Minnesota Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Center Field

Only once prior to last year had Byron Buxton played more 100 games in a major-league season. That was back in 2017, when he was 23 years old. Since then, the outfielder has spent nearly every offseason rehabbing or recovering from a malady of some sort, leading to skepticism each spring about how much the Twins can rely on him to be available.

Sadly, that skepticism has proven to be well warranted. And the injury clouds will inevitably keep looming over Buxton given his history. But for a change, he is coming off a healthy offseason and entered camp with no limitations. This might be our last, best chance to see Buxton perform as a superstar center fielder. 

TWINS CENTER FIELDERS AT A GLANCE

Starter: Byron Buxton
Backup: Harrison Bader
Depth: Willi Castro, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
Prospects: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brandon Winokur

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 6th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 4th out of 30

THE GOOD
Since 2019, Buxton ranks third among all major-league center fielders in fWAR (14.9), despite the fact that he has constantly dealt with injuries. In 2024, he was top-10 at the position while barely eclipsing 100 games. On a rate basis, Buxton is measurably one of the biggest difference-makers in baseball, at center field or any other position for that matter. 

His resurgent campaign last year saw Buxton return to playing center field while posting a 137 OPS+ with 27 doubles and 18 home runs in 388 plate appearances. He fully embraced his strength as an aggressive, pull-heavy power hitter and posted premium contact metrics across the board. Buxton's athleticism remained exceptional at age 30; he swings harder and throws harder than a majority of MLB players, and still runs faster than all but a few.

Last month, on February 22nd, the Twins played their first official spring game against the Atlanta Braves. Buxton was in the lineup, batting third, playing center field. It sent a message that all the positive talk about his healthy offseason and renewed mindset entering camp wasn't just lip service. Buxton is ready to go and he's having an excellent spring, with a .917 OPS and more walks than strikeouts. He's even stolen a couple bases, including third, which he's never done before in a game.

Regardless of current optimism levels, it is understood by everyone that Buxton's status can change at any moment. The team still needs to plan around his absence, Even in his second-healthiest season ever the Twins had to find another starter for 77 games in center field. Recognizing this, the front office made Harrison Bader its biggest offseason acquisition, signing the veteran outfielder to a $6.25 million contract last month.

Bader might be the most sound and sturdy contingency plan the Twins have had in center during Buxton's entire career. He's akin to Michael A. Taylor – a former Gold Glover who brings speed to the outfield and base paths – but he's younger at age 30 and has a moderately better record of hitting than Taylor did, albeit not lately. 

The players who were primary backup options last year – Willi Castro, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. – now represent additional layers of depth after Bader. If Buxton were to go down, the concept of a semi-platoon between Bader and Keirsey could be interesting, and there remains hope that Martin could end up being a dependable option out there.

Down on the farm, all three of Minnesota's top prospects can handle center field, with two of them (Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez) playing there almost exclusively so far in their pro careers. The future is bright.

THE BAD
We may be reaching the final stage of Byron Buxton's career as a center fielder. He still rated reasonably well at the position last year, but as Matthew Trueblood shared late in the season, there are signs that Buxton's days at the position may be numbered, with metrics trending in the wrong direction.

"Buxton's body has broken down and his athleticism has faded, even at age 30," Matthew wrote. "This December, he'll turn 31, and his defense is in decline."

FanGraphs graded Buxton as barely above average defensively last year, and as the article pointed out, some range-based stats actually viewed him as below average. I don't think anyone who watched Buxton would describe his performance in the field as bad, but he definitely missed a number of plays that he would've been made in the past. 

That's no knock on Buck. Age and injuries take a toll. He's entering his 11th year in the majors. At some point his ability to excel in center field was going to dry up. Maybe we're getting there now.

The team no doubt plans to use Buxton at designated hitter with some frequency this year, and that played a role in the decision to invest in Bader. I do wonder, in the event Bader looks significantly better defensively or Buxton's knee starts barking again, if the Twins might elect to shift toward something closer to the arrangement they had in 2023.  

Spending most of his time at DH would somewhat reduce the value of Buxton's impact with the bat, but might improve his chances of staying in the lineup, and the Twins have put themselves in a position where they can still feature stellar defense in center field when he's not out there. That said, too much Bader against right-handed pitching would be a notable negative for an offense that needs to improve.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Center field is pretty easily the Twins organization's strongest non-pitching position. They have a superstar-caliber starter, a starting-caliber backup, and premier top prospects quickly rising through the minors. The idea of Buxton potentially reaching the end of his time as a center fielder makes me sad, but the team is well prepared to confront that eventuality. 

Share your thoughts on the outlook at center field below and check out the rest of our Position Analysis Series:

• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Left Field