy league in rounds earlier then he is projected to go. 

If I don't get him in that league... I'm going to join an auction league just to draft him at a higher dollar amount than his listed value. 

If I don't get him in either of those leagues... I will join a fantasy hockey league and figure out how to draft him in that sport. 

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

"Canton?"

 

Also, Waller just turned 27 last December.  He has 29 career HR.  I wonder who holds the record for most home runs in a career, with just 29 of them through his age-26 season.

You taking the 800 career HRs and 150 career WAR seriously... Perhaps you also believe Aaron Judge's biggest concern is a poster on TwinsDaily's respect, too? LOL