Minnesota Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Center Field

[Nick Nelson]

For the first time in many years, there is cause for genuine, unfettered optimism around Byron Buxton heading into the season. With that being the case, Minnesota's top-tier projection in center field seems legit and achievable.

Image courtesy of Jonah Hinebaugh via Imagn Images

Only once prior to last year had Byron Buxton played more 100 games in a major-league season. That was back in 2017, when he was 23 years old. Since then, the outfielder has spent nearly every offseason rehabbing or recovering from a malady of some sort, leading to skepticism each spring about how much the Twins can rely on him to be available.

Sadly, that skepticism has proven to be well warranted. And the injury clouds will inevitably keep looming over Buxton given his history. But for a change, he is coming off a healthy offseason and entered camp with no limitations. This might be our last, best chance to see Buxton perform as a superstar center fielder. 

TWINS CENTER FIELDERS AT A GLANCE

Starter: Byron Buxton
Backup: Harrison Bader
Depth: Willi Castro, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
Prospects: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brandon Winokur

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 6th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 4th out of 30

THE GOOD
Since 2019, Buxton ranks third among all major-league center fielders in fWAR (14.9), despite the fact that he has constantly dealt with injuries. In 2024, he was top-10 at the position while barely eclipsing 100 games. On a rate basis, Buxton is measurably one of the biggest difference-makers in baseball, at center field or any other position for that matter. 

 

His resurgent campaign last year saw Buxton return to playing center field while posting a 137 OPS+ with 27 doubles and 18 home runs in 388 plate appearances. He fully embraced his strength as an aggressive, pull-heavy power hitter and posted premium contact metrics across the board. Buxton's athleticism remained exceptional at age 30; he swings harder and throws harder than a majority of MLB players, and still runs faster than all but a few.

Last month, on February 22nd, the Twins played their first official spring game against the Atlanta Braves. Buxton was in the lineup, batting third, playing center field. It sent a message that all the positive talk about his healthy offseason and renewed mindset entering camp wasn't just lip service. Buxton is ready to go and he's having an excellent spring, with a .917 OPS and more walks than strikeouts. He's even stolen a couple bases, including third, which he's never done before in a game.

Regardless of current optimism levels, it is understood by everyone that Buxton's status can change at any moment. The team still needs to plan around his absence, Even in his second-healthiest season ever the Twins had to find another starter for 77 games in center field. Recognizing this, the front office made Harrison Bader its biggest offseason acquisition, signing the veteran outfielder to a $6.25 million contract last month.

Bader might be the most sound and sturdy contingency plan the Twins have had in center during Buxton's entire career. He's akin to Michael A. Taylor – a former Gold Glover who brings speed to the outfield and base paths – but he's younger at age 30 and has a moderately better record of hitting than Taylor did, albeit not lately. 

 

The players who were primary backup options last year – Willi Castro, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. – now represent additional layers of depth after Bader. If Buxton were to go down, the concept of a semi-platoon between Bader and Keirsey could be interesting, and there remains hope that Martin could end up being a dependable option out there.

Down on the farm, all three of Minnesota's top prospects can handle center field, with two of them (Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez) playing there almost exclusively so far in their pro careers. The future is bright.

THE BAD
We may be reaching the final stage of Byron Buxton's career as a center fielder. He still rated reasonably well at the position last year, but as Matthew Trueblood shared late in the season, there are signs that Buxton's days at the position may be numbered, with metrics trending in the wrong direction.

"Buxton's body has broken down and his athleticism has faded, even at age 30," Matthew wrote. "This December, he'll turn 31, and his defense is in decline."

FanGraphs graded Buxton as barely above average defensively last year, and as the article pointed out, some range-based stats actually viewed him as below average. I don't think anyone who watched Buxton would describe his performance in the field as bad, but he definitely missed a number of plays that he would've been made in the past. 

That's no knock on Buck. Age and injuries take a toll. He's entering his 11th year in the majors. At some point his ability to excel in center field was going to dry up. Maybe we're getting there now.

The team no doubt plans to use Buxton at designated hitter with some frequency this year, and that played a role in the decision to invest in Bader. I do wonder, in the event Bader looks significantly better defensively or Buxton's knee starts barking again, if the Twins might elect to shift toward something closer to the arrangement they had in 2023.  

Spending most of his time at DH would somewhat reduce the value of Buxton's impact with the bat, but might improve his chances of staying in the lineup, and the Twins have put themselves in a position where they can still feature stellar defense in center field when he's not out there. That said, too much Bader against right-handed pitching would be a notable negative for an offense that needs to improve.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Center field is pretty easily the Twins organization's strongest non-pitching position. They have a superstar-caliber starter, a starting-caliber backup, and premier top prospects quickly rising through the minors. The idea of Buxton potentially reaching the end of his time as a center fielder makes me sad, but the team is well prepared to confront that eventuality. 

Share your thoughts on the outlook at center field below and check out the rest of our Position Analysis Series:

• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Left Field

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[DJL44]

It looks like Buxton will maintain his range long enough to keep the position until Walker Jenkins takes over. He has enough bat to take RF and provide Kepler-level defense for a couple seasons before the contract ends.

[mikelink45]

I will be delighted if Buxton stays healthy and stays in the field, but reading the essay I find it a little less optimistic than I would like if this is the best position we have - you note that Buxton's range and defense seem on decline and he might be DH a lot - that is not good news.  Then we have Bader fielding the position, but his bat is in decline. 

And behind him I have no faith in Martin, Castro is a good utility player but not a full time CF option.  Keirsey is the only one listed that seems to project both Bat and glove - I would take him over Bader but I know the team will not.

So let's just hope the metrics are off and our eyes tell us a better story with Buxton in CF for more than 100 games. 

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I will be delighted if Buxton stays healthy and stays in the field, but reading the essay I find it a little less optimistic than I would like if this is the best position we have - you note that Buxton's range and defense seem on decline and he might be DH a lot - that is not good news.  Then we have Bader fielding the position, but his bat is in decline. 

And behind him I have no faith in Martin, Castro is a good utility player but not a full time CF option.  Keirsey is the only one listed that seems to project both Bat and glove - I would take him over Bader but I know the team will not.

So let's just hope the metrics are off and our eyes tell us a better story with Buxton in CF for more than 100 games. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez projects with both bat and glove. He might already be better than Keirsey at both.

[PatPfund]

I'm glad for the AAA support, because Bader hasn't been much more durable than Buxton, and his defensive metrics are in decline as well (not surprising since they are pretty close in age). I'm pretty sure we'll have an April Saint starting several games out there this year, but the options are so much better than the Celestino Era.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I will be delighted if Buxton stays healthy and stays in the field, but reading the essay I find it a little less optimistic than I would like if this is the best position we have - you note that Buxton's range and defense seem on decline and he might be DH a lot - that is not good news.  Then we have Bader fielding the position, but his bat is in decline. 

And behind him I have no faith in Martin, Castro is a good utility player but not a full time CF option.  Keirsey is the only one listed that seems to project both Bat and glove - I would take him over Bader but I know the team will not.

So let's just hope the metrics are off and our eyes tell us a better story with Buxton in CF for more than 100 games. 

If Buxton, who seems healthier than usual, falters; then we have Bader, who at worst is a defensive specialist.  That in an of itself is better than any arrangement we’ve had in recent memory.  Remember, when we had MAT, he was supposed to be a backup, not a fulltime starter, even though it is likely the front office knew that Buxton’s health was more in doubt than they let on.  The other guys on the table (Castro, Martin, Keirsey) are down at #3 on the depth chart without factoring in the projections of the prospects (Rodriguez, Walker).  If injuries or ineffectiveness wipe out our first two options, we still have a lot in the dugout to replace them.  That is probably not true for most of the other positions on the team.  

[Doctor Gast]

I am grateful for any amount of time that Buck can give us in CF. Last season he gave us over 100 games; the 1st non-rehab offseason in a long time gives me optimism that he could give us record games this season. He's trending the right way, healthwise. Buck is a good hitter but his fielding & baserunning gets me excited.

Last season (RH) Margot was supposed be our 2nd CFer but he was terrible, so Martin had to become our 2nd CFer & blocked our true 2nd CFer, Keirsey. Even though they obtained (RH) Bader, (LH) Keirsey should sub Buck against all RHPs that Buck sits out. With our MLB & MiLB CF depth, IMO Martin isn't needed at CF or even OF & he can be better served at 2B.

CF is by far our best position.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

I'm glad for the AAA support, because Bader hasn't been much more durable than Buxton, and his defensive metrics are in decline as well (not surprising since they are pretty close in age). I'm pretty sure we'll have an April Saint starting several games out there this year, but the options are so much better than the Celestino Era.

Last year he was in the 92nd percentile in fielding run value.  In 2023 he was 93rd percentile.  I think we will be just fine with that kind of decline.

[Mike Sixel]

I know I'm alone in this, but if someone would trade for Buxton, I'm all in. You can't build a team around a guy that rarely plays. I wish he'd stayed healthy, he's so good..... So exciting....

[Brandon]

Buxton has a few more seasons in CF in him.  His speed still grades out.  I imagine he is holding up a little in CF to keep from getting injured yet again.  He is probably finding a balance.  I bet he picks up some this year and is a better defensive CF this year than last.

[bean5302]

The Twins are in a good spot for CF in my opinion. I've noticed there's a serious dearth of MiLB talent at the CF position. More and more teams seem to be trying to shoehorn questionable grade defenders into the position favoring bat over defense.

[DocBauer]

It was an absolute pleasure to watch a "healthy" Buxton last season. (Unfortunately, he has a different scale for being healthy). At times, you almost forget how good he really is. 

In baseball, EVERYTHING is measured. But some of those measurements say different things. When I watched his defense last year, I saw a Buxton that might have been half a step lower than when younger, still tremendous speed. I saw a handful of plays that the younger, more reckless version of himself might have dove for, or crashed in to a wall, but didn't. I'm OK with a little more self preservation from him. My eye test said he was still a very good CF.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but when he missed some time later in the season, wasn't it flare up of his hip, that has bothered him at times? His knee isn't perfect, and never will be again. But with a healthy finish to the year, and a healthy offseason, might other parts of his body just be stronger and healthier now? Do we dare dream of 120 total games??

Rodriguez and Jenkins have the overall speed and athleticism to handle CF in the future from all reports. Yasser Mercedes should have been listed amongst the prospects as well. He had a really solid, healthy 2024 and is a potential 4 tool player from all accounts I've read, power being average so far. But he's a good 3 years away.

Also probably 2-3 years away is Winokur. With his speed and long frame, he could add a little muscle without losing speed. While still raw, he held his own in 2024 for such a young kid, and showed continued improvement. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in CF at some point, while being flanked by Rodriguez and Jenkins.

[minman1982]

Just imagine what 10 seasons of 150 games each would look like for a guy with Buxton's talent. He wouldn't be with the Twins right now but that would have been fun to watch.