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One thing I really enjoy about writing for the audience here at Twins Daily is that we have a lot of smart, well informed readers who often challenge my thinking in ways that cause me to at least reconsider my views. One such example played out last week, when I shared a series of notes and thoughts on the offseason, and opined that first base is one of the clearest holes on the roster.
"José Miranda is not an option as primary starter, or shouldn't be," I argued. It was a sentiment that received pushback from several people in the comments. Their points were fair. And if I'm being honest, the odds of Miranda being Opening Day starter at first base are probably higher than I initially portrayed, so it's a subject worth exploring more deeply.
Let's break down the merits of José Miranda as Plan A at first base for 2025.
First, I'll outline the case against, in my mind. There are three factors that make it difficult for me to envision the Twins being comfortable with Miranda as their primary starter at first going into next season:
- He looked very bad defensively at first base as a rookie in 2022, and the team has shown little interest in playing him there since. Of his 182 games started between majors and minors the past two years, only 24 have been at first.
- The Twins NEED to get better in the field. It was a clear and critical flaw for their team this past season, biting them repeatedly at crucial moments. This factor compounds the shortcomings of Miranda defensively at first base, a position where I believe Rocco Baldelli and the Twins hold effective glovework to be of particularly high importance.
- Finally, it's just hard to feel super confident Miranda is going to hit. While he enjoyed a scorching midsummer hot streak in 2024, much like he did in 2022, he waned down the stretch and finished the year hurt. Miranda hit zero home runs in the second half and batted .196 in September.
This isn't meant as a long-term indictment on Miranda. He's still only 26. It's very possible he will eventually be a bat and glove that the Twins can fully trust at first base. But the reality is that up to this point he's played 286 games in the majors, making more than 1,000 plate appearances, and he has produced just 1.8 fWAR total.
For me, the idea of handing a guy in his situation the Opening Day starting job at first base, an offense-driven position where the Twins could really use some standout production, felt like a nonstarter. But plenty of people disagree, especially in light of the limited resources at play for the front office. So let's examine that side of the argument.
It's very possible that I'm exaggerating in my own mind Miranda's defensive deficiencies at first base. I know he was unequivocally terrible during his most extensive usage there in 2022, but that was then. Though we haven't had a chance to see him play a whole lot of first since, he's graded out better in the small sample, and it's plausible he's made strides behind the scenes as well.
Out of curiosity, I asked my followers on Twitter whether they'd be comfortable with Miranda as primary first baseman next year from a defensive perspective. To my surprise, the yeses outnumbered the nos by nearly two to one.
Even if Miranda isn't expected to be great first baseman, you can make the argument that first base is a position where being merely capable is fine. While you're involved in a lot of plays, a good majority of them are pretty routine. At 6-foot-2, he has the size to offer a solid target radius for infielders.
So let's talk about the bat. Clearly Miranda has the upside to profile as a quality hitter at first base, or even an elite one. It's just a question of how much he can be counted on to sustainably harness that ability. He had a .299/.340/.472 line heading into September last year. You'd happily take that at first, even when accompanied by mediocre defense. His final OPS+ of 112, even with the season-ending slump incorporated, represents the kind of above-average production you're looking for at a bat-first position. And Miranda has a .306/.363/.489 career slash line at Triple-A.
For a good portion of the season, Miranda was one of Minnesota's best hitters. His final numbers were dragged down by that late drop-off, which was clearly affected by injury. It's not overly optimistic to believe, or at least hope, the lower back strain will fully clear up during the offseason and he'll finally pull it all together at age 27 in 2025.
In fact, it's the sort of thing that the Twins front office has little choice but to put their faith in. At the end of the day, I think this is probably the most convincing argument to be made in favor of going with Miranda as first baseman in 2025. We can all acknowledge that ideally the team might add at least another Carlos Santana type stopgap so that they aren't entirely dependent on Miranda rebounding from his second half at the plate and holding his own defensively. But the Twins can't afford much in the way of luxuries.
Given ownership's financial impositions, the front office is going to really have to pick their battles in terms of where they can add and upgrade this offseason. I felt strongly that first base was one spot they'd prioritize over perhaps any other. I still feel that way to an extent, but after thinking it through more deeply, I can certainly give credence to the opposite view. Miranda is a talent worth betting on.
It's going to be interesting to track. Following the retirement of Alex Kirilloff, first base is among the most intriguing decision points on the roster this offseason.
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