Minnesota Twins 2025 Position Analysis: First Base

Oofda!

Not good on paper.

Perhaps that's where Lewis eventually winds up and holds the position down for the next decade or so. But until then, I'm hoping Miranda wins the job and plays well. Definitely surprised that France would be announced as the starter so early on in camp.

Preseason rank of 22 should be easy to improve on IF France and Miranda stay healthy.  We all know France was an Allstar and Miranda can be incredible when he is healthy. 
The downside is all about injury. No Injury, they both ops+ about 120 over the season.  That takes care of 1B for 2025. Someday, someone will seize the position for several years. Right now we have 2 plausible options. Hopefully thats the only depth we need over 162+ games. 

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Although playing first base is "not that hard" according to Billy Beane (Ron Washington disagrees), it is a position where reps matter.

It does take some ability. It takes good feet and good hands to play first base. Hatteberg was a catcher. A catcher needs good hands, good feet and a good arm. After Hatteberg hurt his arm he still had the feet and hands. He still needed lots of reps but he brought some ability with his hands and feet.

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not all that worried about 1B. If Miranda can stay healthy I think he hits. He's hit very well in the majors whenever he's healthy. Whether or not he can stay healthy is my only concern for him (super weird on this roster, I know). I really liked France a couple years ago and actually stated on this very site that I thought the Twins should go get him last year as a good bounce back candidate. He didn't bounce back. Was it just the heal or is he truly in decline? I don't like the low value veteran contracts the Twins hand out as a core part of their team building strategy, but if France can bounce back some he's a decent enough player with a ceiling of really good bat if he totally comes back. Wouldn't bet on that, but the possibility is there.

As for the other options/prospects, pick a player. They're all options. It's the bottom of the defensive spectrum. No, I'm not saying that that means it doesn't matter or defense doesn't matter or that it's super easy to be good there or whatever, but it is the easiest defensive position to fill. Meaning you need the least amount of athletic ability/tools to fill it. You don't need to be fast or have a good arm or any of the stuff you need (or at least really want) at the other positions. I don't like the idea of Lewis moving over there at all. Waste of his athleticism and arm (just fix his throwing motion and get him more accurate with his throws). Don't like Keaschall, Castro, Correa, Buxton, Emma, Jenkins, etc. types there either. Waste of all their athleticism and skills. But pick any of our many questionable defenders and put them there. Larnach or Wallner or Julien, anyone. And if you've filled the other 7 spots (non-catchers) with the athletic types with good arms then put the 8th athletic guy at 1B.

Not having a big time 1B prospect isn't terrible. It generally just means you don't have a guy with a huge bat and no real defensive skills (or he's a slow lefty thrower you don't want in the OF). The Twins have some big bat prospects that could be plopped there if they wanted to, but, despite the cries of mismanagement on this site, moving guys down the spectrum as they advance through the system and the needs of your team change and their ability to field other spots becomes more clear is what every MLB team does because it's the smart thing to do. Maybe Kala'i Rosario or Rayne Doncon or Billy Amick or Gabriel Gonzalez have things click with their bats and are the 1B of the future because they aren't good enough defenders elsewhere to beat out the other guys on the depth chart. Every prospect that can hit is a 1B prospect.

Total agreement.  This rush to move athletic guys to first is asset mismanagement.  The current problem is we need to develop another couple bats so there is somebody to move there is Miranda somehow fails.

Yes, NIck, good question.  Expect it will be answered in spring training.  Or not.  Have thought for some time the biggest need the Twins had was a young catcher who would grow into #2 or #1A. 

Beginning to think that a young first baseman who can hit and play good D may be the new #1.

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But pick any of our many questionable defenders and put them there. Larnach or Wallner or Julien, anyone.

I don’t believe it is a position any major leaguer can play. I think most infielders and catchers bring passable ability with their hands and feet to play 1B so maybe Julien can play passably there. I don’t know if Larnach or Wallner have the necessary tools to play a passable 1B. For some reason they made it through college and the minors without ever getting time at the position. This is a position in which their minor league managers often played 8 or 9 guys over the season. Failing to give Larnach and Wallner a look there could not have been an oversight.

The defensive end, or lack of, will cost the team outs and runs.  The offense France and Miranda brings won’t offset the above. A 1-year Rizzo deal might have been the way to go as much as hated it when brought up earlier hear. 

Well, I sure hope something works out because the options are either Miranda hits a ton or the Twins are below mediocre at first base. First base is down the defensive spectrum precisely because arm, level of range, and expected athleticism is less necessary. However, footwork and good hands along with quick decision making is important. Yesterday we saw a play that may be reflective of how the Twins run cutoffs or just a mistake. A base hit to left field with the runner coming home. On the play the third baseman immediately went to a cut position as opposed to the first baseman getting there. It looked intentional. There was no way for the shortstop to beat the runner to third base and get in position to take a throw so the left fielder threw to the plate and both runners moved up. Looks like a gaff by LF but I'm marking that down to the 3B/1B decision. Can't throw to third when no one is there. An experienced good outfielder just lobs it in to second base. The Twins are pretty specific in their designs and choose their players, thus the apparent weakness at first base seems like a natural conclusion. Miranda could save the day by hitting .300.

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Who were the 8 or 9 guys that played there? Minor league filler? Even worse defenders than Larnach and Wallner? Larnach and Wallner were high picks and were going to get every opportunity to earn a job in the Twins outfield.

When Larnach was in AA Pensacola in 2019 the Twins played Kirilloff some at 1B though he played more in the outfield. Pensacola played 9 players at 1B that year. Four of them have played in the majors. The 2021 Saints used 11 players at 1B. Eight have them have played in the majors. Larnach didn’t get a single game at 1B either year. Why?

While I believe most major leaguers have tools to play 1B, there have been enough mediocre corner outfielder that have never put on a first base glove to lead me to believe that not everyone can play a passable 1B. It is possible to be a slow defender with a big bat and still have soft hands. I don’t agree at all with your choice of “dumping grounds”. I have too much respect for anyone who has made their way to the majors to characterize any role on the team as a dumping ground. 

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols came up as LFers and got moved around to multiple positions (RF, 3B, and 1B) as young players before moving over to 1B permanently.

Cabrera began his career in the minors as a SS and moved to 3B and then the outfield. Pujols played 3B in the minors almost exclusively.

I need to be more clear. I wonder about a player who played exclusively corner outfield in college and the minors was never given a game at first base. My conclusion is that there are some tools necessary to play a passable major league 1B and not every player possesses those tools.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Who were the 8 or 9 guys that played there? Minor league filler? Even worse defenders than Larnach and Wallner? Larnach and Wallner were high picks and were going to get every opportunity to earn a job in the Twins outfield. People complain nonstop here that the Twins need to put guys in the position they're going to play in the majors and let them perfect it. That's what the Twins did with these 2. And it's what they should have done as the Twins outfield has had openings for years and getting these guys prepared to fill them was the obvious decision.

But when the landscape of the team changes players need to move. It happens all the time. Go look at the Padres' starting lineup and see how many guys changed positions in the majors. Shoot, their starting CFer had never played off the dirt until spring training last year and they handed him an opening day job as a 20-year-old in a new position. The Twins didn't need to move Larnach and Wallner in the minors, but if/when Emma and Jenkins (and even Keashall is an OF possibility) arrive Larnach and Wallner may not be the best options at their positions and they'd have to move. Fernando Tatis Jr moved from SS to RF in the majors despite never having played the OF in his minor league career. Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols came up as LFers and got moved around to multiple positions (RF, 3B, and 1B) as young players before moving over to 1B permanently. Mookie Betts played 36 innings in RF in AAA before moving to RF at the major league level because of the makeup of the Red Sox (he wasn't displacing Pedroia at 2B). 

I don't know if Julien, Larnach, Wallner, or any of the minor league guys I named can be studs, average, passable, or what at 1B, but 1B has long been the dumping ground for slow defenders with big bats that get pushed out of corner OF spots. MLB players get moved onto and off the dirt all the time. Including some of the biggest stars the game as ever seen. Bryce Harper moved from RF to 1B. Spencer Steer has moved all over for Cinci, including 1B despite just 17 innings there in the minors. 

Moving random guys to 1B is something every team does. And have been doing forever. Moving players around as needed to give them the best team they can is something every team does. And have been doing forever. Larnach and Wallner are athletic dudes. I'd bet they can learn to play 1B at a passable level.

Wallner has the athletic mobility of Lurch.

I'm concerned about 1B, because I think the Twins are likely to give France a lot of reps there, and I just don't know if he can be good enough. I'm sure the heel injury was a real issue for him last season, but his respectable OPS before the injury was mostly because of a hot May; he started pretty slowly and the .646 OPS in Mar/Apr has nothing to do with injury. He was awful in Jun/Jul, decent in august, and bad again in sept/oct.  blaming it all on the heel might be letting France off too easily, especially since he wasn't all that good in 2023 and didn't have any injury excuses. Given how the Twins have treated veterans in the past, will France get too much rope if he sucks? i fear he will, even if Miranda is knocking the cover off the ball.

I'd rather roll with Miranda as the primary: the hitting upside is simply higher, and the defense isn't likely to be any worse (and could improve if Miranda can get coached up a bit, become more familiar/comfortable there, etc). But Miranda does need to show that he can stay healthy through a full season and be impactful.

Miranda didn't have any health problems until they said 3B is yours in '23. Miranda has an average arm IMO to get his arm up to MLB level, he overdid it. Coming to spring training with a wrecked shoulder. '24 he was doing great while at 1B/ DH. Even though healthy Santana was horrible at the plate, Baldelli declared him as a full-time 1Bman. Larnach hurt his toe, so to keep Miranda's bat in the lineup they moved Miranda to 3B. Not long afterward Miranda hurt his back (the back is part of the throwing process). His production took a dive. So when healthy Miranda is great, so the secret here is to keep him healthy by keeping him at 1B/ DH. Not play him at 3B like they did with DET.

France has had many years at 1B & he's still terrible. So common sense should tell us that we need to invest in the long-term Miranda to develop his potential & not in short-term undevelopable glove of France at 1B. I'm all for France to have a good season at DH & help out at 1B but not as the primary 1B.

Just one slight edit to help: "Well, here in 2025, 38 year old Santana has moved on as a free agent and 27 year old Kirilloff has retired."

I know he is in spring training again, but it sure seems generous to include Sabato as a prospect any more after four years in the system and struggling at AA level last year., his highest level of competition.

I, too, was taken aback by the instant proclamation of France's role as projected starter at this position.

Good analysis of a position that is sadly filled with a lot of options with shortcomings to start the year.

There seems to be a growing sentiment that Lewis is the Twins’ 1B of the future, but apparently he has to fail at 3B first. Why not save the wear and tear of trying to pound a square peg into a round, harder-to-field position and just put him at first now? Then we all can worry about who’s playing third, instead.